2024 Draft Prospect Rankings: Bigs
The 2024 NBA draft is rapidly approaching, which means it’s time to begin unveiling my draft ranks. In the next week, I’ll finish publishing my positional rankings, culminating in a final overall big board in mid to late June. Below you’ll find the fourth installment in the series: Bigs. I define this position group as players who can either toggle back and forth between the power forward and center position, or are going to exclusively play the four. Ideally, a modern big can provide adequate levels of both rim protection and floor spacing, but they don’t necessarily have to be the primary provider of either in most lineups. If a big doesn’t provide either of those things, he probably has to be very good at one of them, or provide elite production elsewhere, such as on the glass, or as a highly versatile defensive chess piece.
*Link to On-Ball Guard Prospect Rankings* *Link to On-Ball Guard Prospect Write-Ups*
*Link to Wing Guard Prospect Rankings/Write-Ups*
*Link to Wing Forward Prospect Rankings* *Link to Wing Forward Prospect Write-Ups*
A couple notes to bear in mind:
These rankings are strictly film and athletic testing based, as I don’t have insight into medical information or character
I’ve sorted the players into tiers, and as with my team power rankings, players within the same tier are somewhat interchangeable
“Game Reminds Me Of” is NOT a direct comparison: It simply means I see similarities to a current player in style of play and/or movement profile on the court
Any testing or height/wingspan info I cite is from the NBA combine data
Finally, for each player I have listed my projection for their eventual NBA role, as well as my perception of their potential ceiling. Here are those role definitions, as well as a few examples of where I would slot current players based on their 2023-24 production.
2023-24 Examples of the Projected Roles:
All-NBA: Capable of being the best player on a high-level playoff team or championship contender
i.e. Giannis Antetokounmpo
All-Star: A clear star player, probably best suited as a second option on a championship team
i.e. Zion Williamson, Lauri Markkanen
Fringe All-Star: Capable of being a lead offensive engine at times, but likely has a distinct weakness or two and lacks consistent all-star production
i.e. Julius Randle
Priority Starter: A clear value additive starter, but best suited as a complementary player on a high-level playoff team
i.e. Evan Mobley, Draymond Green
Quality Starter: Capable of starting and closing games, agnostic of opponent
i.e Al Horford, John Collins
High End Reserve: Impact bench piece, capable of starting in a pinch, or closing if the matchup dictates
i.e. Bobby Portis, Kelly Olynyk
Quality Reserve: Deserving of bench minutes on a night-to-night basis, including playoff games
i.e. Grant Williams, Maxi Kleber
Rotational Reserve: Clear NBA players, useful depth for the regular season but not a guarantee to hold a rotation spot come playoff time
i.e. Chimezie Metu, Chris Boucher
G-League/2-Way: Fringe NBA players, candidates to fill out the final few spots on a roster
i.e. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Darius Bazley
TIER 1:
Alexandre Sarr / Perth Wildcats (Australia/New Zealand)
Height/Wingspan: 7’1” / 7’4”
Rookie Season Age: 19
Player Type: High Upside Developmental Project
Game Reminds Me Of: Thon Maker / Jonathan Isaac / Jabari Smith Jr.
A native Frenchman, Sarr spent time with both Real Madrid (Spain) and Overtime Elite (US) before playing this past season in Australia’s NBL. Sarr came off the bench for Perth and averaged just 18 minutes per game, but his combination of skill and size makes him an intriguing developmental prospect, and a legitimate candidate to be selected #1 overall.
With a 7’4 wingspan and a 9’2” standing reach, Sarr has prototypical NBA center measurements. However, he looks more comfortable to me on the offensive end when he’s playing the four, as the best parts of his game come when he’s faced up to the basket. Sarr isn’t a true isolation creator off the dribble, but he’s got a better handle than most players his size, and he looks very fluid getting to his mid-range jumper. He covers a lot of space in a short amount of time due to his stride length, and if he can develop a euro-step and better touch around the basket, he could be a very imposing finisher off the drive, and in transition. Sarr is also an above-average passer when he’s going downhill, with the vision to find shooters, and the creativity to hit open teammates from a variety of angles.
Sarr’s outside shooting numbers aren’t particularly impressive (27.6% 3FG on 3.9 attempts per 36 minutes), and his release is both off to the side of his head and a bit slow. However, he’s confident off the catch, and his mid-range success tells me that he should become a solid three-point shooter in the NBA, if not a true weapon.
