2024 Draft Prospect Rankings: Wing Guards
The 2024 NBA draft is rapidly approaching, which means it’s time to begin unveiling my draft ranks. Over the course of the next month, I’ll be releasing rankings by position, culminating in a final overall big board in mid to late June. Below you’ll find the second installment in the series: Wing Guards. I define this position group as players who are going to spend the majority of their time on the court as shooting guards, with the versatility to slide down to small forward as well. Some of these guys will be able to defend the 1 through the 3, but ideally, all are able to defend at least two positions, be that both guard spots or both of the smaller wing positions.
*Link to On-Ball Guard Prospect Rankings* *Link to On-Ball Guard Prospect Write-Ups*
A couple notes to bear in mind:
These rankings are strictly film and athletic testing based, as I don’t have insight into medical information or character
I’ve sorted the players into tiers, and as with my team power rankings, players within the same tier are somewhat interchangeable
“Game Reminds Me Of” is NOT a direct comparison: It simply means I see similarities to a current player in style of play and/or movement profile on the court
Any testing or height/wingspan info I cite is from the NBA combine data
Finally, for each player I have listed my projection for their eventual NBA role, as well as my perception of their potential ceiling. Here are those role definitions, as well as a few examples of where I would slot current players based on their 2023-24 production.
2023-24 Examples of the Projected Roles:
All-NBA: Capable of being the best player on a high-level playoff team or championship contender
i.e. Anthony Edwards, Devin Booker
All-Star: A clear star player, probably best suited as a second option on a championship team
i.e. Paul George, Desmond Bane
Fringe All-Star: Capable of being a lead scorer at times, but likely has a distinct weakness or two and lacks consistent all-star production
i.e. Brandon Ingram, Zach LaVine
Priority Starter: A clear value additive starter, but best suited as a complementary player on a high-level playoff team
i.e. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Luguentz Dort
Quality Starter: Capable of starting and closing games, agnostic of opponent
i.e Kevin Huerter, Max Strus
High End Reserve: Impact bench piece, capable of starting in a pinch, or closing if the matchup dictates
i.e. Isaiah Joe, Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Quality Reserve: Deserving of bench minutes on a night-to-night basis, including playoff games
i.e. Josh Richardson, Isaac Okoro
Rotational Reserve: Clear NBA players, useful depth for the regular season but not a guarantee to hold a rotation spot come playoff time
i.e. Troy Brown Jr., Cedi Osman
G-League/2-Way: Fringe NBA players, candidates to fill out the final few spots on a roster
i.e. Dalen Terry, Keon Johnson
*Efficiency metrics (true shooting, usage rate, etc.) defined here*
TIER 1:
1. Ja’Kobe Walter / Baylor
Height/Wingspan: 6’5” / 6’10”
Rookie Season Age: 20
Player Type: Movement Shooter / Toolsy Defender
Game Reminds Me Of: Malik Monk / Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
With the ideal size, athleticism and length for the modern NBA shooting guard, it’s easy to see Walter having a long and fruitful career at the next level. He’s a confident three-point shooter with shot profile versatility, and an active defender who has flashed playmaking ability both on and off ball.
Walter got off to a red-hot start to his freshman season, but his efficiency faded over the course of his freshman year, and he finished up shooting just 37.6% shooting from the field. Even still, Baylor consistently ran plays for him to get open looks, often running him off flare screens and pin screens away from the ball. Walter’s release is a little low, but he gets it off quick and he has shown pretty deep range. For his age, he’s excellent at moving full speed off the ball but still getting his feet set underneath him on the catch. Walter also has a decent handle and good footwork on the drive, although he struggles to get all the way to the rim against size and length. He’s not a natural playmaker, which limits his on-ball upside, but he has showcased an impressive ability to generate contact with his herky-jerky style (5.8 FTA per 36 minutes), which provides a glimmer of hope that he may be a multi-level scorer at some point in his NBA career.
Defensively, Walter has the potential to be an impact piece. He competes hard at the point of attack, and does a good job of fighting through ball screens for a young player. His length is clearly an issue for smaller guards, and he surprises opponents with how quickly he can get into passing lanes to create deflections. He needs to get stronger and improve his off-ball awareness to maximize his potential, both as a help defender and a multi-positional asset. However, there’s no reason to believe that won’t come with age and experience, given his already demonstrated motor and physical tools.
Walter’s offensive upside may ultimately be limited to his work as a jump shooter, but there’s a chance he becomes a true weapon from beyond the arc. Even if the movement shooting he’s flashed never fully develops and he tops out as purely a catch-and-shoot threat, his defensive upside should propel him to a steady career as a prototypical “3&D” wing.
