Power Rankings Update: Tier 5
TIER 5: TEAMS EXPECTING TO MAKE THE PLAY-IN
Similarly to tier 4, tier 5 consists of teams that generally fall into 1 of 2 buckets. First, you have your young teams pulling themselves out of rebuilds - these teams have an exciting young player or two, an enthusiastic or at the very least intrigued fanbase, and a lot of optimism heading into the year. Second, you have your dreaded NBA purgatory teams - too good to get a high pick and a chance at drafting their next superstar, but not good enough to even have a glimmer of hope in terms of playoff success. Teams in this situation are often a chore to watch, as the fanbase is depressed or disinterested, the players are frustrated, and management is more focused on job preservation in the near-term than building a sustainable winner for the long-term.
Tier 5 teams can reasonably set their sights on making the play-in tournament - any success beyond that point is overachievement and would be cause for celebration. A few of these teams will need to take a hard look at themselves at some point around the trade deadline and make a decision about what’s best for their future - shutting it down for the year and scrambling for lottery position or kicking it into overdrive for a chance at the play-in and a couple games worth of home playoff revenue. It’s a hard choice that often requires front office job security and organizational sanity and as such, is often incorrectly made. One way or another, it will inevitably have a lasting impact on the years to come.
*For a refresher on the the layout of this power rankings update, click here
**All stats courtesy of basketballreference.com or NBA.com unless stated otherwise
UTAH JAZZ
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 33-49 (12th in West)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 21st
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 22nd
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 25th
Current Metrics:
Record: 22-20 (9th in West)
Offensive Rating: 15th
Defensive Rating: 21st
Net Rating: 19th
Team Overview: Finding their Groove
On December 11th, Utah lost by 14 in Oklahoma City to fall to 7-16 for the season. At that time, the Jazz ranked in the bottom five in both offense and defense, and their -8.8 net rating was 27th out of 30 teams. After an unexpectedly competitive season in 2022-23, it looked like a lack of talent and cohesiveness had finally caught up to this roster. In all honesty, that would have been ok: This season wasn’t supposed to be about winning for the rebuilding Jazz.
However, head coach Will Hardy never stopped tinkering with his rotation, and Utah has roared to life over the past month. They are 15-4 over their last 19 games, firmly back in the playoff picture in the Western conference. The Jazz have a +5.9 net rating in that time span, which ranks 8th in the league. They’ve completely turned around both sides of the ball, ranking 8th on offense and 11th on defense since December 12th.
Utah now sits right where they did at this time last season, surprising overachievers who are extremely well-coached and represent a complex challenge for opponents due to their unorthodox style of play. In and of itself, it’s exciting for the Jazz to win games, but in the bigger picture, this season reinforces the vibe that was built in Utah in 2022-23: The rebuild is going to result in something special.
Where I Was Right: Guards are the X-Factor
After trading away Mike Conley at the deadline in 2023, Utah saw their offense take a significant dip in the season's final few months. Coming into 2023-24, I predicted that finding their way into reliable guard play would be the key variable for this season’s team. The Jazz had many options for how to fill their backcourt minutes, but no obvious succession plan for Conley.
Early on this year, Utah’s guards sputtered, and so did the Jazz offense. Their initial starting combination of Talen Horton-Tucker and Jordan Clarkson wasn’t working, so Hardy tapped rookie Keyonte George to replace THT. George provided a spark of energy, but as a rookie, his inefficiency was still hurting the team. The fit with George and Clarkson was not perfect either, as both are more natural scorers than passers.
After an injury to George forced him out of the lineup for a few games, Hardy turned to an entirely new duo: Veteran journeyman Kris Dunn and enigmatic scorer Collin Sexton. The synergy between the two has worked perfectly, as Dunn is an excellent defender and capable passer, while Sexton provides efficient shooting and scoring juice in a way that Utah had been sorely lacking. Both Clarkson and George have had better success with the bench unit as well, where they can play more streamlined roles better suited to their specific skill sets. It’s no coincidence that Hardy finally landing on the right backcourt rotation has coincided with the overall turnaround of the team.
Where I Was Wrong: Building Through the Bigs
In my preview, I wrote about Utah’s unique three big approach, and about how they seemed to be committed to playing Lauri Markkanen at small forward. I named Walker Kessler as the second piece of their core next to Markkanen, and I theorized that offseason addition John Collins might be the next successful frontcourt rehabilitation project for the Jazz playing between those two.
Instead, Utah has had their recent run of success by moving Kessler to the bench, and playing Markkanen at the four and even the five. Injuries have played a role as well, but Kessler has been marginalized in order to allow the Jazz’ offense to thrive with a fully spaced floor.
I still believe in Kessler as an excellent rim protector and future starting center in the league, and I think the Jazz do as well. What I have learned is that Hardy and Utah’s coaching staff are not committed to any one style of play: They are willing to mold their philosophies to the strengths of the team and whatever is needed for success in a given stretch. To me, that’s the mark of great coaching, and an extremely encouraging indicator for the future.
