Trade Deadline Primer: Wing Forwards
The NBA trade deadline (February 8th) is now less than two weeks away, which means the rumor mill is in full swing. A few of the premier targets (OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Terry Rozier) are already off the board, but there are still many names available, and I expect a flurry of movement in the next 10 days.
This is the first of five installments in my trade deadline primer, where I will break down the major trade candidates by position. In addition to the players who are available, it is important to grasp where each team stands as they survey the league for deals. Below is a simplified version of where I believe each organization is from a roster-building perspective:
*Note: This represents how I believe the actual front office sees their team, not necessarily how I would view each team if I were in charge*
Present-Focused Buyers: BOS, PHI, NYK, MIL, CLE, MIA, DEN, MIN, DAL, PHX, LAC, SAC, LAL
Future-Focused Buyers: IND, ORL, OKC, NOP, HOU
Somewhere In Between: TOR, CHI, DET, BKN, ATL, UTA, MEM, GSW
Sellers: CHA, WAS, POR, SAS
As has become the norm in the play-in era, there are far more teams looking to buy than looking to sell. Additionally, many of the clear buyers have similar team needs (perimeter defense, shooting, wing depth), and very few have significant asset depth or salary flexibility with which to work. The market will be condensed and competitive, and there aren’t many obvious blockbuster moves to be made.
However, this is the NBA: It’s very rare for there to be a transactional window entirely without drama. The trade deadline will be critical not only in determining this season’s champion, but also for positioning teams for free agency this upcoming summer.
Link to Part 1 (On-Ball Guards) / Link to Part 2 (Wing Guards)
TRADE CANDIDATE TIERS: WING FORWARDS
Tier 1: Potential Impact Starters/Closers
Jerami Grant, POR (Age 29)
Contractual Status: $27.6M in ‘23-24, 4 years (fourth year player option) and $132.4M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to Be Moved: 6 out of 10
Best Fits: DAL, SAC, PHI
Given that Grant is 29 already and will be making close to $35M in his age 33 season, it’s likely that there will be pain on the team side at the end of his current contract. However, he’s playing well enough to justify his $27.6M figure right now, which may be enough for present-focused teams to make the move and bring him in. Grant is a good (but not great) defender, good (but not great) three-point shooter, and good (but not great) secondary shot creator who can be a solid addition to a closing lineup as long as he is not asked to do too much.
Portland may not feel immediate pressure to move Grant, but I believe it behooves them to act now before his play falls off with age. They are unlikely to be competitive until at least ‘25-26, so if a desperate team is willing to offer even one good first round pick the Blazers should have no hesitation pulling the trigger.
DeMar DeRozan, CHI (Age 34)
Contractual Status: $28.6M in ‘23-24, unrestricted free agent following this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 3 out of 10
Best Fits: PHI, BKN, LAL
The Bulls are in the mix for a play-in spot in the East, which means it’s probably more likely that they hold on to DeRozan and look to re-sign him over the summer. However, if they come to their senses and decide to look towards the future, DeRozan is a reliable source of half-court scoring and playmaking that can jolt a middling offense.
DeMar will have some ability to influence his eventual landing spot because an acquiring team would probably want to be sure that he wants to stay once he reaches free agency. Likewise, if his representation determines that Chicago is the most likely (or only) team willing to give him a big new deal, it’s possible that he pushes to stay put.
Kyle Kuzma, WAS (Age 28)
Contractual Status: $25.6M in ‘23-24, 3 years and $64.4M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 5 out of 10
Best Fits: DAL, SAC, DET
Kuzma’s current contract was signed with the idea of trading him in mind: It’s why Washington structured it so that it descends in average annual value. The problem is, there’s not an obvious suitor willing to give up multiple first round picks, which is reportedly the Wizards’ asking price.
Kuzma is an adequate shooter, defender and shot creator, and he plays a position that is both highly valuable and difficult to fill. However, he’s probably not a big enough upgrade as the third scorer in a place like Dallas or Philly for those teams to fire their last remaining bullets to bring him in. I’m predicting that the Wizards choose to see what they can get for him in the offseason, when there may be more teams willing to enter the bidding.
Harrison Barnes, SAC (Age 31)
Contractual Status: $17M in ‘23-24, 2 years and $37M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 4 out of 10
Best Fits: UTA, SAS, MEM
Barnes is a solid, reliable starter at either forward spot thanks to his capable spot-up shooting and passable frontcourt defense. He’s also the most obvious player the Kings can upgrade on as they look to elevate their playoff ceiling, and his contract is pretty easy matching salary in just about any move.
Barnes probably fits best on a team like San Antonio that just needs viable NBA players to put next to their young talent. However, it’s not out of the question that he can still be a valuable piece on a playoff team, especially one that is not wholly reliant on him to close games if he’s having an off shooting night.