Projected NBA Role: Quality Starter
NBA Upside: Priority Starter
2. Stephon Castle / UConn
Height/Wingspan: 6’6” / 6’9”
Rookie Season Age: 20
Player Type: Aggressive Slasher / Secondary Playmaker
Game Reminds Me Of: Justise Winslow / Markelle Fultz / Dyson Daniels
Castle is a strong, physical prospect who was the #12 recruit in the high school class of 2023, and played a prominent role on UConn’s national championship team this past season as a freshman. Although he played primarily off the ball for the Huskies, Castle was a point guard in high school, and he’s made it known during the pre-draft process that he views himself as a lead ball handler. While I think it’s possible that point guard is his eventual and maybe even ideal position, I think it’s more likely he settles in on the wing in the NBA, which is why I did not include him in my on-ball ranks.
Castle played somewhat of a point-forward role in college, as UConn allowed him to initiate offense, but usually out of handoffs or second-side actions. His frame is very impressive for a player his age, and when he has time and space to load up off two feet, he can play well above the rim. He generally makes good decisions as a passer on his drives, and he was one of UConn’s better post-entry passers as well. He has a solid handle, but he’s not overly quick, so he has trouble blowing by defenders in isolation. However, his strength can be a problem for smaller players, and he plays with good balance in the paint, allowing him to overpower people on the way to the rim.
Castle’s shooting is a concern. He connected on just 26.7% of his threes this past season, and even more worryingly, attempted only 2.9 per 36 minutes. He’s not completely unwilling to let it fly when he’s open, but his release is low and slow: He’s going to need significant mechanical changes to be anything beyond a mediocre catch-and-shoot player in the NBA, and even that would require additional development.
On the defensive side, Castle has the physical tools to be a plus defender across multiple positions, particularly because he’s strong enough to eventually hold his own against bigger wings. He plays hard, and he showcases an above-average understanding of off-ball positioning. He’s not an incredible lateral athlete and he plays a little bit too straight up, so I think he might struggle with quicker on-ball guards, especially early in his career. However, on the whole, he should develop into a plus defensive player.
If Castle does indeed showcase more point guard skills in the NBA, my concerns with his shot will be mitigated to some degree. As is, I’m lower on him than consensus because I don’t believe he’s a dynamic enough creator to be an on-ball creator, and he’s going to be a spacing liability whenever he’s off the ball.
Projected NBA Role: Quality Reserve
NBA Upside: Priority Starter
TIER 2:
3. Jaylon Tyson / Cal
Height/Wingspan: 6’6” / 6’8”
Rookie Season Age: 22
Player Type: Big-Bodied Playmaker
Game Reminds Me Of: Joe Johnson / Evan Turner / Rudy Gay
Tyson attended three different schools in his three seasons playing college basketball, but he was handed the keys to Cal’s offense this past season and delivered, earning All-Pac-12 1st team honors. Tyson’s 55.7% true shooting doesn’t look amazing, but he had a massive workload (30.1% usage) and very little talent around him.
Tyson has a bit of a throwback game, preferring to methodically work his way to certain spots on the court as opposed to relying on burst and athleticism. He’s got a well-built frame that he uses to his advantage, and he has good footwork at all three levels of the half-court. He’s not going to blow past his defender as a driver, but he gets to the rim with physicality and craft on a pretty consistent basis. He’s a confident shooter, especially off the dribble, and I think he’ll hold his own from beyond the arc in the NBA, particularly when he slides down to play small forward. Tyson definitely has a tendency to pound the ball and over dribble, and there’s some questionable shot-selection on his film, but the hope would be that a more talented team around him will incentivize him to play a slightly different style. He’s a creative passer who sees the court well, but he’s definitely not a guy who can be relied upon to make quick shot/pass decisions and keep the ball moving.
Tyson’s biggest defensive asset is his size, as he’s almost certainly going to be better defending threes than he is twos. He’s smart enough to know where to be off the ball, and he’s a plus defensive rebounder, but quickness is an issue for him: He’s probably not going to be a guy who you’re super comfortable with defending on-ball in space.
I could easily see Tyson being the type of skilled and versatile offensive asset that is a useful secondary creator, or even the captain of certain bench units. Middling athleticism is a concern, as are some of his ball-stopping tendencies, but if he can prove that his shot profile was more a product of what he was being asked to do in college than who he is as a player, I could see him having a solid NBA career.
Projected NBA Role: High-End Reserve
NBA Upside: Quality Starter
4. Terrence Shannon Jr. / Illinois
Height/Wingspan: 6’7” / 6’8”
Rookie Season Age: 24
Player Type: Slashing Rim Attacker / Secondary Shot Creator
Game Reminds Me Of: Kelly Oubre / Kevin Porter Jr.
A fifth-year senior who spent his first three years at Texas Tech before transferring to Illinois prior to the ‘22-23 season, Shannon Jr. was one of the most productive players in college in ‘23-24. He finished third in the country in per-game scoring (23.0 ppg.), and he didn’t sacrifice volume for efficiency, posting impressive 62.2% true shooting.
