2025 Draft Ranks: Wing Forwards, Tier 1 & Tier 1.5
The Basketball Notebook is back for the 2025 NBA draft. Over the course of the next month, I’ll be releasing tiered rankings by position, culminating in a final overall big board in mid to late June.
Links to Previously Released Rankings:
On-Ball Guard (Tier 1) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 2) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 3) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 4)
Wing Guard (Tier 1) / Wing Guard (Tier 2) / Wing Guard (Tier 3) / Wing Guard (Tier 4)
Click here for a few important reminders about how I structure my rankings and write-ups.
TIER 1:
Cooper Flagg / Duke
Height/Wingspan: 6’9” / 7’0”
Rookie Season Age: 19
Player Type: Three-Level Playmaker / Versatile Defender
Game Reminds Me Of: Jimmy Butler / Pascal Siakam / Paolo Banchero
If you’re reading this, chances are you’re already familiar with Cooper Flagg. The consensus top recruit in the high school class of 2024, Flagg lived up to the phenomenal hype. He won both the Wooden Award and AP Player of the Year as a freshman at Duke, leading the Blue Devils to an ACC title and a Final Four appearance. Flagg is the number one player on my board and he will be selected first overall by the Mavericks in this year’s draft. The only question is just how bright his star will shine in the NBA, and whether he can replace Luka Dončić in Dallas as the driving force behind a championship-level team.
With a 35.5” max vertical leap, Flagg isn’t a freakish athlete around the rim. However, he’s an extremely fluid lateral mover for a player his size. Flagg was an efficient scorer at Duke, posting 60.1% true shooting while shouldering a huge workload (30.9% usage). Although he doesn’t create amazing separation off the dribble, he’s got a tight handle that allows him to string multiple moves together with ease. He also shows advanced footwork in the lane and an ability to finish with both hands. Flagg is not afraid to seek out contact and outmuscle smaller defenders, which allowed him to get to the line at a solid 17.9% rate. Encouragingly, he also connected on 84% of his free throws this past season.
Although he’s certainly capable of handling on-ball creation reps, Flagg’s true strength right now comes when he can attack from the wing. He has a great first step and gets to the rim very quickly with his catch-and-rip. Flagg is also a dominant transition force, as he’s skilled enough to grab-and-go off his own defensive rebounds. When he’s forced to score from the mid-range, his efficiency wavers: He shot just 33.8% on 68 off-dribble two-point jumpers at Duke, and posted 44.7% true shooting on his 72 total isolation possessions. Flagg was much more effective when working out of pick-and-roll, as his 1.09 points per possession as a P&R ball handler ranked in the 91st percentile among Division I players. I expect there to be some growing pains for Flagg as a pure isolation scorer early in his career, but the necessary skills are there for improvement with experience.
Flagg was a relatively low-volume three-point shooter (4.3 attempts per 36 minutes) in college, but he was effective (39.1% 3FG). His numbers improved throughout the course of the year as well. After a 8-36 (22.2%) start through his first 10 college games, he shot 44-97 (45.4%) from three the rest of the way. Flagg’s catch-and-shoot mechanics aren’t perfect: His release is a little bit stiff and slow. However, he appears far more fluid off the dribble, and he converted on 40.6% of his off-dribble three-point attempts. There may be a slight adjustment period for Flagg to the NBA three-point line, and I wouldn’t expect him to be a high-volume shooter right away. However, I don’t think he’s at any risk of being a spacing liability when playing off the ball, and he’s flashed the ability to punish teams for going under ball screens or playing deep drop coverage against him.
Relative to his position, playmaking is a definite strength of Flagg’s game. He posted an 18.4% assist rate at Duke while turning the ball over on just 11.7% of his possessions. As a lead creator, his size allows him to see over top of the defense and effectively play a point-forward role. He’s also proficient with his back to the basket from the mid-post, as he can throw passes to cutters with both hands. Duke also utilized Flagg as a screener, and he’s got a great feel as a short roll passer. He commands defensive attention as soon as he catches the ball in the paint, which opens up lobs to his bigs or kick-outs to open shooters. Finally, Flagg is a weapon when leading transition breaks. He had a 23.8% assist rate and a 3:1 assist to turnover ratio in 126 transition possessions with the Blue Devils.
With a 7’0” wingspan and above-average lateral mobility, Flagg is the type of multi-positional wing defender that every NBA team is desperate to roster. He plays hard, engages on and off the ball, and crashes the glass. He’s got excellent timing going for steals (1.6 per 36 minutes), and offers secondary rim protection (1.6 blocks per 36 minutes). Statistically, Flagg was one of the best isolation defenders in the country: He allowed 0.41 points per possession (94th percentile efficiency) while forcing turnovers at a 23.5% rate. Although I expect Flagg to be able to defend the 2-4 with ease, he may not be the best option to defend the quickest on-ball guards. He’s not a good screen navigator at this point in his career, and Duke preferred to have him switch onto the screener rather than fight over the top. Playing him way out of the perimeter also takes away from what he offers as a shot blocker.
Flagg is an elite prospect, worthy of comparison to recent no-doubt #1 picks like Victor Wembanyama and Zion Williamson. I expect Flagg to play at a near All-Star level in his rookie season, as his versatility on both ends of the floor gives him so many ways to positively impact the game. My main question is whether he’ll keep progressing enough as a shot creator to be the lead engine of a championship offense. If he gets to that level, he could be one of the best players in the world.
