*For a refresher on the the format of this season preview series, click here
**All stats courtesy of basketballreference.com or NBA.com unless stated otherwise
TIER 1: DEFINITE CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS
Historically, the NBA is not a league of parity. As a sport, basketball does not lend itself to flukiness - there are too many possessions and too many points scored for a weird bounce to decide a game like it can in hockey or soccer. Baseball can be decided by one swing of the bat or a dominant pitcher, the NFL has single elimination playoffs; but in the NBA, the best team almost always comes out victorious. In a lot of years, this tier could legitimately be 2 or even 1 team long. However, since the breakup of Kevin Durant and the Warriors following the 2019 season, the NBA has been in a period of relative wide-openness. In the last 4 seasons, we’ve seen 4 different champions and 7 different teams reach the finals. It’s possible that Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets’ dominant run through the 2023 playoffs has kicked off the beginning of a new dynasty in the NBA, but as we stand right now, it’s too early to say that definitively.
The five teams you will see previewed below represent the five teams I believe to be capable of winning the NBA championship as we enter the season. For each of these teams, anything short of a finals appearance would have to be considered a disappointment - the ceiling is high and so are the expectations. The regular season for these teams is about staying healthy, maintaining or developing chemistry, and peaking at the right time. The real season begins in April.
*For a refresher on the the layout of this season preview series, click here
**All stats courtesy of basketballreference.com or NBA.com unless stated otherwise
1. DENVER NUGGETS
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is expected to miss start of season due to injury/suspension/other*
Team Overview: Start of a Dynasty?
The reigning champs return the best player in basketball in Nikola Jokic and the best five man unit in basketball in their starting group, and as such should be considered the favorites to win a second consecutive Larry O’Brien trophy. Both Jokic and Jamal Murray opted not to compete in this past summer’s FIBA World Cup, and as such should be refreshed and healthy right from the start of the season. The Nuggets did suffer some key losses from their bench unit a year ago, and are putting a lot of faith in some very unproven youngsters to fortify their depth. Because of the concerns I have with Denver’s depth, I think they may struggle relative to the other top teams in the league through the middle of the season once injuries hit and the dog days of winter set in. However, Nikola Jokic is one of the league’s most durable stars, appearing in at least 69 games in each of his 8 NBA seasons to this point, and as long as he’s on the court Denver will have a top-level offense. The regular season will be about keeping their stars fresh and figuring out who amongst their young players is ready for playoff minutes - or can be moved for a more playoff-ready veteran.
Notable Offseason Move: Departure of Bruce Brown
Unable to offer sixth man Bruce Brown more than a starting salary of $7.8 million, Denver was forced to watch him depart for Indiana when the Pacers offered him a deal worth up to $45 million over two years. Brown was an integral part of the Nuggets backcourt rotation, bringing energy and intensity on a nightly basis and also providing some much needed supplementary ball handling outside of Murray. Without Brown, more load will be put on the back of Murray as an initiator, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as the team’s best perimeter defender, and Christian Braun as an athletic slasher in transition. Brown’s loss will be especially felt in the event that one of Denver’s starting unit goes down to injury, as he was capable of stepping in seamlessly for anyone other than Jokic.
One Big Question: Is Internal Development Enough to Build an Adequate Bench?
In addition to Brown, the Nuggets also saw steady veteran forward Jeff Green depart via free agency and emergent big man Vlatko Cancar go down for the season with a torn ACL over the summer. With limited spending power at their disposal, the Nuggets could only bring back PG Reggie Jackson and C DeAndre Jordan, neither of whom was in the rotation for the majority of the 2023 playoff run, and bring in G/F Justin Holiday, who is 34 and coming off the worst season of his career. Denver’s second unit is going to be relying heavily on second year wings Christian Braun and Peyton Watson as well as a trio of 2023 draftees in Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett and Hunter Tyson. Braun was a consistent piece of the rotation in his rookie year and the organization seems to be very high on Watson, but relying on such young and unproven players to step in as quality rotation pieces right away is unquestionably a gamble. Head coach Michael Malone will likely experiment with multiple different lineups at the start of the season - which youngster(s) can earn his trust and carve out a role is one of the key areas to monitor early on for Denver.
