TIER 2 INTRO: HIGH CEILING TEAMS WITH EXTREME VARIANCE
Teams in tier 2 possess the elite level talent needed for a championship run, but also possess major question marks that could totally sink their season. These teams are much higher variance than their counterparts in either tier 1 or tier 3 - they have the top level outcome of taking out a tier 1 team or even multiple tier 1 teams in the playoffs, but they could just as easily crash and burn and finish the regular season well behind many of the teams in tier 3.
The regular season for each of these teams is about best positioning themselves for a playoff run. Regular season games are far from meaningless, as all of these teams have something to prove, be it team chemistry or rediscovering a formerly demonstrated caliber of play. However, these teams are also likely to choose preserving health or targeting a specific playoff matchup over chasing each and every regular season win. This is the dark horse tier, the teams where it’s not impossible to squint into the future and see them holding up the Larry O’Brien trophy at season's end.
*For a refresher on the the layout of this season preview series, click here
**All stats courtesy of basketballreference.com or NBA.com unless stated otherwise
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
Team Overview: Back to Basics
In the first year of the LeBron James/Anthony Davis era, a failed pursuit of Kawhi Leonard to be the third star led to the Lakers turning to a depth approach, filling their roster with role players. Guys like Danny Green, Kentavious-Caldwell Pope, Rajon Rondo, Alex Caruso, Markieff Morris and Dwight Howard all made pivotal contributions on the Lakers run to the 2020 championship. After an injury-marred 2021 campaign, the Lakers made the now infamous Russell Westbrook trade, eschewing their 2020 road map in favor of an attempt at a superteam - a catastrophic move that tanked a contending roster and completely wasted a year of LeBron’s ever-dwindling career. Mercifully, at the 2023 trade deadline, VP of Basketball Operations Rob Pelinka and his front office shifted their strategy, getting out from under Westbrook and bringing in a contingent of supporting players to fortify a roster desperately needing depth and stability. This change in team-building approach carried over to this past offseason, when the Lakers locked in some of their younger pieces like Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura and Jarred Vanderbilt. A more rational roster combined with the Lakers underrated ability to develop young talent has the pieces in place to let their superstars eat - the only question is whether health and age have knocked James and Davis out from the tier of players able to carry a champion.
Notable Offseason Move: Russell’s No-Trade Waiver
As mentioned above, the Lakers offseason was about running it back - retaining Reaves and Hachimura in restricted free agency was clearly a priority, and extensions for Davis and Vanderbilt have put significant salary on the Lakers’ books through the middle of the decade. One player that seemed like less of a lock to return was point guard D’Angelo Russell - a lightning bolt for criticism as he struggled throughout the Lakers 2023 playoff run. It seems as though the Lakers kicked the tires on a major point guard upgrade, such as Fred VanVleet or Kyrie Irving, before eventually using their mid level exception to bring in highly regarded back up Gabe Vincent from Miami. Even though Los Angeles circled back to Russell, his 2 year, $36 million contract with a player option in year two seems like a marriage of convenience for both sides. For Russell, it's a sizable pay cut from the $29.25 million AAV he earned on his previous deal, but it’s also likely more than any other team was willing or able to offer him in free agency. For the Lakers, letting Russell walk without a viable way to replace him would not have been ideal, but relying on Russell’s inconsistent scoring efficiency and borderline comical defensive effort is risky as well. Under the new CBA, a player can waive his right to a no-trade clause that was previously guaranteed on a 1+1 deal. Russell agreeing to this waiver allows the Lakers to shop his salary slot at the trade deadline this year in search of a better playoff fit, while Russell can potentially find a new home willing to pay him what he likely feels he’s worth.
One Big Question: Has Father Time Finally Won?
