2025 Draft Ranks: Wing Guards, Tier 1
The Basketball Notebook is back for the 2025 NBA draft. Over the course of the next month, I’ll be releasing tiered rankings by position, culminating in a final overall big board in mid to late June.
Links to Previously Released Rankings: On-Ball Guard (Tier 1) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 2) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 3) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 4)
Click here for a few important reminders about how I structure my rankings and write-ups.
TIER 1:
V.J. Edgecombe / Baylor
Height/Wingspan: 6’5” / 6’7”
Rookie Season Age: 20
Player Type: Athletic Slasher / Secondary Scorer
Game Reminds Me Of: Shaedon Sharpe / Cam Whitmore / Jaylen Brown
A consensus five-star recruit coming out of high school, Edgecombe lived up to the hype by earning Rookie of the Year in the Big 12. His game needs refinement, but his star potential is unmatched among other players in this position group.
Edgecombe is an explosive athlete who plays way above the rim. When he gets a head of steam in transition, he’s difficult to keep from getting to the basket: He shot 65.6% from two-point range and was fouled on 20.7% of his transition possessions. In totality, he showed an impressive ability to get in the paint (44.4% of his field goal attempts came at the rim), but his finishing was underwhelming (44.5% shooting on 128 layup attempts). Edgecombe needs to work on his footwork and skill as a driver. His natural inclination is to fly at the rim full speed, which leads to some highlight dunks, but also a lot of inconsistency. Off the dribble, he shows good burst with his first step but his handle isn’t quite as tight as it needs to be. He creates separation with his athleticism rather than his skill, which is why he’s currently much better at attacking closeouts than creating in isolation or with a ball screen.
Although the overall numbers are middling (33.5% 3FG on 5.1 attempts per 36 minutes), I’m bullish on Edgecombe’s shot. He’s much better off the catch (36.4% 3FG) than off the dribble (20.0% 3FG), and I expect him to be a capable threat off the ball early on before eventually easing his way into more on-ball reps. Most encouragingly, Edgecombe flashes some intriguing movement shooting ability. Baylor frequently ran sets to get him the ball coming off of pin-downs and flare screens, and Edgecombe shot an excellent 10-21 (47.6%) on threes generated by off-ball screening actions.
Edgecombe’s passing numbers (16.9% assist rate, 3.5 assists per 36 minutes) are rock solid for this player type. I don’t expect him to ever be a truly value additive playmaker, but he’s capable of making basic reads as a pick-and-roll handler and driver. Edgecombe is a very effective cutter along the baseline and from the wings, and some of his most impressive assists come on interior dump-offs after drawing multiple defenders. I think he’ll find ways like that to weaponize his athleticism early on, and develop into an adequate playmaker out of his self-created offense.
Edgecombe is already a defensive playmaker (2.3 steals, 0.7 blocks per 36 minutes), and I don’t doubt that will continue to be part of his game in the NBA. He has solid instincts as a help defender, and his athleticism allows him to gamble in passing lanes without putting himself completely out of position. However, I’m not sure that he’s quite good enough at the point of attack to be considered an elite defensive prospect. He prefers not to fully engage with opposing ball handlers and press up into their body, which can lead to some issues with screen navigation. He’s also not as impressive of a lateral mover as you might expect: There were more times than I was comfortable with that I saw him get shaken and blown by, especially when guarding point guards. Edgecombe is a solid defender with some switchability and lots of potential for growth, but I’m not ready to say that he’s guaranteed to be a true difference-maker on the wing.
If it all hits for Edgecombe, he could be a guy who scores 20+ points per game, makes shots off the catch and provides plus defense across multiple perimeter positions. That’s an exceptionally valuable player, which is why I’m high on him in a general sense. Even if his defense ends up being closer to average and he never quite develops into being worthy of on-ball reps, Edgecombe still has all the tools to be a starting-caliber shooting guard for the next decade.
Projected NBA Role: Quality Starter
NBA Upside: All-Star
2. Kon Knueppel / Duke
Height/Wingspan: 6’6” / 6’6”
Rookie Season Age: 20
Player Type: Movement Scorer
Game Reminds Me Of: Klay Thompson / Nicolas Batum
He might have spent his freshman year at Duke in the shadow of Cooper Flagg, but anyone who watched the Blue Devils knows how important Kon Knueppel was to their success. Knueppel was the MVP of the ACC tournament, and was named second-team all-conference for his regular season exploits. His shooting is what sets him apart, but he’s more well-rounded as a scorer than you might think at first glance.
Knueppel was exceptionally efficient (64.2% true shooting) at Duke, albeit on relatively low usage (21.4%). He has an advanced understanding of how to use off-ball movement to create advantages. 17.3% of his shooting possessions (94th percentile frequency) were generated by off-ball screens, and he averaged 1.08 points per possession (71st percentile efficiency) on those looks. He’s got exceptional balance and footwork, which allows him to stay square to the basket and always be a threat as a shooter. He’s not an explosive vertical or lateral athlete, but there’s very little wasted movement when he drives to the rim. Because his shot requires so much respect from the defense, he’s often able to get a step on his defender with just a hard jab step and rip through. He’s strong with the ball and is effective with jump stops and up fakes, which helped him shoot 62.7% at the rim and draw fouls on 14% of his overall possessions. Knueppel is not going to line up defenders in isolation and break people down off the dribble, but he can still be effective from inside the arc due to his ability to weaponize the threat of his shot.
