Thursday Teams of the Week: Boston Celtics, New Orleans Pelicans
Each week, I’ll be touching base with one Eastern conference team and one Western conference team to assess how they are performing relative to my predicted outcomes. For the next several weeks before the end of the calendar year, the baseline for comparison will be my preseason expectations, which will be linked to the team name.
EAST: BOSTON CELTICS
Statistical Overview: *All metrics courtesy of Basketball Reference*
*Note: Four factor metrics are actuals, with league rank in parentheses*
Statistical Surprise: More of the Same
Sometimes when the top-line expectations for a team remain the same, it is easy to overlook sizable roster changes. In the Celtics’ case, it should not be forgotten that their offseason was extremely active: they added two prominent pieces in Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday, and subtracted multiple key rotation members like Marcus Smart, Robert Williams, Grant Williams and Malcolm Brogdon. Even with the new faces, Boston’s formula for dominating the regular season has remained largely the same. The Celts are once again top 5 in eFG because of their ability to space the floor and launch threes: 48.1% of their field goal attempts come from three point range, which is the best mark in the league, and right in line with where they were a season ago (48.0%). Among the Celtics top 8 in their rotation, no player is a liability as a shooter, which allows them to spread out the defense and consistently generate good shots, even without an elite distributor on the team.
Defensively, Boston just keeps humming along as well. They are excellent on the glass, posting a top 5 defensive rebound rate for the second consecutive season. They are one of the best teams in the NBA at avoiding fouls, as their FT/FGA is top three for the second year in a row as well. Combine that with their rim protection (second lowest (58.1%) opponent shooting on field goal attempts from 0-5 feet), and the Celtics are once again top 5 in opponent eFG.
Of course, Boston has the luxury of stability at the top, as head coach Joe Mazzulla is a holdover from 2022-23, as are their two highest usage players, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Nevertheless, incorporating two All-Star caliber players into your system without a hitch is a difficult task, and one that we’ve seen multiple teams struggle with in the past. Hitting the ground running is a credit not only to Porzingis and Holiday for buying in, but also to Brad Stevens and Boston’s front office for identifying the right players to target.
Notable Storyline: Top Heavy
For as strong and cohesive as the front end of Boston’s roster is, it is worth noting that attrition over the years has taken its toll on their depth. The Celtics’ top six is as potent as any in the NBA, and Sam Hauser has emerged as a quality bench wing to give them seven every-night contributors. Beyond that, things get a little dicey. Payton Pritchard has had productive moments in his NBA career, but he’s struggled in the third guard role this season, shooting just 37.5% from the field. Luke Kornet is a fine third big, but his limited defensive mobility and lack of shooting make him a less than ideal fit for the Celtics system on either end. Off-season wing additions Oshae Brissett and Dalano Banton have both been unable to consistently crack Mazzulla’s rotation.
If the Celtics can get to the playoffs with their primary pieces healthy, players 8-12 on the depth chart probably won’t matter much. However, it would certainly be preferable to lessen the minutes load on the starters over the course of a long regular season. More importantly, if an injury does pop up at an inopportune time in the spring, Boston could be in trouble. Since Kristaps Porzingis went down with a strained calf on November 24th, Boston has gone just 3-2 and has an offensive rating of 113.8 over that span, compared to 117.6 before that date. It’s a small sample size, but it’s a window into how important having their full complement is to their success. Unsurprisingly, The Athletic NBA Insider Shams Charania reported on Tuesday that he expects the Celtics to be active in the trade market to “beef up” their bench rotation. Even if it's just a minor addition or two, Boston could really benefit.
Overachiever: Sam Hauser
One player who has stepped up off the Boston bench is third-year wing Sam Hauser. Originally signed to a two-way contract in 2021, Hauser saw occasional minutes throughout the 21-22 and 22-23 seasons, but was unable to carve out a consistent playoff role. Through the first 20 games of 2023-24, Hauser has been an invaluable piece. Three point shooting is undoubtedly his calling card: Hauser is averaging 9.9 3PA per 36 minutes and connecting at a 45.2% clip, which puts him in elite territory among NBA marksmen. He’s not just a standstill shooter either, as he has a quick, high release and is capable of utilizing off-ball screens and shooting on the move. He’s more than a player who will punish the defense when left open, he is a weapon who requires active defensive attention and pulls the collective focus of the opponent away from Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
Defensively, Hauser is never going to be mistaken for a stopper, but he’s also not the total turnstile that other shooters of his ilk tend to be. Hauser has enough size (6’8”) to bang with bigger forwards, and enough mobility to avoid being completely embarrassed by quicker wings. He competes hard on the defensive end and he’s generally in the right position: He might be a liability in the closing minutes of a Finals game but he’s definitely playable through the meat of the playoffs.
Overall, Hauser is a quality rotation piece that the Celtics signed for nothing and committed to developing in their program. His evolution is a clear win for Boston’s front office, and represents one less area they have to worry about filling before their playoff push begins.
Outlook Shift?
I had Boston power ranked as one of the clear championship contenders prior to the season, and I see no reason to change that stance 20 games in. I fully expect the Celtics to roll through the regular season and given how the Bucks have struggled defensively so far, I don’t see any real competition for Boston in regards to earning the Eastern conference #1 seed.
The real season will start for the Celtics once the playoffs begin, and I do still have questions for Boston at that point. I’m a little worried about their lack of passing, as I’ve seen instances where their late game offense has gone cold just as it has at certain points in prior postseasons. As great as Jayson Tatum is, he’s not quite the elite playmaker for his teammates that some of the other championship-level top options around the NBA. Boston is more reliant on their entire contingent of players being healthy and clicking come May and June, which means there is just a bit more variance involved with the Celtics than a few of the other contenders.
