Trade Deadline Primer: Wing Guards
Intro:
The NBA trade deadline (February 8th) is now less than two weeks away, which means the rumor mill is in full swing. A few of the premier targets (OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Terry Rozier) are already off the board, but there are still many names available, and I expect a flurry of movement in the next 10 days.
This is the first of five installments in my trade deadline primer, where I will break down the major trade candidates by position. In addition to the players who are available, it is important to grasp where each team stands as they survey the league for deals. Below is a simplified version of where I believe each organization is from a roster-building perspective:
*Note: This represents how I believe the actual front sees their team, not necessarily how I would view each team if I were in charge*
Present-Focused Buyers: BOS, PHI, NYK, MIL, CLE, MIA, DEN, MIN, DAL, PHX, LAC, SAC, LAL
Future-Focused Buyers: IND, ORL, OKC, NOP, HOU
Somewhere In Between: TOR, CHI, DET, BKN, ATL, UTA, MEM, GSW
Sellers: CHA, WAS, POR, SAS
As has become the norm in the play-in era, there are far more teams looking to buy than looking to sell. Additionally, many of the clear buyers have similar team needs (perimeter defense, shooting, wing depth), and very few have significant asset depth or salary flexibility with which to work. The market will be condensed and competitive, and there aren’t many obvious blockbuster moves to be made.
However, this is the NBA: It’s very rare for there to be a transactional window entirely without drama. The trade deadline will be critical not only in determining this season’s champion, but also for positioning teams for free agency this upcoming summer.
Link to Part 1 (On-Ball Guards)
TRADE CANDIDATE TIERS: WING GUARDS
Tier 1: Potential Impact Starters/Closers
Alex Caruso CHI (Age 29)
Contractual Status: $9.5M in ‘23-24, 1 year and $9.9M ($3M guaranteed if waived before 6/30/2024) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 4 out of 10
Best Fits: BOS, PHI, DEN
Caruso is one of the best defensive players in basketball, and a proven high-impact role player who makes every contender more dangerous. He’s in the midst of the most efficient shooting season of his career as well, thanks to career-best 41.5% 3FG on moderate volume. His contract is part of the appeal, as he’s massively underpaid for the value he provides and under team control through the ‘24-25 season.
Unfortunately, the Bulls seem reluctant to actually make Caruso available as they continue their unending pursuit of the 8th seed in the East. While he’s an extremely valuable player, paying the reported price of multiple first round picks likely isn’t in the cards for most of the interested teams. Caruso is also an injury risk, as his style of play leads to a lot of nagging ailments and he struggles to handle a heavy minutes load.
Austin Reaves LAL (Age 25)
Contractual Status: $12M in ‘23-24, 3 years (third year player option) and $41.7M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 1 out of 10
Best Fits: ORL, UTA, BKN
I don’t think Reaves is likely to be traded, but this is the Lakers we’re talking about: Making rash, near-sighted moves is never completely off the table. If a re-tooling team could figure out a way to finagle Reaves away from LA, he would be the steal of the deadline thanks to his combination of starting-level combo guard play and very affordable contract.
The hype on Reaves may have gotten a little out of control after his 2023 playoffs and successful stint with Team USA in the FIBA World Cup, but the idea that he’s been part of the problem for the underachieving Lakers is equally silly. He offers efficient tertiary shot creation and playmaking, and he can be part of an effective defense even if he can be attacked in 1v1 situations. For a younger team in need of shot creation, he remains an excellent fit.
Josh Giddey OKC (Age 21)
Contractual Status: $6.6M in ‘23-24, 1 year and $8.4M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 2 out of 10
Best Fits: UTA, SAS, DET
Although I don’t expect that OKC will be looking to move on from Giddey, it’s possible that he still has enough league-wide prospect appeal to be one of the centerpieces in a superstar trade. Who that superstar would be isn’t readily apparent, but Sam Presti and the Thunder have snuck up on NBA media with megadeals in the past, so I can’t completely rule it out.
Giddey is a bit out of place with the Thunder, where his defensive flaws and shooting concerns loom large. In a different situation where he gets more on-ball reps, he may still have enough to offer as a passer and shot creator to intrigue teams looking for perimeter help. He’s extension eligible following this season, so if OKC is not ready to commit to him long term, that only further incentivizes them to be aggressive in shopping him.
Tier 2: Proven Role Players
Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL (Age 31)
Contractual Status: $18.7M in ‘23-24, 3 years (third year team option) and $49.2M ($33.2M guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 5 out of 10
Best Fits: ORL, LAL, MEM
Bogdanovic has quietly been a huge driver of Atlanta’s success on the offensive end due to his ability to bomb three-pointers. He also offers solid playmaking and shot creation out of pick and roll as a third guard. He’s under team control at a reasonable rate, so he should have widespread appeal, but it also may take a significant haul to pry him loose. Bogdanovic does have an injury history, but he’s been healthy so far this season.
Bruce Brown TOR (Age 27)
Contractual Status: $22M in ‘23-24, 1 year (team option) and $23M ($0M guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 7 out of 10
Best Fits: LAL, UTA, DAL
Brown has already been moved once this season, and I think he may be on the move again given that Toronto is unlikely to pick up his team option for ‘24-25. The outside shooting he showed in Denver last season may end up being an outlier, but even at his current level he provides a ton of value as a plus defender across multiple positions who provides more on-ball playmaking than most role players. He’s best served as a third guard who can close games in the right matchup.