One Area I’m Sure: Two-Man Excellence
Now entering their seventh season (not counting 2021-22, which Murray missed with a torn ACL) together, one area I have absolutely no doubts about with Denver is the pure dominance of the Jamal Murray/Nikola Jokic two-man game. Each player plays so perfectly off the other - defenses have to respect Murray’s scoring ability off the dribble, but if the man guarding Jokic dares to overextend in help, Jokic winds up headed downhill in a 3 vs. 2 situation, where he excels at making the perfect read. The mind-meld between these two players is absolutely beautiful to watch, and as long as they are surrounded by an adequate level of shooting, it’s impossible to defend.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Peyton Watson
The 30th pick of the 2022 draft, Watson was a somewhat surprising selection considering he averaged 12.7 minutes and 3.3 points per game in his lone season at UCLA. Watson was considered a long-term project as a prospect , and he saw very limited action in his rookie year, appearing in just 23 regular season games. However, if this year’s summer league is any indication, Watson might just be ready to break out. An explosive athlete standing 6’8” with a wingspan over 7 feet in length, Watson has all the physical tools, and he has showcased impressive defensive instincts as well. His offensive game is likely to be a bit of a rollercoaster, as he is an inconsistent shooter and has the propensity to be a little over aggressive as a driver, but he has legitimate pop around the basket and should thrive as a cutter playing next to Jokic. The organization is reportedly expecting big things from Watson this season and I expect him to be called upon to replace some of Bruce Brown’s defensive juice and transition finishing with the bench unit.
Regular Season Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 55-27 (FanDuel o/u 52.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 3rd
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 14th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 5th
BOSTON CELTICS
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
Team Overview: Is this Finally the Year?
After a disappointing end to a promising 2023 campaign, Boston has made a serious shake up to their core heading into this year, sacrificing a little heart and hustle for an upgrade in overall talent. The Celtics have been consistently excellent teams during the Jayson Tatum/Jaylen Brown era, but they’ve yet to get over the hump and win the big prize. On one hand, President of Basketball Operations Brad Stevens doubled down on the current core by signing Brown to the largest contract extension in NBA history. On the other, he signaled that a change was needed by dealing away 9-year Celtic Marcus Smart, long thought to be the heart and soul of both the team and the basketball-viewing segment of the city. Then, he countered the Bucks big acquisition of Damian Lillard by trading for Jrue Holiday, maybe the league’s best Lillard defender and a playmaker to replace Smart’s passing. While the young core of Tatum and Brown still means Boston’s contending window is open for the long term, there is no doubt that this offseason’s moves are representative of an increased urgency within the organization to win right now.
Notable Offseason Move: A Unicorn in Boston
Always a unique talent due to his combination of size and skill level, Kristaps Porzingis quietly put together his best season a year ago while playing with a middling Wizards team. Porzingis set a career high in points per game (23.2) while also posting the best true shooting percentage of his career by over 4 percentage points. Perhaps most importantly, Porzingis was able to stay healthy - his 65 games played was his best mark since 2016-17. When on the court, Porzingis stretches the floor beyond the 3pt line and has also worked hard to develop his interior scoring game both in isolation and as a roll man. Critically, Porzingis gives defenses a different look than Tatum or Brown and provides Boston somewhere else to turn if and when the primary options stagnate. After dealing away incumbent big man Robert Williams in the Jrue Holiday deal (more on that other notable offseason move below), Boston is making a big bet on Porzingis’ defense as well. He should be an asset for Boston in terms of rim protection, where his length and shot-blocking instincts have shown in the past. However, he’s far less scheme-versatile than Williams, who was capable of switching out onto perimeter players and holding his own. Boston’s defense has the potential to be the NBA’s best, but Porzingis will have to hold up his end of the bargain.
One Big Question: Just How Personal is It?
As publicly mild-mannered and team-first of a star as there is in the league, I don’t expect we will hear any sort of vitriol towards Milwaukee out of the mouth of Jrue Holiday this year. However, make no mistake - it has to sting that after being so crucial to delivering the organization a championship, Holiday was dumped by the Bucks in favor of Damian Lillard. Now that fate has brought him to Boston, Holiday will have his chance for revenge. On paper, Milwaukee and Boston appear to be on a crash course to meet each other in the Eastern Conference Finals. Holiday will undoubtedly be Boston’s primary option on Dame, tasked with slowing down the Bucks’ best scorer. It’s a job that Holiday has done admirably in the past, outplaying Lillard in a first round sweep back in 2018 when Jrue was still with the Pelicans. While the matchup might not be quite as personal for Lillard, he’s never been one to back down from any challenge and best believe he’ll understand the stakes. Watching two of the most mentally tough competitors in the league go after it will be absolutely thrilling theater, and if the basketball gods are just, we’ll get seven games of it next spring.
