Season Preview Series 2023-24: Tier 4
There is no shortage of regular season intrigue for these 5 squads
TIER 4: TEAMS EXPECTING TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS
In a typical year, tier 4 is a mixed bag of veteran-ish teams wandering aimlessly through the NBA’s middle ground, and exciting young teams on the organizational upswing. This year largely follows that pattern, with the interesting wrinkle that a few of the teams in this tier can be reasonably grouped in both of the above categories. A successful, B grade season for a tier 4 team is making it through the play-in (or avoiding all together) and putting up a reasonable fight in a first round playoff series against a more talented team. Most NBA seasons see at least one tier 4 team put the pieces together (or hit the high end of variance) and make the leap up into tier 3 (i.e. 2022-23 Sacramento Kings). However, the more common tier shift is the downgrade from tier 4 to tier 5, resulting from a key injury, player regression, poor coaching, roster mismanagement, or some combination of the above (i.e 2022-23 Toronto Raptors, 2022-23 Chicago Bulls).
Tier 4 teams can be some of the more fascinating teams to follow throughout the regular season because each regular season win means so much and they are usually filled with players who have a point to prove. At the same time, these teams can be infuriating because there are often varying degrees of poor coaching, front office desperation and players who have a point to prove. The introduction of the play-in tournament has also really juiced tier 4 - these are the teams who have by far the most to play for in late March.
*For a refresher on the the layout of this season preview series, click here
**All stats courtesy of basketballreference.com or NBA.com unless stated otherwise
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
Team Overview: Calm the Chaos
Last season, it just never felt like the Timberwolves got the chance to hit their stride. After their monster haul they traded for Rudy Gobert prior to the season (4 1st round picks, 1 1st round pick swap, and five players) drew intense criticism, the Wolves were under the national microscope right away and fell flat with a 5-8 start. Just as they were starting to pull out of it, star big man Karl-Anthony Towns went down right after Thanksgiving with a calf injury that would end up keeping him out until late March. At the trade deadline, Minnesota made a major change at point guard, swapping out D’Angelo Russell in favor of Mike Conley - an upgrade, but still a major disruption to the team’s style of play. Finally, in the season’s final game, all hell broke loose when Gobert and veteran forward Kyle Anderson got into a heated sideline exchange, leading Gobert to throw a punch at Anderson and be thrown out of the arena by his own team. Insult to injury? After the game, in a fit of frustration, emergent young wing Jaden McDaniels fractured his hand after punching a curtain that unbeknownst to him, had a steel beam behind it. With all the madness going on, it’s very easy to get lost in the weeds and forget how talented this team is. When you take a step back, the Wolves roster does legitimately have potential. Between Towns and budding superstar guard Anthony Edwards, Minnesota has a pair of players with All-NBA upside. Conley is as reliable of a teammate and locker room presence as there is in the league, and his stability and unselfishness at the point will bring much needed structure to the court. Overpaid as he is and overvalued as he was in trade, Gobert is still a plus defender at the rim, and McDaniels is an elite defender on the wing. Combine all of that with a pretty deep bench, and the Wolves are more than capable of leaping into tier 3 before the year is over - if they can just limit the nonsense and keep the focus on the court.
Notable Offseason Move: A Sneaky Second Rounder
As a result of the haul they gave up for Gobert, the Wolves are going to be very limited in their ability to add young talent to this team. Creativity will be key, and when Minnesota does take aim, it’s crucial that they hit their mark. Wolves brass fired their first shot post-Gobert at the 2023 draft, when they traded 2 future 2nd round picks to San Antonio for the draft rights for this year’s 33rd overall pick, Canadian forward Leonard Miller. It’s extremely premature to say for certain, but from what I saw out of Miller at this year’s Summer League, I think Minnesota might have a player in their pipeline. Miller spent last season playing with the G-League Ignite, and was somewhat overshadowed by Ignite’s star point guard Scoot Henderson. Quietly, Miller was productive, averaging 18.0 points and 11.0 rebounds per game across 24 contests while shooting over 55% from the field. At the summer league, Miller continued to stuff the stat sheet, averaging 15 points and 8 rebounds per game across his 5 games in Vegas. Miller also showed off an improved 3pt. stroke (albeit in a small sample size), canning just under 37% of his triples. Miller’s activity is impressive, he flies up and down the court in transition and always seems to find himself around the ball whenever it goes up on the glass. He still has a ton to work on - his defense leaves a lot to be desired whether he’s trying to keep up with quicker players on the perimeter or bang with stronger players in the post, and he’s prone to getting sped up and out of control on the offensive end. However, he has a ton of intriguing tools to work with, and on a deep Minnesota team, he’ll be able to spend most of this year in the G-League for a second consecutive year, refining his craft. In an otherwise understated offseason for the Wolves, getting aggressive to acquire Miller may pay big dividends down the line.
