TIER 3: COMPETITIVE PLAYOFF TEAMS LACKING CHAMPIONSHIP UPSIDE
Tier 3 is an interesting organizational dilemma. These teams are good - they have a proven baseline of regular season competence and a likely floor of a playoff berth. Typically, tier 3 teams have an all-star or two surrounded by high quality depth and solid coaching, the type of ingredients that make a team fun to watch on a nightly basis. However, for varying reasons, these teams have a limited playoff ceiling. It’s difficult to objectively evaluate these rosters (as currently constructed) and make a realistic case for them reaching the NBA finals, let alone winning it - for tier 3 teams making the playoffs is the standard, winning a round is the goal and winning two is a home run.
Tier 3 can be a fun place to be, especially for organizations like Cleveland, Sacramento and New York who have experienced so much pain and dysfunction. Winning 55-60% of your regular season games and battling the big boys come playoff time is a welcome change when you're used to chasing lottery balls every year. The problem? Tier 3 usually has a shelf life - ask DeMar DeRozan and Dwane Casey about being sent packing by the Raptors or Quin Snyder and Rudy Gobert about the disbanding of the Jazz. Eventually, the feeling of playoff hopelessness starts to hurt just as much as the regular seasons losses used to and fans start to push for a move towards being all in. For a few of the teams you will see below, now may not quite be that time, but have no doubt it’s coming. Being strategic about when and how to try and take that final leap to true contender status is the name of the game.
*For a refresher on the the layout of this season preview series, click here
**All stats courtesy of basketballreference.com or NBA.com unless stated otherwise
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is expected to miss start of season due to injury/suspension/other*
Team Overview: Under No Circumstances
To put it mildly, things went off the rails for the 2022-23 Memphis Grizzlies. Ja Morant’s suspension for a viral video of him in a Denver nightclub waving a gun around (Fox 31 Denver). Season ending injuries to key big men Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke. A humbling 1st round playoff defeat at the hands of the 7th seeded Lakers, complete with a 40 point loss in game 6 to send them home. Finally, to top it all off, a second Morant gun incident, this time leading to a 25 game suspension that will leave them without their star guard to begin 2023-24 (New York Times). For a Memphis team that has prided themselves on being young, brash and unafraid, the end of their season proved that the line between confidence and immaturity had been more than a little blurred. General Manager Zach Kleiman delivered a clear message when he reportedly informed Grizzlies lead trash-talker Dillon Brooks that he would “not be brought back under any circumstances” (The Athletic) - the culture in Memphis needs to shift from words to actions. Let’s be clear - there is so much to be optimistic about for the Grizz. The trio of Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane is a legitimate core of all-star (maybe even all-NBA) caliber players in their 20s, all contractually locked up under team control. If Memphis can get the pieces right on the court and the atmosphere right off the court, there’s absolutely a championship ceiling for this team at some point down the line. As we enter this season, the hope is that a deep breath and a mental reset is enough to get this team back on track.
Notable Offseason Move: Bringing Grit Back to Memphis
A perfect encapsulation of the cultural reset underway is the exile of Brooks and the acquisition of Marcus Smart. Where Brooks talks the talk, Smart walks the walk - he aggressively defends without stupidly fouling, he gets under the skin of the opposition without losing control of his own emotions, he’s the first one diving on the floor for a loose ball. Smart’s controlled intensity is a perfect match with the identity Memphis is striving for, keeping that never-back-down mentality while not allowing the moment to get too big. Smart has been a steward for young teams before, as he was already established in Boston before Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum arrived on the scene. He’s been to every level of the playoffs, experienced every scenario of a series that you can, but he still has the hunger of a 0-time champion and the fire of a player unceremoniously dumped by his long-time team. On the court, Smart helps to fill the defensive void left by Brooks’ departure and the playmaking void left by Morant’s suspension. In the playoffs, he’ll take on tough wing assignments and step confidently into the open shots created by Morant that Brooks’ shied away from, even if they are not falling on a given night. However, none of that is as important as what he has been brought on to do for this locker room and these Memphis youngsters. As memorable as his run in Boston will always be, Smart is perfectly situated to leave just as much of an impact in Memphis.
One Big Question: Do Jaren and Bane Have Another Level to Reach?
