2025 Draft Ranks: Wing Forwards, Tier 2
The Basketball Notebook is back for the 2025 NBA draft. Over the course of the next month, I’ll be releasing tiered rankings by position, culminating in a final overall big board in mid to late June.
Links to Previously Released Rankings:
On-Ball Guard (Tier 1) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 2) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 3) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 4)
Wing Guard (Tier 1) / Wing Guard (Tier 2) / Wing Guard (Tier 3) / Wing Guard (Tier 4)
Click here for a few important reminders about how I structure my rankings and write-ups.
TIER 2:
Carter Bryant / Arizona
Height/Wingspan: 6’8” / 7’0”
Rookie Season Age: 20
Player Type: Defensive Playmaker / Catch-and-Shoot Threat / Transition Athlete
Game Reminds Me Of: OG Anunoby / Ryan Dunn / Jalen Johnson
Bryant’s numbers from his freshman season at Arizona don’t jump off the screen. He started just five games for the veteran-laden Wildcats and averaged less than 20 minutes played per game. Nevertheless, Bryant is a tantalizing prospect because he offers clear high-level 3&D potential at a premium position.
Bryant was a complementary offensive player at Arizona (16.4% usage), and most of his scoring came as a play-finisher off of looks created by his teammates. Bryant is a fluid mover and an explosive athlete (39.5” max vertical leap), which makes him an effective cutter and lob-catcher along the baseline. Although he did very little on-ball initiation, he’s capable of putting the ball on the floor to attack closeouts. He plays on balance as a driver and is strong enough to out-muscle bigger defenders at the basket. Bryant averaged 1.42 points per shot attempt at the rim, which ranked in the 92nd percentile among Division I players. He also looks fairly fluid as a pull-up jump shooter from the mid-range, but he definitely needs more reps before it can be considered a true strength of his game.
Bryant made an acceptable 37.1% of his threes while attempting 5.3 per 36 minutes. He’s an aggressive shooter off the catch, but his form is a little stiff and his lower body mechanics can get thrown off when he doesn’t have time to fully set his feet. Notably, Bryant shot just 69.5% from the free throw line, and I wouldn’t consider him to be a natural sniper. However, his form is far from broken and it’s encouraging that he lets it fly with no hesitation. Early on in his career, I expect Bryant to be an average or slightly below-average shooter relative to his position. I think he’ll eventually work his way into being consistently in the 37-40% range from three, although I don’t anticipate him ever being a high-volume or self-created shooter.
Bryant had a tendency to try to do too much as a playmaker at Arizona, which led to a 15.5% turnover rate. Perhaps because his playing time was somewhat limited, he would often force the spectacular play instead of taking the simple one. Encouragingly, Bryant does have some passing chops. He sees cutters and divers well from the top of the key, and he also made some nice pocket passes to his bigs on the interior. Bryant looks to push with outlet and hit-ahead passes off his own defensive rebounds and consistently has his eyes up the floor. This led to some of his most egregious turnovers, but the instincts he shows on film provide a nice foundation to build upon.
The defensive end of the floor is where Bryant has a chance to be special. He’s very raw: He can get lost in the shuffle off the ball, and he gets baited into silly fouls by crafty scorers. At the same time, he was a big-time playmaker for Arizona, averaging 1.9 blocks and 1.8 steals per 36 minutes. Bryant consistently surprises jump shooters with his length and ability to close gaps quickly, which makes him very difficult to score over the top of. He also shows impressive feel as a secondary rim protector and has some highlight-reel blocks on film. He plays hard and in a stance, especially on the ball. He’s just ok at screen navigation right now, but his willingness to work on the defensive end and above-average foot speed makes me think he could develop into a primary matchup for on-ball guards as well as wings. His combination of size and speed makes him very difficult to get past in isolation. Bryant wants to block every shot and steal every dribble, which is going to make him a foul magnet as a rookie. If he can learn the finer points of NBA defense with age, he could grow into being one of the league’s best wing stoppers.