In the 2023 playoffs, LeBron James looked old. Don’t get it twisted - old LeBron James is still a tremendous basketball player with a vast amount of playoff experience, and the flashes of brilliance were still there. One of James’ greatest strengths as his career has gone on is his ability to manage his bursts of energy for the times he needs it most. Who can forget his superhuman 3 game run to close the 2016 finals, his epic game 7 performance in Boston in the 2018 playoffs, or his dominant 4th quarter to put Denver away in the 2020 western conference finals. However, in the 2023 playoffs, it was clear that those superman moments are much shorter and the recovery time between them is much longer. The Lakers could manage their two first round series, firing punishing blows in games 1 and 4 and absorbing losses in games 2 and 5, but when they ran up against a more talented Denver team, they did not have enough in reserve. One could argue that James’ lingering foot injury was the greater source of his relative struggles, and it certainly played a factor. However, injuries have become par for the course with LeBron over the past 3 seasons, and it's hard to see how that reverses course in his age 39 season. Even a diminished James is still a threat, but Anthony Davis and Austin Reaves will have to absorb much more of the load if the Lakers truly have title aspirations.
One Area I’m Sure: As Far as the Defense Can Take Them
Post 2023 trade deadline, the Lakers finished their season on a 18-8 run to roar back into the playoff picture. One of the biggest reasons for that turnaround was their defense - prior to the deadline they ranked 20th in defensive rating (114.3). Post deadline, that rating improved to 110.8, tied for the league’s 2nd best mark over that stretch. While the decline in Anthony Davis’ jump shot has limited his scoring ability relative to his peak years, his 2023 playoff performance proves that he’s still one of the premier defenders in the NBA. At his best, Davis is an absolute brick wall at the rim, capable of not only blocking and altering shots but also intimidating opponents into settling for less efficient floaters and mid-rangers. His length and activity shows up on the perimeter as well, as he creates deflections and speeds up opposing ball handlers, leading to turnovers and allowing the Lakers to get out in transition for easy buckets. Having their defense feed into their offense is one of the big keys for this Lakers squad, as for the umpteenth consecutive year their halfcourt offensive potential will be limited by their lack of elite shooting. In his first year as head coach, Darvin Ham showed a propensity to lean defensive in his lineups, sticking with guys like Jarred Vanderbilt and Troy Brown Jr. far longer than he did a pure shooter like Malik Beasley. With the roster he has, he likely won’t have a choice - defense will be LA’s calling card as long as Davis is healthy.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Max Christie
While there are many reasons to criticize the Lakers as an organization, one area where they have undoubtedly thrived is finding and developing useful players without a ton of draft investment. Established NBA commodities like Kyle Kuzma, Josh Hart, Ivica Zubac and Alex Caruso have all been far better players than their draft slot, and 2023 breakout star Austin Reaves (undrafted in 2021) might end up as the best player of that bunch. The 35th overall pick in the 2022 NBA draft, Max Christie is going to be the latest Laker player development win. Christie saw extremely limited (although decently productive) action in his rookie (age 19) season, but at the 2023 summer league, he was extremely impressive. Christie showed good size (6’6”) and a stronger looking frame, and his off the dribble game appeared lightyears beyond anything he showed as a rookie. He operated as the lead playmaker and shot creator for large stretches of his summer league games, and while he won’t be asked to do that at the NBA level, his natural shooting motion and athleticism give him the tools to be an effective role player on the wing. He may not factor with huge minutes right away, but don’t be surprised when many of the Lakers closing lineups leading up to the playoffs figure Christie alongside James, Davis and Reaves.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 49-33 (FanDuel o/u 46.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 14th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 5th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 8th
LA CLIPPERS
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
Team Overview: The Closing Window
In the summer of 2019, the LA Clippers looked like the NBA’s new superpower. In the span of just a few hours on July 10 of that year, LA traded for Paul George and signed Kawhi Leonard, pairing two all-NBA forwards together on what was an already potent roster. The Clips rolled through the 2019-20 regular season and the first 10 games they played in the 2020 NBA playoffs, at which point they held a 3-1 series lead on the Denver Nuggets in the 2nd round and looked like the title favorites. For the most part, from that point forward, LA has never looked as potent - the Nuggets stormed back to win the series in 7 games, and the Clippers have been unable to keep both George and Leonard healthy for an entire playoffs in any year since. As we now enter 2023-24, the Clippers are a little bit older and have a few new faces, but they are as talented as ever and unquestionably capable of greatness. However, this year does appear to be somewhat of a crossroads for the organization, as both George and Leonard have the ability to opt out of their contracts at seasons’ end and test the open waters of free agency. With the potential end of an era looming, the pressure is on for this to finally be the year that the Clippers convert championship potential into reality. Health of their stars remains the most important ingredient, and it’s fair for fans to be in wait-and-see mode on that front given the history. If the stars do align for Paul and George, watch out - this is a well-coached and veteran-laden roster with a lot to prove.