The obvious question hanging over Memphis is the mental state of Ja Morant and whether or not he can exorcize whatever mental demons are plaguing him. But to me, that’s a boring analysis - either Morant will put his off-court past behind him and return to the floor as the 2020s version of Derrick Rose, or he won’t, it will be a sad story of an incredible talent gone awry, and the Grizzlies championship ceiling will be lost. In my eyes, Memphis’ more intriguing x-factors are their other two stars, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane. Jackson Jr. is the reigning defensive player of the year, the rare big man capable of elite rim protection on the defensive end while being a true threat from beyond the arc on the offensive end. Bane is a bowling ball of a shooting guard, physical and rugged enough to get downhill to the rim but most threatening from the outside with his deep range and off-the-dribble shooting ability. Jackson Jr. probably sits comfortably in the all-star range, but his constant battles with foul trouble and limited ability to create his own shot hold him back from true all-NBA superstardom. Bane is right on the all-star edge, but he has more to prove as a facilitator and scorer inside the arc. If Memphis can get continued growth out of their secondary and tertiary stars, watch out - this has the potential to be the core of a multiple time champion.
One Area I’m Sure: The Defense Will Play
Owners of 2022-23’s 3rd-ranked defense by defensive rating, there’s little reason to believe that Memphis won’t be excellent once again at point prevention. Jackson Jr. is one of the league's premier rim protectors, and head coach Taylor Jenkins’ preference to play him next to a second big means that attacking the pain will be a nightly chore for the opposition. On the perimeter, both Smart and Bane are dogged defenders with excellent positional strength, capable of making life uncomfortable for ball-handlers. While Memphis’ bench unit projects to be a little shakier on the defensive end than in years past, Jenkins scheme and the Grizzlies stability on the backline deserve the benefit of the doubt for keeping opponents off of the scoreboard. Much like the Lakers, Memphis needs their defense not only to stop opponent scoring but also to trigger their own offense. In recent seasons, the Grizz have struggled as a half-court offense even in their best moments - where they really thrive is when they can force turnovers and get out in transition, allowing Morant’s otherworldly combination of athleticism and vision to shine, and creating advantageous situations to punish teams on the offensive glass. Especially in the early-going while Morant is sidelined, Memphis will need their defense to carry them to wins.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Xavier Tillman
One of the lone bright spots from the Grizzlies playoff loss to the Lakers a season ago was the play of big man Xavier Tillman. Tillman was forced into a starting role due to injuries to Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke, and he proved a worthy opponent against a difficult Laker frontcourt. Although a bit undersized and not a great athlete, Tillman moves his feet laterally pretty well and is very strong, allowing him to play with some versatility on the defensive end. Offensively, he’s got pretty good touch on floaters and around the rim, and he attacks the offensive glass. He’s a good screener due to his wide body and he plays with a high IQ on both ends, he’s almost always in the correct spot defensively, and he makes good reads as a passer out of the short roll or in the handoff game. Tillman does not profile as a star, but as a third big, he is a very valuable piece for a bench unit that has taken some hits via trade, free agency and injury over the past few seasons. His ability to capably step in as a starter is massive for a frontcourt that has its fair share of injury history between Jackson Jr. and Adams.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 50-32 (FanDuel o/u 45.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 20th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 1st
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 9th
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
Team Overview: Here We Go Again
JUNE 2021: Philadelphia 76ers suffer a crushing Game 7 loss in the second round of the playoffs. Sixers' supposed second-best player Ben Simmons scores 5 points on 4 shots in the deciding game.
AUGUST 2021: After a few months of being scapegoated for the Sixers failures by media and team personnel alike, Simmons requests a trade from Philadelphia.
FEBRUARY 2022: After months of Simmons refusing to participate in team activities, The 76ers trade him to the Nets as part of a package for James Harden (NBC Sports Philadelphia).
MAY 2023: Philadelphia blows a 3-2 series lead in the second round against the rival Boston Celtics. Sixers’ supposed second-best player James Harden scores 24 points over the series’ final two games, shooting 7-27 from the field and committing 10 total turnovers.
JUNE 2023: Harden requests a trade from the 76ers, threatening to hold out if the Sixers do not acquiesce to his demands.
As the 76ers stare down the barrel of another wasted season in Joel Embiid’s prime, the irony of the James Harden era ending under the exact same circumstances in which it began has to be sickening. Philadelphia faces yet another major identity crisis, as they attempt the herculean task of turning a disgruntled player into a championship-level running mate for Embiid. Morey did about as well as one could the last time around when he turned Simmons into Harden, but he will have a tall order repeating that feat, and even if he does, it may not be enough to propel Philly to the next level. Between the 76ers internal disarray and their persistent lack of playoff success in recent seasons, it’s just hard to take them seriously as a true contender - a disappointing reality for a team that rosters the reigning MVP.