There’s a fair bit of projection involved in evaluating Bryant, but there’s also enough of a skills foundation that it’s hard to see him completely failing. Every NBA team needs wings who can defend multiple positions on the perimeter while making enough shots to maintain proper spacing on offense. Bryant clearly offers that upside, while also adding some juice as a cutter, transition finisher and secondary shot blocker.
Projected NBA Role: Quality Starter
NBA Upside: Priority Starter
Egor Demin / BYU
Height/Wingspan: 6’9 / 6’10”
Rookie Season Age: 19
Player Type: On-Ball Creator
Game Reminds Me Of: Franz Wagner / Joe Ingles / Mario Hezonja
A Russian native, Demin made the rare transition from the EuroLeague (Real Madrid) to Division I. It was an up-and-down year for him at BYU, as he put up some big numbers but also struggled with inconsistency and inefficiency.
Demin was BYU’s lead creator and a dominant on-ball presence: 43.6% of his possessions came as a pick-and-roll ball handler (98th percentile frequency rate). He has a solid understanding of how to use ball screens to get himself open, and he uses his size to his advantage given that he’s typically being defended by smaller players. While he’s an above-average ball handler for a forward, his ability to create space in pure isolation is limited by his physical profile. He’s not an explosive mover, so he’s reliant on playing a methodical style. When Demin is able to get near the basket, he’s a skilled finisher with both hands. However, he’s not a huge leaper (32” vert) and his footwork in the paint is nothing special. Demin only drew fouls at a 10.9% rate at BYU, an uninspiring number. Demin is an aggressive shooter off the dribble, and he has a fluid, high release. I expect him to gradually improve his ability to score from the mid-range, but he shot just 27.3% on off-dribble two-point jumpers this past season.
In general, Demin’s viability as a shooter is in the eye of the beholder. To me, everything about his mechanics and aggressiveness (6.1 attempts per 36 minutes) says he should be able to make shots at an adequate rate. BYU was seemingly content with him firing away both off the dribble and when running off handoffs and off-ball screens, two of the more difficult ways to generate threes. Unfortunately, the numbers tell a different story than the eye test, as Demin shot 27.3% from three overall. He made just 29.9% of his catch-and-shoot looks, 69.5% of his free throws, and 23.9% of his threes off the dribble. I’m projecting significant improvement for him as he continues to develop, but the ability to make self-created shots at a high rate is central to the theory of Demin as an on-ball player. I don’t think he’s a good enough athlete to make a living out of getting to the rim, so he has to get defenses to respect his ability to punish drop coverage.
Demin’s playmaking and passing ability is very real: He posted an elite 28.7% assist rate at BYU. He’s a very creative player, and his combination of size and ball handling ability allows him to access every angle on the court. This can also get him into trouble, as he turned the ball over way too much (22.3% rate). That number got even worse (26%) when Demin was working out of pick-and-roll, which is indicative of the limitations his inefficiency as a scorer puts on his passing. He can get sped up by ball pressure, and he also has a tendency to get caught leaving his feet once he gets in the paint. Demin’s best film as a playmaker comes in transition, where he ranked in the 95th percentile in terms of points per possession + assists (1.64). When he gets a free run at the basket in an advantage situation, Demin creates great shots.
You might see other analysts categorizing Demin as a guard, but the defensive end of the floor is why I have him ranked among the wing forwards. Demin is comfortable defending out on the perimeter, and he is willing to get in a stance and fight over screens. However, I’m skeptical of his lateral athleticism. Demin does a good job of using his length to bother smaller players, but he can be beaten with shiftiness and/or a quick first step. With his height, there’s no reason why he can’t defend forwards even if he’s playing more of a point or shooting guard role on the offensive end. Demin is a smart player off the ball, and he does a decent job of creating havoc in passing lanes and forcing turnovers (1.5 steals per 36 minutes). He may run into issues with speed and strength, but I think he can be a competent wing defender who holds his own in the majority of matchups.