One Big Question: The KAT Conundrum
To deny Karl-Anthony Towns’ talent is just silly. In any game he’s in he is guaranteed to have a few offensive moments that just leave you shaking your head in amazement. He can kill you in the post, where he has good footwork and the skill to score over both shoulders. He can kill you from outside, where he’s a legitimate shooting threat not only as a pick and pop player but also off the dribble, capable of making step back jumpers look easy. Having a big man like Towns who can string together 30 point games is a luxury that only a few other teams around the league can claim. However, when you watch Towns, you just can’t help but be left wanting more. He’s a sieve on defense, prone to silly fouls and mental mistakes, and he’s frequently too easy to score on at the rim. He can disappear for long stretches of games, too content to let others (both teammates and opponents) dictate when and where he gets his shots. It’s reductive analysis, but Towns just plays the game soft - he lacks that killer instinct that takes the very good to the great. In acquiring Rudy Gobert last year, Minnesota hoped that pairing Towns with another big man would mitigate some of his defensive concerns and allow him to flourish when defended by smaller players. We didn’t get to see a large enough sample size because of Towns’ injury, but from what we did see when the two were on the court together, it was not particularly pretty. Towns was marginalized on a crowded Minnesota floor, too often left hanging around the perimeter, uninvolved in the offensive actions. While Minnesota would surely take back the Gobert trade if they could and build differently around Towns and Anthony Edwards, the reality is that Gobert, with his declining play and outsized contract, is now unmovable. If Minnesota has any aims to recoup some of the draft capital they lost in the Gobert trade, or future financial concerns for when Towns’ salary spikes on his new maximum contract extension that starts in 2024-25, the best move might be to explore what he could bring back on the trade market. Towns should still be highly valued around the league, and Edwards by himself is still enough of a star to build a decent team around. It’s far from an easy call, and Minnesota is absolutely justified in taking a wait-and-see approach to learn more about their group this year. Nevertheless, a Towns trade may end up being the Wolves’ inevitable next step.
One Area I’m Sure: Depth is a Strength
After making a pair of under-the-radar signings in Shake Milton and Troy Brown Jr., Minnesota is one of the rare NBA teams that is legitimately 10+ players deep with proven NBA quality. Their starting lineup is highly talented, with stars (Edwards and Towns), solid veterans (Gobert and Conley), and a youngster with serious breakout potential (Jaden McDaniels). Kyle Anderson and Naz Reid are two of the better bench players in the NBA, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker had a really good run in Minnesota after being acquired at last year’s trade deadline. While the fit of the Wolves’ stars and their starting lineup in general is a concern, team President Tim Connelly has done a good job of giving head coach Chris Finch a bunch of different options to experiment with in order to find the best lineup mix. This season, I believe it’s critical that Minnesota uses their depth and roster quality to overwhelm teams during the regular season. While other teams will be at serious disadvantages when a starter or key bench piece has to miss time due to injury or rest, the Wolves can capably tap the next man up in their rotation. Having a dominating bench unit is a proven way to rack up regular season wins, and if Finch can figure out the best way to mix and match his starters with his quality bench pieces, Minnesota might be able to control key stretches of games. On the quest to avoid the play-in and reach the top 6 in the West, leaning into their overall roster quality is Minnesota’s best shot.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Jaden McDaniels
For all that Tim Connelly did give up to Utah in exchange for Gobert, the one piece he was reportedly unwilling to part with was young forward Jaden McDaniels. After the year that McDaniels had amidst the madness of 2022-23, Connelly’s commitment to him may end up being the one saving grace of that entire negotiation. A full time starter for the first time last season, McDaniels established himself as one of the NBA’s premier 3&D wings. McDaniels has excellent size and length at 6’9” with a near 7’0” wingspan, and he combines that with enough quickness and strength to guard elite players at any perimeter position. He also clearly prides himself on the defensive end, welcoming tough assignments night in and night out and competing regardless of what is going on around him. The “3” part of his game is a little bit behind the “D” part - while his 39.8% 3pt shooting in 2022-23 is more than adequate, his 3.4 attempts per game is not enough volume for a starting forward. He also doesn’t provide shot creation of his own - he never gets to the free throw line and has a very limited game off the dribble outside of straight line drives to the rim. However, in the role he projects to play in his career, he has the potential to be one of the truly elite role players in the league. I predict that by the end of this season, McDaniels will be talked about and coveted around the NBA in the same way that 3&D forwards like Mikal Bridges (pre-KD trade) and OG Anunoby have been. Minnesota has a gem in McDaniels.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 45-37 (FanDuel o/u 44.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 11th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 11th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 10th
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Projected Rotation:
*Note - at the time of article release, OKC has 16 guaranteed players on guaranteed contracts - they will need to waive one player prior to the beginning of the season*
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
Team Overview: The Slow Climb
Entering 2022-23, expectations were low for the Thunder. Their win total over/under was set in Vegas at a measly 23.5, clearly demonstrating a consensus belief that OKC would be one of the worst teams in the league. There was certainly some reason for excitement - young guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey had both flashed high levels of play, and OKC fans could take solace in the fact that General Manager Sam Presti, one of the most well-regarded executives in basketball, had already built up a cache of future draft capital. However, it looked like another season of tanking was in store for the Thunder, especially after the #2 overall pick in the 2022 draft, Chet Holmgren, was lost for the season with a foot injury before he even stepped on the court for training camp. Once the regular season started, OKC quickly flipped the script, putting an entertaining and competitive product on the court each night on their way to a 40 win season, making the play-in and falling just one win short of the playoffs. Gilgeous-Alexander took the leap from intriguing young talent to bonafide superstar, earning 1st team All-NBA honors and finishing 5th in the MVP vote. 2022 #12 overall pick Jalen Williams put together a spectacular first season, finishing 2nd in the Rookie of the Year vote and demonstrating signs of future stardom. Head coach Mark Daigneault showed off his chops, coaxing the league’s 13th rated defense out of a team without a true rim protecting presence, and getting a roster full of young players to buy in to competing every night through shifting roles and varying playing time. With Holmgren healthy, there was a thought entering the offseason that OKC might be ready to make a splash. Instead, Presti again emphasized patience, holding off on cashing in young players or picks for a big name. Oklahoma City has enough young talent that they might take a leap purely due to internal improvement - however it’s critical to remember that development is not always linear, and the Thunder’s progression may not immediately translate to the win column.