Knueppel connected on 40.3% of his threes (6.3 attempts per 36 minutes) at Duke. He’s got a fluid, high release and range that extends well beyond the arc, and he very rarely catches the ball without a solid, square base. Knueppel is also good at curling into the lane off of pin-downs and getting into the paint, which prevents defenders from selling out to take away the three. If there’s one knock on Knueppel as a shooter, it’s that he’s not quite as versatile with his jumper as some of the greats. He hasn’t shown the ability to come flying off of down screens and square his lower body while leaping into his shooting motion, à la Kyle Korver or JJ Redick. He’s also not currently a threat to create threes off the bounce: He was just 3-21 (14.3%) on off-dribble three point attempts at Duke. Those limitations might impact his ability to get shots up at a truly elite volume, but there’s no doubt that he’s going to be a major threat any time he’s spotting up.
With an 18% assist rate and a nearly 2:1 assist to turnover ratio, Knueppel is a smart, efficient passer. He’s a good lob thrower out of pin-down actions, and he consistently makes the right read when attacking closeouts. Because he’s not an elite athlete nor a dynamic scorer off the dribble, I don’t expect Knueppel to ever garner many on-ball playmaking reps. However, as a second-side attacker and secondary scorer, he’ll keep the ball moving without making many mistakes.
Knueppel is a tough, rugged defender who maximizes his physical tools. He competes on the ball and is decent at fighting over the top of ball screens. He’s also rarely out of position off the ball, which keeps him from being blown by when recovering from the paint to the perimeter. All that being said, Knueppel has short arms (6’6” wingspan) and questionable vertical/lateral pop (didn’t test at the combine). That puts a cap on his playmaking ability as a help defender, and I expect him to struggle with quickness from smaller guards. I think his strength and toughness will keep him from being completely overpowered by bigger wings, but he may also have difficulty with high-level shot makers who can work to their spots and score over the top.
No team should be expecting Knueppel to come in and transform an NBA offense by himself. However, he’s as good a bet as any to help drive efficient scoring by hitting shots and consistently making the right play. If he can improve the versatility of his three-point stroke just a bit and avoid being a defensive liability, Knueppel could be the type of starting wing that every contender is dying to have in a supporting role.
Projected NBA Role: Quality Starter
NBA Upside: Priority Starter
3. Tre Johnson / Texas
Height/Wingspan: 6’6” / 6’10”
Rookie Season Age: 19
Player Type: Isolation Shot Creator / Volume Scorer
Game Reminds Me Of: Brandon Ingram / J.R. Smith
A five-star recruit in the high school class of 2024, Johnson was named SEC Freshman of the Year after leading the conference in per-game scoring. Johnson is a high-level shot maker, but his iso-heavy game won’t appeal to every team.
Analyzing Johnson as a scorer requires starting with his jumper, mostly because of how infrequently he gets to the basket. Just 20.6% of his field goal attempts came at the rim (13th percentile frequency), and he averaged 1.03 points per shot attempt on those looks (28th percentile efficiency). Johnson has a very tight handle and with a 6’10” wingspan, should be able to extend and finish around size. However, he puts together his dribble moves with the express intent of creating separation for his jump shot, and he’s not particularly interested in drawing contact (10.3% free-throw rate).
The only reason Johnson was able to be moderately efficient (55.6% true shooting) on high-volume usage (29.1%) is because he’s an incredibly advanced shot maker off the dribble. Johnson shot 38.4% on 99 off-dribble three-point attempts, and converted on 39.7% of his three-point looks overall. He’s got a high release and a natural fade to his shooting motion, which allows him to generate clean looks without much time or space. His step-back and side-step footwork is highly developed, and he’s got a clear understanding of how to get to his preferred spots on the court. Off the catch, Johnson has deep range and a quick trigger, which isn’t always guaranteed for a player like him that’s used to having the ball in his hands. Nevertheless, Johnson prefers to create for himself: He ranked in the 97th percentile in terms of isolation frequency in all of Division I.
Johnson has some definite playmaking skill that could continue to develop with age and experience. He has enough size to see over the top of the defense, and he whips passes with both hands along the baseline. However, as evidenced by his meager 12.2% assist rate, Johnson’s score-first mindset permeates throughout his offensive game.
The defensive film that Johnson put on tape at Texas is concerning. Because of his above-average length, he can create some issues on the ball when defending smaller players. Unfortunately, that’s pretty much where the positive talking points end. He’s very thin (190 lbs.), which leads to him being consistently overpowered and outmuscled around the basket. His closeouts are nothing short of atrocious: Seeing him repeatedly be sent flying by simple shot fakes made for a frustrating film watch. He actually has decent help instincts, but too often he just isn’t playing hard enough for it to matter. He’s got the physical tools to be an adequate wing defender, especially as he fills out his body. However, I doubt that he’ll be anything but a liability without a major shift in his mentality.
I don’t think there’s much doubt that Johnson has the tools to be a volume scoring threat in the NBA, but it’s in the eye of the beholder how valuable that is to a winning team. If Johnson makes 40% of his threes and takes moderate steps up as a foul-drawer and passer, he could certainly be a guy who drives slightly above-average offense on high-volume usage. However, if he’s not scoring efficiently enough to command on-ball reps, he doesn’t have a great baseline of complementary skills to fall back on.
Projected NBA Role: High-End Reserve
NBA Upside: Fringe All-Star