Demin is one of the more difficult prospects for me to evaluate because so much depends on how much he is able to progress as a shot maker. If he becomes a player who makes self-created threes at a league-average rate, he could feasibly be the second or third best offensive player on a good to very good team. More likely, I think he makes incremental improvements but retains some of his inconsistencies, making him better suited to piloting a second unit.
Projected NBA Role: High-End Reserve
NBA Upside: Priority Starter
Noa Essengue / Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)
Height/Wingspan: 6’9” / 6’11” (Unofficial)
Rookie Season Age: 19
Player Type: Versatile Defender / Athletic Finisher
Game Reminds Me Of: Jonathan Isaac / Jeremy Sochan / Aaron Gordon
The latest French forward with a chance to be a lottery pick, Essengue has spent the ‘24-25 season with Ulm in Germany’s Basketball Bundesliga. He needs further development from both a skill and physical perspective, but he’s already a high-level defensive prospect with a chance for growth on the offensive end.
Essengue’s versatility as a scorer is limited, but he’s been efficient in a complementary role (62.1% true shooting). He covers a lot of ground with his stride and is a quick-twitch leaper, which makes him very effective as a cutter and roll man. Essengue is shooting 69.1% at the rim this season, and he’s racked up 75 dunks in 56 games played. He’s also drawing fouls at a ridiculous 26% rate, a clear indicator of how difficult his size and athleticism is to contain around the basket. Essengue has been an absolute monster in transition, averaging 1.43 points per transition possession (91st percentile efficiency) while shooting 78.3% from the field and getting to the line at a 33.9% rate. When he gets a head of steam in an advantage situation, defenders basically have to choose between fouling him or allowing a layup.
Ulm allows Essengue the occasional on-ball possession from the post or mid-post, but he’s nowhere near good enough of a ball handler to be running pick-and-roll or isolating from the wing. He’s not even really skilled enough to beat closeouts off the dribble unless he has a straight line to the basket. That being said, he has a good euro-step and he covers so much ground with his stride that he rarely needs to string multiple moves together. I think Essengue will be a capable second-side attacker, but he’ll need to get stronger and better with the ball once he’s playing against NBA size and athleticism on a nightly basis.
Essengue has struggled as a shooter with Ulm, converting just 27.6% of his threes. He’s not a high-volume guy either (2.9 attempts per 36 minutes), and opponents are very willing to sag off him and dare him to shoot when he’s spotted up on the perimeter. He has a slow release, and definitely needs to have his feet completely set for his shot to have a chance to go in. He’s just 3-20 on off-dribble jumpers this season: Self-creation from the mid-range or beyond the arc is not a part of his game. I don’t think Essengue’s shot is completely broken, and there’s a reasonable chance he turns into a league-average shooter off the catch. However, I’d be very surprised if he’s ever an asset as a floor spacer, even if he spends most of his minutes on offense at the four.
Essengue has a chance at high-level defensive impact. He moves his feet very well on the perimeter for his size, and he guards on the ball with intensity and effort. He’ll fight over the top of ball screens, and his length consistently creates issues for smaller offensive players. He’s a bit more susceptible to lateral quickness in isolation, which often leads to fouls. However, he’s got great recovery ability due to his physical tools, so he can afford to be aggressive once he learns to avoid unnecessary contact. On the interior, his lack of bulk shows up against more physical frontcourt players, but his instincts as a secondary rim protector are encouraging. Essengue can actually get caught sitting too far in gaps as a help defender, but as an NBA coach I’d rather work on reigning that in than teaching a player how to stay engaged off the ball.
Even if Essengue never becomes an NBA-caliber shooter, he’s enough of a threat around the rim to survive on offense as a cutter and finisher along the baseline. Combine that with his game-wrecking defensive versatility, and he’s an intriguing player who could be very valuable if surrounded by the right pieces. If he can develop into a capable offensive player from the perimeter, he could be a championship-level supporting piece.
Projected NBA Role: High-End Reserve
NBA Upside: Priority Starter