Notable Offseason Move: Notably Silent
As mentioned above, the moves not made were more descriptive of OKC’s offseason than any singular acquisition. The Thunder are evidently content with making 2023-24 about continuing to develop their young core, and learning what they have in some of their supporting pieces. It’s a defensible strategy, and given Oklahoma City’s proven ecosystem of quality coaching and excellent talent development, I believe it’s one that Thunder fans should have great confidence in. Coming into this year, I believe the Thunder have a few knowns - Gilgeous-Alexander is a superstar and Jalen Williams is on the track to stardom himself. I also believe in OKC’s ability to find and develop quality role players - take a look at the emergence of Isaiah Joe as a three-point weapon and Jaylin Williams (not the same person as Jalen Williams) as a legitimate stretch big as prime examples. With those assertions in tow, it makes sense that the key evaluations this year will center around two of Oklahoma City’s most recent top ten picks, Holmgren and Josh Giddey. If Holmgren hits, he’s a perfect fit next to SGA as a big man who can stretch the floor, be a weapon in transition, and clean up defensive messes at the rim. The Thunder just need to see it in action on the court and make sure that his thin frame can make it through the rigors of an 82-game season. With Giddey, the calculation becomes a bit more complex. Giddey has proven that he is a productive NBA player, putting together an impressive stat line of 16.6 ppg., 7.9 rpg., and 6.2 apg. last year in what was just his age 20 season. However, Giddey has major question marks as both a shooter and a defender. As a player who needs the ball in his hands to be an offensive threat, he may not be the best fit next to a star like Gilgeous-Alexander. If he puts together another big statistical year, Giddey may find himself helping the Thunder in a different way - as the centerpiece of a trade for a veteran.
One Big Question: Chet Watch
Typically when a team takes a player #2 overall in any draft, there is immediate pressure on that player to become the face of the franchise. The Thunder are unique - in what was supposed to be a high profile rookie year for Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander emerged as the unquestioned #1 building block for the team and Jalen Williams showed he might be capable of being an elite sidekick. Between those two ascensions, the burden on Holmgren has lessened significantly, undoubtedly a positive development in order to give him the necessary time to grow accustomed to the NBA. Simultaneously, it should not be forgotten how talented Holmgren is just because he’s been out of national sight and mind for the past year. This was the #2 pick in the draft for a reason - Holmgren stands 7’0 tall, has good shot blocking instincts, and has a high skill level that includes an ability to shoot from the outside and attack the basket off the dribble. Just because the Thunder are not necessarily desperate for him to turn into an All-Star or All-NBA caliber player does not mean he does not have a chance at it. Holmgren’s biggest concern might be his lack of strength - his wiry frame is not only an issue for defending in the post and rebounding, but it also creates concerns about his long-term health and durability. The Thunder will surely have some protective measures in place for him as he returns from a serious foot injury, but at some point he will have to prove his ability to take on a full workload. I’ll be interested to see how much the Thunder pair him with last year’s nominal starting center, Jaylin Williams, as Williams can keep the floor spaced with his shooting while also taking on the task of guarding opposing big men, taking some physical stress off of Holmgren. If Holmgren shows signs of future stardom this year, Oklahoma City may really be cooking with gas. While I believe they will be a consistent playoff team with or without Holmgren becoming a star, he may be the key to them unlocking a true championship ceiling. His development and fit with the rest of the roster is the key storyline this year in Oklahoma City, and it may be on the shortlist of key storylines league-wide.