My biggest worry for Sarr on the offensive end is that there is a certain awkwardness to his movement profile that leaves me doubtful of his viability as a center, should his skill level not translate. He plays very upright, and his feet are somewhat heavy. He’s not a quick leaper off two feet, and despite his physique, he’s not a natural roll man or lob catcher around the rim. His hands can be a bit clunky, and while it’s possible that he just needs more reps and time to grow into his body, the fluidity of a top-end NBA center isn’t there at the moment.
Defensively is where Sarr is most likely to make his biggest impact, especially early in his career. He has a great motor, and his activity level both on and off the ball is impressive. Sarr’s length creates problems for opposing players around the rim, and his blocked shot production (3.1 blocks per 36 minutes) from his time in Australia jumps off the page. Similarly to the offensive end, Sarr looks a bit more comfortable as a secondary rim protector than the primary big in drop coverage against the pick and roll, but I’m confident he can grow into that with more repetitions. Additionally, Sarr has flashed an ability to switch out onto the perimeter and contain smaller players. While he’s not an elite lateral athlete, his size and recovery ability affords him a certain margin for error, to where he can get beat by half a step and still affect the play with ease.
While I don’t quite see the shot creation tools nor elite enough athleticism to make Sarr a superstar, his theoretical skillset as a highly versatile defensive big who can also space the floor on the offensive end is so valuable that he’s certainly worthy of taking a shot on. I worry that if the shooting and face-up ability doesn’t fully translate, Sarr might not have the safe floor of a traditional roll man/lob catcher/offensive rebounder, which could leave him as a man without a home on the offensive end. Even if he does prove to be adequate offensively at the four, the true impact of his value is best felt if can play center. However, that’s not enough of a concern for me to not classify Sarr as a priority prospect, as the potential for what he could bring, if it all comes together, is immensely useful to the modern NBA team.
Projected NBA Role: Priority Starter
NBA Upside: Fringe All-Star
TIER 2:
2. Tidjane Salaun / Cholet Basket (France)
Height/Wingspan: 6’9” / 7’1”
Rookie Season Age: 19
Player Type: Face Up Floor Spacer / Straight Line Driver / High-Upside Help Defender
Game Reminds Me Of: Jeff Green / Robert Covington / Trey Lyles
Salaun has somewhat of a throwback stretch forward skillset, as he’s got solid size, and great length for the power forward position. While his efficiency in France this past season wasn’t great (31.6% 3FG), Salaun is an aggressive three-point shooter (6.8 attempts per 36 minutes) who projects to have more success at the next level. His release is a little slow, as he shoots a set shot, but he has very repeatable mechanics, and his height allows him to go unbothered by smaller defenders. Salaun is a capable right-handed driver against closeouts, and an above-average cutter when he’s off the ball. However, he’s not a creator off the dribble, he struggles to create lateral separation, and he showcased very little from the mid-range outside of the occasional pull-up jumper. Salaun is a willing ball-mover on the perimeter, and he makes some nice interior passes off his drives, but he definitely has a tendency to leave his feet without a clear plan, leading to a few too many turnovers.
Defensively, Salaun plays hard, and I believe he has the versatility to slide up and down the positional spectrum. His lateral movement on the ball is questionable and he’s not an explosive leaper (32-inch max vertical jump), but Salaun has solid instincts as an off-ball defender. His length shows up most clearly in his ability to be disruptive in passing lanes (1.7 steals per 36 minutes), but he has a few flashes on film as a secondary rim protector as well. It may take Salaun a year or two of development in the background to make an NBA impact, but the fully-formed version of him as a player could be a catch-and-shoot weapon who is also a multi-positional help defender.
Projected NBA Role: Quality Starter
NBA Upside: Priority Starter
3. DaRon Holmes II / Dayton
Height/Wingspan: 6’10” / 7’1”
Rookie Season Age: 22
Player Type: Rangy Rim Protector / Versatile Ball Screen Partner
Game Reminds Me Of: Jalen Smith / Al Horford / Myles Turner
A starter for all three of his college seasons at Dayton, Holmes was one of the best players in the country in ‘23-24, being named a 2nd-Team All American as well as Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year in the Atlantic-10.
On the offensive end, Holmes is highly skilled and very well-rounded. He expanded his range beyond the arc as a Junior (38.6% 3FG on 2.8 3PA per 36 minutes), and while his jumper is a little mechanical, he has good balance and a repeatable motion that translates well off the catch. He can put the ball on the floor and attack closeouts, as he has a very nice spin move, and enough skill to change direction quickly when the defense rotates to his drive. His use of body positioning is advanced, as he understands when to time his duck-ins and post-ups, and he consistently sealed off defenders attempting to front him in the post for easy layups. He sets solid screens, and makes good reads as both a roller to the basket and a popper for his jump shot. He’s not an explosive vertical athlete who will excel as a lob catcher, but he has good balance and footwork as a finisher, and he sees the floor very well out of the short roll, and from the post. Holmes also plays with a ferocious spirit and energy, which helps him in transition, where he’s excellent at beating the defense up the court as a rim runner.
