Power Rankings Update: Tier 3 (Part 2)
TIER 3: COMPETITIVE PLAYOFF TEAMS LACKING CHAMPIONSHIP UPSIDE
Tier 3 is an interesting organizational dilemma. These teams are good - they have a proven baseline of regular season competence and a likely floor of a playoff berth. Typically, tier 3 teams have an all-star or two surrounded by high quality depth and solid coaching, the type of ingredients that make a team fun to watch on a nightly basis. However, for varying reasons, these teams have a limited playoff ceiling. It’s difficult to objectively evaluate these rosters (as currently constructed) and make a realistic case for them reaching the NBA finals, let alone winning it - for tier 3 teams making the playoffs is the standard, winning a round is the goal and winning two is a home run.
Tier 3 can be a fun place to be, especially for organizations like Cleveland, Sacramento and New York who have experienced so much pain and dysfunction. Winning 55-60% of your regular season games and battling the big boys come playoff time is a welcome change when you're used to chasing lottery balls every year. The problem? Tier 3 usually has a shelf life - ask DeMar DeRozan and Dwane Casey about being sent packing by the Raptors or Quin Snyder and Rudy Gobert about the disbanding of the Jazz. Eventually, the feeling of playoff hopelessness starts to hurt just as much as the regular seasons losses used to and fans start to push for a move towards being all in. For a few of the teams you will see below, now may not quite be that time, but have no doubt it’s coming. Being strategic about when and how to try and take that final leap to true contender status is the name of the game.
*For a refresher on the the layout of this power rankings update, click here
**All stats courtesy of basketballreference.com or NBA.com unless stated otherwise
DALLAS MAVERICKS
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing significant time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 45-37 (7th in West)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 6th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 20th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 11th
Current Metrics:
Record: 22-15 (6th in West)
Offensive Rating: 10th
Defensive Rating: 16th
Net Rating: 12th
Team Overview: Surprisingly Stable
In my preseason power rankings, I included Dallas as my final team in tier 2. With an MVP candidate in Luka Doncic and a proven All-Star second option in Kyrie Irving, I thought that the ceiling for Dallas was sky-high, but I also acknowledged that with Irving’s shaky off-court history and the Mavs lack of proven depth outside their two stars, their potential for disaster was very real as well.
Now that I’m re-assessing the Mavs, I no longer feel as though that extreme variance between their ceiling and their floor exists. Even if Irving disappears, Doncic is too good to let this team bottom out entirely: Kyrie has missed 16 of Dallas’ 37 games and the Mavs are still seven games over .500. However, despite some surprisingly solid contributions from players like Derrick Jones Jr., Dante Exum, and Dereck Lively, I’m not sure that Dallas has enough to make a truly deep run into the playoffs.
Where I Was Right: Overall Team Quality
In all honesty, my boom-or-bust preseason outlook on Dallas has proven to be off the mark: This is a pretty classic example of a tier 3 team. However, I did project that the Mavs would finish the season with the 11th best net rating in the NBA, and they currently rank 12th.
Dallas has been a little better on defense and a little worse on offense than I thought, but they remain one of the most consistent watches in the league. The offense is going to be Luka Doncic working out of isolation or high pick & roll with a spaced floor, and the defense is going to be switch-heavy and conservative. The Mavs generate a ton of threes, never turn the ball over, and absolutely suck at defending in transition.
Despite Luka’s insane individual production and efficiency, the heliocentric style of offense he plays is no longer consistently producing elite offense, like it was during James Harden’s prime years in Houston. I think it’s fair to wonder if that style is more of a floor raiser than a ceiling raiser in the modern NBA, and I do think it will be interesting to see if Doncic is able to adapt his game should the Mavs add additional talent during his time with the team.
Where I Was Wrong: Overvaluing Grant Williams
I was a huge proponent of Dallas’ offseason acquisition of Grant Williams, and I was extremely bullish on his ability to fit perfectly as a complementary piece next to Doncic. While I don’t think Williams has played poorly in Dallas by any means, I’m willing to admit that I may have overestimated how much he could do to boost the Mavericks’ overall prospects.
Head coach Jason Kidd has shifted Williams from the starting lineup to a bench role of late, and it has almost immediately paid dividends. Part of the move has to do with Dallas’ reserve big situation: With Maxi Kleber having barely played this season due to injury, Williams is more capable of filling his shoes than other candidates like Dwight Powell or Richaun Holmes. However, it’s also clear that something was missing from the Mavs’ previous starting group. In 219 possessions, the five man unit of Doncic/Irving/Jones Jr./Williams/Lively has played to a -2.8 net rating. In contrast, that same unit with Dante Exum plugged in for Williams has absolutely demolished opponents: Dallas’ new starting group is scoring 146.4 points per 100 possessions and has a preposterous +59.4 net rating.
The new starting five has only logged 59 possessions together, so there is undoubtedly some small sample size wonkiness that will regress to the mean. However, Exum is a better fit because he gives Dallas a better point of attack defender than Williams, and he also provides another player who can make decisions with the ball in his hands. Williams’ low-usage stability is valuable, but his complete lack of playmaking or shot creation is more of a limiting factor than I originally believed, even on a team where Luka Doncic handles so much of the offensive load.