Notable Offseason Move: No More Blank Checks
Since billionaire owner Steve Ballmer bought the Clippers back in 2014, one of the LA’s biggest competitive advantages has been their willingness to spend above and beyond most other teams in the league. Last season, the Clippers led the league in active payroll and paid an estimated luxury tax bill of over $140 million, second highest in the NBA behind only Golden State (Spotrac). However, for the first time this offseason, Ballmer showed that the money he’s willing to pour into the team does have a limit. Rather than pick up the team option on veteran swingman Eric Gordon’s contract for 2023-24, the Clippers waived him and watched him sign with the rival Suns. Even more telling, despite both players being eligible for extensions, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George remain unsigned beyond 2023-24. With both players being Los Angeles natives and having done their fair share of maneuvering to get to the Clippers, it seems unlikely that they would still be unsigned if the Clippers were willing to hand them maximum extensions. While on the surface, it may seem obvious that handing blank checks to two players in their 30s with extensive injury histories is a bad idea, the fact that there seems to be any negotiating on the team side represents a new tact for LA when it comes to handling their stars. To this point, everything with the Clippers has been catered to George and Leonard, but times may be changing. Maybe each player recognizes they have something to prove and their desire to be in LA for the long haul remains unchanged. On the other hand, if things start to spiral this season and negotiations between team and player start to get frosty, an explosive situation could develop quite quickly.
One Big Question: Is There Another Move Coming?
Ever since James Harden requested a trade out of Philly and named the Clippers as his preferred destination, the NBA world has been waiting for the deal to be completed (Sports Illustrated). As things currently stand, the two sides are at a stalemate, with the Clippers feeling as though upping their offer would only be outbidding themselves, and the Sixers holding firm on their asking price. Ultimately, I still believe a deal will get done, and the Clippers have until the trade deadline to make it happen should they choose. However, it still may be in their best interest to complete the transaction sooner rather than later. Besides the fact that incorporating a ball-dominant star like Harden requires adequate regular season reps, there is also the reality that LA’s players could feel like they are in limbo all year, waiting to be shipped out of town. For a team that has seen its fair share of adversity and turmoil over the past few seasons, letting negativity or uncertainty linger in such a pivotal season feels like a risky proposition. If Harden is acquired, he would bring some much needed passing to this roster, and would also make it much easier for head coach Ty Lue to turn away from Russell Westbrook on nights when the high variance veteran is hurting the team. Between Harden, George and Leonard, the amount of talent LA could put on the court at one time would have the potential to simply overwhelm opponents. However, Harden has also proven a difficult running mate to mesh with in just about every place he has been in his career, and his game has declined significantly over the past few seasons. In a situation that’s already about as volatile as any in the league, adding Harden could be the move that pushes the Clippers over the edge in either direction - positively or negatively.