Defensively, Holmes was a highly productive shot blocker in college (2.3 blocks per 36 minutes) who has a good understanding of angles and timing. He has above-average instincts as a help defender, and he’s willing to put his body on the line and contest at the rim. With just a 34-inch max vertical leap and a 9’0” standing reach, Holmes doesn’t have elite traits for an NBA center, and his slight frame (236 lbs.) also puts a ceiling on how much he can do in the post. However, he may be able to counteract his physical limitations at the basket with his movement skills on the perimeter. He moves laterally with ease, plays in a stance on-ball against smaller ball handlers, and is excellent at contesting jump shooters without fouling.
I’m a big fan of Holmes, as not only is he an intelligent, skilled and productive player, but he also brings a unique and impactful blend of versatility on both ends of the court. My only concern is that his physical limitations negate his defensive impact in the NBA in a way that they didn’t in the A-10, but I largely trust Holmes to find a way to mitigate those concerns, even if it means spending most of his time at the four rather than the five.
Projected NBA Role: High-End Reserve
NBA Upside: Priority Starter
4. Tyler Smith / G-League Ignite
Height/Wingspan: 6’10” / 7’1”
Rookie Season Age: 20
Player Type: Pick & Pop Threat / Mid-Post Scorer
Game Reminds Me Of: Bobby Portis / P.J. Washington / Christian Wood
Although he didn’t receive nearly as much pre-season hype as G-League Ignite teammates Ron Holland and Matas Buzelis, Smith was arguably the most productive offensive player of the three, averaging 22.3 points per 36 minutes while posting 61.2% true shooting on 24.6% usage.
Smith is a skilled lefty scorer, with very fluid shooting mechanics for a player his size. He’s highly effective as a pick-and-pop jump shooter, both from the mid-range and beyond the three-point line. He can also create space for his shot off the dribble, particularly when facing up from the mid-post against a smaller defender. He struggles a bit more with his back to the basket, as he’s not particularly strong, nor does he have great footwork in the post. Given his profile as an offensive player, he’ll likely have to unlock that ability to mash smaller defenders from the paint, in order to truly maximize his efficiency.
On the defensive end, Smith displays active hands on the perimeter, can disrupt opposing ball handlers with length, and has pretty good timing in passing lanes. He elevates well off two feet, but he needs a solid runway to load up, and he’s not a proactive or alert off-ball defender. He also needs to get stronger defending the post and as a rebounder: I don’t expect Smith to be an above-average defender on the interior, especially early in his career. He moves his feet decently well on the perimeter and his length is an asset, but he’s probably going to struggle in pure isolation against the quickest opponents. Smith’s ability to at least hold his own against bigger wings and stretchier centers will probably determine his ultimate ceiling, as I expect him to be an asset on the offensive end, but his defensive limitations may keep him in a bench role long term.
Projected NBA Role: High-End Reserve
NBA Upside: Quality Starter
TIER 3:
5. Jonathan Mogbo / San Francisco
Height/Wingspan: 6’7” / 7’2”
Rookie Season Age: 23
Player Type: High-Motor Rebounder / Explosive Finisher / High-Post Facilitator
Game Reminds Me Of: Robert Williams III / Precious Achiuwa / Kenneth Faried
Mogbo had a heck of a journey through his four years in school, spending time at two different JUCO’s before transferring to Missouri State, and then San Francisco for his senior season in ‘23-24. Standing just 6’7”, and with zero three-point makes in his college career, Mogbo is an outlier, but he brings enough versatility and dynamism with the rest of his profile that he just might make it work in the NBA.
Mogbo played both the four and the five for USF, and he showed a feel for certain parts of both positions. He’s a natural as a roll man, with good touch around the rim, a wide catch radius, and the ability to elevate quickly off two feet. He also has plus footwork and balance out of the post, and while he’s probably not going to be backing down NBA centers, he should be able to attack mismatches against smaller defenders. He’s an excellent passer on the interior and from the high post, and San Francisco often ran their offense through him. He has some ability to face up and attack off the dribble to his right hand, but he’s at his best when he can work from the elbows and free-throw line extended as a facilitator.