Outlook Going Forward: Now What?
After the unmitigated disaster that was 2022-23, Dallas desperately needed a stable start to this season. Their success so far has given the organization a chance to catch their breath, and the front office deserves major props for getting real contributions from players who were signed to minimum contracts.
However, from a macro perspective, this is still a team that has Luka Doncic in his prime. They should be competing for a championship, not patting themselves on the back for building a bottom-half playoff team. Outside of praying that Doncic goes absolutely nuclear in the playoffs and carries them to the Finals, the pathway to championship contention in Dallas does not seem any less murky than it did at the end of last season.
I believe Doncic is capable of winning a playoff series against anyone because he is good enough to be the best player on the floor on any given night. I also think that an offense that revolves entirely around Luka’s shot creation with a spaced floor becomes very predictable in the postseason, and has a limited ceiling. In my view, Dallas has to find a way to add talent and/or dynamism to their current roster in some form or fashion to break free from tier 3.
NEW YORK KNICKS
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing significant time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 46-36 (5th in East)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 10th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 16th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 12th
Current Metrics:
Record: 21-15 (8th in East)
Offensive Rating: 9th
Defensive Rating: 15th
Net Rating: 9th
Team Overview: Reconfiguration
By trading Immanuel Quickley and R.J. Barrett to the Raptors in exchange for OG Anunoby, the Knicks have signaled that the long-anticipated final form of this roster is on its way. Anunoby on his own does not make New York a championship contender, but he is the type of 3&D wing who fits perfectly alongside high-usage stars. The Knicks already have one of those in Jalen Brunson, and they remained well-positioned even after this trade to pounce when the right fit next to Brunson comes available.
As far as their current on-court product is concerned, the Knicks once again profile as a mid-tier playoff team, above average in most areas. They are deep at every position, they play hard every night, and they have a cohesive group that seems to enjoy sharing the court with one another.
Where I Was Right: Roster In Flux
Unlike some of their counterparts in tier 3, I don’t believe team President Leon Rose and the Knicks front office is content with building a team that is simply competent. New York has proven that with their current core, they should be a competitive playoff team for each of the next three to five seasons, but Rose was still willing to shake things up. The search will not stop with Anunoby: I’m expecting that move to be the first in a series of changes.
Brunson is an All-Star, but he's probably best served as a second option on a true championship team. Julius Randle has shown he can help a team rack up regular season wins, but his volume-over-efficiency scoring game has proven to be less effective against the best teams and in the playoffs. The Knicks clearly know that their ceiling with those two as their lead creators is limited, but similarly to the preseason, there is no obvious star out there for New York to pursue.
I like Rose’s proactivity in acquiring championship level role players like Josh Hart, Donte DiVincenzo and Anunoby over the last 12 months. He’s created a roster capable of contending if and when they do receive that final infusion of superstar talent. However, the most difficult piece of the puzzle is still missing, and this remains an unfinished rebuild until it is found.
Where I Was Wrong: Grimes Breakout
In my preseason preview, I hyped up Quentin Grimes as a player to watch, and was skeptical of the Knicks aggressive acquisition of Donte DiVincenzo. While I still believe the money New York spent on DiVincenzo could have been allocated elsewhere, he looks a lot less superfluous now that the Knicks have moved on from Quickley. DiVincenzo has also shined in New York, shooting a career high 44.2% from three while taking his most attempts per 36 minutes (9.6).
Unfortunately for Grimes, DiVincenzo has supplanted him in Tom Thibodeau’s starting lineup. After looking like the long-term answer at shooting guard through a strong 2022-2023 regular and postseason, Grimes is under 40% shooting from the field in 2023-24 and has seen his minutes get slashed by nearly 10 per game. He was vocal early in the year about wanting more touches and an expanded role, and it wasn’t long after that that Thibodeau moved him to the bench.
Grimes is still shooting 38.3% from beyond the arc, and my outlook for his future remains high. However, it’s disappointing that he couldn’t lock down his starting spot in his third season, and he may profile more as a high-level reserve wing than the 3&D stud I was projecting.
Outlook Going Forward: Pushing for Home Court
As I stated, I’m anticipating at least one more wave of significant change to hit this Knicks roster. However, I don’t think the next domino falls during this season: I’m guessing any further moves made before the trade deadline will be marginal improvements to the team’s depth.
As such, I believe the goal for New York remains pushing for the 4 seed, securing home court advantage in the first round, and hopefully advancing to the second round of the playoffs. I think they have as much or more talent than any of the other teams in the Eastern conference’s second tier, and Anunoby will give them a defensive chess piece that they did not have during last year’s postseason run.
My biggest question is Randle. He’s rebounded after a slow start to the season, but he remains under 30% from beyond the arc, and he’s below league average efficiency (56.7% true shooting) overall. I’d like to see Randle’s usage lessened a bit, but with Barrett and Quickley both gone, the Knicks are strapped for shot creation outside of Brunson. If Randle’s already-outsized role gets even bigger, his efficiency could crater even further and negatively impact New York’s 9th-ranked offense.
