2025 Draft Ranks: Bigs, Tier 3
The Basketball Notebook is back for the 2025 NBA draft. Over the course of the next month, I’ll be releasing tiered rankings by position, culminating in a final overall big board in mid to late June.
Links to Previously Released Rankings:
On-Ball Guard (Tier 1) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 2) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 3) / On-Ball Guard (Tier 4)
Wing Guard (Tier 1) / Wing Guard (Tier 2) / Wing Guard (Tier 3) / Wing Guard (Tier 4)
Wing Forward (Tier 1/1.5) / Wing Forward (Tier 2) / Wing Forward (Tier 3) / Wing Forward (Tier 4)
Click here for a few important reminders about how I structure my rankings and write-ups.
TIER 3:
Danny Wolf / Michigan
Height/Wingspan: 7’0” / 7’2”
Rookie Season Age: 21
Player Type: High Post Playmaker / Face-Up Shot Creator
Game Reminds Me Of: Kelly Olynyk / Dario Šarić / Frank Kaminsky
Wolf started his college career in the Ivy League at Yale, playing two seasons for the Bulldogs before transferring to Michigan. He burst onto the national stage in his first year with the Wolverines, leading the Big Ten in rebounding and earning second team all-conference honors.
Although he was their nominal power forward, Michigan often relied on Wolf as a lead creator. 23.1% of his possessions came as a pick-and-roll initiator, nearly 50 more possessions than his next highest-usage play type. For his size, Wolf is a legitimately unique ball handler. He’s a fluid mover going downhill, and he’s got great footwork and an excellent spin move in the lane. He loves to face up from the mid-post or elbow and attack, and most bigs have a tough time staying with him off the dribble. Wolf also has the ability to create threes for himself off the bounce, but he was only moderately efficient on those looks (33.3% 3FG on 51 attempts).
The downside of Wolf’s creation ability is how prone he is to turnovers. His turnover rate of 21.7% is preposterously high and completely untenable for any player. Part of the reason for his poor ball control was the outsized role Michigan asked him to play, and the lack of spacing he had around him. However, Wolf earned his fair share of blame as well. He’s loose with the ball as both a dribbler and passer, and he has a tendency to opt for the most difficult play at all times. He enjoys being flashy, which leads to some highlights but also some ridiculous mistakes. Wolf is undoubtedly a well above-average passer for his position, but I’m not sure he can captain an efficient offense.
Wolf’s shooting is a major x-factor. He’s got a high release and no glaring imperfections in his form, but he made just 33.6% of his 113 three-point attempts this past season. Those numbers aren’t weighed down by self-created attempts: He made 33.9% of his catch-and-shoot looks. Despite those worrying numbers, I think Wolf will develop into a solid shooter in time. He’ll need to be a true asset as a floor-spacing big to unlock his highest-level outcome as a player.
Wolf has some strengths on the defensive end. He’s an excellent rebounder (11.5 per 36 minutes), and he moves his feet well for a seven-footer. He got tested a lot as an isolation defender at Michigan, and he held his own reasonably well (0.57 points allowed per possession, 81st percentile efficiency). However, Wolf prefers to hang back off his man and meet drives in the paint, a strategy which works better against college players than NBA-level shooters. He also played most of his minutes at the four with a second big behind him to protect the rim. That might have to be the case again in the NBA, as I don’t think Wolf can hold up defensively at center. He’s not an impactful shot blocker nor a standout physical presence (9’1” standing reach, 30” vertical).
If Wolf can become a true floor spacer who also adds value as a passer, he’ll be a useful offensive player. However, that utility is muted if he can’t be a passable defensive center and instead has to play alongside another big.
Projected NBA Role: Rotational Reserve
NBA Upside: High-End Reserve
Noah Penda / Le Mans Sarthe (France)
Height/Wingspan: 6’7” / 7’0” (Unofficial)
Rookie Season Age: 21
Player Type: Point Forward / Switchable Frontcourt Defender
Game Reminds Me Of: Trey Lyles / Grant Williams
Playing in his home country of France, Penda played a key complementary role with Le Mans. He doesn’t have a standout skill, but he’s a jack-of-all-trades type whose appeal comes from his versatility on both ends of the court.
Penda has some on-ball creation ability, but he’s not going to line up his man in isolation and break him down off the dribble. He wants to work his way into the post and win with his strong lower body, which allows him to power through smaller defenders. Penda has good footwork in the paint and plays with patience, which helps him draw fouls (17.8% free-throw attempt rate). He’s also a solid cutter (1.40 points per possession), and he understands how to manipulate undisciplined defenders. However, Penda is undersized and an unspectacular athlete, which limits his effectiveness as a finisher (1.16 points per shot at the rim, 42nd percentile efficiency). He’s not a comfortable shooter from the mid-range, and he doesn’t have great touch with floaters or runners.