Defensively, Mogbo has a chance to be an impact piece. He’s an excellent rebounder on both ends of the court, and he plays with a tremendous motor. He has solid timing and instincts as a shot blocker, and while he’s short, his 7’2” wingspan and 37.5-inch max vertical help him cover ground. However, where he really shines is his switchability and versatility on the perimeter. He’s a menace in passing lanes (2 steals per 36 minutes), and he gets low in a stance and moves his feet well laterally. Mogbo’s not going to fit on every roster due to his lack of shooting, but when paired next to a floor-spacing center, or as a small-ball five who can switch onto opposing ball handlers, he could be a valuable piece.
Projected NBA Role: Quality Reserve
NBA Upside: High-End Reserve
6. Kyle Filipowski / Duke
Height/Wingspan: 7’0” / 6’10”
Rookie Season Age: 21
Player Type: Stretch Tweener / Skilled Passer
Game Reminds Me Of: Dario Saric / Kelly Olynyk
Although he was being discussed as a possible first-round pick in the 2023 draft, Filipowski chose to return to Duke for his Sophomore season, and he improved his production across the board. Athleticism and defensive fit are significant question marks for Filipowski, but he’s a skilled player who does a lot of things well on the basketball court.
Filipowski has a strong frame, and he’s comfortable working over both shoulders from the post. He’s not able to elevate and play above the rim with consistency, but he has good footwork and plays with above-average balance. He does have a quick first step as a driver, but he really struggles to finish over length and athleticism at the basket, which limits his effectiveness. Even without the drive game, Filipowski should be effective as a spot-up shooter and a pick-and-pop big. He has clean, fluid mechanics and is very comfortable shooting threes from above the break, although it is a little concerning that he only shot 31.4% from three and 71.8% from the FT line for his college career. He definitely looks like a better shooter than that on film, and he will absolutely need that skill to translate in order to be an effective pro.
On the defensive end, Filipowski is generally in the right spots off the ball, and he has good instincts as a help defender and rim protector. However, with his negative wingspan and lack of vertical explosion (32.5-inch max leap), he may have difficulty affecting shots at the basket against NBA athletes. He mostly played as a traditional drop-coverage center at Duke, but I sincerely doubt that an NBA team is going to be able to field a competent defense with him in that role. Thankfully for Filipowski, he’s not completely hopeless moving his feet in isolation. He’s not going to be a plus defending more perimeter-oriented fours, but I think he’ll be able to survive against most power forwards, particularly against bench units, or if/when his shooting ability allows his team to play him next to a rim-protecting center.
Projected NBA Role: Quality Reserve
NBA Upside: High-End Reserve
7. Bobi Klintman / Cairns Taipans (Australia/New Zealand)
Height/Wingspan: 6’10” / 6’11”
Rookie Season Age: 21
Player Type: Stretch Four / Face-Up Driver / Transition Finisher
Game Reminds Me Of: Rui Hachimura / Jalen Johnson
A Swedish native who actually spent the ‘22-23 season at Wake Forest before taking his talents to the NBL, Klintman is raw, but offers an intriguing blend of size and skill.
Klintman aggressively hunted his three-ball for Cairns, averaging nearly 6 attempts per 36 minutes this past season. His release is a little slow, but he generally plays with good balance, and his mechanics appear repeatable. While he’s not an explosive vertical athlete, he runs the floor well in transition, and has enough ball handling chops to be a grab-and-go fast break initiator. He’ll attack off the dribble in the half-court as well, and he has some flashy playmaking instincts, but he’s definitely prone to wildness and poor decision making (2.9 turnovers per 36 minutes compared to just 1.5 assists). Klintman’s most effective offense at this point in his career probably comes off his work as a cutter, as he has a really nice feel for timing his runs to the basket, and catching the defense napping.
Klintman works hard as a perimeter defender, and while his assertiveness results in some impressive production (1.7 stls. per 36 minutes), he definitely has a tendency to overextend himself (4.5 fouls per 36 minutes). He can also be caught out of position chasing steals and blocks when he’s away from the ball. While he’s a decent rebounder and pretty physical on the interior, his physical limitations (32.5-inch max vertical, 8’10” standing reach) probably dictate that he’s going to be a one-position defender at the four in the NBA.
Projected NBA Role: Quality Reserve
NBA Upside: High-End Reserve
8. Ryan Dunn / Virginia
Height/Wingspan: 6’7” / 7’1”
Rookie Season Age: 21
Player Type: Multi-Positional Impact Defender
Game Reminds Me Of: Peyton Watson / Andre Roberson
I normally start these write-ups with the offensive outlook before I transition to the other side of the ball, but with Dunn, defense has to be the first talking point. His production at Virginia (3.0 blocks per 36 minutes, 1.7 steals) was elite, and his combination of length and athleticism makes him one of the top defensive prospects in the class.