One Area I’m Sure: Jalen Williams is the Second Star
While not a completely apples-to-apples comparison because of the difference in the two players’ offensive roles within their respective teams, any efficiency metric that you look at between Jalen Williams and 1st place Rookie of the Year finisher Paolo Banchero will tilt in Williams’ favor. Williams’ true shooting percentage in 2022-23 of 60.1% (compared to 52.9% for Banchero) was 3 full percentage points above the positional average for shooting guards. Comparison with Banchero aside, the outlook for Williams’ future in the league is extremely promising. Williams took over as a full-time starter in mid-December 2022, and in games that he started last season averaged over 15 points per game while shooting over 50% from the field and over 37% from three. Simply put, Williams had an extremely positive impact on winning while carrying a large offensive workload, very difficult to do as a rookie in the NBA and nearly unheard of for a player drafted in the back end of the lottery. Williams passes the eye test - he has good size (6’6”) and excellent length (7’2” wingspan) that allows him to toggle back and forth between the 2, 3 and even some 4. He’s a relentless attacker of the rim, consistently punishing scrambling defenses as a secondary driver off action initiated by Gilgeous-Alexander. He excels in transition, and he creates opportunities for himself due to his penchant for turnover creation (1.4 steals per game) on the defensive end. He has a hard-nosed attitude, welcoming tough defensive assignments, and you can tell when you watch him how confident he is in his game - he rarely gets sped up with the ball and as the year went on, he got more and more comfortable scoring at all three levels. I strongly believe that Williams is the second core piece of Oklahoma City’s next great team, and I expect him to be playing at a near All-Star level sooner rather than later.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Isaiah Joe
A second round pick of the 76ers in 2020, Isaiah Joe struggled to consistently crack Philly’s rotation in his first two years in the league. When the Sixers waived him just prior to the start of last season, The Thunder quickly snatched him up, and Joe paid them off in a big way, developing into one of the NBA’s best shooting specialists off the bench. Joe has superb range, as he knocks down shots from well beyond the arc and commands the respect of the defense basically as soon as he crosses half court. Daigneault deployed him creatively last season, often putting Joe in the action as a screener for Gilgeous-Alexander or Giddey and allowing him to pop back out to the three point line, forcing defenses to make a difficult decision about helping on the drive or honoring Joe’s shooting ability. Joe also showcased a developing package off the dribble, showing the potential to attack weaker defenders and get to his pull-up and step back game with efficient results. On a team with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a star who relentlessly attacks the rim and collapses defenses, having support players like Joe who simultaneously keep the paint open for drives and punish opponents when they do rush to help is crucial.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 43-39 (FanDuel o/u 44.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 17th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 13th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 16th
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is expected to miss start of season due to injury/suspension/other*
Team Overview: Injury Gods, We Beg Your Forgiveness
Whether you believe the responsibility lies with the players, the organization, or just pure rotten luck, there is no denying that the injury bug has hit the Pelicans particularly hard. Most notable, of course, is generational prospect and 2019 #1 overall pick Zion Williamson, who has managed to play more than 29 games in just one of his four NBA seasons thus far. Williamson’s talent is immense - in his lone mostly healthy season he was an all-star at age 20, averaging 27.1 points per game while shooting 61.1% from the field - and with him the Pelicans are a scary team (17-12 in 2022-23 with Williamson, 25-28 without). With all the focus on Williamson, it’s flown under the radar that fellow all-star wing Brandon Ingram has had injury issues of his own, missing 37 games a year ago as well. The injuries to their two stars created a chaotic 2022-23 season for New Orleans. There was the usual lineup upheaval that injuries create, but there was also a fair share of finger pointing, from both team personnel and players reportedly unhappy with Williamson and Ingram’s efforts to get back on the court, to Williamson’s camp pinning the blame on the Pelicans for mismanagement of Zion’s recovery and rehab. In all the frustration, New Orleans still managed to finish the season above .500 (42-40), underscoring how much talent is on this roster. Unfortunately, the Pelicans have already been besieged by injuries once again as they head into 2023-24, as emergent young wing Trey Murphy will miss the start of the season with a torn meniscus, and key reserves Naji Marshall and Larry Nance Jr. are both questionable to begin the year. The good news is that Williamson and Ingram are both ready to roll, and if they can stay that way, the Pelicans have a real chance to make noise in the west. At this point though, seeing is believing, and history tells us to bet against the stars aligning in New Orleans.
Notable Offseason Move: Herb is the Word
Drafted with the 35th overall pick in the 2021 NBA draft, Herbert Jones became a starter early in his rookie season and has developed into one of the better wing defenders in the NBA. Jones has the size, length and quickness to guard 1-4, and he is a playmaker off-ball as well, using his long arms to live in passing lanes and create transition opportunities. Although his offense is limited by his unreliable three point shot, he’s a good cutter and an intelligent passer, which makes him playable in most regular season lineups. With this type of player profile, Jones was undoubtedly a draft day steal as a 2nd round pick, which is why it might have initially been surprising to some when this past summer, the Pelicans declined his $1.8 million team option for the 2023-24 season. However, it was actually some intelligent future-focused maneuvering by New Orleans. Rather than allow Jones to play out the final year of his deal and hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent following this season, New Orleans’ decision to decline his team option immediately made him a restricted free agent, meaning that they held match rights on any contract he could have received from an outside team. The Pelicans quickly came to terms with Jones on a new deal worth just under $54 million over the next 4 seasons - a win for Jones in that he gets a significant raise this year from what he would have been paid had his option been picked up, but a bigger win for New Orleans in that they gain cost certainty on Jones going forward. In what was otherwise a quiet offseason for the Pelicans, taking care of Jones early will allow them to focus elsewhere next summer, while knowing that they have a critical young piece of their team locked in place.