Notable Offseason Move: Daryl Morey is a Liar
The roots of the Harden mess date back to the summer of 2022. At that time, Harden had declined his 2022-23 player option and entered free agency, but it was a foregone conclusion that the star guard would re-sign with Philadelphia considering all the effort both sides had just undertaken to get him there via trade. As such, it was a bit strange when Harden’s free agency dragged on until the end of July, the equivalent of an eternity in the fast-moving world of the NBA offseason. When Harden did finally sign his pact with the Sixers, he signed for about 30% less than he would have made had he simply opted into his player option - a financial maneuver that allowed Philly to also sign forward P.J. Tucker (NBA.com). While the team publicly lauded Harden for his commitment to winning, many in NBA circles speculated that this apparent act of selflessness came with a caveat - team President Daryl Morey promising Harden that he would be made whole on a new maximum contract once Harden hit free agency again, in the summer of 2023. However, following a season of decline from Harden and another Philly playoff disappointment, no maximum contract extension was presented. While a “wink-wink” deal would have been highly illegal according to NBA bylaws, we can be reasonably confident that Harden felt he had some sort of assurance from Morey based on the below comments he made this summer at an Adidas media event:
“Daryl Morey is a liar and I will never be a part of an organization that he's a part of…Let me say that again: Daryl Morey is a liar and I will never be a part of an organization that he's a part of" (ESPN). For now, both sides are at an uneasy stalemate, as Harden has reported to camp and reportedly plans to play. However, an unmotivated Harden has proven to be destructive in the past, and Morey has shown through the Ben Simmons saga that he is more willing to let a situation turn ugly than he is to sell low on an asset. Beyond putting a competitive team on the court this season, Philly has their future to panic about as well - while Embiid has been publicly supportive of the Sixers to this point, one has to think that there’s only so many seasons he will let go to ruin before he starts to look for greener pastures elsewhere.
One Big Question: Can Maxey Take Another Leap?
Without a clear move to make on the Harden front, Philadelphia’s best chance at finding a championship level second star lies within. Now entering his fourth season, combo guard Tyrese Maxey has shown flashes in the early stages of his career that he might be the answer they need. Maxey is a slashing combo guard with a quick first step to the rim who has also made tremendous strides as an outside shooter, improving from 30.1% from three on 1.7 attempts per game in his rookie season to 43.4% on 6.2 attempts per game last year. Even at just 23 years old, Maxey is a proven NBA scorer, as he averaged over 20 points per game last season and has four 30+ point playoff games to his name. The questions for Maxey lay elsewhere in his game - at just 6’2” he is point guard-sized but is underwhelming as a distributor, functioning more effectively off the ball. He is a below-average defender at either guard spot, as he struggles to get through screens as an on-ball defender and can be overpowered by bigger players on the wing. Maxey is at a critical juncture in his NBA career, as he currently profiles as a scoring guard with major weaknesses in his game - a very useful player, but not one that can be one of the best two or three players on a championship team. However, if he can make modest jumps in his passing, two-point efficiency, and defense, Maxey could break out to the next level and become a perennial all-star type of guard because he is so potent putting the ball in the hoop. Whether or not Harden is on the court next to him, the early part of this season is a crucial evaluation period for the Sixers when it comes to Maxey, as they must determine his ceiling and where he will fit in their roster hierarchy as they continue tweaking the team around Joel Embiid.
One Area I’m Sure: Happy Harden Still Not Enough
Some who read this article might be surprised to see the 76ers outside of my top two tiers, and the assumption could be that it’s simply due to the internal chaos of the organization. While that certainly does not help things, even if Harden were fully on board and locked up long term I still would not have Philly ranked any higher. While I have no doubts about the regular season competence that Joel Embiid can carry the Sixers to regardless of what’s around him, there is simply too much evidence that this team and this core is not built to win multiple high-level playoff series. 2nd star aside, be it Harden or otherwise, Philadelphia has holes, and the blame starts with Embiid. First and foremost is his health - in each of the last three playoff runs, Embiid has played through nagging injuries and his play has dropped off significantly from his regular season levels. In his MVP-winning campaign last year, Embiid averaged 33.1 points per game on 65.5% true shooting - truly excellent numbers. However, in the playoffs, Embiid’s production dipped to 23.7 points per game on 56.1% TS - still solid, but nowhere near the level of an elite #1 option. The roster around him is imperfect, to be sure. Philadelphia struggles to find lineups that simultaneously have enough shooting and enough defense, and the failures of first Simmons and then Harden have been well documented. At the same time, Embiid himself needs to find a way to sustain the elite level of play he has shown to be capable of through an entire playoff run, or everything else is a mute point.
