Statistical Deep Dive: Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Speed Racers
The Pacers currently have the best offensive rating in NBA history - how are they getting it done?
Coming into the season, there was reason to think that the Indiana Pacers would be a much improved team. Young point guard Tyrese Haliburton made his first All-Star team in 2022-23, and the Pacers added a pair of impact players over the summer in Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin. In my team preview, I wrote at length about how Indiana’s run-and-gun style was going to be difficult for opponents to deal with, and I urged head coach Rick Carlisle to lean into his team’s transition ability to an even greater degree. 15 games into the season, the Pacers are exceeding my already optimistic outlook for their offense, as their 123.7 offensive rating is the best in the NBA. While Haliburton has taken a leap from an All-Star guard to an All-NBA candidate, there are no other obvious superstars on this roster that would lead you to believe this is should be a league-leading unit. For this week's deep dive, let’s take a closer look at the numbers to see if we can better understand how this Indiana offense has been able to be so potent.
*Note: All statistics courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference*
In Tyrese Haliburton’s first full season with the team (2022-23), the Pacers made a concerted effort to play faster, jumping up from 18th in pace to 5th. Over the summer, the front office doubled down on this shift in play style by actively acquiring players known for their transition ability. So far this year, it has translated to on-court play, as Indiana’s estimated 104.1 possessions per 48 minutes is tops in the NBA. While playing fast can be a way for teams without elite personnel to juice their offense by avoiding set defenses in the halfcourt, it is not necessarily an all-encompassing solution - the Wizards and Spurs, for example, rank 2nd and 4th in pace but just 22nd and 29th in offensive rating. Where the Pacers separate themselves is not just in their ability to maximize their total number of possessions, but also how remarkably efficient they have been in transition. Most teams have a choice - they can either emphasize pace and ball movement, which can lead to easier shots but also a higher turnover rate, or they can choose to live in the half-court, which leads to potentially less efficient shot creation but more effective ball control. Indiana is the exception to that rule - the Pacers currently rank 7th in total number of passes per game (295.3), while also having the third lowest turnover rate (12.5%) in the league. Of the six teams that rank ahead of them in passes per game, none rank higher than 12th in turnover rate. Indiana’s 2.33 assist to turnover rate is the best in the league, and they are one of just two teams to rank in the top 10 in both pace and assist to turnover rate.
In part due to their commitment to beating defenses down the floor before they can get set, the Pacers have an extremely efficient shot profile. Indiana’s 35.6 field goal attempts per game from within 5 feet of the basket ranks 2nd in the NBA, and they rank 9th in the league by taking 41.8% of their total field goal attempts from beyond the three point line. Generating such a large proportion of their shots from the two most efficient shot locations on the court is part of the reason why the Pacers rank 1st in the NBA in eFG% (58.7%) even without getting to the free throw line very much (.180 FT/FGA, 23rd out of 30). Of course, the other factor at play is how well Indiana has shot the ball from long range - their 39.4% team 3FG% is 2nd best in the NBA. It’s certainly possible that they will regress to the mean in terms of conversion rate over the course of the season, which would slow their historically good offense to some degree. However, when assessing the roster, there are no players shooting significantly above their career norms. The Pacers are helped by playing a floor-spacing center in Myles Turner (37.5% 3FG on 4.3 3PA per game) as well as two of the best high volume shooters in the NBA: Haliburton (45.4% 3FG on 8.5 3PA per game) and Buddy Hield (43.0% 3FG on 7.6 3PA per game). Even if Haliburton and Hield fall back a bit to their career norms (41.2% and 40.3%, respectively), Indy would still have one of the best shooting backcourts in the league.
While the Pacers do a lot of things well from a systemic perspective, and have done a good job of matching scheme with personnel, let’s not get it twisted: the engine for their success (and the main reason to think it’s sustainable) is Tyrese Haliburton. So far this year, Haliburton has been the type of singular offensive force that is worthy of MVP consideration. When he is on the court, the Pacers have a 127.5 offensive rating, which is best in the league for any individual player. Haliburton leads the NBA in assist percentage(49.3%) while turning it over on just 11.6% of his possessions, which ranks 8th-lowest among qualified starting point guards. Haliburton’s passing is the key to unlocking Indiana’s transition game, and he dissects traditional pick and roll coverage in the halfcourt as well. Haliburton’s efficiency as a scorer is preposterous. His 50.8% FG/45.4% 3FG/91.9% FT slash line would put him in the esteemed 50/40/90 club. His 66.4% true shooting is over 10% better than the positional average for point guards, and he’s doing it while leading his team in usage (26.5%). Haliburton is the straw that stirs the drink for the Pacers, and if he can keep it going all season, he will be on the short list of the very best guards in the NBA.
There are a few reasons to believe Indiana might fall off slightly from their current offensive output. They have been extremely healthy so far this season - their regular starting five of Haliburton/Hield/Brown/Toppin/Turner have appeared together in 14 out of 15 possible games. If Haliburton misses any time at all they will immediately struggle, but losing the elite shooting (for their position) that Turner and Hield provide for any stretch would be highly detrimental as well. Secondly, there is a chance that their three-point shooting cools off, although with the personnel they have and Haliburton’s ability to generate open looks for his teammates, I don’t consider their current output to be particularly unsustainable. Finally, there is the simple fact that we have never seen a team play offense at this level over the course of a full season - Indy’s 123.7 offensive rating would break the single-season record set by last year’s Kings by over 4 points per 100 possessions.
Ultimately, regardless of where the exact numbers end up, Indiana has shown enough that I believe they are a lock to finish this season as at least one of the five best offenses in the league, barring serious injury to Haliburton. If that is the case, this team is going to be playoff bound, and they might even threaten for a top 4 seed if they can improve their defense even marginally towards being a middle of the pack unit. I’m fascinated to see how the Pacers’ unique style of play translates to a playoff series, as well as whether or not Haliburton can continue to dominate at this level. The rest of this season should be informative for Indiana’s front office as to what they need to add around their superstar point guard going forward in order to maximize this team. We knew before the season that the future was bright in Indy, but we’ve learned that the present has a lot to offer as well.