One Big Question: Is the Zion Relationship Beyond Repair?
To this point in training camp, both Zion Williamson and the Pelicans have said all the right things about the disaster that was 2022-23. New Orleans coaches and team personnel insist that Williamson is in good shape and looks like himself, and Williamson has stated that he’s in a good place mentally and is looking forward to “fixing wrongs” (NOLA.com). While it’s undoubtedly positive that both sides seem open to a fresh start in 2023-24, it’s a situation that still seems tenuous at best given all the baggage that exists from years prior. As recently as June 2023, ESPN NBA insider Brian Windhorst had this to say about the relationship between Williamson and the Pelicans: “There is no relationship between Zion and the organization. And minimal relationship between Zion and his teammates, from what I understand” (HoopsHype). Considering one of the league’s most well regarded reporters felt that this was the state of things between the Pelicans and their star just a few months ago, there has to be a concern that any touch of negativity can quickly snowball once again. Last year, Williamson was visibly out of shape both when he was on the court and when he was injured and unable to play. If the organization feels he is not taking care of his body correctly, and Williamson and his camp do not trust the advice that is being given to them by the team, that is a serious enough divide that it may never truly resolve. To make matters worse, if Zion’s own teammates are questioning him, that could easily trickle over to the team’s chemistry even when Williamson does return to the court. A positive start to the season and a clean bill of health this year are both crucial to mending existing wounds. If poor chemistry prevents winning or another Zion injury places the attention on the team’s medical staff or on Zion’s own rehab methods, I worry that this season could quickly spiral out of control.
One Area I’m Sure: No Ceiling Without Zion
Sans Zion Williamson, the Pelicans roster would still be quite talented. Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum are both proven NBA scorers who together can captain a decent NBA offense, and young Pelicans like Trey Murphy, Herb Jones and Dyson Daniels have varying levels of intriguing upside. However, none of those players make anywhere close to the impact that a healthy Zion Williamson does on an NBA floor. Williamson’s mix of speed, power and explosiveness is unmatched around the league - when he gets downhill and anywhere near the rim, he is unguardable. Despite not being a threat from outside the arc or really even outside the paint, Williamson’s ability to score at the rim makes him extremely efficient, and he is a major mismatch problem for opponents because he is too strong for forwards and too quick for centers. At his best, Williamson also thrives in transition, where he can both beat opponents up the floor for layups or get quick duck-ins in the post against an unbalanced defense. If he can manage to string together healthy seasons, he will be a perennial all-NBA candidate and in my opinion, they type of player who can be the #1 option on a legitimate playoff contender. Of course, if he continues to play less than 30 games per season and is never able to be on the court come playoff time, then all of that is a mute point. If the Pelicans feel that Zion’s health outlook is such that he will never be reliable, one could argue that it’s defensible to trade him the next time he puts together a healthy stretch in order to get what would surely be a massive haul of picks and players back. However, my contention would be that even if New Orleans were to get the most premium of draft assets back, chances are they will not be able to find a player with the potential to be as good as Williamson. Based on the information we have heading into the season, I still believe that the most likely path to a championship level roster is paved by riding it out with Zion and praying for better days ahead.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Trey Murphy III
It really is such a terrible shame that Trey Murphy is going to miss a significant part of the upcoming season, because his star was about to explode. Murphy’s player profile is so rare and so coveted league wide - he’s a big wing (6’9”, 7’1” wingspan), who can really shoot (40.6% 3fg. on 7.3 attempts per 36 minutes), and doesn’t lack for athleticism (reported 38 inch vertical leap). Murphy really took off in his second season last year, stepping into the starting lineup when Williamson was out and showing improved confidence and assertiveness with every game. Murphy is more than just a catch and shoot guy - he has deep range from above the break, he’s elite in transition as a finisher, and he’s worked hard to steadily improve his off the dribble scoring package. Defensively, he still has room to grow to be a true stopper, but he competes hard, welcomes difficult matchups and has such a high floor due to his athleticism and physical tools. Regardless of how long it takes him to get back on the court, Murphy’s ceiling is extremely high, as at the least I expect him to be the type of 3&D wing that every team covets, and at best I could see him turning into a legitimate all-star. When fully healthy, the Pelicans frontcourt is crowded full of talented players, but the continued development of Murphy needs to be an organizational priority.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 41-41 (FanDuel o/u 44.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 12th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 21st
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 18th
BROOKLYN NETS
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
Team Overview: Back to the Future
After three seasons of total futility from 2015-16 through 2017-18, the 2018-19 Nets finally gave their fans something to smile about. Despite having basically zero premium draft capital with which to orchestrate a rebuild as a result of the disastrous Paul Pierce/Kevin Garnett trade, General Manager Sean Marks assembled a competitive roster built out of players like Spencer Dinwiddie, D’Angelo Russell, Joe Harris, Caris LeVert and Jarrett Allen - all products of the Nets player development system. The 2019 Nets were both scrappy and promising on their way to a 42 win season and a playoff berth - so promising that Marks used the viability of the roster combined with the attractiveness of playing in New York to lure superstars Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving to Brooklyn via free agency leading into the 2019-20 season, and then orchestrated a trade (that included LeVert and Allen) to bring in James Harden early in the 2021 season. One pandemic and a few basketball seasons later, it’s all gone - Brooklyn’s big three era ended with trade requests by all three of their stars and exactly one playoff series win. With the dust now settled heading into 2023-24, Brooklyn’s roster looks a lot like it did back in 2019, with a lot of good players (but no true superstar) looking to make their mark on the league with a fresh start on a new team. After the toxicity that hung in the Brooklyn air over the past few seasons, I’m sure it’s refreshing for all involved to have a team full of hungry, younger guys who will compete every night. However, on the court, it’s more of a question of when that initial excitement wears off and the reality sets in - an organization that once had a championship ceiling is now going to be scrambling for a back end playoff berth.
