2025 Draft Ranks: Wing Guards, Tier 3
The Basketball Notebook is back for the 2025 NBA draft. Over the course of the next month, I’ll be releasing tiered rankings by position, culminating in a final overall big board in mid to late June.
Links to Previously Released Rankings: On-Ball Guard (Tier 1) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 2) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 3) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 4)
Wing Guard (Tier 1) / Wing Guard (Tier 2)
Click here for a few important reminders about how I structure my rankings and write-ups.
TIER 3:
Chaz Lanier / Tennessee
Height/Wingspan: 6’5” / 6’9”
Rookie Season Age: 24
Player Type: Movement Shooter
Game Reminds Me Of: Tim Hardaway Jr. / AJ Green / Wayne Ellington
After spending the first four years of his college career at North Florida, Lanier transferred to Tennessee for the ‘24-25 season and led the Volunteers in scoring. He’s an older prospect with a limited skill set, but his shooting ability should have broad appeal to NBA teams.
Lanier was the most prolific movement shooter in college basketball last season. 28.8% of his possessions were generated by off-ball screens, the highest rate of any player in Division I. He made 39.5% of his threes while attempting 9.4 per 36 minutes, and 82% of his total field goal attempts were jump shots. Despite being such a high-volume shooter, Lanier was only moderately efficient overall (56.6% true shooting) because he never gets to the basket (13% of his field goal attempts) or gets fouled (8% free throw attempt rate). He can take a dribble or two to free himself up for his own shot, but he’s not a threat to beat any sort of capable defender off the bounce. He’s got enough size and athleticism (39” vertical leap) to be a decent finisher in transition or when he has a wide open driving lane, but putting pressure on the rim is not a part of his half-court game.
Obviously, Lanier is uber aggressive hunting his shot. He has a quick, high release and gets great elevation on his jumper, which allows him to get it off in almost every situation. He’s very comfortable running off of pin-downs and flare screens, and he can operate effectively out of handoffs as well. However, it’s noteworthy that he was far more effective as a spot up shooter (44.3% 3FG, 97 attempts) than out of off-ball screening actions (30.4%, 92 attempts). He also has a tendency to settle for difficult mid-rangers off the bounce when he gets run off the three-point line. Although these may seem like minor issues, they are areas that Lanier absolutely must clean up. His offensive value is entirely dependent on his ability to not just make open shots, but to force a defense to dedicate resources to keep him from even touching the ball.
The best part of Lanier’s game as a passer is that he rarely turns the ball over (6.3% turnover rate). However, he also rarely creates for his teammates (5.7% assist rate) even though he generates significant defensive attention. When he draws two defenders out of handoff or pin-down actions, he needs to take marginal steps forward at finding the open man and allowing his teammates to capitalize on the advantages that the threat of his shooting unlocks.
One of the reasons why Lanier might be more appealing than the typical shooting specialist is that with a 6’9” wingspan and above-average agility metrics, he could be a solid defensive player. Between his length and strength, he’s difficult to score on in isolation, provided he can keep his chest in front of his opponent. However, he struggles to contain quickness at the point of attack, and he gets screened far too easily. He’s got decent off-ball instincts, but he can be late on rotations and doesn’t move with a ton of urgency as a help defender. Lanier’s physical profile should prevent him from being a target, but I don’t think he’ll be a defensive asset without significant improvement.
Although Lanier is flawed in many areas, the one thing he does well is both valuable and rare, even in the modern NBA. Lanier’s shooting should earn him rotation minutes right away. If he dedicates a bit more effort and focus to the defensive end, he could be an extremely useful role player.
Projected NBA Role: Quality Reserve
NBA Upside: High-End Reserve
Tyrese Proctor / Duke
Height/Wingspan: 6’5” / 6’7”
Rookie Season Age: 21
Player Type: Movement Scorer / Secondary Playmaker
Game Reminds Me Of: Landry Shamet / Kevin Huerter
Some may be surprised to see Proctor included in the wing guard rankings, but he had his best season in ‘24-25 when moved into more of an off-ball role. Despite spending three seasons at Duke, Proctor is still relatively young and offers a mix of shooting and secondary ball handling that could make him a real asset for an NBA offense.
Because of how much talent Duke rostered, they were able to run a fairly equal-opportunity offense. That type of environment is where Proctor thrives, because it allows him to show off his scoring versatility without forcing him to be a lead initiator. Proctor moves well off the ball and excels at reading defenses out of split screens. He’s more than capable of putting the ball on the floor and getting into the paint, but he’s neither strong nor athletic enough to consistently put pressure on the rim. Just 23.1% of his field goal attempts came at the basket, and he drew fouls on only 8.8% of his possessions. Where Proctor is skilled and efficient off the dribble is as a shooter. He shot 57.1% on off-dribble twos and 47.1% on off-dribble threes, averaging 1.29 points per shot attempt off the bounce (98th percentile efficiency). With his physical profile, he’ll need to continue to be a threat from the mid-range and develop his floater game to be an effective scorer inside the arc.
