2025 Draft Ranks: Wing Guards, Tier 2
Lots of potential, just as many question marks
The Basketball Notebook is back for the 2025 NBA draft. Over the course of the next month, I’ll be releasing tiered rankings by position, culminating in a final overall big board in mid to late June.
Links to Previously Released Rankings: On-Ball Guard (Tier 1) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 2) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 3) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 4)
Click here for a few important reminders about how I structure my rankings and write-ups.
TIER 2:
Jase Richardson / Michigan St.
Height/Wingspan: 6’2” / 6’6”
Rookie Season Age: 19
Player Type: Off-Dribble Shot Creator / Movement Shooter
Game Reminds Me Of: Malik Monk / Anfernee Simons / Tyler Herro
The son of NBA dunk contest legend Jason Richardson, Jase followed his father’s footsteps to Tom Izzo and Michigan State. He gradually earned Izzo’s trust throughout the course of his freshman year, and was arguably the best offensive player on the Spartans by season’s end. Richardson is a positional tweener at combo guard, but he has flashes of scoring greatness that make him an intriguing prospect.
Richardson wasn’t tasked with a huge workload (20.6% usage) at MSU, but he was exceptionally efficient for a young guard (62.8% true shooting). He was also quite versatile, ranking in the 93rd percentile in terms of points per possession on spot ups, 95th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball handler, and 86th percentile in transition. He doesn’t get all the way to the rim as often as I’d like (31.6% of his field goal attempts), but he made up for the low volume by converting at the basket at a 68.8% rate. He also draws a good number of fouls (18.3% free throw attempt rate), and he’s got an advanced understanding of how to accentuate contact as both a driver and jump shooter. Richardson is skinny (178 lbs.), but he doesn’t shy away from physicality and often gets the benefit of the doubt from officials.
Richardson is a confident jump shooter, and he’s constantly hunting for his shot off both the catch and the dribble. His release is a little bit low and slow because he needs to get stronger, but he makes shots (40.9% 3FG) and already has deep range. He’s also comfortable with playing off the ball out of pin-down actions and getting his touches on the move. My biggest gripe with Richardson’s shooting is his shot diet, as he takes too many jumpers and floaters from the mid-range and not enough threes. While he can make those shots, Richardson’s path to high-level NBA scoring will require him to boost his three-point attempt rate from its current mark (39% of his field goal attempts).
Richardson’s efficiency as a playmaker (14.3% assist rate, 8.5% turnover rate) suggests that he could develop into more of a lead initiator with time. He’s good at snaking ball screens and creating 2v1 advantages out of pick-and-roll, and he consistently makes smart reads when curling to the rim out of pin downs. However, Richardson’s handle needs to get significantly better before he can play on the ball full time.
Defense is my biggest area of concern with Richardson’s game. He’s undersized from both a height and weight perspective on the wing, and he gets overpowered by strength around the basket. He also has a tendency to lose focus and connection to his man when he’s off the ball, which can exacerbate his weaknesses. Although he might have the length (6’6” wingspan) and raw athleticism to hold his own at the point of attack, Richardson isn’t there right now. He struggles with screen navigation, and allowed 0.91 points per possession as a pick-and-roll defender (24th percentile efficiency).
There’s little doubt in mind that Richardson has the tools to be a dynamic scorer in the NBA, especially if he can boost his three-point volume while maintaining his efficiency. My worry is that he’ll need to be paired with a more traditional point guard on offense, but won’t have the defensive chops to survive against shooting guards and small forwards. Richardson’s eventual ability (or lack thereof) to play more minutes at point guard will probably determine whether he becomes a starter or a microwave scorer-type 6th man.
Projected NBA Role: High-End Reserve
NBA Upside: Quality Starter
Drake Powell / North Carolina
Height/Wingspan: 6’6” / 7’0”
Rookie Season Age: 20
Player Type: Athletic Slasher / 3&D Prototype
Game Reminds Me Of: Iman Shumpert / Peyton Watson
A five-star recruit out of high school, Powell had an up-and-down freshman season at UNC. There are some definite rough areas in his game, but his combination of positional size, athleticism and skill provides a tasty package for a player development-focused organization to work with.
Powell’s inconsistent role with North Carolina was underscored by his miniscule (13.8%) usage rate. He was able to be reasonably efficient as a scorer (58.7% true shooting), but it’s worth noting that he was asked to handle very few on-ball reps. With a 43” vertical, Powell is an explosive athlete who gets incredible hang time when he loads up off of two feet. That leaping ability makes Powell a very dangerous cutter, especially along the baseline as a lob finisher. He also has some ability to score in transition as both a grab-and-go initiator and rim runner. However, Powell is not very dynamic off the dribble in the half-court. His handle needs significant work and his attempts at self-creation often lead to difficult mid-range jumpers. Powell is better when he can rip through and attack in a straight line against a sloppy closeout, but his footwork and touch in the paint is underdeveloped. His plan as a driver is often to jump as high as he can and out-athlete the defense, a reasonable one in college but less so in the NBA.