Unheralded Player to Watch: De’Anthony Melton
If and when Philadelphia does make a move off of Harden, Morey and company can at least take solace in the fact that they have a perfect backcourt complement for Tyrese Maxey waiting in the wings in De’Anthony Melton. Acquired prior to the 2022-23 season from Memphis, Melton is the type of player that every playoff team needs - he can shoot (39% 3fg on 5.2 attempts per game) and he’s an excellent defender who has quick hands to force turnovers and deflections. Although Melton is a bit undersized to match up with bigger wings, he is tremendous at harassing guards, using his length and speed to fight over the top of screens. Melton does not require the ball in his hands to be effective offensively, but he also has more in his repertoire than purely catch and shoot - he was a point guard in college and has a nice feel for attacking closeouts and making good reads. In many ways, Melton’s presence in the starting lineup makes sense even if Philly keeps Harden, as he could defend the opponent’s best guard and allow either Harden or Maxey to take on an easier defensive assignment. If Philly is able to make a deep postseason run this year, I expect Melton to be a big reason why - he is the exact type of role player who finds his way onto the court in the biggest of moments. With Melton entering free agency after this season and Philadelphia having aspirations of opening up as much cap room as possible, he should be a player that every team in the league could use and should be monitoring in case he is allowed to test the open market.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 48-34 (FanDuel o/u 47.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 8th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 6th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 4th
NEW YORK KNICKS
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
Team Overview: The Definition of Tier 3
It’s kind of strange to say considering the state of this franchise for most of the 21st century, but the New York Knicks enter 2023-24 as one of the most stable teams in the league. They have an experienced coach who has won a lot of regular season games and a deep roster with at least nine above average NBA players and a couple of interesting young guys behind that. The Knicks play hard every night, they have one of the best home courts in the NBA, and they have a good mix of personalities that seem to get along with one another. Somewhere between 45 and 50 wins for this group feels like one of the safest bets in the NBA. So what’s the rub? Well, with all that floor, there is just not much ceiling for this group. Jalen Brunson broke out last year as a legitimate all-star caliber point guard, but as far as best players on playoff teams go, he’s still behind the curve. Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett can volume their way to good counting stats, but both have shown a tendency for major drop-offs in efficiency once the playoffs start. Mitchell Robinson, Josh Hart, Donte DiVincenzo - all rock solid role players but none capable of providing that star power that this team needs to push itself to the next level. The Knicks have been carefully biding their time so far this decade, building a competitive team while keeping their asset powder dry as they wait for the right opportunity to push their chips towards the center of the table. Will that opportunity present itself this year, and if it doesn’t and the team stalls in the playoffs again, will the fanbase start getting restless?
Notable Offseason Move: Villanova Love
After missing the majority of the Bucks 2021 championship run due to injury, and then struggling through an injury-marred 2022 campaign, Donte DiVincenzo settled for a 1 year prove it deal with the Warriors prior to last season. Right away, DiVincenzo reminded folks around the league why he was once considered Milwaukee’s long-term answer at shooting guard, as his intelligence as a cutter, passer and team defender was an excellent fit playing alongside Stephen Curry and Draymond Green in Golden State. It was reminiscent of his days at Villanova, when DiVincenzo was the sixth man for a loaded national title team in his redshirt sophomore season. It’s no wonder why the Knicks made reuniting him with two of his former ‘Nova teammates (Brunson and Hart) a priority - DiVincenzo is the ideal type of role player whose game simultaneously elevates and is elevated by winning teams. DiVincenzo will knock down open shots, identify the correct reads as both a passer and a defender, and make one or two hustle plays throughout the course of each game that will earn the rare Tom Thibodeau smile. However, it is fair to question, given the Knicks roster construction, if allocating their full mid-level exception to DiVincenzo was an optimal use of resources. Between young guards Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley, the Knicks are the rare team that seems to have an abundance of 3&D prowess on the perimeter. It makes you wonder if New York is preparing for 1 of 2 eventualities - starting wing R.J. Barrett as the main salary going out in a trade (which I would advocate for) or Quickley being allowed to walk when he hits restricted free agency next summer (which I would not). DiVincenzo is a good player on a reasonable contract, so the downside risk is minimal regardless, but it will be interesting to see how Thibodeau chooses to deploy his options on the wing.
