2024 Draft Ranks: On-Ball Guards
The 2024 NBA draft is rapidly approaching, which means it’s time to begin unveiling my draft ranks. Over the course of the next month, I’ll be releasing rankings by position, culminating in a final overall big board in mid to late June. Below you’ll find the first installment in the series: On-ball guards.
A couple notes to bear in mind:
These rankings are strictly film and athletic testing based, as I don’t have insight into medical information or character
I’ve sorted the players into tiers, and as with my team power rankings, players within the same tier are somewhat interchangeable
“Game Reminds Me Of” is NOT a direct comparison: It simply means I see similarities in style of play, and movement profile on the court
Any testing or height/wingspan info I cite is from the NBA combine
Finally, for each player I have listed my projection for their eventual NBA role, as well as my perception of their potential ceiling. Here are those role definitions, as well as a few examples of where I would slot current players based on their 2023-24 production.
Projected Roles Defined:
All-NBA: Capable of being the best player on a high-level playoff team or championship contender
i.e. Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
All-Star: A clear star player, probably best suited as a second option on a championship team
i.e. Tyrese Maxey, De’Aaron Fox, Jamal Murray
Fringe All-Star: Capable of being a lead offensive engine at times, but likely has a distinct weakness or two and lacks consistent all-star production
i.e. LaMelo Ball, Darius Garland, Derrick White
Priority Starter: A clear value additive starter, but best suited as a complementary player on a high-level playoff team
i.e. Fred VanVleet, Jrue Holiday, Dejounte Murray
Quality Starter: Capable of starting and closing games, agnostic of opponent
i.e. Mike Conley, Collin Sexton, C.J. McCollum
High End Reserve: Impact bench piece, capable of starting in a pinch or closing if the matchup dictates
i.e. Tyus Jones, Jordan Clarkson, Dennis Schröder
Quality Reserve: Deserving of bench minutes on a night-to-night basis, including playoff games
i.e. Spencer Dinwiddie, Delon Wright, Miles McBride
Rotational Reserve: Clear NBA players, useful depth for the regular season but not a guarantee to hold a rotation spot come playoff time
i.e. Kris Dunn, Cameron Payne, Jaden Hardy
G-League/2-Way: Fringe NBA players, candidates to fill out the final few spots on a roster
i.e. Josh Christopher, Jordan Goodwin, Bryce McGowens
*FULL PLAYER WRITE-UPS ARE LINKED TO THE PLAYER/TEAM NAME*
*Efficiency metrics (true shooting, usage rate, etc.) defined here*
TIER 1:
Height/Wingspan: 6’6” / Unreported
Rookie Season Age: 19
Player Type: Lead Playmaker / Slashing Driver
Game Reminds Me Of: Franz Wagner / Mario Hezonja
Projected NBA Role: Quality Starter
NBA Upside: Fringe All-Star
Height/Wingspan: 6’3” / 6’4”
Rookie Season Age: 20
Player Type: On-Ball Shot Creator / Secondary Playmaker / Point of Attack Defender
Game Reminds Me Of: Jalen Suggs
Projected NBA Role: Quality Starter
NBA Upside: Priority Starter
Height/Wingspan: 6’3” / 6’3”
Rookie Season Age: 20
Player Type: Shooting Specialist / Secondary Handler / Point of Attack Defender
Game Reminds Me Of: Immanuel Quickley / Avery Bradley / Payton Pritchard
Projected NBA Role: High End Reserve
NBA Upside: Fringe All-Star
Height/Wingspan: 6’3” / 6’8”
Rookie Season Age: 22
Player Type: Shot Creating Combo Guard / Versatile Perimeter Defender
Game Reminds Me Of: Leandro Barbosa / Kevin Martin / Eric Gordon
Projected NBA Role: Quality Starter
NBA Upside: Priority Starter
Height/Wingspan: 6’2” / 6’3”
Rookie Season Age: 20
Player Type: Shot Creator / Movement Shooter
Game Reminds Me Of: Kemba Walker / Nate Robinson / Anfernee Simons
Projected NBA Role: High End Reserve
NBA Upside: Fringe All-Star
TIER 2:
6. Ajay Mitchell / UC Santa Barbara
Height/Wingspan: 6’4” / 6’6”
Rookie Season Age: 22
Player Type: Lead Playmaker
Game Reminds Me Of: Austin Reaves / D’Angelo Russell
Projected NBA Role: Quality Starter
NBA Upside: Priority Starter
Height/Wingspan: 6’3” / 6’3”
Rookie Season Age: 20
Player Type: Shooting Specialist / Secondary Handler
Game Reminds Me Of: Malcolm Brogdon / Patty Mills / Seth Curry
Projected NBA Role: High End Reserve
NBA Upside: Quality Starter
Height/Wingspan: 6’1” / 6’4”
Rookie Season Age: 22
Player Type: Athletic Slasher / Versatile Shooter
Game Reminds Me Of: Donte DiVincenzo / Gabe Vincent
Projected NBA Role: Quality Reserve
NBA Upside: High End Reserve
TIER 3:
9. Carlton “Bub” Carrington / Pittsburgh
Height/Wingspan: 6’5” / 6’8”
Rookie Season Age: 19
Player Type: Shot Creator / Volume Scorer
Game Reminds Me Of: Bones Hyland / Brandon Ingram
Projected NBA Role: Quality Reserve
NBA Upside: Fringe All-Star
10. Juan Núñez / Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)
Height/Wingspan: 6’4” / Unreported
Rookie Season Age: 20
Player Type: High-IQ Facilitator
Game Reminds Me Of: Joe Ingles / Alexey Shved
Projected NBA Role: Rotational Reserve
NBA Upside: High End Reserve
Height/Wingspan: 6’2” / 6’2”
Rookie Season Age: 23
Player Type: High-IQ Facilitator
Game Reminds Me Of: Milos Teodosić / Facundo Campazzo
Projected NBA Role: Quality Reserve
NBA Upside: Quality Reserve
TIER 4:
Height/Wingspan: 6’4” / 6’6”
Rookie Season Age: 23
Player Type: Pick and Roll Playmaker
Game Reminds Me Of: Elfrid Payton
Projected NBA Role: Rotational Reserve
NBA Upside: Quality Reserve
Height/Wingspan: 6’1” / 6’3”
Rookie Season Age: 22
Player Type: Point of Attack Defender
Game Reminds Me Of: Jevon Carter / Davion Mitchell
Projected NBA Role: G-League/2-Way
NBA Upside: Quality Reserve
Height/Wingspan: 6’4” / 6’5”
Rookie Season Age: 24
Player Type: Crafty Scorer / Movement Shooter
Game Reminds Me Of: Ty Jerome
Projected NBA Role: G-League/2-Way
NBA Upside: Rotational Reserve
Honorable Mentions: Reece Beekman (Virginia), Judah Mintz (Syracuse)