Notable Offseason Move: Healthy Ben Simmons?
With their big moves (trading away Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant) occurring in the middle of last season, by the time the summer came around there was not much left on the docket for Brooklyn. Cameron Johnson re-upped in restricted free agency, but that was inevitable after he was a key part of the return package from Phoenix for Durant. The Nets made a couple of draft picks (Noah Clowney and Dariq Whitehead), but neither projects to have a huge role in their rookie season. Lonnie Walker and Dennis Smith Jr. were nice value free agency signings, but both players were available for the minimum for a reason. Thus, the most notable offseason development might be the reported health and rejuvenated positivity around one of the league’s most polarizing players, Ben Simmons. I won’t re-litigate the whole Ben Simmons story here - anybody who has been paying attention to the NBA over the past few years knows the main points of his downfall from all-NBA to barely playable. To be brutally honest, Ben Simmons as an on-court basketball player has been so far removed from my consciousness over the past few years that every time I think about the Nets rotations and lineup combinations, I have to remind myself that he is even on the team. The fact is, Simmons enters this year fighting for his NBA life. His now infamous maximum contract is in its penultimate year, and if he loses another season due to injury, mental health or just plain ineffectiveness, it’s not at all unrealistic that the Nets buy him out or cut him next summer. Throughout training camp, Nets management and players alike have been pumping Simmons up, insisting that he looks more and more like his old self each day. Personally, I’m firmly in “I’ll believe it when I see it” mode, but at one point in time, Simmons’ combination of size, ball handling and passing reminded me more of LeBron James than any high school prospect I’d ever seen. He may be too far gone and too broken to ever get back to being a decent NBA player, let alone a great one, but if he does make a positive on-court impact this year, there is a chance he drastically swings the Nets outlook.
One Big Question: Star Power?
Teams that are deep, cohesive and feisty are fun to watch, and often punch above their weight in terms of regular season wins. However, there is a reason that Brooklyn blowtorched their roster a few years ago to acquire Durant, Irving and Harden - superstars are what win NBA championships. Having traded all three of theirs away, the Nets will now be searching for a new centerpiece of the team, and until they find it, will have a ceiling on their upside. The current leader in the clubhouse is Mikal Bridges, who was the centerpiece of the Durant trade and found a new level to his game once he arrived in Brooklyn. In 27 games following the trade, Bridges upped his scoring average from 17.2 to 26.1 points per game while actually improving his efficiency (57.4% -> 60.7% true shooting). This type of simultaneous jump in both volume and efficiency is nearly unheard of for a player in his 5th season, but it shows that the Nets might have a true star already entrenched on the wing. Beyond his ability to score, Bridges has a lot else working in his favor. He’s extremely durable (appeared in 392 out of a possible 392 games in his career) and is an elite wing defender, capable of guarding point guards through power forwards. Even if he regresses a bit as a scorer from his red-hot end to 2022-23, his shooting ability makes him a natural fit off the ball and an extremely valuable player. However, Bridges is not much of a playmaker for others, and he profiles more as a play finisher than an offensive initiator, which means he may be better suited as a secondary star on the highest level of teams. The issue for Brooklyn is that the pathway to finding that complimentary piece to Bridges is unclear - the team is a few years away from any of the picks they collected in the Durant and Irving trades coming due, and if they push those chips towards the center in a trade for a star, they may be mortgaging their future once again. Unless there is an unexpected breakout from another Net in ‘23-24, Sean Marks and his staff are going to have to be very shrewd in how they maneuver in order to make sure Brooklyn doesn’t get stuck on the treadmill of mediocrity.