One Area I’m Sure: Kawhi Leonard is Still Elite
Never one to seek out the spotlight to begin with, Kawhi Leonard’s inability to stay healthy over the past three seasons seems to have pushed him even further off of the national radar. In some respects, the old cliche about “the best ability being availability” rings true, and maybe Leonard should not be categorized with the top players in the sport considering he hasn’t been physically able to consistently produce for his team. I’ll let you come to your own conclusions about how much health should impact a player’s status relative to his peers, but what I do know is this - when Leonard is on the court, he is absolutely still one of the best players in basketball. He can score in isolation, using his incredible strength and balance to methodically work to his spots in the midrange. He functions off the ball as a knockdown three point shooter. He’s probably taken a step back from his defensive player of the year days earlier in his career, but he still creates turnovers and when he’s locked in at the end of games, there might not be a better 1v1 defender on the wing. Ultimately, LA’s roster is talented enough that they can win enough regular season games without asking Kawhi to fully empty the tank. Getting Leonard to game 1 of the playoffs healthy and fresh should still be the Clippers number one regular season priority because if they can, he still has the potential to be the best player in any playoff series he is in. Through all the turmoil of recent years, one thing has never changed for LA - Kawhi Leonard is the force that holds open their championship window.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Kenyon Martin Jr.
From 2019-2020 through 2020-21, a two season span in which the Clippers finished both years with league’s 2nd best net rating, LA’s dearth of 3&D wing options was undoubtedly their strength. In a league where contenders were consistently finding themselves starved for quality two-way play, the Clippers had so many viable options in their rotation that they had periods of supreme effectiveness even without their stars - the prime example being the 2021 playoffs, when they ran the top seeded Utah Jazz off the floor in the second round despite Kawhi Leonard missing the final two games of the series due to injury. However, over the past two seasons, critical pieces for that strategy such as forwards Marcus Morris and Robert Covington have largely aged out of effectiveness, and the Clippers lineup versatility has wilted. Forced into a more traditional team build where they have played more with a non-shooting center on the court, the elite floor spacing and disruptive defense that their 5 out on offense, switch everything on defense lineups used to bring have been harder to come by. Quietly, LA made a move to re-fortify that forward depth this past summer when they acquired Kenyon Martin Jr. from the Rockets. Martin Jr. has not yet proven himself to be that reliable playoff presence, but the package he has shown in his first three NBA seasons hints at a highly impactful role player. Martin Jr. is a ridiculous athlete, something this Clippers roster is otherwise sorely lacking, living well above the rim as a finisher and showcasing an elite ability to fill the lanes in transition. He has the physical skill set to be a multi-positional defender across the forward line, and although it’s yet to actualize so far in his career, there’s a chance he could become a weapon in passing lanes and as a secondary rim protector. Martin Jr. needs to improve as a shooter as well, but his form is promising and he should get far cleaner looks playing next to Paul George and Kawhi Leonard than he ever did in Houston. If Martin Jr. can continue on his current development curve and buy in to making winning basketball plays in LA, he could provide a huge boost to this Clippers roster.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 45-37 (FanDuel o/u 45.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 9th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 18th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 13th
MIAMI HEAT
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
Team Overview: I Guess We’re Running it Back
As a rule, saying “yeah but” when a team makes a run to the finals is one of my least favorite NBA discourses to engage in. I also strongly believe that to a point, playoff results are far more important and far more indicative of a team’s true ceiling than what we see in the regular season - it’s the reason why this preview series is tiered by championship potential rather than just a straight list of what I think each team’s win/loss projection will be. With all that being said, it does need to also be mentioned - this team that was 3 wins away from the title last year was also one loss away from not making it out of the play-in, and had a regular season net rating of -0.5 (21st out of 30). More consistently than any other NBA team over the past 5 years or so, the Heat have defied logic, and they deserve the full benefit of the doubt. Their player development system and organizational culture is lauded in league circles. They have a HOF team president in Pat Riley, a future hall of fame head coach in Erik Spoelstra, and a top 5-10 player in the league in Jimmy Butler. It’s all undeniably true, but on paper, this team was lucky to get to 44 wins last season and the roster entering 2023-24 got worse. I have no doubts that this team will be an absolute chore to play against and is a matchup that the top teams in the East will be actively avoiding come playoff time. But as Butler’s prime winds down and attrition continues to take its toll on the roster, Miami feels a move for a secondary star away from greatness - a frustrating spot to be for a team that undoubtedly has all the intangibles necessary to launch themselves into tier 1.