One Area I’m Sure: Suffocating and (Still) Smart
I’m extremely high on Boston’s defense. It might seem like a bit of reductive analysis, but one of Boston’s strengths will be their ability to consistently play lineups where they have plus length and size at every position. The Celtics will be fast, physical and extremely intelligent. Holiday and Derrick White make up the best defensive guard tandem in the league. Even at an advanced age, Al Horford can capably guard across multiple positions and brings an incredible amount of playoff experience. With Porzingis and Holiday in town to take on more of an offensive load, I expect Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to be even more locked in on the defensive end as well. Marcus Smart’s toughness on the defensive end is a loss, but Holiday and White are more than capable of playing his on-ball perimeter defensive role, and new additions like Oshae Brissett and Jordan Walsh bring even more length and physical tools to the equation on the perimeter. Come playoff time, I expect Boston to lean on their defense to set the tone and control games.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Jordan Walsh
The 38th pick in the 2023 draft, the expert consensus on Walsh pre-draft was that he had intriguing physical tools and defensive potential but a long way to go before he was an NBA level player on the offensive end. After watching him in Summer league, I’m not sure that Walsh is as much of a project as it might have initially seemed. Walsh plays extremely hard, he’s a very fluid athlete, and his shooting mechanics look more than workable. I don’t expect Walsh to start the season in the rotation, but if he can adjust to the mental aspect of the NBA game and his shot can be passable, he has a chance to work his way into a valuable rotation role as the team gears up for a playoff push and needs all the wing defense it can get.
Regular Season Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 58-24 (FanDuel o/u 54.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 1st
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 2nd
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 1st
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
Team Overview: Message Received
In the 2020 playoffs, heavily favored Milwaukee was upset by Miami in the second round. Prior to the 2021 season, with Giannis Antetokounmpo extension eligible but not yet signed, the Bucks made a big swing, trading multiple first round picks to New Orleans for star guard Jrue Holiday. Less than a month following the trade, Antetokounmpo committed to the Bucks via a 5 year contract extension and about 8 months after that, the Bucks won their first NBA championship in 50 years. This past offseason, following a devastating playoff upset at the hands of the Heat, Giannis had the following to say: “So I'm a Milwaukee Buck. But most importantly, I'm a winner. I want to win. And I have to do whatever it takes for me to win. And if there's a better situation for me to win the Larry O'Brien, I have to take that better situation” (CBS Sports). In late September, General Manager Jon Horst let his franchise icon know he had been heard, acquiring superstar point guard Damian Lillard via trade. It’s a bittersweet moment for Milwaukee and their fans - as part of the deal, Holiday was sent out (and eventually ended up with the rival Celtics). Holiday was a key piece of the 2021 championship team, an all-star and all-defensive team member, and by all accounts an elite teammate. However, whereas Holiday is a star and a tremendous support piece, Lillard is the type of superstar who can win playoff games by himself. The messaging is clear - good is not good enough, complacency will not be tolerated, Giannis is chasing great and the Bucks are right there with him. It’s back to championship or bust in Milwaukee.
Notable Offseason Move: Dame Time
For the first time in his career, Damian Lillard will be playing for a legitimate championship contender. The pressure and expectations will be sky-high right from game one this season, but if there’s any player built for the big moment it’s Lillard. It might seem strange to say considering he’ll be joining forces with a 2-time MVP, but Lillard will be Milwaukee’s best offensive player and the ball will be in his hands in crunch time. The thought of a Lillard/Giannis pick & roll is legitimately terrifying - between Lillard’s unlimited range and Giannis’ unstoppable attacks of the rim, defenses will have an impossible decision of where to dedicate resources. For the first time in the playoffs, Milwaukee will be a team built around their offense, with a go-to halfcourt action and a player that prevents teams from loading up the paint. On the other hand, the defensive downgrade from Holiday to Lillard is steep, and there’s not an obvious answer on Milwaukee’s roster for who will handle difficult perimeter assignments. The Bucks will have to rely heavily on their excellent back line rim protection to carry their D - a strategy that should be sound in the regular season but may prove exploitable in the postseason.
One Big Question: Built to Beat the Champs?