One Big Question: Who Are They Waiting For?
Traditionally, patience and New York sports are not much of a match. When star guard and New York native Donovan Mitchell was put on the trade block prior to the 2022-23 season, the Knicks and their stash of extra draft picks seemed like the inevitable landing spot. However, when team President Leon Rose reportedly drew a hard line in the sand in negotiations with Utah, the Jazz instead sent Mitchell to Cleveland. It was a defensible move at the time, and remains so now. Mitchell is a great player but likely not one capable of being the best player on a championship team. If the Knicks had emptied their asset clip to bring him in, they would have a shiny new star, but still no championship ceiling and also no viable path to finding one. However, it does beg the question - who is a big enough fish for the Knicks to finally pull the trigger? In the NBA, unhappy stars and league-altering trade requests are often right around the corner, and the Knicks are in prime position to take advantage. At the same time, there’s only so long this fan base that hasn’t seen a championship since 1973 will be willing to sit idly by, and perhaps more importantly, only so long before the extra 1st rounders the Knicks have to offer turn from picks to players.
One Area I’m Sure: Best Player is Brunson
A season ago, the Knicks were led in scoring by Julius Randle. It was Randle who was the team’s lone all-star, and he was even honored as one of the 6 best forwards of the 2022-23 regular season when he was named 3rd team all-NBA. However, once the playoffs started, the higher level of competition and increasingly focused opponent game plans reaffirmed what those who had closely watched the Knicks all year already knew - the team runs through Jalen Brunson. In 15 career playoff games with the Knicks, Randle is averaging 17.1 ppg (nearly 5 points per game fewer than his regular season average across 4 seasons as a Knick) on a truly brutal 46.2% true shooting percentage, which clocks in at a whopping 12.8% lower than the positional average for power forwards in 2022-23 (StatMuse). On the other hand, Brunson saw his scoring average rise from 24.0 ppg in the regular season to 27.8 ppg across the Knicks 11 playoff games, with only a marginal dip in efficiency - 58.9% TS, down 0.8% from the regular season and still 2.9% better than the positional average for point guards in 2022-23 (StatMuse). While Randle’s brute force and volume approach is extremely valuable for the regular season, Brunson is the Knicks’ true difference maker against other playoff-level teams. He can score from all 3 levels, using his strength and elite footwork to outmaneuver defenders in the paint and his vastly improved jump shot to keep teams honest from outside the arc. While not an elite passer, his 6.2 assists per game last year were a career high and his 3:1 assist to turnover ratio underscores his ability to play under control. I fully expect Brunson to earn his first all-star nod this season, and to be nationally recognized as the centerpiece of the Knicks.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Quentin Grimes
“3&D” is a role descriptor that has become so common in NBA circles that it’s now probably both overused and oversimplified. Nevertheless, there’s a good reason why it is so highly discussed - players who can simultaneously space the floor on offense around your stars and defend well enough to not be picked on by opposing offenses are the most valuable support pieces in the league. In Quentin Grimes, the Knicks not only have one of these coveted 3&D wings, but they have one who is young, still improving and cost controlled for the next two seasons via an extremely modest rookie deal. With the Knicks sitting at 8-8 in mid-November of last season, Thibodeau inserted Grimes in the starting lineup and he was a huge part of New York’s 39-27 record the rest of the way. Offensively, Grimes is primarily a spot-up shooter, but he is also capable of attacking a closeout and making positive decisions once he gets into the paint. He was a big time scorer in college at Houston, and he understands how to move on the court to open up passing angles and generate good looks for himself. Defensively, Grimes isn’t quite an on-ball ace at this point in his career, and at 6’5” without any sort of outlier length, he’s a bit undersized to guard the best wings. However, he moves well enough laterally to defend both guard spots, he’s physically strong for a player so young, and he competes extremely hard. At the least, he profiles as a plus on the defensive end, and with some continued growth may eventually turn into one of the league’s better perimeter stoppers.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 46-36 (FanDuel o/u 45.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 10th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 16th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 12th
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is expected to miss start of season due to injury/suspension/other*
Team Overview: Better, But How Much?
