2025 Draft Ranks: Wing Guards, Tier 4
The Basketball Notebook is back for the 2025 NBA draft. Over the course of the next month, I’ll be releasing tiered rankings by position, culminating in a final overall big board in mid to late June.
Links to Previously Released Rankings: On-Ball Guard (Tier 1) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 2) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 3) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 4)
Wing Guard (Tier 1) / Wing Guard (Tier 2) / Wing Guard (Tier 3)
Click here for a few important reminders about how I structure my rankings and write-ups.
TIER 4:
1. John Tonje / Wisconsin
Height/Wingspan: 6’6” / 6’9”
Rookie Season Age: 24
Player Type: Bruising Driver / Secondary Creator
Game Reminds Me Of: Terrence Shannon Jr. / Dillon Brooks
Tonje walked the slow path to college stardom, spending four seasons at Colorado St. before transferring to Missouri for the ‘23-24 season. Eight games into his Missouri career, a foot injury led to a lost season and a medical redshirt. Tonje took full advantage of that redshirt year, transferring to Wisconsin and exploding on to the scene as one of the best scorers in the country. He was a consensus second team All-American in ‘24-25, piloting the Badgers to their most wins (27) since 2016-17.
Tonje was ridiculously efficient (65% true shooting) on high usage (28%) because of how effective he was as a driver. He attacks the rim with ferocity and plays a bruising, bowling ball style that wears out opposing defenses. Tonje posted an elite 20.3% free-throw attempt rate, and he shot an equally brilliant 90.9% from the stripe. Tonje is a solid athlete, but he’s not explosive enough to blow past his man off the bounce or posterize bigger players at the rim. Instead, he wins with footwork and balance in the lane, using plenty of up-fakes and reverse pivots to get his shot off or draw fouls. He does have an excellent feel for attacking closeouts, as he gets downhill quickly off the catch. If Tonje’s foul-drawing craft doesn’t translate to the next level, I do worry a bit about how he’ll adjust. He struggled as a mid-range scorer (34.9% FG on off-dribble two-point jumpers), and he doesn’t create amazing separation off the bounce.
Tonje’s release on his shot is a little bit low for my liking, but he was very effective with it at Wisconsin. He made 38.5% of his threes while getting up 6.8 attempts per 36 minutes, and he has range that extends well beyond the college three. Tonje shot 42.1% on catch-and-shoot threes, which is especially encouraging given that he’ll undoubtedly spend more time off the ball in the NBA. I’m not sure I buy Tonje as a high-level NBA shooter, especially on self-created looks. However, I do believe he’ll make shots at an acceptable rate for a wing player, and will require defensive attention when he’s spotted up at the three-point line.
Despite having the ball in his hands a ton at Wisconsin, Tonje didn’t do much creation for his teammates (2.1 assists per 36 minutes, 9.6% assist rate). He’s unquestionably got a score-first mentality, and he can be a bit of a ball-stopping presence within an offense. He’s an effective pick-and-roll scorer, but I’m not sure how much he’ll be able to work as a lead ball handler for an NBA team. Tonje will need to get better at finding the open man off his drives to the rim, or he could be at risk of losing the faith of both his coaching staff and teammates.
The defensive end of the floor will be the deciding variable for Tonje’s NBA career. His film off the ball is poor: He’s not a playmaker (1.1 steals+blocks per 36 minutes) and he can lose focus, leading to late closeouts. However, I was pleasantly surprised by his point of attack defense. Although he’s not an amazing lateral mover, he anticipates well and does a good job of keeping his chest in front of the ball. He’s aggressive and willing to get into the body of opposing ball handlers, which makes him difficult to screen. Tonje has decent length (6’9” wingspan), and I could see him being a solid on-ball defender in the NBA, where he’ll have a smaller offensive workload and should be able to dedicate more energy to defense.
Because he’s an older prospect (25 as of April 2026) whose collegiate scoring ability largely relied on the inexperience of young defenders, there’s obvious reason to doubt that Tonje’s game will translate to the next level. However, his catch-and-shoot prowess combined with the potential of his on-ball defense is enough for me to think that there’s a pathway to usefulness, even if his shot creation ability falls off.
Projected NBA Role: G-League/Two-Way
NBA Upside: Quality Reserve
Hunter Sallis / Wake Forest
Height/Wingspan: 6’5” / 6’10”
Rookie Season Age: 22
Player Type: Versatile Scorer / Secondary Creator
Game Reminds Me Of: B.J. Boston / Caris LeVert / Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Around this time last year, Sallis was one of my favorite sleeper prospects. He chose to return to school for his senior year rather than remain in the draft, which may end up being a costly mistake. Although Sallis posted similar raw numbers, his three-pointer abandoned him, damaging his scoring efficiency and future outlook as a complementary piece.