If I were designing a team to beat Denver, there would be two key elements I’d focus on. First, I’d want to make sure I have a pick and roll ball handler who thrives as a pull-up shooter against drop coverage. It’s critical to consistently put Nikola Jokic in the action and pull him out from under the rim, forcing him to move his feet and guard. Secondly, I’d want to have two bigs I can play together - one to bang with Jokic and make his life as difficult as possible, and the other to roam the baseline and still make sure we are adequately protecting the rim. As I look at Milwaukee’s roster post Lillard trade, I see the team best equipped to battle the Nuggets. Other than maybe Stephen Curry, Lillard is the NBA’s premier perimeter pull-up threat. His range extends to 30+ feet with ease, and we’ve seen him put Jokic in the torture chamber before, such as the 2021 playoffs when Lillard averaged 34 points per game in a first round series against Denver. Milwaukee fits the bill on the back line as well, as Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez are both high level rim protectors, capable of taking turns on Jokic while the other patrols the paint. While Milwaukee vs. Boston is the matchup that will get all the attention, and rightfully so as either team will have to win that series first before they worry about the Nuggets, I’ll also be locked in to any full-strength regular season battles we see between Milwaukee and the champs.
One Area I’m Sure: The Bench is a Concern
Even before the Lillard acquisition, which saw Milwaukee move on from not only Holiday but also last season's starting shooting guard, Grayson Allen, the Bucks bench looked thin. Reliable bench pieces from 2022-23 such as Jevon Carter, Joe Ingles and Wesley Matthews are all gone, and who will be replacing their minutes is unclear. Malik Beasley was signed to a minimum contract after failing to crack the Lakers’ playoff rotation a season ago, and Jae Crowder will play a key role after he was squeezed out of Milwaukee’s own playoff rotation in 2023. Big man Bobby Portis is one of the better regular season bench players in the league, but his lack of defense on the interior makes him difficult to play in the highest level playoff series. While it’s true that rotations shorten in the playoffs and Milwaukee’s best 5-man unit will be somewhere between great and completely dominant, they may find themselves relying on multiple completely unproven youngsters to get them through the regular season. In an Eastern Conference that figures to be a war at the top between the Bucks and Celtics, Milwaukee’s bench may end up being the deciding factor in who gets home court throughout the playoffs.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Jae Crowder
It’s easy to forget about Crowder after his strange 2022-23 season. He started the year away from the Suns, demanding a trade for reasons that are still not entirely known. After a mideason deal to the Bucks, Crowder struggled to earn consistent rotation minutes, eventually playing just 18 seconds in the Bucks final game of the season, a Game 5 loss to Miami in the first round of the playoffs. It’s possible that at age 33, Crowder is simply unable to contribute at a high level any longer, but he’s quietly a massive piece of the optimal version of this Bucks team. At his best, Crowder brings physicality and an abundance of playoff experience at the 4 spot, capable of handling tough defensive assignments against opposing forwards and unafraid of letting it fly from 3 on the offensive end. Crowder could potentially play the P.J. Tucker role from the Bucks 2021 championship team if he has a bounceback season, defending his butt off and bringing some edge to an otherwise mellow Milwaukee roster. If he fades away over the course of this year, it will be a massive disappointment to a Bucks front office that sacrificed 5 second round picks to bring him in last year.
Regular Season Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 55-27 (FanDuel o/u 53.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 4th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 9th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 3rd
PHOENIX SUNS
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is expected to miss start of season due to injury/suspension/other*
Team Overview: The Time is Now
It’s nearly impossible to be more all-in than the 2023-24 Phoenix Suns. A year ago at this time, Phoenix had a rock-solid core built around Devin Booker with young wings Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson, hall of fame point guard Chris Paul, and 2022 Coach of the Year Monty Williams. The Suns also had control of every single one of their draft picks through the 2029 draft. A year later, the Suns have a new owner and Booker is all that remains. By trading for 2-time finals MVP Kevin Durant midway through the 2023 season and 3-time all-star Bradley Beal this past summer, the Suns signified a fundamental shift in their team building strategy. They are ready to win right now, future consequences be damned. The fit of the roster is not perfect and the rotation is littered with minimum contract players who are unproven playoff contributors, but the top-level talent in Phoenix is undeniable. If Durant, Booker and Beal can find health and on-court chemistry, the ceiling for the 2023-24 Suns is sky-high.
Notable Offseason Move: The Beal Deal
When reports first started circulating that the hapless Washington Wizards and Bradley Beal were finally headed for a long-overdue divorce, few mentioned Phoenix as a logical landing spot. The Suns had just sacrificed a ton of assets to acquire Durant, and Beal’s outsized contract looked like a tough squeeze onto their books. However, once the initial shock of the deal actually being completed wore off, it became easier to understand the rationale. With the Suns clearly believing they needed a talent upgrade after a frustrating second round loss to the Nuggets, Beal represented their only realistic path to another star given how limited Phoenix was from an asset perspective. With new owner Mat Ishbia making it clear that luxury tax concerns are not a constraint, replacing an aging Chris Paul with Beal is a clear win in terms of upside for the 2023-24 season. While it’s not a perfect on court fit between the Suns new big three, each player has some experience and success playing off ball and all three should be highly motivated to win at the highest levels.