Shannon Jr. is an aggressive left-handed slasher who overwhelmed college defenders with size and the forcefulness of his drives. The most impressive part of his statistical profile by far is his ability to draw contact, as he averaged 9.2 free-throw attempts per 36 minutes and shot over 80% from the stripe. I wish Shannon Jr. had a better understanding of how to vary the pace and speed of his attacks, but he’s got a knack for timing his straight-line bursts, and he’s got a very nice euro-step game. He’s capable of making basic reads as a passer when the defense crashes down on him, but there’s no doubt that he’s looking first and foremost to score.
Shannon Jr. was an impressive high-volume three-point shooter last season, getting up over 7 attempts per 36 minutes and making 36.2%. He is more comfortable off the dribble than off the catch, and he’s willing to pull from well beyond the three-point line. My biggest worry is how low his release is, as he may have difficulty getting his shot off with consistency against NBA length and athleticism.
Shannon Jr.’s defensive film is not particularly impressive. He’s not quick nor engaged enough at the point of attack to fight over ball screens or through hand-offs, and while his size allows him to play the three, he’s not a good rebounder or help defender. On the other hand, he looks like a good athlete, which may help prevent him from being attacked in isolation, and it’s possible that he’ll simply play harder on defense once he’s in the NBA and not being asked to carry such a large offensive load.
The upside is limited given that he’ll already be 24 before his first NBA season, but Shannon Jr. is a talented scorer whose production should translate, at least to some degree. He might be especially attractive to teams that are looking to add some punch to their wing rotation right away, as he’s probably the most ready to contribute of any player in this position group.
Projected NBA Role: Quality Reserve
NBA Upside: Quality Starter
TIER 3:
5. Cam Christie / Minnesota
Height/Wingspan: 6’5” / 6’8”
Rookie Season Age: 19
Player Type: Catch and Shoot Weapon / Projectable Defender
Game Reminds Me Of: Tim Hardaway Jr. / Justin Holiday
The younger brother of current Lakers’ guard Max Christie, Cam has been a late riser in the draft process after a solid Freshman season at Minnesota. He’s got an ideal body for an NBA shooting guard, and given that he won’t turn 19 until this July, there’s plenty of room for his game to keep developing.
Christie’s biggest asset is his jump shot. He made 39% of his 6.5 three-point attempts per 36 minutes this past season, and he has fluid, repeatable mechanics both off the catch and the dribble. Although it only showed up in brief flashes on film, I think there’s reason to believe he can become a weapon as a movement shooter as well, especially as he gets stronger and plays with more consistent balance.
Outside of the shot, the offensive game for Christie is pretty limited at this point. He showcased some ability to attack closeouts with straight-line drives to the rim, but he’s not an explosive vertical athlete, nor is he particularly skilled as a finisher. Minnesota let him play out of ball screens and hand-offs a bit, but that mostly resulted in pull-up jumpers, most of which were of the long-two variety. Christie is a willing passer who can exploit the defense’s tendency to overreact to his shooting ability, but he doesn’t profile as an on-ball creator.
Christie tested well laterally at the combine, and between that and his length, it’s easy to project him being an above-average defender across both guard spots. At this point, however, that remains a projection, as Christie isn’t yet strong enough to avoid being pushed around. He also needs to be better off the ball and as a rebounder, especially if a team envisions him eventually logging some reps at small forward. Thankfully, Christie plays hard, and if he can get stronger and improve his screen navigation, the tools are there for him to be a rock solid 3&D contributor.
Projected NBA Role: Quality Reserve
NBA Upside: Quality Starter
6. AJ Johnson / Illawarra Hawks (Australia/New Zealand)
Height/Wingspan: 6’5” / 6’8”
Rookie Season Age: 20
Player Type: Raw Athlete / Volume Scorer
Game Reminds Me Of: RJ Hampton / Shaedon Sharpe
The #47 overall recruit in the high school class of 2023, Johnson skipped out on college basketball in favor of Australia’s NBL. He really struggled to earn a role for the Illawara Hawks, averaging just 8 minutes per game, and shooting 35.5% from the field. However, prospect pedigree and some very impressive combine testing have him back on the draft radar as a true upside swing.
Athleticism is the first thing that pops on Johnson’s film, as he can finish well above the rim, and has a very quick first step for a 6’5” guard. He has a fairly tight handle and definite on-ball shot creation upside, although he aggressively hunted his jumper in the NBL, and rarely actually produced efficient offense. His shot mechanics are promising, as he has a quick release that is fluid off the dribble as well. His drive game is limited by his incredibly slight frame (167 lbs.), but as he gets stronger, his ball handling and speed should allow him to beat defenders off the dribble. If he can develop a more nuanced understanding of defensive timing and contact initiation, there’s a world where he’s a legitimate scoring threat on the wing in a few years’ time.