Proctor made 40.5% of his threes (7.0 attempts per 36 minutes) in ‘24-25, and I expect him to continue to be a high-level marksman in the NBA. He also shot 46.4% on 28 3FG attempts as a pick-and-roll ball handler, showcasing an ability to punish drop coverage. He’s much more comfortable on self-created looks than as a movement shooter, but he’s typically money with his feet set off the catch.
Playmaking is an asset for Proctor relative to his wing guard peers, as he posted an efficient 16.2% assist rate compared to just a 9.5% turnover rate. He’s very good at finding shooters as a driver, and he’s a capable lob thrower out of both pick-and-roll and pin-down actions. Proctor’s headiness as a passer is particularly useful in transition, where he posted a ridiculous 7:1 assist to turnover ratio. He’s not dynamic or explosive enough as a ball handler to be a lead initiator, but as a secondary playmaker he’s a valuable piece.
Proctor plays hard on the defensive end and he uses his 6’7” wingspan to his advantage when defending smaller guards. However, he’s limited by his lack of physical strength (183 lbs.), especially when defending on the wing. He’s not quite athletic enough to be an asset at the point of attack and he’s definitely not big enough to be a versatile piece on the wing, which puts him in a dangerous gray area on the defensive end of the court. Intelligence and effort put him in the right places more often than not, but I fully expect Proctor to be targeted by opposing offenses whenever he’s on the court.
Fair or not, there seems to be a perception around Proctor that his Duke career was a disappointing one. There is an element of frustration to watching him play, as it often feels like his level of skill should lead to a greater impact on the game than he’s actually making. However, it’s worth remembering that Proctor enrolled at Duke a year early and played his entire freshman season at 18 years old. If he can continue to make incremental improvements to his body and confidence, he could fill a useful role as an offensive-minded combo guard.
Projected NBA Role: Rotational Reserve
NBA Upside: High-End Reserve
Koby Brea / Kentucky
Height/Wingspan: 6’7” / 6’5”
Rookie Season Age: 23
Player Type: Shooting Specialist
Game Reminds Me Of: Duncan Robinson / Georges Niang
After winning A-10 Sixth Man of the Year twice in his four years at Dayton, Brea transferred to Kentucky for his final collegiate season. He led the SEC in 3FG percentage and was the second-leading scorer for the Wildcats. Brea is unquestionably dangerous as a shooter, but athleticism and defensive versatility are major concerns.
With a 68% three-point attempt rate, Brea knows exactly where his bread is buttered as a player. He’s a below-average vertical and lateral athlete, and he’s not looking to attack off the bounce. Just 16.7% of his field goal attempts at Kentucky came at the rim, and his free-throw attempt rate was a miniscule 4.9%. However, Brea is a good enough ball handler to take a dribble or two and free himself up for his jump shot. He took 110 threes off the dribble this past season, and converted at a 42.7% clip. He is excellent at playing out of handoff actions: 19.5% of his possessions were generated by handoffs (99th percentile frequency), and he averaged 1.21 points per handoff possession (90th percentile efficiency).
Brea consistently keeps himself square to the basket, which allows him to play on balance and be a threat to shoot as soon as he touches the ball. He’s also proficient with his step-back jumper even when driving to his right hand, which isn’t always the case for a right-handed player. There’s zero question about his ability to shoot off the catch: He made 45.1% of his catch-and-shoot 3FG attempts at Kentucky, although that’s nothing compared to the 53.8% he shot off the catch in his final season at Dayton. My only concern is that Brea’s reliance on a stable lower-body base limits his utility as a movement shooter. He doesn’t get great elevation on his jumper, which can limit his ability to get shots off in certain situations.
Although he’s not an on-ball creator, Brea makes good reads when the threat of his shot draws defensive attention. He posted a 12.2% assist rate at Kentucky while turning the ball over on just 4.9% of his possessions. If he finds himself in an offense that runs through its bigs at the high post, I expect Brea to be able to come off handoffs, draw multiple defenders, and find the rolling big.
Brea has short arms and tested poorly as a lateral mover at the NBA combine, which makes me nervous about how damaging his defense will be. He’s willing to get down in a stance and work both on and off the ball, but his physical limitations put a ceiling on his effectiveness. I wouldn’t be surprised if Brea’s best defensive position ends up being at the three or even the four where he can guard slower players. At best that would be a half measure, because he’s not a good rebounder (4.1 per 36 minutes) nor long enough to provide any rim protection.
Brea is a more well-rounded offensive player than fellow Tier 3 sniper Chaz Lanier, but his athletic limitations are why I have him ranked lower overall. I believe Brea’s shooting ability is enough of a carrying tool to earn him an extended runway, but it’s also possible that he’s simply not an NBA athlete.
Projected NBA Role: Rotational Reserve
NBA Upside: Quality Reserve