Statistically speaking, the 2022-23 Cavaliers were among the NBA’s elite teams. In the regular season, they ranked 1st in defensive rating, 8th in offensive rating and 2nd in net rating overall. Prize offseason acquisition Donovan Mitchell fit in perfectly and had his best season to date, posting career highs in scoring, field goal percentage and 3pt. percentage on his way to earning All-NBA 2nd team honors. Cleveland returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2018, and reached the 50 win mark without LeBron James on the roster for the first time since 1992-93. However, once the Cavaliers reached the playoffs, they were quickly reminded of the differences between regular season and playoff basketball. In a series where the Cavs had home court advantage and entered play as the slight betting favorite, they were summarily dispatched by the Knicks in just 5 games. Cleveland’s problem was their offense, as their 101.9 points per 100 possessions over the course of the series was 6.5 points per 100 worse than the NBA’s 30th ranked offense during the regular season, the Detroit Pistons. Granted, 5 games is an extremely small sample size, but anyone who watched the series can attest to just how much of a slog it was for the Cavs on the offensive end. Their two big lineups and extreme lack of spacing made it easy for the Knicks to load up the paint against Mitchell and star point guard Darius Garland, and Cleveland’s supporting pieces were unable to knock down shots and make plays when called upon. The Cavs knew they had to make changes to their team over the offseason, and to their credit, they were both aggressive and creative in their moves. However, despite being different on paper, Cleveland will be thought of as a regular season team until they prove otherwise.
Notable Offseason Move: Space to Operate
In the modern NBA, it’s very rare that a team will frequently play lineups with more than one player that is not a threat to shoot threes. The Cavaliers are unique - their best and most used lineup includes two such players, big men Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The lack of floor spacing when both are on the court does have the potential to create major issues for the Cavs’ halfcourt offense, as we saw in the most recent playoffs. However, Mobley and Allen need to be out there, as they are the backbone of Cleveland’s excellent defense and two of their four best players overall. Justifiably unwilling to break up their twin bigs, Cleveland instead targeted major shooting upgrades for two key rotation spots, both the 5th starter alongside their “core four,” and their first forward off the bench. To fill out their starting lineup, Cleveland executed a sign and trade for former Heat swingman Max Strus. Fresh off an excellent playoff run in Miami, Strus offers tremendous gravity not only as a catch and shoot threat, but also because he must be respected in off ball actions due to his ability to shoot on the move. Additionally, Strus has a ton of experience playing out of dribble handoffs with Bam Adebayo in Miami, and should be able to translate that well to playing next to Mobley in Cleveland. The Cavs picked up another excellent shooter to bring off their bench in Georges Niang, who should fill the role vacated by Kevin Love as a power forward who can play next to either Mobley or Allen whenever one of them is resting. In prior seasons, Cleveland’s only two plus shooters have been Garland and Mitchell, who spend the majority of their time on the court with the ball in their hands. Having off-ball threats who command the defense's respect should do wonders to open up the offense for Cleveland’s stars.
One Big Question: Mobley Good or Mobley Great?
While the move for Mitchell yielded immediate returns in year 1, it does hamstring the Cavs in that it leaves them without control of their first round draft pick each year from 2025-2029. Without a path to serious cap space to spend in free agency, and without many draft assets to utilize in trade, Cleveland has no obvious way to make additional substantial upgrades to their roster. Mitchell is an excellent talent, but in my view he’s probably hovering somewhere around the 20th best player in the NBA - capable of being the best player on a playoff team but overstretched as the primary piece of a true championship contender. By going all in for Mitchell, the Cavaliers rolled the dice that internal development alone would build the remaining pieces of a finals-worthy core, and the number one variable in that equation is the growth of Evan Mobley. Defensively, Mobley is already elite, as he finished 3rd in the 2022-23 Defensive Player of the Year vote in just his second NBA season. Even if Mobley makes no improvements for the rest of his career on the offensive end, he’s still a franchise cornerstone and likely a maximum or near max contract player due to his defensive value. However, in order for the Cavs to get to the next level as a team, Mobley will have to take his all-around game to the next level. He already does a lot of things well offensively - he’s a good passer for a big, he runs the court in transition and he has good hands and timing as a finisher on his cuts to the rim. On the other hand, while his jumper looks pretty fluid, he’s yet to expand his range beyond the 3pt. line. He also lacks strength and fluidity as an isolation player, and he leaves a lot of low-hanging fruit on the table by almost never getting to the free throw line (3.8 fta per game in 2022-23). The potential is there, but Mobley’s offensive development was somewhat stagnant between his rookie and sophomore seasons. Unlocking the next step in his game in year 3 will be the key to Cleveland going from a good team to a great one.
