2025 Draft Ranks: On-Ball Guards, Tier 2
Expect to see these three players get picked in the first round
The Basketball Notebook is back for the 2025 NBA draft. Over the course of the next month, I’ll be releasing tiered rankings by position, culminating in a final overall big board in mid to late June.
Click here for a few important reminders about how I structure my rankings and write-ups.
Click here for Tier 1 of the on-ball guard ranks.
TIER 2:
Kasparas Jakučionis / Illinois
Height/Wingspan: 6’6” / 6’8”
Rookie Season Age: 19
Player Type: Versatile Playmaker / Slashing Driver
Game Reminds Me Of: Manu Ginóbili / Cade Cunningham / Gordon Hayward
A Lithuanian native, Jakučionis led a talented Illinois team in both scoring and assists as a freshman. I’m not sure that Jakučionis is a true point guard, but he has the playmaking instincts to garner on-ball reps and enough size to defend multiple positions.
Jakučionis’ best work as a scorer comes when he’s attacking downhill. He showcases good balance and a strong lower body, and he’s skilled enough to finish with both hands. He understands how to decelerate and use euro-step footwork to play under control as a driver, and he routinely overpowers smaller defenders. Jakučionis took 35.6% of his field goal attempts at the basket while converting at a 64.5% clip, and he also drew fouls on 15.9% of his possessions.
Jakučionis elevates well on his jumper off the dribble and aggressively seeks out his spots to take it. He shot just 31.4% from beyond the arc as a rookie, but there is a level of context needed when evaluating his shooting prospects. Just 25.2% of Jakučionis’ jump shots came off the catch, 1st percentile frequency among all players in NCAA Division I. While his catch-and-shoot numbers are only slightly better (34.6% 3FG), he converted 84.5% of his free throws, which can often be an indicator of shooting potential. I’m not sure Jakučionis will become a knockdown shooter in the NBA, but I do believe that he’ll become a solid one with more reps and an easier shot diet.
As a passer, Jakučionis showed flashes of brilliance mixed with plenty of head-scratching decisions. He sees the floor well as both a driver and pick-and-roll operator, and he can pass with both hands, which is rare for a young player. However, he also posted a 23.0% turnover rate, and he can struggle with defenders who are able to get into his body and speed him up. Jakučionis was probably asked to handle too many on-ball reps at Illinois: 38% of his possessions came as a pick-and-roll ball handler, which ranked in the 94th percentile in Division I.
Defensively, Jakučionis is active and engaged on the ball, and he generally plays with plus effort. He’s an above-average positional rebounder (6.4 per 36 minutes), and he uses his size and length to his advantage against smaller players. On the negative side, he’s not a great lateral mover nor a standout vertical athlete, and he struggles with screen navigation. I think Jakučionis will ultimately be a guy who won’t necessarily be targeted by opponents, but he probably doesn’t profile as an asset at the point of attack either.
Jakučionis has an intriguing, jack-of-all-trades skill set that offers him multiple pathways to becoming a useful NBA player. I don’t think he has the athleticism or on-ball dynamism to be a lead offensive engine, but he could be very valuable as a secondary playmaker who consistently punishes scrambling defenses as a passer and driver. If that is indeed his future role, there will be an even greater emphasis on the improvements he needs to make as a shooter because he’ll play off the ball more than other prospects in this tier.
Projected NBA Role: Quality Starter
NBA Upside: Priority Starter
Jeremiah Fears / Oklahoma
Height/Wingspan: 6’4” / 6’5”
Rookie Season Age: 19
Player Type: Downhill Scorer
Game Reminds Me Of: Tyreke Evans / Andrew Nembhard / Jrue Holiday
Ranked as the #65 recruit in the high school class of 2024 by 24/7 Sports, Fears wasn’t necessarily expected to be a star right away at Oklahoma. Nevertheless, he was the best player on a Sooner team that earned an NCAA tournament berth and was named to the SEC All-Freshman Team. He’s a fierce competitor who is not at all afraid of having the ball in his hands in the biggest moments.
Fears handled a heavy workload (31.5% usage) as a freshman, and it led to mixed results in his efficiency. His best attribute as a scorer is his ability to get to the basket and the free throw line: 46.3% of his field goal attempts came at the rim, and he earned an 18.1% free throw attempt rate. Fears isn’t an exceptional athlete, but he’s got a tight handle and is skilled with his footwork in the lane. He consistently knocks defenders off balance with his shoulder and off arm, and he uses deceleration well to stay under control. He’s also got a nifty spin move that he can deploy to both his left and right hand and a strong, compact frame that allows him to finish through contact. He’s not big or explosive enough to finish over the top of NBA defenses, but between his foul-drawing ability and footwork, I expect him to be an efficient driver at the next level. Fears is also effective in transition. He doesn’t have to break stride to change directions off the dribble, which allows him to get downhill very quickly and catch defenses by surprise.