One Big Question: Has Beal Started to Decline?
Many will focus on the Suns’ depth concerns, and those are certainly valid. However, the bigger question to me and one that I believe will truly sink or swim this team is how much Bradley Beal has left in the tank. After earning his first All-NBA selection in 2021, Beal has struggled through two consecutive injury plagued years. While his massive contract and no-trade clause were certainly factors as well, it is worth noting that the acquisition cost for the Suns paled in comparison to other recent deals for stars, and interest in Beal around the league was not expansive. There’s many reasons to believe Beal will bounce back - he’s only entering his age 30 season and he’ll be playing for a legitimate championship contender for the first time in his career. Unlike Washington, where he has seen a massive share of the playmaking and shot creating duties over the past few years, he will get to feast on easier matchups and scoring opportunities playing next to Durant and Booker. I really hope Beal is healthy come playoff time, because his ability to impact winning basketball is one of the fascinating storylines of this season.
One Area I’m Sure: Mid-Range Assassins
In the Paul/Booker era, the Suns saw great success in the pull-up mid-range game, letting Paul and Booker operate out of the high pick and roll and slice up drop coverage. While neither Durant or Beal have the passing prowess of Paul, each is excellent at working to their spot inside the arc and converting at a high rate. At some point in the highest level playoff series, the math of matching 3s with 2s becomes an issue - see last year’s Denver series - and this is where Beal’s catch and shoot ability will need to come into play. However, in the regular season when teams are used to focusing their defense on limiting layups and threes and have less time to gameplan, Phoenix’s stars will make a killing finding soft spots to operate between 12-18 feet. The ability of all three of Durant, Beal and Booker to go get a bucket or a high percentage shot in isolation will make the Suns very difficult to deal with in the closing possessions of close games.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Eric Gordon
If you’ve watched a fair share of basketball in the past 15 years, you’re likely familiar with Eric Gordon and might be confused by his inclusion in this section. However, I believe it’s possible that Gordon becomes the very best value signing of the 2023 offseason. Perhaps willing to take less money to play a prominent role on a championship team, Gordon inked a minimum deal with the Suns and looks like one of the the leading candidates to close games next to Phoenix’s big three. Gordon stretches defenses with his ability to not just bomb threes but shoot from well beyond the 3pt line. He is an underrated driver and decision maker attacking closeouts. He is also extremely strong, capable of defending bigger players and handling tough matchups in switching schemes, which the Suns will assuredly try at certain points this year. It’s also fair to mention that he’ll be 35 this year and hasn’t gone deep into the playoffs since 2020, and it’s possible that he is at least partially on the decline. However, I’m betting that Gordon re-emerges as an extremely valuable role player and a very nice fit in many of Phoenix’s best lineups.
Regular Season Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 52-30 (FanDuel o/u 52.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 2nd
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 15th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 6th
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
Team Overview: No More Fork in the Road
To some it may be surprising to see the Warriors still in this tier, but to me they still very much deserve inclusion amongst the NBA’s elite. There were many “season from hell” elements to 2022-23 for Golden State - of course the infamous Draymond Green punch of Jordan Poole in training camp, but also Andrew Wiggins missing most of the second half of the season for personal reasons. The Green/Poole incident symbolized the Warriors dilemma last year, as they were a team divided by two different timelines - the veteran group pushing for more title chasing (and in Green’s case, a new contract) while the youngsters were itching for expanded roles. Combine that internal tension with the hangover of a championship run the year prior and it makes sense why Golden State appeared to be completely out of gas by the end of their second round dispatching at the hands of the Lakers. This year, I expect a different vibe right from the start of the season. Stephen Curry is still playing at an MVP level, and while Green and Klay Thompson have taken a step back from their respective heydays, they still have elite chemistry and so much championship experience. If Wiggins and Kevon Looney can stay healthy, and the youngsters who do remain (Moses Moody, Jonathan Kuminga) can buy into their roles, this team has all the pieces to return to their 2022 championship form.
Notable Offseason Move: Preserving the Salary Slot
Coming off a truly horrific playoff performance and about to enter the first year of a massive contract extension, Jordan Poole was one of the most obvious trade candidates of this past summer. The surprise was what Golden State ended up getting back for Poole - future hall of fame point guard and longtime Warriors nemesis, Chris Paul. On the court, Paul does fill a role for Golden State if he’s willing to accept a reduction in usage. He can be a steadying presence on a second unit that has struggled greatly in recent years with turnovers, and his famed basketball IQ surely appeals to Steve Kerr and the Warriors vets. However, there’s reasons to believe it won’t be a seamless fit as well. Paul has thrived in his career playing out of high pick and roll with a rolling big man, a style of offense Golden State doesn’t usually play and does not really have the personnel to adopt. He is still an intelligent defender but has clearly lost a step athletically, and backcourt combinations with him and Curry both on the court are very small, especially for a team that has traditionally done a lot of switching. Perhaps most importantly, Paul has been known for grating on teammates and coaches with his domineering personality, and with a similar figure in Draymond Green already established within the organization, the Warriors locker room may not be big enough for both men. Ultimately, I believe the marriage between Paul (and his contract) and Golden State is temporary, a vehicle for the Warriors to find a better fitting player or collection of players. We’ve seen them do this in the past, when they were able to grab D’Angelo Russell back from Brooklyn as part of the Kevin Durant sign-and-trade in the summer of 2019. Russell never made sense as a fit next to Curry and Thompson, but eventually his contract turned into Andrew Wiggins, who was an integral part of the 2022 championship team.
One Big Question: Jonathan Kuminga
Jordan Poole is now out the door, as is 2020 #2 overall pick James Wiseman. Draymond Green is back on a shiny new 4 year, $100 million contract. The Warriors have clearly chosen to back their veteran core and chase championships rather than continue to try and line up their succession plan. However, two key youngsters from the 2021 draft remain - Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody. Moody has a pretty clear fit, as he’s an improving shooter and a physical presence on the wing who profiles as a solid role player and potentially low end starter at some point down the road. When it comes to Kuminga, there’s a much higher degree of variance and a seemingly rockier relationship between player and organization. The #7 overall pick in 2021, Kuminga is a freaky athlete with the size and length to play either forward spot. He’s shown flashes of brilliance in his career, and had a productive run in at the end of last season when called upon to fill in while Wiggins was away from the team. However, it’s also clear that he has not earned the full trust of Steve Kerr. In the playoffs, Kuminga appeared in only 10 out of the Warriors 13 games and averaged just 6 minutes per contest, and his frustration with his lack of role was evident even just to the TV viewer. The Warriors need him to be a versatile forward off the bench, able to change games defensively and utilize his athleticism as a cutter in Kerr’s ball and player movement system. Whether he buys in or continues to agitate for on ball reps and stardom as he inches closer to the end of his rookie contract is a definite x-factor for Golden State’s season.
One Area I’m Sure: Renewed Emphasis on Defense
While everyone remembers the 3pt. barrages of the early splash bros days and the unstoppable feeling of a Kevin Durant/Stephen Curry offensive attack, an underrated key to the Warriors dynasty has always been the defensive end. The versatility, heart and intelligence of Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala were the lifeblood of the Warriors defensive identity. In their 2022 championship resurgence, it was the defense that set the tone - Golden State ranked 2nd in defensive rating during the 2021-22 season in comparison to 16th on the offensive end. The defensive slippage last year can be attributed to a lot of different factors, but in my opinion, eliminating Poole and Wiseman while adding a full season of Gary Payton II to the rotation improves their defensive outlook by leaps and bounds. I also expect a different mindset to permeate this locker room right from the season’s opening night - I think this is a much more united group that understands how crucial it is to get off to a hot start and bank wins. In a long regular season, a consistent defensive effort can carry a team through injuries and off nights, and no team understands that better than these veteran laden Warriors.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Dario Saric
An underrated free agent addition who had to settle for a minimum contract with Golden State, Dario Saric is a guy who could end up playing an outsized role this year. His ability to space the floor makes him a good fit in the frontcourt next to either Draymond Green or Kevon Looney, and he’s had success in the past playing center in bench lineups - most notably in Phoenix alongside Chris Paul. Saric is also an instinctual cutter and passer who should fit in well in Kerr’s system, able to make the right reads off the ball and find guys cutting backdoor when he is positioned at the elbow or the top of the key. Veterans like David West and Nemanja Bjelica have thrived for Kerr in a similar role, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Saric plays well enough this year to price himself out of Golden State’s budget come next offseason.
Regular Season Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 54-28 (FanDuel o/u 47.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 7th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 4th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 2nd