Projected NBA Role: All-Star
NBA Upside: All-NBA
TIER 1.5
1. Ace Bailey / Rutgers
Height/Wingspan: 6’9” / 7’0”
Rookie Season Age: 19
Player Type: Isolation Shot Creator / Secondary Rim Protector / High-Upside Defender
Game Reminds Me Of: Jeff Green / Jabari Smith Jr. / Paul George
Paired alongside fellow star freshman Ron Harper at Rutgers, Bailey entered his college career with plenty of fanfare. It was a rocky season for him, as he put up solid counting stats but struggled with inconsistency and inefficiency on both ends of the court. Bailey has a sky-high ceiling thanks to his combination of size and skill. However, he’ll have to prove he can package his potential into a style of play that regularly impacts winning.
One of the first things that stands out in Bailey’s film is his lateral burst. Bailey’s first step is explosive, and he can beat most closeouts with a simple catch and rip to his right hand. He’s also a very good ball handler, and he regularly creates separation from his defender with crossovers and hesitation dribbles. Unfortunately, Bailey uses his shiftiness to create space for mid-range jumpers rather than getting all the way to the basket. Just 23.2% (16th percentile frequency) of his field goal attempts came at the rim, unacceptable for a player with his physical profile. Bailey also struggled to generate free throws (11.7%), indicative of his tendency to shy away from contact and settle for difficult shot attempts. 54.9% (81st percentile frequency) of Bailey’s shot attempts were off-dribble jumpers, and he converted those at a miserable 33.1% rate. Bailey has a high release and natural fade on his jumper, which makes it easy for him to get his shot off. However he simply doesn’t make enough mid-rangers to justify how often he maneuvers to that area on the floor. At Rutgers, Bailey worked out of isolation on 18.8% of his shooting possessions, 99th percentile frequency among Division I players. His true shooting on those possessions was 42.4%. I believe Bailey will grow into more efficiency with his self-created jump shots, but he has to do a better job of getting to the basket and free throw line to warrant shot creation opportunities in the NBA.
Perhaps one reason why Bailey doesn’t feel comfortable around the basket is a surprising lack of vertical pop (34.5” max vertical). He also needs to get stronger and fill out his frame, as he currently only weighs 203 lbs. Despite those limitations, Bailey is very effective as a cutter along the baseline due to his straight-line speed. He averaged 1.40 points per possession (81st percentile efficiency) on cuts at Rutgers, converting field goals at a 75% rate while getting fouled on 17.1% of possessions. He’s a graceful athlete and a two-foot leaper, which makes him an easy target for lobs.
Bailey averaged 4.9 three-point attempts per 36 minutes, making 34.8% of his threes. However, he was much better off the catch (38.7% on 93 attempts). Bailey’s mechanical inconsistencies are far more prevalent when he’s pulling up off the dribble, as are his poor shot-selection tendencies. When he has his feet set and square to the basket, I expect Bailey to make shots at a high rate. Additionally, with his height and high release, he doesn’t need a lot of time or space. He also showed some ability to run off screens to free himself up for threes, although that did lead to some poor mechanics in his lower half. One area where I believe Bailey was underutilized in college and could become a real weapon in the NBA is as a pick-and-pop shooter. It’s slightly concerning to me that Bailey only made 69.2% of his free throws in college, but I think that speaks more to erratic focus than broken shooting form.
There are a few flashy assists on Bailey’s highlight reel, particularly on interior feeds to his bigs. However, he’s not a natural playmaker, as evidenced by his tiny 6.3% assist rate. I don’t think Bailey is incapable of finding his teammates, but he’s certainly searching for his own shot first. Additionally, because his offense is all about creating space for his jumper, it’s rare that his creation forays draw multiple defenders. I’d like to see Bailey take incremental steps forward as a passer off his drives, and with his handle the potential is there for occasional pick-and-roll ball handler reps. However, even if Bailey develops into a high-level scorer, I wouldn’t expect him to be a player who consistently creates great shots for others.
Bailey’s defensive potential is intriguing. Because of how well he moves his feet, he’s capable of staying in front of smaller players and swallowing them up with his length. That length also allows him to close gaps quicker than opponents can anticipate, which makes him effective as both a perimeter shot blocker and a supplementary rim protector. Strength is an issue for him on the interior, but he competes and he holds his own on the defensive glass. One issue that Bailey has is a tendency to be too aggressive as a help defender, leading to open shots for his primary matchup. However, I like that his natural tendency is to sit in gaps and clog driving lanes. If he can learn how to time his stunt-and-recover ability, Bailey could develop into a game-changing off-ball defensive presence. Even if that feel never fully materializes, he should be able to handle the majority of defensive assignments across both forward positions. However, I don’t foresee him being somebody who can defend point guards, as he’s not a good screen navigator and prefers to use his length rather than engage ball handlers with pressure at half court.
Five years ago, I was lower than consensus on a prospect named Anthony Edwards who was similarly reliant to Bailey on self-created jumpers (90th percentile frequency) and even less efficient on those looks (41.3% true shooting). I’m not saying that Bailey is going to be Edwards, whose natural athleticism is on a different level than Bailey and most other humans. I am saying that young players can get significantly better, and that high-volume shot creation is a skill in and of itself. I fully expect Bailey to provide negative value as a rookie, even if he records his fair share of points and rebounds. However, his ceiling is as high as any non-Flagg prospect I’ve written up so far. If Bailey’s on-ball offense does ultimately flop, his versatile defense and catch-and-shoot ability should prevent him from completely bottoming out.
Projected NBA Role: Priority Starter
NBA Upside: All-Star