One Area I’m Sure: Defense is the Way
Due to Bridges’ late season emergence and because Brooklyn ended 2022-23 as a playoff team, it’s easy to overlook how much they struggled following the Durant trade last season. When Bridges and Cameron Johnson (the two principle players Phoenix sent back for Durant) joined the team, Brooklyn was 33-22. From that point forward, the Nets finished the year at 12-15, approximately a 36 win pace over the course of an 82 game season. Unsurprisingly, Brooklyn’s offensive rating cratered post trade deadline from 115.3 (6th out of 30) to 113.2 (23rd out of 30), as they sorely lacked the type of half-court shot creation that players like Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving provide. More time playing together as well as some internal improvement could help stabilize the offense a bit, but Brooklyn’s personnel likely dictates that their offense will at best be a league-average unit. Brooklyn’s biggest strength as a team seems like it should be defense, as they are deep on the wings with talented and versatile defenders and center Nicolas Claxton is one of the better rim protectors in the league. However, the pre and post Durant trade defensive splits are worrying as well, as Brooklyn went from a 112.9 (13th out of 30) defensive rating pre-trade to 114.7 (17th out of 30) post-trade. I believe that the Nets will be better in 2023-24 on the defensive end after having a full training camp together, especially if they can get a productive season out of Ben Simmons, a two-time all defensive team member himself. However, with the struggles I expect Brooklyn to have scoring the ball, the Nets can’t afford to be merely competent on the defensive end - this defense has to be a no-doubt top 10 unit from start to finish in 2023-24. Brooklyn’s defensive metrics are the area of this team I’ll be monitoring most closely through the seasons first few weeks and months, as in my view their path to 40+ wins flows through their ability to get stops.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Dorian Finney-Smith
If I were basing this section based purely off of last season’s performance, Dorian Finney-Smith would likely not be deserving of inclusion. After back to back years in 2020-21 and 2021-22 of Finney-Smith being excellent in his role as a 3&D forward next to Luka Doncic in Dallas, his production took a big dip in 2022-23. This was especially true once Finney-Smith was dealt to Brooklyn as part of the Kyrie Irving trade - his three-point shooting fell to 30.6%, which would have been his worst mark since 2017-18, and his defense was subpar, especially on-ball where he was really struggling to stay in front of opponents. It’s possible that as he enters his age 30 season, Finney-Smith has slipped enough athletically that his defense is permanently on the decline, and that his back-to-back seasons of 39% 3fg shooting from 2020-22 were a product of the wide open looks that teammates of Doncic receive. However, by having him be the focus of this section, I’m betting that Finney-Smith still has more high-level basketball left in him. If Brooklyn is going to build a top defense this year, it will be because of their ability to play lineups with multiple versatile wing defenders. Finney-Smith is crucial to this identity - at his best, he has caused problems in playoff series for players ranging from Chris Paul to Paul George. Offensively, while his three ball may not be as efficient as it once was now that he’s playing in a less shooter-friendly system, Finney-Smith is a smart player who understands when to cut and times his forays to the offensive glass well. I believe he will benefit more than just about any other Net from having a full offseason and training camp to acclimate to a new environment, as prior to last year he had never played anywhere else but Dallas. As we enter the season, it appears as though Brooklyn is planning on giving Ben Simmons another chance to start games at the 4. I predict that early on, it will become apparent that the Nets’ best lineups include Finney-Smith instead.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 39-43 (FanDuel o/u 37.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 25th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 7th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 17th
INDIANA PACERS
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
Team Overview: Tyrese’s Team
It’s pretty rare for two teams to execute a major trade that can truly be argued as ending up a win-win. When it comes to the deal that the Pacers and Kings swung in 2022, where the principles were Domantas Sabonis heading west and Tyrese Haliburton coming to Indy, it might actually end up being the case. Whereas Sacramento got an all-NBA season from Sabonis and unlocked the next level from their incumbent point guard De’Aaron Fox, the Pacers found themselves an organizational building block and the new face of their franchise. Haliburton was very good in his year and a half with the Kings, but he’s been truly elite ever since he put on a Pacer uniform, and they rightly rewarded him this summer with a massive 5 year contract extension worth up to as much as $260 million. At just 23 years old Haliburton might be the NBA’s best passing guard, especially in transition. He is the juice for Indiana’s up-tempo offense, unceasingly pushing the pace after makes or misses and catching scrambling defenses out of position. He’s also a tremendous shooter, making 40% of his threes on high volume (7.2 3PA per game) and taking a difficult variety of shots, from pull-ups to step backs to threes from well beyond the arc. Indiana is very much built in his image, and their offseason showed that they feel he can be the centerpiece of a true contender. Haliburton’s impact in 2022-23 was evident (Indy was 28-28 in his 56 games played, 7-19 without him) and their 2023-24 will go as far as he can take them as well.