With his 6’10” wingspan and above-average athleticism, Sallis covers ground quickly when moving downhill. He can be a weapon in transition, as he’s a skilled finisher with good footwork and the ability to score with both hands around the rim. In the half-court, Sallis is a more methodical driver, preferring to snake ball screens and work his way to the mid-range. The inability to get all the way to the basket is a concern: 23.5% (17th percentile frequency) of Sallis’ field goal attempts came at the rim, while 67.5% (97th percentile frequency) came as off-dribble jumpers. On the bright side, Sallis was one of the more efficient mid-range scorers in college basketball, making 52.3% of his 149 off-dribble two-point jump shots. Even still, without an improved ability to consistently generate layups or free throws (12.9% FT attempt rate), Sallis will not be an efficient scorer in the NBA.
In the ‘23-24 season, Sallis made 39.8% of his threes, including an impressive 39.2% of his off-dribble attempts. This past year, those numbers plummeted to 27.9% and 23.7%, respectively. Perhaps more concerningly, there seems to be a degradation in his shooting form: Sallis’ release and pre-release mechanics appear to be significantly less fluid, and he shoots a high-arcing moonball that leads to some ugly misses. Even on catch-and-shoot looks, his conversion rate fell year-over-year from 40.6% to 30.5%, which brings into question his ability to function in an off-ball role. If Sallis doesn’t rediscover his form as a shooter, he’s not going to make it in the NBA because he’s not dynamic enough on the ball to warrant significant lead creation reps. His high-end outcome relies on him both making shots off the catch and providing secondary shot creation.
I believe Sallis is a better playmaker than his 12.4% assist rate suggests. He simply didn’t have much talent around him at Wake Forest, which limited his options as a creator. Although Sallis isn’t particularly dynamic off the dribble, he’s got an advanced understanding of how to manipulate ball screens. He’s very good at keeping his defender locked in a trailing position, and he understands how to force a commitment to the ball from the opposing big in pick-and-roll. He needs to remove some of the ball-stopping tendencies from his game, but playing next to better players should help with that.
When he locks in on the ball, Sallis’ length can create issues on the defensive end. He also has decent instincts as a help defender off the ball, he’ll jump gaps and force opposing ball handlers to pick up or lose their dribble. However, his overall defensive effort level needs work. He gets screened far too easily, and he can be physically overpowered by bigger wings. His playmaking (1.2 steals per 36 minutes) is underwhelming relative to his physical tools. There’s a world where Sallis becomes a player who can adequately defend both guard spots, but it will take a mindset shift for him to reach that level.
Between his on-ball skills and plus wingspan, Sallis has enough upside to warrant being drafted. However, this is undoubtedly a low-floor profile: If Sallis is out of the NBA within two or three seasons, I wouldn’t be shocked.
Projected NBA Role: G-League/Two-Way
NBA Upside: High-End Reserve
Alijah Martin / Florida
Height/Wingspan: 6’2” / 6’7”
Rookie Season Age: 24
Player Type: Point of Attack Defender
Game Reminds Me Of: Davion Mitchell / Aaron Holiday
After four years and a Final Four appearance with Florida Atlantic, Martin transferred to the University of Florida for his final collegiate seasons. He was an integral piece of the Gators’ national championship team, serving as their second-leading scorer and primary perimeter stopper. Martin’s NBA ceiling is limited, but his 3&D skill set is potentially useful to every NBA team.
Martin is an above-average athlete with a well-built (210 lbs.), muscular frame. He shows good vertical burst around the rim, which allows him to be an effective finisher in transition. However, Martin doesn’t have the tightest handle, which limits his ability to attack off the dribble against a set defense. He’s better at attacking closeouts or playing out of handoffs, which is why he profiles as an off-ball player at the offensive end.
Martin aggressively hunts his jumper off both the catch and the dribble. He generated threes at a solid volume (7 per 36 minutes) but only converted on a modest 34.3% of those looks. He has deep range, but his release is a little bit low and stiff. Martin was actually more efficient on his off-dribble looks (35.8%) than his catch-and-shoot opportunities (33.7%), which is unusual. I like that Martin has been a willing shooter throughout the entirety of his college career (8.2 attempts per 40 minutes across 162 total games). However, I’m not confident that he’s going to make shots at the level required for an NBA shooting guard.
Martin’s playmaking ability is limited. He’s capable of attacking a closeout and making basic reads, but he doesn’t offer any on-ball creation, even in a secondary capacity. Martin’s overall turnover rate (10.4%) isn’t alarming, but in 58 pick-and-roll possessions at Florida, he turned it over at a 29.3% rate.
Defense is where Martin has a chance to make the greatest impact. Because of his strength, length and lateral mobility, Martin is an ideal point of attack defender. He allowed 0.55 points per possession as the primary defender against pick-and-roll ball handlers last season, which ranked in the 89th percentile in Division I. He engages well on the ball, plays in stance, and has an excellent feel for screen navigation. Martin also offers defensive playmaking, averaging 1.7 steals per 36 minutes. His size limits his impact as a help defender, but he will be an asset defending both guard positions.
The use case for Martin is clear, especially for a team with a star point guard who needs to be hidden on the defensive side of the ball. If he makes enough of his catch-and-shoot threes to avoid being an offensive liability, Martin could easily crack an NBA rotation early in his career. However, as a 24-year-old prospect with a very defined skill set, he represents a low-upside bet.
Projected NBA Role: G-League/Two-Way
NBA Upside: Rotational Reserve
WING GUARD RANKINGS:
