Trade Deadline Primer: Bigs
Intro:
The NBA trade deadline (February 8th) is fast approaching, which means the rumor mill is in full swing. A few of the premier targets (OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Terry Rozier) are already off the board, but there are still many names available, and I expect a flurry of movement this week.
This is the fourth of five installments in my trade deadline primer, where I will break down the major trade candidates by position. In addition to the players who are available, it is important to grasp where each team stands as they survey the league for deals. Below is a simplified version of where I believe each organization is from a roster-building perspective:
*Note: This represents how I believe each actual front office sees their team, not necessarily how I would view each team if I were in charge*
Present-Focused Buyers: BOS, PHI, NYK, MIL, CLE, MIA, DEN, MIN, DAL, PHX, LAC, SAC, LAL
Future-Focused Buyers: IND, ORL, OKC, NOP, HOU
Somewhere In Between: TOR, CHI, DET, BKN, ATL, UTA, MEM, GSW
Sellers: CHA, WAS, POR, SAS
As has become the norm in the play-in era, there are far more teams looking to buy than looking to sell. Additionally, many of the clear buyers have similar team needs (perimeter defense, shooting, wing depth), and very few have significant asset depth or salary flexibility with which to work. The market will be condensed and competitive, and there aren’t many obvious blockbuster moves to be made.
However, this is the NBA: It’s very rare for there to be a transactional window entirely without drama. The trade deadline will be critical not only in determining this season’s champion, but also for positioning teams for free agency this upcoming summer.
Link to Part 1 (On-Ball Guards) / Link to Part 2 (Wing Guards) / Link to Part 3 (Wing Forwards)
TRADE CANDIDATE TIERS: BIGS
Tier 1: Potential Impact Starters/Closers
Lauri Markkanen, UTA (Age 26)
Contractual Status: $17.3M in ‘23-24, 1 year and $18.1M ($6M guaranteed if waived before 6/28/24) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 1 out of 10
Best Fits: OKC, PHI, GSW
First things first: I’ll be absolutely floored if Markkanen is actually traded before Thursday’s deadline. He’s included as a possibility only because there have been multiple reports about interested teams, which makes sense given the lack of impact talent elsewhere on the market. Danny Ainge has made big moves involving young stars before, but I imagine a team would have to give up significantly more than even the Donovan Mitchell or Rudy Gobert packages to pry away Markkanen.
Markkanen is one of the best offensive big men in basketball, and he has the versatility to play all three frontcourt positions. He’d be a perfect fit on the Thunder, where he could be the second shot creator behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander while also maintaining their preferred offensive style of spacing the floor from all five positions. However, it remains most likely that Utah will keep Markkanen and use their cap space this summer to re-negotiate and extend his current deal.
Tier 2: Proven Role Players
P.J. Washington, CHA (Age 25)
Contractual Status: $16.9M in ‘23-24, 2 years and $29.6M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 5 out of 10
Best Fits: DAL, SAC, NOP
Washington is a bit superfluous in Charlotte, where rookie Brandon Miller has forced his way into the starting lineup and the Hornets have other frontcourt options in Miles Bridges and Mark Williams. Additionally, his contract declines over each of the next two seasons, which should make him easier to trade. On the court, Washington provides better scoring and floor spacing than most players of his ilk, and in theory he can even play some small-ball center. However, it’s been a long time since Washington played any meaningful basketball in Charlotte, so it’s an open question how much he actually impacts winning.
Kelly Olynyk, UTA (Age 32)
Contractual Status: $12.1M in ‘23-24, unrestricted free agent following this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 5 out of 10
Best Fits: OKC, GSW, TOR
Olynyk is quietly a huge piece of Utah’s winning formula, as he is an excellent shooter for a big and a skilled enough passer that the Jazz run offense through him with their reserve unit. He’s a defensive liability because he’s not a rim protector, but he can spark bench offense and he’s a proven playoff contributor from his time with both Boston and Miami.
Bobby Portis, MIL (Age 28)
Contractual Status: $11.8M in ‘23-24, 2 years (second year player option) and $26M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 4 out of 10
Best Fits: DET, CLE, HOU
Portis has always been more useful in the regular season than the postseason during his time in Milwaukee, and he is one of the few sizable contracts on the Bucks’ books that can realistically be used as matching salary. He’s a defensive liability in most matchups, but he will provide the occasional scoring outburst off the bench, especially against weaker opponents.
Tier 3: Quality Rotation Depth
Jonathan Isaac, ORL (Age 26)
Contractual Status: $17.4M in ‘23-24, 1 year and $17.4M (fully non-guaranteed through 1/10/25)
Likelihood to be Moved: 5 out of 10
Best Fits: OKC, UTA, BKN
Isaac is one of the more fascinating trade candidates in the league. He’s a supremely impactful defensive player, but he’s also significantly overpaid given how injury-ravaged he’s been: Isaac has played just 43 games over the last four seasons combined, and even while staying mostly healthy in ‘23-24, he’s been limited to 15 minutes per night. Orlando’s crowded frontcourt makes him movable, as does his full non-guarantee for ‘24-25, and he could really help a contender as a supplementary rim protector.
P.J. Tucker, LAC (Age 38)
Contractual Status: $11.1M in ‘23-24, 1 year (player option) and $11.5M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 7 out of 10
Best Fits: MIL, PHX, NOP
Tucker has been out of the Clippers rotation for months now, and he’s publicly agitated for a move elsewhere. His age and fully guaranteed eight-figure salary for ‘24-25 limit his appeal, but Tucker has been one of the better playoff role players in the league for the better part of a decade due to his ability to defend three frontcourt positions and make catch and shoot corner threes.
Obi Toppin, IND (Age 25)
Contractual Status: $6.8M in ‘23-24, restricted free agent following this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 5 out of 10
Best Fits: DET, CHA, WAS
Toppin began the season as a starter, but he had been supplanted from that role even before the Pacers traded for Pascal Siakam. He seems unlikely to sign long term in Indiana, so a team interested in his restricted rights could make a move for him now. Toppin is an offensive weapon in transition and he shoots it well enough from beyond the arc, but he’s a one position defender (at best) at power forward who is hard to keep on the court in closing possessions of most games.
Tier 4: Dart Throws
Zeke Nnaji, DEN (Age 23)
Contractual Status: $4.3M in ‘23-24, 4 years (fourth year player option) and $32M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 3 out of 10
Best Fits: POR, TOR, CHI
Nnaji was given a contract extension over the summer for one reason: Denver needed a mid-tier salary that they could use in trade. He’s more useful in that role next season when acquiring teams won’t have to worry about base year compensationstipulations, but it’s still possible that he’s the Nuggets vehicle to acquiring some depth at this season’s trade deadline. Nnaji has never been able to secure the backup center job in Denver, but he’s still young and theoretically offers an intriguing combination of length, athleticism and defensive versatility.