As is the case with many role-playing wings, shooting is a critical swing skill for Powell. He made a perfectly acceptable 37.9% of his 95 three-point attempts at UNC, but I’m dubious of that holding up across a larger sample. Powell’s release is slow, and his shot mechanics are stiff and rigid. He shot just 64.8% from the free throw line, and opposing defenses were largely comfortable with sagging off at the three-point line and letting him fire away. Ultimately, I think Powell will develop into a league-average shooter off the catch when he has his feet set. However I don’t see him being a high-volume guy, nor a player who provides shooting versatility with deep range or self-created shots.
Powell has some flash as a passer, particularly on interior feeds off his own drives to the basket. He’s not going to operate out of pick-and-roll and dice up a defense, but he doesn’t have to be that style of offensive player to be effective. I think Powell will be able to attack closeouts, take a dribble or two and consistently make good decisions, which is all that should be required.
Along with his shooting, defense is going to be what determines Powell’s NBA future. He wants to do the right thing, but Powell is raw and makes typical young-player mistakes. He plays in a stance and is willing to engage and work on the ball, but he doesn’t have amazing natural instincts and can struggle with screen navigation. He also needs more reps as an isolation wing defender, as he tends to lose to craftier players who take advantage of his aggression and bait him into silly fouls. Powell’s most impressive defensive film comes as a secondary rim protector, where his athleticism leads to some highlight-reel blocks. The physical traits are there for Powell to be an elite defender, and I don’t think effort will be a limiting factor. However, the inconsistency in his film leads me to believe he’ll be closer to good than great.
My biggest concern with Powell is largely intangible: He doesn’t strike me as a player with a great feel for the game. As crazy as his athleticism is, there’s a lack of fluidity to his movements that stems from inconsistent information processing. Even if there’s only marginal improvement in those areas as he gets more high-level reps, Powell could still be a useful NBA player as long as he hits shots at a decent clip.
Projected NBA Role: Quality Reserve
NBA Upside: Quality Starter
Cedric Coward / Washington St.
Height/Wingspan: 6’6” / 7’2”
Rookie Season Age: 22
Player Type: 3&D Prototype
Game Reminds Me Of: Moses Moody / Toumani Camara / Rui Hachimura
Cedric Coward’s rise as an NBA prospect is nothing short of remarkable. He started his college career at Division III Willamette University, spending one season there before transferring to Eastern Washington. Following two years at EWU, Coward transferred to Washington St. and was in the midst of a breakout campaign before a shoulder injury ended his ‘24-25 season after just six games. To little fault of his own, he’s yet to put out a significant sample size of high-level basketball. Nevertheless, his combination of physical gifts and shooting skill should be enticing to every team in the league.
Albeit in a very limited sample size, Coward was highly efficient at Washington St. He posted 70% true shooting and made 40% of his threes (5.5 attempts per 36 min.). He also shot 68.1% at the rim, a figure that is backed up by his full-season numbers at Eastern Washington. In the ‘23-24 season, he shot a ridiculous 75.8% on 132 shot attempts at the basket, 98th percentile efficiency among Division I players. Coward is excellent in transition, where he gets great extension due to his long arms and is able to finish with both hands. Although he’s not a dynamic creator off the dribble, Coward dominates smaller defenders in the mid and low post. In 13 post up possessions across his six games at WSU, Coward averaged 1.69 points per possession (100th percentile efficiency) while drawing fouls at a 30.8% rate. It’s an unorthodox skill set for a wing, but Coward has a knack for timing his duck-ins and catching defenders by surprise.
Coward has been efficient as a shooter dating back to ‘23-24, when he made 38.2% of his 131 three-point attempts at Eastern Washington. He has a high release that allows him to easily shoot over the top of smaller defenders, and he’s pretty aggressive in hunting opportunities to let it fly. Coward isn’t much of a self-creation threat off the dribble as a shooter, but Washington St. was experimenting with running him off of screens away to free him up for movement shooting looks. Although Coward’s numbers are good across the board, there is some awkwardness in his hands and footwork that’s hard to quantify. It could be because of his unusual height/wingspan ratio, but Coward can look stiff and unnatural with the ball in his hands, which makes me question if his shooting ability will fully translate.
Coward had an impressive 20.2% assist rate at Washington St., but posted a negative assist to turnover ratio in ‘23-24 at Eastern Washington. He’s clearly still developing his comfort level with the ball in his hands, and I wouldn’t expect him to be much of a playmaker in the NBA. However, the growth he showed in a small sample at WSU shows there could be some untapped potential in his passing ability.
With his ridiculous wingspan, Coward looks like he was built in a lab to play modern NBA defense. When he’s able to keep opponents in front, he swallows up smaller players with his length. Coward has the potential to be an elite help defender and secondary rim protector: He was averaging 1.8 blocks per 36 minutes at WSU before getting hurt. On the ball, Coward can be beaten with lateral quickness. He prefers not to press up on opposing ball handlers because he can close gaps with his length, but this leads to difficulty fighting over the top of screens. I think Coward can definitely be a multi-positional defensive asset, but I worry that he’s not quite agile enough to contain the best on-ball guards.
If Coward hits his top level outcome, he could be one of the league’s best three-and-D wings. However, that upside requires a good bit of projection, which I’d feel more comfortable with if Coward was turning 20 in September instead of 22. Even still, the theory of what he could be is exceptionally valuable, and I’m fascinated to see where he ends up being drafted.
Projected NBA Role: Quality Reserve
NBA Upside: Priority Starter