Bojan Bogdanovic, DET (Age 34)
Contractual Status: $20M in ‘23-24, 1 year and $19M ($2M guaranteed if waived before 6/29/24) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 7 out of 10
Best Fits: LAL, LAC, PHI
Bogdanovic is older, worse on defense, and more of an injury risk than Kuzma or Barnes. However, he’s also a vastly superior shooter and more efficient overall scorer than either one of those players, and he offers a shorter-term financial commitment.
Detroit held Bogdanovic through last season’s deadline when it was obvious that they should have traded him, so they might do the same this year. If they choose to collect what they can for him, he can help a team in need of an upgrade on the wing that also wants to preserve future salary flexibility.
Tier 2: Proven Role Players
Miles Bridges, CHA (Age 25)
Contractual Status: $7.9M in ‘23-24, unrestricted free agent following this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 8 out of 10
Best Fits: PHI, PHX, MIA
Bridges is a difficult player to value due to his troubling off-court history. When he’s played this season, he has been largely the same player he was back in his breakout season of ‘21-22. If Charlotte is no longer interested in signing him long term, they may be able to get draft compensation in return, but between the PR headache and the lack of team control beyond this season, it’s possible he has no market.
Jonathan Kuminga, GSW (Age 21)
Contractual Status: $6M in ‘23-24, 1 year and $7.6M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 2 out of 10
Best Fits: TOR, UTA, DET
Kuminga has seemingly finally earned the trust of Steve Kerr over the last few weeks, and has played well since being inserted into the starting lineup full time. I think he’s off limits in trade unless a true superstar shakes loose on the market, as that is the type of addition Golden State would need to propel themselves back into title contention.
De’Andre Hunter, ATL (Age 26)
Contractual Status: $20.1M in ‘23-24, 3 years and $69.9M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 5 out of 10
Best Fits: MIL, TOR, DET
Hunter appears to have all the necessary traits to be a high-level three and D wing, but it hasn’t happened yet for him and he’s probably slightly overpaid on his current deal as a result. The Hawks have other ways they can shed money, but if another team values Hunter positively, I could see Atlanta clearing his contract off of their future books.
Andrew Wiggins, GSW (Age 28)
Contractual Status: $24.3M in ‘23-24, 3 years (third year player option) and $84.7M remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 4 out of 10
Best Fits: TOR, WAS, DET
Wiggins is in the midst of a truly horrific season, and what looked like a steal of an extension when he signed it now looks like one of the worst contracts in the NBA. Wiggins is still just 28, so a team with financial flexibility might convince themselves that they can get him back to the level he showed during Golden State’s 2022 championship run. Most likely, the Warriors would probably have to incentivize a potential suitor to absorb Wiggins by including draft capital along with him.
Gordon Hayward, CHA (Age 33)
Contractual Status: $31.5M in ‘23-24, unrestricted free agent following this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 3 out of 10
Best Fits: MIA, IND, LAL
Hayward is unlikely to be traded due to his $31.5M price tag, but he would be one of the premier options on the buyout market if he can get healthy and wants to join a contender. He’s nowhere near the player he was at his peak, but he has good positional size and brings more shot creation than the average bench wing.
Saddiq Bey, ATL (Age 24)
Contractual Status: $4.6M in ‘23-24, restricted free agent following this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 7 out of 10
Best Fits: CLE, SAC, DAL
If Bey were a little bit better of a shooter or a lot better of a defender, he’d probably be readying himself for a sizable new contract given his positional value. As is, Atlanta probably does not have the financial flexibility to pay him what he will be looking for this summer. He makes sense for teams that need quality 15-20 adequate 3&D playoff minutes, but not those who are looking for starters/closers.
Dorian Finney-Smith, BKN (Age 30)
Contractual Status: $13.3M in ‘23-24, 2 years (second year player option) and $29.6M remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 7 out of 10
Best Fits: LAL, MEM, SAC
Finney-Smith hasn’t been nearly as effective of a role player in Brooklyn as he was in Dallas, probably due to a combination of aging and not having Luka Doncic to set him up for wide open threes. He’s an above average defender of bigger forwards but struggles with quicker wings, and his offensive contributions outside of catching and shooting are minimal.
Royce O’Neale, BKN (Age 30)
Contractual Status: $9.5M in ‘23-24, unrestricted free agent following this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 9 out of 10
Best Fits: MIL, PHX, CLE
O’Neale offers a similar package to Bey, but he’s older and is likely to have far more reasonable contract demands next summer. He makes enough threes to be guarded, and he’s not going to be targeted defensively, even if he’s not really a standout contributor in any particular defensive area.