Nevertheless, this is an awesome team and I would pick them to cruise to a finals appearance if the season ended today. The early returns on the calculated gambles they made this offseason are excellent, and there may not be a more stable organization from top to bottom in the NBA right now.
WEST: NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
Statistical Overview: *All metrics courtesy of Basketball Reference*
*Note: Four factor metrics are actuals, with league rank in parentheses*
Statistical Surprise: Three Point Defense?
In the time since Willie Green has taken over as the head coach, the Pelicans have committed to defending the rim at all costs. It’s evident when you watch them play: New Orleans’ guards and wings are quick to help off their man in order to close off driving lanes, and Pelicans’ big men park themselves in the paint. It’s been an effective strategy for limiting field goal attempts at the rim, as the Pelicans allow the 7th-fewest restricted area field goal attempts per game this season, and were 8th last year. On the other hand, being so aggressive against drives has its downside: New Orleans allows a ton of opponent three-point attempts. In 2022-23, the Pelicans gave up 36.0 3PA per game, which ranked 23rd, but they managed to have the NBA’s 6th best defense because opponents shot the lowest percentage in the league on those looks (33.9%). Because opponent three-point shooting is notoriously variable from year to year, many pointed to this as an obvious area for regression in 2023-24.
However, so far this season opponents have actually shot even worse from distance (33.4%). The Pels have doubled down on their willingness to cede 3PA as well, as they allow 40.1 per game, which ranks dead last. I suppose it’s possible that New Orleans has figured out a trick for getting opponents to miss threes, and it is worth noting that they do have impressive length (Herbert Jones, Brandon Ingram, Trey Murphy, Dyson Daniels) among their perimeter defenders. I’m still dubious of the overall viability of their plan of defense: Even just the pure bump in volume from 36 to 40 opponent attempts per game has been a big part in their defense slipping from #6 to #14, and I’m worried that when the inevitable opponent conversion regression comes, the Pels’ defense might fall off a cliff.
Notable Storyline: Getting Healthier
After battling through numerous injuries for seemingly the entirety of 2022-23, the first quarter of the 2023-24 season has been more of the same. Key rotation pieces like Trey Murphy, C.J. McCollum, and Jose Alvarado have all missed double-digit games. However, in the last week, New Orleans has finally gotten closer to full strength. McCollum’s return from a collapsed lung gives them some much needed shooting and scoring, and Alvarado is the feisty defensive engine of their second unit. However, no lineup addition looms larger than Trey Murphy, who has fully recovered from offseason knee surgery and seems to have no limitations, as he played 30 minutes in their win on Monday over the Kings. Murphy’s ability to hold his own on the wing defensively while also bombing threes (7.3 3PA per 36 minutes last season) is crucial for the Pels, as so many of their players are either offense or defense-only. Murphy’s two-way ability unlocks so many of New Orlean’s best lineups, and although he comes off the bench to start games, expect him to be on the floor to close games more often than not.
As is always the case for New Orleans, it’s anyone’s guess as to how long their current health status will actually hold. While they do have their full complement of players, it’s absolutely essential that they make some real headway in the standings, and we’ve seen that they are capable of doing just that: In their healthiest stretch early last season, they ripped off a 12-2 run that saw them briefly take hold of the #1 seed in the West.
Overachiever: Jordan Hawkins
After finishing the 2022-23 season 28th in 3PAr (34.4%) and 29th in three point attempts per game (30.1), the Pelicans front office clearly knew they needed to add shooting heading into 2023-24. Neither of New Orleans’ two leading scorers (Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram) are high-volume three-point shooters, and key support pieces like Herbert Jones and Jonas Valanciunas are reluctant from the outside as well. Given how many three-point attempts the Pelicans concede on the defensive end, winning becomes exceedingly difficult when you finish nearly every game at a disadvantage from beyond the arc.
Thus, the Pelicans selection of UConn sniper Jordan Hawks with the 14th pick of the 2023 draft was a logical choice. Hawkins came into the league with a reputation as a high-volume three-point shooter, and he has been exactly as advertised so far in his rookie year. His 37.3% conversion rate from distance might seem merely OK on the surface, but when you consider that he’s getting up a whopping 9.2 3PA per 36 minutes, his profile becomes significantly more impressive. Hawkins has an exceptionally quick release, and he is comfortable shooting off the catch, dribble, or on the move. While the Pelicans were missing Trey Murphy and C.J. McCollum for much of the early part of the season, his shooting really helped keep their offense afloat.
To be clear, Hawkins offers very little outside of his three-point stroke at this point in his NBA career. He’s not a distributor or rim attacker, and his slight frame makes him a defensive liability against opposing wings. In the Pels most recent game on Monday, Hawkins was a healthy scratch for the first time this season, and he may not figure much in the rotation as long as New Orleans is fully healthy. However, his shooting makes him a critical depth piece for this team, and the early returns on him carving out an NBA career are extremely promising.
Outlook Shift?
Before the season, I ranked New Orleans in tier 4, and I predicted that they would end up missing the play-in by finishing 11th in the West. My main concern was (and still is) their historical inability to stay healthy: I just don’t trust that Zion Williamson will stay injury-free for the entirety of the season.
However, the Pels had their fair share of injury issues through the first quarter of the season, and they’ve managed to keep their heads above water. When they have their full roster available, they are a dangerous team that I expect them to play at a tier 3 level.
With that being said, they’ve still yet to be without Williamson or Brandon Ingram for a significant stretch, and I do have real concerns about how sustainable their defense is. As a result, I can’t quite move them out of tier 4 just yet, but they’re close: If they put together a stretch of rock solid play over the next month or two, it might be enough to boost them into the top 6 in the West.