One Area I’m Sure: No Fly Zone
Cleveland’s 8th ranked offense from a season ago? Almost certain to regress some to the mean, even with their offense-first offseason additions. On the other hand, I have no doubts that their defense will again be at or near the top of the league thanks to their two excellent big men. We’ve discussed Mobley’s prowess, but one of the reasons that he’s able to be so effective and impactful roaming the paint is that he does not have to bang in the post as the primary option on opposing centers. That role is handled by Jarrett Allen, another defender who brings excellent length and both very good shot blocking and pass deflecting instincts. The combination of Mobley and Allen erases so many mistakes on the back end, and allows Cleveland’s perimeter defenders to guard the ball aggressively and take chances gambling for steals. Opposing players have to work hard to beat their man, only to find a wall at the rim that forces them to settle for low-percentage contested mid-range shots. Allen and Mobley also gobble up rebounds, and they are both skilled outlet passers, which is a critical element to the Cavs’ transition game. As long as their two big men are healthy, Cleveland’s defense will give them a chance to win every night in the regular season.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Sam Merrill
The final pick in the 2020 NBA draft out of Utah State, Sam Merrill has appeared in 41 games across 3 NBA seasons, with 30 of those appearances coming back in his rookie year of 2020-21. He’s not particularly young either - 2022-23 will be his age 27 season. Why then, you might ask, is Merrill being highlighted here when he’s most likely hanging on to his NBA life by a thread? The answer is simple - the Cavaliers are desperate for three pointers and Sam Merrill can really, really shoot. At the Summer League over the offseason, Merrill led all players with 25 made 3s, averaging a whopping 11.2 3pt. attempts per contest and connecting at a scorching 44.6% clip. Merrill has his deficiencies, as he’s undersized for a wing and will undoubtedly be a defensive liability. However, if he can bring true floor-bending shooting ability to the court, creating red alerts for the defense whenever he catches the ball, he could carve out a role on a Cleveland team that needs offensive help and is uniquely suited to hide his defense due to their excellent rim protection.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 51-31 (FanDuel o/u 50.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 16th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 3rd
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 7th
SACRAMENTO KINGS
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
Team Overview: Now for the Encore
In a remarkable stretch of futility, the Sacramento Kings missed the playoffs for 16 consecutive seasons from 2006-07 to 2021-22. In 2022-23, that nightmare finally came to an emphatic end, as the Kings posted the best offensive rating in league history on their way to a 48 win season and the Western Conference #3 seed. It was a banner year in all respects for Sacramento - 2022 trade deadline acquisition Domantas Sabonis and star point guard De’Aaron Fox each earned their first All-NBA nods, 1st year head coach Mike Brown took home NBA Coach of the Year, and the team combined with the city to create an iconic victory celebration. Before the season was even over, general manager Monte McNair had signed a contract extension, and following the season, Sabonis re-upped his deal to the tune of over $200 million guaranteed. Although they entered the offseason with some cap space and the capacity to make a few moves, the Kings instead opted to largely run back their 2022-23 roster in ‘23-24. All the focus on continuity makes sense for a franchise that had previously been so starved for success, and it’s a historical pattern we’ve seen from teams just entering their tier 3 phase. However, the question now looms of what lies next for the Kings. They got top-end seasons from many of the players on their roster and experienced tremendously good health in 2022-23. While they competed extremely hard and put up a valiant effort in the playoffs against the then-reigning champion Warriors, Sacramento was ultimately a team that exited the postseason in the first round. Maybe for this organization and their fans, taking the next step is irrelevant - maybe it’s good enough for basketball in the city to just be fun again. For me, I’ll be closely monitoring this team for signs of a potential jump - or for potential regression back down into tier 4.
Notable Offseason Move: Doubling Down on the Frontcourt
On draft night in late June, it sure looked like the Kings had a big free agent move lined up. Sacramento pulled the trigger on an intriguing trade, sending the #24 overall pick to the Mavericks along with big man Richaun Holmes in order to clear Holmes’ salary off of their books and open up over $30 million in cap space. With some big names available in the frontcourt market (Draymond Green, Jerami Grant, Kyle Kuzma) it seemed likely that the Kings would be moving on from their incumbent power forward Harrison Barnes (a free agent himself) in favor of somebody new. However, it never came to pass - Barnes was signed to an extension the day before free agency began, and the Kings used the remainder of their room to re-negotiate and extend Domantas Sabonis’ contract. It was a curious chain of events, because while the extra cap space helped them to lock up Sabonis a year early, they probably could have gotten that done without clearing Holmes’ contract. To give up a first round pick in order to dump salary, and then not utilize said salary cap space certainly seems like either an error in process or some sort of breakdown in communication with whatever prospective player they thought they were going to bring in. In the end, the Kings will roll with the same starting frontcourt they had a season ago - certainly not a disastrous outcome, but one that also feels like it was not necessarily the plan. Barnes is a good player and by all accounts an awesome locker room presence, but he is now on the wrong side of 30 and has historically been a better player in the regular season than the playoffs. With Sabonis’ defensive struggles, bringing in more of a rim protecting presence at the 4 might have been the best path to boosting Sacramento’s 24th rated defense from a season ago.