Notable Offseason Move: The Trades Not Made
In Pat Riley’s era as lead decision maker in Miami, it’s pretty rare to see him and his front office be outmaneuvered. This is the man that helped orchestrate the “big 3” Heat era, and poached Butler from Philadelphia for relative pennies on the dollar. When it became clear this offseason that a star guard in Bradley Beal was available in trade, and then shortly after that a superstar guard in Damian Lillard, Miami felt inevitable. When the Heat sat out of the Beal sweepstakes, reportedly due to their preference for Lillard, it made logical sense. When Lillard and his agent Aaron Goodwin both publicly and privately broadcasted Lillard’s preference to end up with the Heat, it felt like a done deal. But it never came to pass - Portland refused to be backed into a corner by Lillard, and perhaps partially due to some ill-will for how he and the Heat handled the situation, shipped him to Milwaukee instead. Heat fans might cry foul play for how it ended up, but ultimately Portland won the stand-off because they found a better offer, getting creative to add multiple teams and multiple players to the mix, something Miami was unable or unwilling to do. As a result, the Heat are left with an extremely underwhelming offseason - not only did they not make the star upgrade they were aiming for, but they also lost two starters from their Eastern conference champion team last season in Max Strus and Gabe Vincent. A different trade could always be coming, but a Lillard-Butler pairing not coming to pass is a true gut punch of a missed opportunity for everyone involved with the Heat.
One Big Question: Who is The Next Player Development Win?
One major reason why on-paper preseason analysis of the Heat has consistently proven faulty is because of how well they have churned out plus performance from unlikely places. The previously mentioned Strus and Vincent? Both undrafted players whom the Heat initially brought into their system on two-way contracts. Same story for Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson, who both project as key rotation pieces for the ‘23-24 team. Even in the draft, 1st round picks like Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo have outplayed their draft slots (13th and 14th, respectively). The Heat do a great job with skill development, and they clearly target players who are relentless workers and extremely mentally tough. “Heat Culture” has broken a player or two, but if you can make it through the rigors, there’s a pretty good chance you will be a better player for it in the end. In addition, no coach in the league is better than Spoelstra at maximizing the strengths of his personnel and minimizing the weaknesses. He’s willing to bend his system on both ends of the court to make sure that players are always put in the best possible positions to succeed, and he also excels at finding the right lineup combinations to allow for maximum on-court chemistry. It’s difficult to pinpoint who the next diamond in the rough to come out of Miami will be, but the odds are that somebody new will break out in 2023-24. The Heat are banking on it in order for this team to be as competitive as they plan on it being.
One Area I’m Sure: You Can Never Count Out Spo and Jimmy
On paper, this team has no business being included in tier 2. However, at this point I’ve just seen too many head-scratching Miami playoff wins to fully count this team out. Erik Spoelstra is the NBA’s best coach, consistently getting the absolute most out of every inch of his roster. The Heat also have phenomenal player development, seemingly finding valuable rotation members off the scrap heap each and every year. Of course, it’s not all unheralded underdogs that account for Miami’s success - they have an ace in the hole in the form of Jimmy Butler. Year in and year out, Butler has taken over playoff series, outplaying stars thought to be above him in the NBA pecking order. Jimmy’s mental warfare is beautiful to watch, as he lives in the heads of his opponents and his timely steals and backbreaking jumpers are inescapable. As long as Butler is healthy and Spoelstra is patrolling the sideline, Miami is a matchup that no Eastern Conference team wants to see in the playoffs. That combination deserves every benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Jaime Jaquez