Quentin Grimes NYK (Age 23)
Contractual Status: $2.4M in ‘23-24, 1 year and $4.3M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 4 out of 10
Best Fits: GSW, LAL, HOU
Grimes lost his starting job this season, and he’s publicly agitated about his role in New York, which has led to speculation that he could be available. In my opinion, moving Grimes would be a mistake: He’s a plus three-point shooter who is a capable defender on the wing, and he should be cost-controllable for multiple seasons. If the Knicks are willing to part ways, he’s the exact type of role player that just about every team in the league should be looking to add.
Kevin Huerter SAC (Age 25)
Contractual Status: $15.7M in ‘23-24, 2 years and $34.7M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 6 out of 10
Best Fits: LAC, CHI, MEM
If the Kings are able to pull off a big move to upgrade their frontcourt, it’s possible that Huerter would be involved as the matching salary. He’s been in and out of Mike Brown’s starting lineup this season, and Brown has often closed games with Malik Monk at the two and Huerter on the bench. Huerter has defensive concerns, but he at least brings solid positional size and he is a great fit for teams that can weaponize his ability to shoot out of handoff and pindown actions.
Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL (Age 31)
Contractual Status: $17.9M in ‘23-24, 1 year and $16.2M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 3 out of 10
Best Fits: DET, ORL, HOU
Hardaway Jr. is in the midst of a bounce back season, and he plays a critical regular season role as a volume scorer off the bench for the Mavs. However, he’s also one of the few mid-tier salaries on Dallas’ books and as such, is a candidate to be included in a deal for a third star to play with Luka and Kyrie. As long as he’s knocking down threes, Hardaway Jr. can help raise the offensive floor of teams in dire need of shooting.
Gary Trent Jr. TOR (Age 25)
Contractual Status: $18.6M in ‘23-24, unrestricted free agent following this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 8 out of 10
Best Fits: PHI, LAC, ORL
Trent Jr. basically offers the exact same package as Hardaway Jr., but he’s been a little less productive and consistent this season. On the other hand, he has a better chance to be acceptable on the defensive end due to his age and physical strength, and he is a free agent at season’s end. The Raptors may just hold on to Trent Jr. in order to bring him back at a lower cost next season, but if he’s not a part of their long-term plans, he could be available for a relatively little in the way of draft compensation.
Duncan Robinson MIA (Age 29)
Contractual Status: $18.1M in ‘23-24, 2 years (second year early termination option) and $39.3M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 3 out of 10
Best Fits: DET, ORL, SAS
Robinson’s reformation began in the 2023 playoffs, and it has carried over into ‘23-24. He’s one of the best movement shooters in the NBA, and his mere presence on the floor bends a defense and creates space. However, he remains a clear weak link on the defensive end, and his salary in the coming years is questionable given his streaky track record. The Heat may be looking to use his contract as part of a move for a significant upgrade now, while his value is at least somewhat rehabilitated.
Tier 3: Quality Rotation Depth
Luke Kennard MEM (Age 27)
Contractual Status: $14.8M in ‘23-24, 1 year (team option) and $14.8M ($0M guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 7 out of 10
Best Fits: HOU, UTA, CHI
The Grizzlies are facing a financial crunch in the coming seasons as their young core becomes more expensive, which may impact their ability to pick up Kennard’s option for ‘24-25. He offers a similar package to many of the options in tier 2 (shooting, secondary playmaking, questionable defense). However, he’s also missed significant time due to various injuries throughout his career, which makes him a less reliable piece for playoff teams.
Corey Kispert WAS (Age 24)
Contractual Status: $3.7M in ‘23-24, 1 year and $5.7M (fully guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 3 out of 10
Best Fits: NOP, HOU, SAS
Michael Winger and the new Wizards’ front office did not draft Kispert, and they may not see him as part of the long-term solution in Washington. He offers cheap shooting (although not much else), and an interested party could lock him up when he becomes extension eligible at the end of the season.
Cedi Osman SAS (Age 28)
Contractual Status: $6.7M in ‘23-24, unrestricted free agent following this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 9 out of 10
Best Fits: CLE, DAL, MIN
Osman isn’t going to swing a playoff game or series on his own, but he offers enough shooting and defense on the wing to survive for 10-15 minutes at the back end of a playoff rotation. Given his upcoming free agency, San Antonio will likely be looking to move him even if the return is marginal.
Tier 4: Dart Throws
Max Christie LAL (Age 20)
Contractual Status: $1.7M in ‘23-24, restricted free agent following this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 5 out of 10
Best Fits: ATL, CHA, WAS
Christie hasn’t been consistent enough to stick in the Lakers’ rotation this year, but he’s super young and his theoretical skill set of perimeter defense, shooting and athleticism is enticing. The Lakers are strapped for draft capital, so Christie may be a piece they need to include to get a deal across the finish line. If that’s the case, he could end up being a steal for a young team that can let him develop with consistent playing time.
Evan Fournier NYK (Age 31)
Contractual Status: $18.9M in ‘23-24, 1 year (team option) and $19M ($0M guaranteed) remaining beyond this season
Likelihood to be Moved: 3 out of 10
Best Fits: LAC, MIN, DEN
Fournier has been stapled to the bench in New York for the better part of two seasons, but his bloated contract is probably the best salary-matching piece the Knicks have left. He’s a buyout candidate if moved to a rebuilder at the deadline, and it’s possible he still has some bench scoring to offer in a different situation.