SACRAMENTO KINGS
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing significant time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 46-36 (6th in West)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 5th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 24th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 13th
Current Metrics:
Record: 21-14 (5th in West)
Offensive Rating: 14th
Defensive Rating: 20th
Net Rating: 18th
Team Overview: Search Mode
If you were to solely look at Sacramento’s stellar 21-14 record, you might assume that the ‘23-24 Kings are enjoying similar success to their ‘22-23 counterparts. However, the underlying metrics paint a less rosy picture: Sacramento’s league-best offense last season has regressed to 16th so far this year, and they actually have a negative net rating (-0.2). Basketball Reference’s expected win/loss total for Sacramento sits at 17-18, meaning they have significantly outplayed their point differential, and are a candidate for regression as we enter the season’s second half.
While the Kings deserve credit for consistently figuring out a way to win close games, history tells us crunch time victories are more a product of random variance than skill. Head coach Mike Brown seems to be aware that his team has not performed at the level he needs: He has constantly fiddled with his rotation, most recently removing shooting guard Kevin Huerter from the starting lineup in favor of Chris Duarte.
Sacramento has also been in the news as one of the teams expected to be most active at the trade deadline. Raptors forward Pascal Siakam could be a trade target, as the Kings are clearly looking to upgrade their frontcourt and beef up their defense.
Where I Was Right: Fox’s Team
One of my biggest takeaways from Sacramento’s inspiring seven-game effort against the Warriors in the 2023 postseason was De’Aaron Fox’s ability to maintain a high level of play in the playoffs. This was especially jarring in comparison to his co-star, Domantas Sabonis, whose effectiveness fell off.
Perhaps empowered by his playoff success to seize center stage, Fox has taken his game to an even higher level in 2023-24. He’s upped his usage from 30.1% to 32.4%, and he’s taken a major step forward as a three point shooter: After making 32.4% of his 5.0 3PA per game in 2022-23, Fox is nailing 38.7% of a whopping 8.4 3PA per game this season.
Fox’s outsized impact is evident in his on/off metrics. With him on the floor, Sacramento’s offensive rating is 120.7, and they outscore their opponents by 3.3 points per 100 possessions. When Fox sits, Sacramento’s ORTG plummets to 110.6, and opponents outscore them by 8.8 points per 100 possessions. That +12.1 net rating swing puts Fox in the 97th percentile among all players (Cleaning the Glass).
Where I Was Wrong: Trusting the Offense
The Kings were a poor defensive team in 2022-23 (116.8 DRTG, 25th out of 30), but they were able to overcome it by leading the league in offense (119.8 ORTG). Coming into this season, I expected the Kings to utilize a similar model for success, projecting them to finish 5th in offense and 24th in defense.
While their defense has remained subpar (identical 116.8 DRTG), their offense (116.6 ORTG) has fallen off. It’s hard to pinpoint any one glaring weak point in their statistical profile, but there are a couple of moderate red flags. Last year, they were one of the league’s best teams at generating free throws (.225 FT/FGA, 7th in NBA), but this year that has been a major weakness (.178, 26th). They’ve also seen drop-offs in three-point effectiveness from Huerter (40.2% 3FG -> 34.2%) and Keegan Murray (41.1% 3FG -> 36.2%), and they’ve gotten significantly less consistent production from their bench unit outside of Malik Monk. Trey Lyles has missed 14 games due to injury and Davion Mitchell has been in and out of Brown’s rotation.
It’s all adding up to just marginally worse production on the offensive end, which is a big issue for a team whose entire identity is built around scoring. I do think Sacramento is closer to a top ten unit the rest of the way, but it’s hard to see them getting back to the elite level they showed last season.
Outlook Going Forward: Still Playoff Bound?
You might be noticing that this Kings section has a largely negative slant and wondering why I still have them in tier 3. The answer is a two-parter:
First, I believe in De’Aaron Fox as an All-NBA level guard, and I also believe in Mike Brown as one of the ten best head coaches in basketball. With that combination, there’s a certain level of competence that I find it hard to believe Sacramento will slip beneath. Even beyond Fox, Sabonis is an effective regular season player, and Malik Monk is on the short list of Sixth Man of the Year candidates.
The second reason is that I expect the organizational focus in Sacramento to remain on making the playoffs at all costs. We’ve seen them make in-season, win-now moves in the past (i.e. trading Tyrese Haliburton for Sabonis), and they have plenty of picks and matching salary with which to make a move. More so than some other teams in the West, I believe the Kings will be pushing hard to ensure a spot in the top 6 at the expense of a higher-level outcome at some point in the future.
With that being said, this team is on major notice for me as a potential faller to tier 4. Regardless of their record, if their overall quality of play does not tick up or they don’t add reinforcements at the deadline, I would not be at all surprised to find myself moving them down in my next power rankings checkpoint.