If you watched any of Jaime Jaquez’s stellar college career at UCLA over the past 4 years, it would have come as no surprise to you when it was the Miami Heat that called his name last June at the 2023 draft. Jaquez had a decorated college career, helping lead the Bruins to the final four in his sophomore year and winning the Pac-12 conference player of the year as a senior. However, if you just study his profile, it’s not entirely clear how he’s so effective. He’s not the tallest player on the wing at 6’6”, and he’s just an average athlete. He’s inconsistent at best as an outside jump shooter, and he doesn’t have the vertical pop to consistently play above the rim. On the other hand, when you turn on the games, it’s hard not to fall in love. Jaquez plays incredibly hard and he gets the most out of every inch of his rugged frame. He rebounds ferociously on both ends. He’s always on the floor taking a charge or diving after a loose ball. He’s an underrated passer and he plays pretty well off-ball as a cutter as well. He’s tailor-made to fit in with the Heat, and I have no doubts that he’ll step right into a rotation role on the wing as soon as the season gets underway. Jaquez’s ultimate ceiling is the biggest question mark around him, as he will turn 23 during his rookie year and as noted, does not have overwhelming physical traits. But the Heat don’t need him to be a star as a rookie, and if there’s any place that can bring the best out of him over the course of his career, it’s Miami.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 44-38 (FanDuel o/u 44.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 18th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 10th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 15th
DALLAS MAVERICKS
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
Team Overview: Tick Tock
When you draft a truly generational talent, it’s the greatest gift that can be bestowed upon an NBA team. The power of one player can swing the fortunes of a franchise, as it did in Dallas, where the darkness of life without Dirk Nowitzki turned into the light of Luka Doncic. However, with great power comes great responsibility, and the pressure of building a winner around such a player is vast and often immediate. A team has the superstar’s first two contracts - their rookie deal and the maximum extension they will invariably sign - to convince said player to commit to the franchise long term. Dallas’ first attempt was to pair Doncic with Kristaps Porzingis, a move that flamed out due to Porzingis’ poor health, lack of development, and lack of chemistry with Luka. In 2022, a midseason trade of Porzingis, and a breakout from fellow Mavericks draftee Jalen Brunson, sparked a promising playoff run - Brunson stepped in for an injured Luka in a first round defeat of Utah, and Doncic dominated the top seeded Phoenix Suns in a shocking upset to propel the Mavs to the conference finals. However, in the 2022 offseason, Brunson bolted for New York, partly due to Mavericks mistakes like lowballing their first extension offer, and partly due to reasons beyond their control, like Brunson’s father Rick being on the Knicks’ coaching staff. In 2022-23, with a mediocre supporting cast and a record hovering around .500, Doncic’s discontent started to trickle into the media and Dallas got desperate, swinging a big trade for embattled star guard Kyrie Irving. The trade for Irving gutted the roster even further, and the season ended in disaster, as the Mavericks fell so far down the standings that they opted to rest their stars in the season’s final game and secure draft positioning rather than give themselves a chance to make the play-in tournament. If Dallas’ decision makers were feeling the heat last year, this year the flames are white hot - another failed season and the conversation will start to be around when and where to trade Doncic so he doesn’t walk in free agency for nothing.
Notable Offseason Move: That Sweet Agent Connection
The easy choice here is Irving re-signing in Dallas, but that always felt like a give-in due to a lack of realistic suitors and the asset cost the Mavs had forfeited to acquire him in the first place. Instead, let’s focus on a role player that I believe fits perfectly next to their stars and will re-emerge as a key playoff piece in 2024 - forward Grant Williams. A former first round pick of the Celtics, Williams has improved every season of his career and has stood tall in some massive moments, such as hitting 7 3s in a game 7 win over Milwaukee in the 2022 playoffs. Thus, it was strange when he saw inconsistent playing time during Boston’s 2023 playoff run, which led to speculation that he might not be brought back as a restricted free agent. Perhaps thanks to a shared agent between Williams and Doncic (Bill Duffy), Dallas emerged as a sign and trade candidate and Williams reportedly made the Mavericks his preferred destination. Williams isn’t a supreme athlete and he won’t bring any shot creation to the table, but he’s a reliable catch and shoot threat with a high basketball IQ. He’s physical enough to guard both 4s and 5s and he’ll rarely be out of position on the defensive end. He’ll also bring a level of toughness and selflessness that is needed for playoff success, doing the dirty work on the back end while Doncic and Irving playmake.