Tier 3: Quality Rotation Depth
Pat Connaughton, MIL (Age 31)
Contractual Status: $9.5M in ‘23-24, 2 years (second year player option) and $19M remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 6 out of 10
Best Fits: CHI, TOR, ATL
Connaughton has had plenty of solid playoff moments in Milwaukee, but he’s starting to look a little washed this season, perhaps due to the multiple injuries he’s had to work through. He’s one of the few matching salaries the Bucks have to work with, so he’s a candidate to be included in any deal they make. He’s a professional who tries on defense and shoots it well enough, so he can help a team looking to stabilize their bench unit.
Rui Hachimura, LAL (Age 25)
Contractual Status: $15.8M in ‘23-24, 2 years and $35.2M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 4 out of 10
Best Fits: CHI, POR, DET
Hachimura’s excellent 2023 playoffs look like an anomaly, but injuries have also contributed to the up and down nature of his ‘23-24 campaign. He doesn’t shoot or defend well enough to be a consistently positive contributor for a contender, but his shot creation and size does have value in the regular season.
Cody Martin CHA (Age 28)
Contractual Status: $7.5M in ‘23-24, 2 years (second year non-guaranteed) and $16.7M ($8.1M guaranteed if waived before 6/30/25) beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 5 out of 10
Best Fits: MIA, PHX, MIL
Injuries are a major concern with Martin, but at his best he’s a good defensive player who can get hot and provide an offensive spark off the bench. He’s on a reasonable contract, so he could be a logical target for a contender without much financial wiggle room looking to fortify the back end of their rotation.
Matisse Thybulle, POR (Age 26)
Contractual Status: $10.5M in ‘23-24, 2 years (second year player option) and $22.5M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 4 out of 10
Best Fits: CLE, UTA, GSW
Thybulle has the ability to veto any trade, so that may remove him from the market altogether. If he is amenable to a deal, he’s one of the best help defenders in the NBA who is difficult to find minutes for because he’s also one of the league’s worst all-around offensive players.
Jalen McDaniels, TOR (Age 25)
Contractual Status: $4.5M in ‘23-24, 1 year and $4.8M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 8 out of 10
Best Fits: DAL, BOS, SAC
McDaniels has largely fallen out of the rotation in Toronto, and they have enough bodies in the frontcourt that they’d likely be willing to move him for a relatively low return. He’s been more helpful in theory than in practice so far in his career, but he’s the type of player teams will take a chance on because he’s not hopeless as a shooter and he has the physical tools to guard multiple perimeter spots.
Robert Covington, PHI (Age 33)
Contractual Status: $11.6M in ‘23-24, unrestricted free agent following this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 8 out of 10
Best Fits: PHX, OKC, SAC
Covington would almost certainly be included in any deal the Sixers make as matching salary, so he may be an eventual target on the buyout market. He’s been unable to consistently factor in either the Clippers’ or Sixers’ rotation this season, but he’s forward-sized and still willing to catch and fire from three.
Marcus Morris, PHI (Age 34)
Contractual Status: $17.1M in ‘23-24, unrestricted free agent following this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 9 out of 10
Best Fits: DAL, MIA, CLE
Morris fits into the exact same bucket as Covington as likely matching salary if Philly is able to make a big move. He’s a bit less reliable as a defender than Covington, but also theoretically offers a higher upside on the offensive end.
Wesley Matthews, ATL (Age 37)
Contractual Status: $3.1M in ‘23-24, unrestricted free agent following this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 3 out of 10
Best Fits: MIL, PHX, DEN
Matthews has been injured for most of the season, and he may just be toast at this point in his career. However, he’s by all accounts a great locker room presence, he’s strong enough to guard up against big wings, and he gets guarded at the three point line.
Tier 4: Dart Throws
K.J. Martin, PHI (Age 23)
Contractual Status: $2.0M in ‘23-24, unrestricted free agent following this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 6 out of 10
Best Fits: ATL, POR, WAS
Given that Martin has been glued to the bench for the entirety of this season, it’s probably safe to assume that he isn’t ready to help a contender. Last we saw him in Houston, he was still an athletic freak who can help juice transition offense, and he may be able to develop for a team that can give him consistent playing time.
Yuta Watanabe PHX (Age 29)
Contractual Status: $2.4M in ‘23-24, 1 year (player option) and $2.7M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 5 out of 10
Best Fits: MIL, NOP, HOU
Watanabe was very good in a limited role for the Nets last season, but he’s fallen out of Frank Vogel’s favor in Phoenix. If he can re-discover his three-point stroke, he’s an adequate defender with good size who might be able to soak up some back-end rotation minutes in a new location.
Aleksej Pokusevski OKC (Age 22)
Contractual Status: $5.1M in ‘23-24, restricted free agent following this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 3 out of 10
Best Fits: TOR, WAS, CHA
Poku appears to be entirely out of OKC’s long-term plans, but he’s still young enough that a team with playing time to spare could take a chance on him in order to secure his restricted free agent rights. Most likely, he’s not an NBA player, but if it all hits, his combination of skill and size is intriguing.