Similarly to both Jakuçionis and Harper, Fears was asked to take far too many of his jump shots off the dribble in his freshman season. He shot just 27.6% from beyond the arc, and was a ghastly 15-73 (20.5%) on off-the-dribble three point attempts. On the positive side, he was much better on his catch-and-shoot opportunities (36.1%) and very efficient from the free throw line (85.1%). His jump shot mechanics aren’t broken by any means, and he doesn’t turn down open shots, which makes me think he has the tools to develop into a solid enough three-point shooter to get guarded when he’s off the ball. On the ball, he’s going to struggle early on with defenses going under ball screens and forcing him to beat them as a shooter.
There’s no question that Fears is a score-first point guard. He’s capable of making basic reads when the defense rotates to take away his driving lanes, but he’s not a pick-and-roll tactician. His turnover rate (18.3%) outpaced his assist rate (18.1%) at Oklahoma, and he has a tendency to go barreling into multiple defenders, especially late in the shot clock. I like his aggressive mentality, but he’s likely going to have difficulty with turnovers as a young player while he adjusts to the size and speed of NBA defenders.
Fears has the physical tools to be a plus defender at the point of attack. He averaged 2.0 steals per 36 minutes at Oklahoma, and he does a good job of keeping his chest in front of opposing ball handlers. When he really locks in and engages on the ball, he can be very difficult to get past, particularly in isolation. However, he tends to defend with his arms at his sides, which can impact his ability to navigate ball screens. He also needs to get better as a help defender, but that’s not uncommon for young players.
Projected NBA Role: Quality Starter
NBA Upside: Priority Starter
Nolan Traore / Saint-Quentin (France)
Height/Wingspan: 6’3” / 6’8” (Unofficial)
Rookie Season Age: 19
Player Type: Pick-and-Roll Playmaker / Transition Floor General
Game Reminds Me Of: LaMelo Ball / Dante Exum
Traore spent the 24-25 season playing with Saint-Quentin in the LNB Élite, which is the top professional league in his home country of France. Although Saint-Quentin is more of a mid-tier club in the grand scheme of European basketball, it’s noteworthy that Traore was the team’s assist leader and second-leading scorer as an 18-year-old. He’s probably a year or two away from being physically ready for high-level NBA contribution, but he’s also one of the youngest players in the draft.
Traore was inefficient as a scorer last season, posting a 51.1% true shooting percentage. Even still, Saint-Quentin entrusted him with the keys to the offense - 50% of his shooting possessions came as a pick-and-roll ball handler, which ranked in the 97th percentile among all players in his league. Traore’s best work comes when he can get a head of steam and attack downhill, as he’s very fast with the ball in his hands and is constantly looking to push the pace. He needs to work on varying his pace as a driver, as he has a tendency to fly at the rim at 100 mph and lose control. This can lead to struggles when he’s attacking a set defense: In the half court, his free throw rate (11.6%) and effective field goal percentage (42.4%) are significantly worse than in transition (22.9%, 75.8%). He’s also got a very thin frame, which means outmuscling defenders at the basket is not currently an option. He tends to settle for runners and floaters as opposed to getting all the way to the basket, which may be a persistent issue for him even as he gets older and stronger.
Traore shot 31.4% from three for Saint-Quentin overall, and 119 of his 175 attempts came off the dribble. The mechanics on his release look fine, but his footwork on pull-up jumpers can go haywire and he has a tendency to settle for difficult looks. That goes for the mid-range as well, as Traore shot 13-55 (23.6%) on jump shots off the dribble from inside the arc. I don’t think Traore is at risk of being left unguarded when he’s off the ball - he shot a respectable 37.5% from three off the catch - but he has a long way to go before defenses will feel seriously threatened by him as a pick-and-roll scorer from the perimeter.
By far the best part of Traore’s game is his passing ability. He averaged 7.4 assists per 36 minutes for Saint-Quentin, and he sees the floor very well in both pick-and-roll and transition. Traore’s turnover rate (18.3%) was too high, but most of his mistakes come from either his lack of physical strength or a tendency to try to do too much with the ball. He’s big enough to see over top of the defense for lobs and cross-court dimes, and he does a good job of keeping his eyes up the court in transition.
Defensively, I expect Traore to be a liability. He ranked in the 29th percentile in terms of points per possession allowed as a pick-and-roll defender, and the 33rd percentile as an isolation defender. The eye test backs up those numbers. He gets overpowered both on and off the ball, which leads to him being out of position and fouling too much. He’s also not a particularly high effort guy, which limits his playmaking (1.1 steals per 36 minutes), and leads to him being more easily targeted by opponents. Physical development will help him some, but his ceiling on the defensive end is probably just adequacy.
If there’s a lesson to take from watching Tyrese Haliburton in the 2025 playoffs, it’s that a point guard who consistently pushes the pace and creates open shots for his teammates can be an exceptionally valuable offensive weapon. Traore’s not quite on that level as a passer and nowhere near Haliburton as a shooter, but it’s not hard to envision him being a guy who provides some transition juice to a second unit. If he can figure out a way to be more consistent as a half-court scorer, Traore could develop into a solid starter and a plus offensive player.
Projected NBA Role: Quality Reserve
NBA Upside: Quality Starter