Notable Offseason Move: Get Ready for a Track Meet
One sign of a well-run team is when they enter an offseason with clearly identified needs and a well-thought out plan of execution. Looking at Indiana’s offseason moves, it’s easy to see that they meet both of these criteria. First, in the draft, they were able to move down one spot, collect two future second round picks, and still get their man - versatile and defensive-minded forward Jarace Walker. Walker gives Indiana some much needed size and athleticism along their forward line, should be a plus defender and turnover-creator right from day one, and will have his shooting concerns mitigated by playing next to a stretch big in Myles Turner. Next, with their cap space, the Pacers spent big to grab slashing wing Bruce Brown, who fills their need for a perimeter stopper and fits perfectly next to Haliburton as a guy who excels running the lanes in transition. While the price tag for Brown was high ($22 million in year 1), it has a team option on the second year and if Brown somehow flops in Indy, they can move on from his deal as soon as next summer, making it a low-risk contract for the team. Finally, Indiana bought low on former Knicks big man Obi Toppin, acquiring him for just a pair of future 2nd round selections. Toppin never quite clicked in New York despite flashing potential, as he was stuck behind star forward Julius Randle in the Knicks rotation. In Indiana, he is an awesome fit as another player who’s at his best on the fast break and as a lob threat. All three major Indiana additions will both elevate and be elevated by Indiana’s established system, which is the perfect synergy for team building.
One Big Question: Mathurin’s Ceiling
Due to Haliburton’s breakout and Indiana’s overall profile of competitiveness going forward, it’s probable that barring major injury, they will not pick as highly in the lottery as they have the last two seasons. While this is obviously a good thing in that they will be an exciting team that has a chance to win most nights, it also means that finding another young star to form a core next to Haliburton will be a difficult proposition. As a result, one of the most important items to watch in the coming seasons will be the development of 2022 #6 overall pick, Bennedict Mathurin. Early on in Mathurin’s rookie year, he looked like he might be the steal of the draft - through the season's first two months (21 games) he was averaging 19.2 ppg. while shooting over 40% from beyond the arc. As the season progressed, Mathurin’s production and efficiency faded, but overall he still put together an extremely encouraging rookie year, finishing 2nd amongst first year players in scoring while spending a good portion of the season coming off the bench. Mathurin is an explosive athlete with a quick first step, capable of beating defenders one-on-one and finishing above the rim. He is confident and aggressive as a shooter off the dribble, hunting his shot and consistently exploiting mismatches against weaker defenders. However, there are some major weaknesses to his game as well. While he has the size and athletic profile to be a plus defender, he was inconsistent in both his effort and scheme awareness as a rookie. His shot selection was questionable at best, and his negative assist to turnover ratio underscores his limited ceiling as a playmaker for others. Head coach Rick Carlisle kept Mathurin out of the starting lineup due to these flaws in his game, and if they persist, he probably profiles long-term more as a score-first 6th man than a true complementary star. While that player type has value, Indiana needs more in order to really elevate the potential of their core. This year, it seems as though Mathurin will have a chance to start and show that his game has progressed. How close Mathurin gets to his ceiling as a player has huge ramifications for the Pacers future outlook, and this year will go a long way towards providing Indiana some crucial answers on that front.
One Area I’m Sure: Every Night Juice
Last year, Indiana was able to find surprising success (particularly early in the season) by catching teams off guard with how much they pushed the pace. After their additions this offseason, I expect that emphasis on transition offense to be ramped up to an even higher level. In the long grind of an NBA season, with brutal travel schedules and back-to-back games, teams do not have a chance to extensively game plan and prepare for each and every game. Indiana’s ability to throw a different look at opponents with the speed at which they will play is going to catch teams sleeping, and it has a chance to be the secret sauce that leads to them banking a few more regular season wins than their on-paper talent might suggest. The Pacers collection of speed, youth and athleticism combined with Haliburton’s otherworldly vision has already proven extremely difficult to guard - last year they ranked 2nd in the league in transition frequency (20.2% of offensive possessions), and their 1.18 points per transition possession ranked 3rd in the league. Add in players who have either proven or project to be transition weapons like Brown, Toppin and Walker, and a full season of healthy Haliburton, and Indiana projects to me as the NBA’s best transition team.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Myles Turner
Somehow, despite his 8 NBA seasons providing a supremely valuable and exceedingly rare combination of competent outside shooting and elite rim protection, Myles Turner still flies under the national radar. In 2022-23, Turner put together a career year, posting career highs in scoring (18.0 ppg.) and true shooting percentage (65.1%) while upping his usage to a career high 22%. Essentially, Turner saw an uptick in volume but also posted his most efficient season - the holy grail of individual offensive improvement. Defensively, he has always been one of the NBA’s best rim protecting presences and he maintained that last season, averaging 2.3 blocks per game, good for 5th best in the league. With Domantas Sabonis now in Sacramento, Turner is able to play center full time on offense, getting involved in screening actions rather than just spacing the floor as a pure catch and shoot player. The combination of change in usage and Haliburton’s playmaking unlocked a new level to his offensive game, and I expect that to continue this season and beyond. If the Pacers see a jump in wins and a resulting jump in national media attention, Turner will be in the All-Star discussion in 2023-24.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 40-42 (FanDuel o/u 38.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 13th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 23rd
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 21st