One Big Question: Vibe Check
Perhaps more so than any other team in the league, the Mavericks are in need of a fast start this season. After the abject disaster that was 2022-23, Dallas was able to configure a fairly strong summer considering the resources they had available. Irving was retained on a reasonable deal, Grant Williams was a nice acquisition, and they bought low on a reclamation project in center Richaun Holmes, picking up an extra 1st round pick in the process. However, no massive move to drastically improve the team was made, and with a player like Luka Doncic, the expectations will be high. If Dallas struggles out of the gate, the negative feelings that permeated both the fan base and the locker room a season ago could quickly return. More so than other teams around the league, negativity in Dallas really has the potential to snowball. For all his on-court greatness, Irving is about as flaky of a star athlete as we’ve seen in the 21st century. Now that he’s been paid, he could up and walk out on this team even in the best of times, let alone the worst. Additionally, Doncic is not one to stay silent with his frustrations either. While nowhere near the level of Irving’s off-court shenanigans, one of Luka’s greatest weaknesses is his on-court body language. He has finished top 3 in the league in technical fouls in each of the past three seasons, and his frustration with teammates and coaches is rarely hidden, too commonly impacting his effort level on a play-to-play basis. I strongly believe that Dallas has the talent to really make a run in the West this year, but I also would not be surprised if they completely flame out and miss the playoffs. How they begin the year on the court and how the team is coalescing off the court may set their course for the entire season.
One Area I’m Sure: Points Will be Scored
Throughout his career, Luka Doncic has shown that as long as he has adequate shooting and floor spacing around him, he can carry an offense to competence. Add in a second dynamic scoring talent like Kyrie Irving, and this Dallas attack will be one of the most potent in the league. For all his off-court selfishness, Irving has proven time and again to be extremely effective operating off the ball throughout his stints playing alongside talents like LeBron James, Kevin Durant and James Harden. With Doncic collapsing defenses, kick outs to Irving will allow him to penetrate against units scrambling to rotate back into position, a nightmare when trying to defend a three level scorer of Irving’s caliber. Alternatively, having Irving will take the pressure off of Doncic to initiate every time down the court, leaving him fresher for the close of games and allowing him to catch and attack from different positions on the court. Dallas’ support players have their flaws, but nearly all are either potent 3pt. shooters or lob threats, which will bend defenses away from the Mavs stars. On the other hand, it’s also hard to see how this Dallas roster gets a lot of stops. Grant Williams and Maxi Kleber are versatile and valuable defensive bigs, but neither offers a ton in the way of rim protection and Dallas’ centers range from unproven (rookie Dereck Lively) to declining (Dwight Powell, Richaun Holmes). Dallas also lacks a true wing stopper, and their guards outside of Dante Exum and Josh Green all project as below-average or worse on the defensive end. The Mavs figure to find themselves in a lot of shootouts this year - a battle they’re capable of winning more often than not in the regular season but one that may prove to be their death sentence once the playoffs start.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Jaden Hardy
The #4 ranked recruit by 24/7 sports in the high school class of 2021, Jaden Hardy once looked like a lock to be a lottery pick. However, after he forewent college for the G-League and struggled massively while playing for G-League Ignite, it was actually considered by some to be a reach when Dallas traded up to select him with the 37th pick in the 2022 draft. After a stellar rookie season, it certainly appears as though it might have been premature to write Hardy off. Out of the rotation to begin the season, Hardy played his way into head coach Jason Kidd’s circle of trust right around the midway point of the year and was one of the few bright spots for the Mavs in a disastrous close to the season. Hardy is an athletic combo guard, capable of handling on-ball reps and scoring on the ball but also a potent enough shooter to thrive off the ball as well. He profiles as a scoring 6th man type, and should bring a ton of offensive juice to Dallas’ second unit, especially on nights when Doncic or Irving are out of the lineup. There are still areas he needs work - notably his shot selection and defense - in order for him to be a true contributor deep into the playoffs. However, he just turned 21 in July and has the physical profile to at least be competent on the defensive end. Even if his game stays static, he’ll be a young player who can put up points in bunches, a valuable trade chip for a win-now team without much in the way of assets otherwise.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 45-37 (FanDuel o/u 43.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 6th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 20th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 11th