Dunn plays extremely hard on the defensive end, and he has big-time recovery and secondary rim protection instincts. His film is littered with highlight-reel blocks where he comes flying in from the perimeter to send shots into the stands. He also moves his feet well on the perimeter and should be an on-ball asset in isolation. However, I don’t love his screen-navigation instincts, which is why I think he’ll be better defending frontcourt players than guards. He also battles well in the post, as he’s strong, and his length helps make up for his relative lack of height.
Offense is where things get dicey for Dunn, as he’s nowhere near skilled enough to be anything but a liability in the NBA, at least early in his career. He’s pretty effective in transition when he can use his speed and lob-catching ability, and he has a few flashes on film as a cutter and a roll man. Other than that, his game is pretty limited, as he’s got almost zero on-ball ability, and he really struggles as a shooter (career 23.5% 3FG, 52.5% FT). While his release isn’t completely broken, he tends to shuffle his feet on the catch, which leads to a lot of inconsistency in his ball flight. He also has difficulty making quick ball-movement decisions, and his tendency to catch and hold, bringing the offense to a screeching halt, is almost more concerning than his lack of shot-making.
Projected NBA Role: Rotational Reserve
NBA Upside: High-End Reserve
TIER 4:
9. Harrison Ingram / North Carolina
Height/Wingspan: 6’6” / 7’0”
Rookie Season Age: 22
Player Type: High-IQ Support Piece / Switchable Defender
Game Reminds Me Of: Grant Williams / David Roddy
Ingram is a heady, pesky player who competes with a contagious energy that made him a crucial glue guy this past season at UNC. He has enough skill to put the ball on the floor and attack closeouts, but he’s at his best when he can work his way into the post. He’s skilled and physical with his back to the basket, and he can bury smaller defenders when he has a mismatch. Ingram also has a nice feel as an interior passer, and he’s a good post-entry player, especially from the elbows. He took a massive leap from beyond the arc this past season: After shooting 31.6% across his first two college seasons, he made 38.5% of his threes as a Junior. Ingram’s form is a little mechanical and I don’t think it will translate off the dribble or on the move, but he’s aggressive and looks comfortable off the catch, which will be critical if he’s going to stick in the NBA.
On the defensive end, it’s tough to tell whether Ingram is a versatile frontcourt piece who can adequately hang at multiple positions, or a man without a home who’s going to struggle wherever he’s placed. I tend to lean more towards the former, but there’s definitely a chance that he’s too slow for the perimeter, and too small to bang in the paint. I like his activity level and length on the ball, but he can get caught out of position off the ball, and with a 35-inch vertical and a 8’6” standing reach, he’s probably not going to make much of an impact as a rim protector. On the plus side, Ingram is an excellent rebounder, and his strong frame should allow him to avoid getting outmuscled in the post.
Projected NBA Role: Rotational Reserve
NBA Upside: Quality Reserve
10. Keshad Johnson / Arizona
Height/Wingspan: 6’7” / 6’10”
Rookie Season Age: 23
Player Type: Transition Finisher / Above-The-Rim Athlete
Game Reminds Me Of: Brandon Clarke
After four years at San Diego State, Johnson transferred to Arizona for his super Senior season, and really improved his outside shooting, which gives him a much better outlook for the pros. Although his mechanics are a bit awkward and his shot is a bit of a line drive, he connected on 38.7% of his threes at Arizona, and I think he has a chance to be a competent catch-and-shoot player from the corners. If that proves to be correct, Johnson could be a nice reserve big because he’s an explosive leaper (42-inch vertical) and above-average finisher around the basket. He has a good sense of timing and good hands as a roll man, and he elevates way above the rim for lobs when he has space to load up off two feet. He’s an excellent rim runner in transition, and that motor also translates to the offensive glass, where he consistently competes.
Johnson brings intensity and vertical athleticism to the defensive end, but he’s not a particularly fluid lateral mover. His 8’7” standing reach dictates that he either needs to be able to play the four full time, or be very effective switching out onto the perimeter, but I have my doubts about both. He struggles with even moderately quick guards, often lunging out onto his toes and losing his balance. He’s not going to look silly against bigger wings in isolation, but I wouldn’t consider him a primary perimeter defender by any means.
Projected NBA Role: G-League/2-Way
NBA Upside: Rotational Reserve