The defensive tools (other than strength) are there for Johnson, but he has very little clue what he’s doing as a team defender at this point in his basketball journey. Even with that lack of awareness, his movement skills allow for some flashes as a disruptive wing defender with his length and leaping ability. However, his lack of physicality shows up on the ball, as he is unable to navigate screens and his center of gravity is far too high to stay in front of smaller players.
The most likely scenario for Johnson is that he never puts the tools together, but a full season of consistent playing time in the G-League might be all he needs to develop the feel for the game that is currently sorely lacking on his film. If he grows into his body and gets more comfortable with the flow of high-level basketball, there’s a ceiling for Johnson that is higher than the prospects I have ranked around him.
Projected NBA Role: G-League/2-Way
NBA Upside: Quality Starter
7. Bronny James / USC
Height/Wingspan: 6’2” / 6’7”
Rookie Season Age: 20
Player Type: Point of Attack Defender / Transition Athlete
Game Reminds Me Of: Aaron Holiday / Gabe Vincent
Because of who his father is, Bronny James has probably received more pre-draft coverage than any fringe NBA prospect in history. After complications from a congenital heart defect delayed his much anticipated USC debut, James never quite found a rhythm in his Freshman season, averaging fewer than 5 points per game while shooting just 36.6% from the field.
All that being said, it’s not purely nepotism that has Bronny in consideration to be drafted. He’s an explosive athlete (40.5-inch max vertical leap) with plus length, and he maximizes his physical tools by playing extremely hard. He has a clear feel for the game as a passer and help defender, and although he was clearly struggling to shoot the ball, he consistently found other ways to make an impact on the court. Bronny’s athleticism and burst shows most clearly in transition, where his straight-line speed allows him to effectively run the wings and finish above the rim.
Although he shot just 26.7% from three on limited volume at USC, I’m not overly concerned about James’ ability to be an effective catch-and-shoot player. His form is pretty close to textbook, and he’s confident off the catch or after taking one or two dribbles. My larger worry is with his lack of ball handling, as Bronny is undersized for a wing but nowhere close to being an NBA-caliber on-ball guard on the offensive end. If he’s limited to being purely a shooting guard on the offensive end, that would put a lot of pressure on the shot not just to stabilize, but become a true weapon.
Defensively, James projects well. His quickness, IQ and length make him an ideal point of attack defender, and he should be an asset harassing point guards. Because of his wingspan, I think he’ll be able to tackle assignments on shooting guards as well, but he’s likely too small to handle most small forwards unless he gets significantly stronger.
If Bronny can turn himself into a plus three-point shooter, it’s not crazy to think he can carve out a role, especially if he goes to a team with a ball-dominant wing that allows their guards to function outside of the offensive action. Would he have remained in this draft if LeBron James wasn’t his dad? Probably not. However, that doesn’t mean he’s not a worthy flier for some team in the second round.
Projected NBA Role: G-League/2-Way
NBA Upside: Quality Reserve
8. Pelle Larsson / Arizona
Height/Wingspan: 6’6” / 6’7”
Rookie Season Age: 23
Player Type: Jack of All Trades / Dirty Work Specialist
Game Reminds Me Of: Christian Braun / Pat Connaughton / John Konchar
n a strict departure from the first three prospects in tier 3, Pelle Larsson is a 4-year college senior who played a critical role as a glue guy at Arizona over the past three seasons.
Larsson may not have any one area of his game that flashes as an obvious NBA skill, but there’s very little he doesn’t do at least adequately. He’s a plus athlete who plays hard and with intelligence, and he should be able to defend across multiple wing positions. He’s not a weapon from the outside, but he should make enough catch and shoot threes to at least get guarded. Larsson isn’t an overwhelming driver or playmaker on the ball, but he’s an above-average passer and ball mover, and he’s more than capable of attacking closeouts in a straight line and finishing through size at the rim. Some of his best film at Arizona is from his reps as a grab-and-go initiator in transition, as he’s very fast for his size with the ball in his hands, and he makes quality decisions when attacking an unbalanced defense on the break.
With prospects like Larsson, it’s sometimes hard to tell whether they’re simply not skilled/dynamic enough to play in the NBA, or they have the perfect set of complementary traits to be a valuable role player. I think Larsson is probably right on that borderline, and as such his NBA future will largely be determined by who drafts him and how well his team/coach understands what he brings to the table. I’ve got him at the bottom of tier three because his upside is capped, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s the only year 1 contributor of this group, and maybe even the one who carves out the longest NBA career.
Projected NBA Role: Rotational Reserve
NBA Upside: Quality Reserve
Honorable Mentions: Antonio Reeves (Kentucky), Trey Alexander (Creighton)