I’ve got significant questions about Penda’s shooting ability. He made just 32.5% of his threes this past season while attempting 4.2 per 36 minutes. Penda has a slow, elongated release that requires plenty of time and space to get off. He also shoots across his body, which makes me concerned he may need a full mechanical overhaul to be consistent from the NBA three-point line. Penda was better off the catch (35.6%) than off the dribble (22.2%), and he’s not going to be asked to do any self-creation early in his career. Even still, he needs to get significantly better as a spot up shooter to avoid being a spacing liability.
Penda makes plays as a passer (18.3% assist rate), but I view him as more of a ball mover than a creator. He wants to operate with his back to the basket, but he’s not enough of a scoring threat to consistently draw multiple defenders. He also doesn’t have the tightest handle and can be sped up by ball pressure, leading to turnovers (15.3% turnover rate).
Penda is an intelligent defender who uses his long arms to make plays (1.8 steals per 36 minutes). He moves his feet well in isolation and is difficult to overpower when he has a stable base. However, he has a lot of difficulty fighting through screens, which is why I don’t project him to be a true perimeter stopper. Penda has a good sense of how to rotate as a help defender and his combination of length and strength allows him to be more effective around the basket than his height would suggest. He’ll provide some switchability on the interior, and I think he’d be better served as a small-ball center than a point of attack defender.
Penda needs to become a league-average spot up shooter for his well-roundedness everywhere else to shine through. I wouldn’t bet on that happening, but it’s certainly not impossible. If his shot does indeed improve, he can be a helpful reserve forward.
Projected NBA Role: Rotational Reserve
NBA Upside: Quality Reserve
Bogoljub Marković / KK Mega Basket (Serbia)
Height/Wingspan: 6’11” / 7’0” (Unofficial)
Rookie Season Age: 20
Player Type: Floor Spacer / Skilled Passer
Game Reminds Me Of: Santi Aldama / Aleksej Pokuševski
Marković is the latest Serbian prospect out of Mega, the program that helped develop Nikola Jokić. Marković is far from a finished product, but he’s a highly skilled big who flashes upside as a shooter and playmaker.
Though not an explosive leaper, Marković can attack the basket against a closeout. His straight-line speed allows him to be effective in transition, where he averages 1.29 points per possession (78th percentile efficiency) and gets to the free throw line at a 26.4% rate. Marković needs to bulk up to finish through size in the post, but he’s got pretty good footwork and can score over either shoulder. He also has good hands as a roll man and does a nice job of keeping the ball high off the catch and finishing quickly.
Marković’s best attribute in the half court is his ability to space the floor. He made 38.4% of his threes (3.3 attempts per 36 minutes) this past season, and he’s a confident shooter off the catch with clean mechanics and a high release. Marković needs to get better out of pick-and-pop (24% 3FG), but he’s very proficient when he has his feet set (46.7% 3FG on spot ups). With his ability to both make threes and get downhill off the dribble, Marković could develop into a useful piece for a team looking to play with five-out spacing.
Marković definitely has playmaking ability (15.5% assist rate), but he’s also highly prone to mistakes (19.8% turnover rate). He’s got good vision from the top of the key: He consistently fools the defense with shot fakes that turn into dimes to cutters. He also shows a tiny bit of promise as a grab-and-go transition initiator. Marković struggles when asked to create from the post (29.7% turnover rate on post-ups), where he can get flustered by double teams and ball pressure. He also has a tendency to leave his feet as a driver, which leads to some wild passes to the opposition. I doubt NBA teams will ask Marković to isolate in the post, which will help him cut down his turnovers. In time, his ability to keep the offense flowing from above the break should be an asset.
Marković’s defensive profile is filled with question marks. Strength and power are major issues for him on the interior, particularly on the glass. He’s not much of a rim protector either (1 block per 36 minutes), and he can be slow to rotate as a help defender. In pure isolation situations on the perimeter, Marković moves his feet decently well and uses his length to bother drivers. However, he’s very tentative with his closeouts and can be blown by in a straight line. There’s a world where Marković grows into being a passable defender at the four, but I don’t see him being able to soak up heavy center minutes.
Marković turns 20 in early July, which means he still has plenty of room for development. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team look to stash him in Europe for a year so he can work on his game and body while getting regular game reps. With his potential as a floor spacer, he’s worth taking a shot on.
Projected NBA Role: Rotational Reserve
NBA Upside: Quality Reserve
BIG RANKINGS:
Honorable Mentions: Alex Toohey (Australia), Johni Broome (Auburn), Eric Dixon (Villanova)