One Big Question: Injury Regression?
In 2022-23, none of the Kings top 8 players in terms of minutes per game appeared in less than 73 out of 82 possible games. In today’s NBA, that is absolutely wild durability and consistency amongst a regular season rotation, and it is sure to regress closer to the mean in 2023-24. To be clear, it’s not all luck - the Kings have a very young team, with Harrison Barnes the only member of that top 8 who will play 2023-24 at older than age 28. They also deserve credit for toughness - Domantas Sabonis suffered an avulsion fracture in his thumb in December and rather than opting for surgery, was able to grit it out and play the rest of the season at an All-NBA level. Sacramento’s youth and organizational emphasis on the importance of the regular season allows them to avoid missed games for load management, something that plagues many other top teams in the NBA, and leads not only to “schedule losses” but also a lack of chemistry and flow throughout a season. However, with all that being said, it’s still highly unlikely that the Kings make it through the upcoming season without at least one moderately severe injury taking out one of their key rotation pieces. When that does occur, the Kings’ depth, and ability to find that special chemistry that they had in 2022-23, will be tested. Can they be equally effective when they are forced into playing mismatching units and relying on the back end of their roster?
One Area I’m Sure: Fox’s Team
Domantas Sabonis is an excellent player. He mashes inferior bigs in the post, able to efficiently score at will when he catches the ball in the paint. His passing ability is second only to Nikola Jokic amongst big men, and the way that the Kings utilize him as a high post decision maker and handoff hub unlocked a record setting offense a season ago. However, last year’s playoffs should be all the proof needed that the Kings will ultimately go as far as De’Aaron Fox can take them. Whereas Sabonis’ game stagnated against a higher level of competition, Fox’s accelerated. Even playing through a fractured finger, Fox was the engine that pushed the Warriors to seven games. The speed at which he can get downhill and on top of the defense as a driver is second to none. His ability to get the Kings out in transition is critical for this team and is the catalyst for the avalanche of points that the Kings can unleash on the opposition. His improvement in the mid-range game last season took him to a new level closing games, as he’s nearly impossible to keep out of the paint and away from his floater and free-throw line jumper. While Sabonis can carry the Kings through the dog days of the regular season with his consistency against lesser opposition, Fox is the one player on the Kings roster with the ability to break elite level defense.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Keegan Murray
In the NBA, it’s exceedingly rare for rookies to come into the league and make a positive impact right away. Of course, each year sees a few exceptions to this rule, and of course, context matters - most times the top drafted talents are headed to bad teams and situations that are less than ideal, which can limit their ability to flourish. When the Kings selected Keegan Murray with the #4 overall pick in the 2022 draft, there was a thought that he might be one of the rare rookies ready to play due to his advanced age (22), sweet shooting stroke and mature overall scoring profile. These projections proved resoundingly correct - Murray started 78 out of the 80 games he played as a rookie, making 41.1% of his 3s and playing a critical role as a floor spacer and movement shooter around De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. While he showed less ability on the ball then some other top rookies in the class such as Paolo Banchero of the Magic or Jalen Williams of the Thunder, he was asked to play a far different role on a far better team and he executed it exceedingly well. Against the Warriors in the playoffs, Murray got off to a very slow start, scoring a combined 10 points and taking a combined 13 shots in the series’ first three games. Despite calls to move Murray to the bench, Mike Brown stuck with him in the starting lineup and it paid off in a major way - Murray averaged nearly 15 points per contest and shot 11-24 from distance in the final four games. This kind of resiliency shows a lot about who Murray is as a player - he figures out a way to contribute without plays being run for him and meshes well with ball-dominant players. However, if the Kings have a chance at breaking through to true contention, Murray finding the next level to his game will be key. I’ll be watching early on to see if there’s a notable shift in Murray’s usage as he heads into year 2.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 46-36 (FanDuel o/u 44.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 5th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 24th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 13th