Outlook Going Forward: Too Good to Succeed?
Let’s be perfectly clear: Winning games and getting the most out of your roster is not a bad thing. It’s proof that Will Hardy is the right man for the job, from both a schematic and culture-building perspective. It’s also exciting for the fan base, and it keeps everyone engaged and enthused with the future of basketball in Utah.
However, it does put the Jazz in an awkward position for the second year in a row. When Danny Ainge joined the front office before last season, he and General Manager Justin Zanik kicked off a rebuild by trading away Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. They dismantled the previous year’s team because they were good but not championship-worthy, clearly signaling that they were in search of a truly elite core.
As fun as this Utah team is, they need more talent to put around Markkanen in order to build the contender that they are looking for. One avenue to find that talent is the draft, but every win decreases the likelihood of a premium draft pick. Last season, they chose to trade away key pieces like Conley, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt despite being in the playoff mix. Can they afford to do that again with this year’s team, especially if they keep winning at their current pace?
Utah remains in tier 5 for me because I expect the front office to handle this team with a similarly measured approach. I could see a world in which they trade off key veterans like Clarkson and Kelly Olynyk, making the team worse in the short-term. As a result, I still envision them ending the year closer to the 10th seed than the 8th in the very competitive West.
TORONTO RAPTORS
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 36-46 (12th in East)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 26th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 8th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 19th
Current Metrics:
Record: 15-25 (12th in East)
Offensive Rating: 17th
Defensive Rating: 20th
Net Rating: 21st
Team Overview: Going Through Changes
Last season, the Raptors failed to accurately assess themselves, and it ended up costing them dearly. Toronto sunk resources into the team by trading away their 2024 1st round pick for Jakob Poeltl, when they should have been selling off pieces like impending free agent Fred VanVleet. The team ended up missing the playoffs, and VanVleet departed for Houston, with the Raptors left holding an empty bag.
Heading into 2023-24, my main concern was that Toronto would once again fail to recognize where they should sit in the team building process. By getting proactive and trading away OG Anunoby, team President Masai Ujiri has begun to quell my worries. The Raptors acquired Immanuel Quickley and R.J. Barrett in the deal, two players who should be both cheaper and much better fits next to Toronto’s main building block, forward Scottie Barnes.
I believe the Raps to be a better team than their 15-25 record, but nothing has changed about whether they should be looking to buy or sell. They need to finish the remodel and get a good return for Pascal Siakam as well, before he hits free agency this summer.
Where I Was Right: Scottie the Swing Piece
After being named the 2021-22 Rookie of the Year, Scottie Barnes suffered through a frustrating season in 2022-23 where he regressed or stagnated in many statistical areas. His inability to build off of his first NBA campaign led to questions about whether he was the franchise centerpiece he initially looked to be.
Unquestionably, the lone bright spot in an otherwise dim season so far has been how Barnes has bounced back in 2023-24. He’s taken on a bigger role in the offense, upping both his usage and assist rate, without sacrificing efficiency. In fact, he has boosted his true shooting from 52.4% in ‘22-23 to 57.5%. He’s also taken a massive leap as a shooter, attempting almost three more 3PA per 36 minutes this season while also converting at a 37.8% clip (up from 28.1%).
When I wrote about Barnes in my team preview, I noted that his development would be central to determining the Raptors future direction. Now that he looks like he’s back on an All-Star track, it once again makes sense for Ujiri and the front office to build the team around him. His overlap with Siakam on the court, as well as the age gap between the two, should only empower the organization to continue their retooling.
Where I Was Wrong: Defensive Turnaround
While I was ready to massively downgrade Toronto’s offense this year given the loss of VanVleet, I did believe that their defense was poised to take a leap. On paper, the Raptors appear to have excellent defensive personnel, especially given the presence of a true rim protector in Poeltl.
Thus far, it has not been the case, and I only expect Toronto’s defense to continue to slip now that Anunoby is in New York. Other than avoiding fouls, the Raptors lack an area where they truly separate themselves from the competition on the defensive end. They allow far too many looks at the rim, don’t force many turnovers, and struggle with physicality on the interior.
One area to monitor is opponent shooting luck. The Raps are allowing 38.8% opponent three point shooting, which is the third-highest mark in the league. If this regresses some, it’s possible that they will look more like a mid-pack defense than bottom third.
Outlook Going Forward: Can They Complete the Transition?
On the court, Toronto should win more games in the season’s second half, as they have gotten unlucky in many close games and have also dealt with some key injuries to this point. Depending on what they receive in return for Siakam, I’ll be surprised if they cannot rise above the other Eastern conference members play-in contenders and at least finish the year in the East’s top ten.
Ultimately, the win/loss results are trivial this year, just as they were at the start of the season. 2023-24 for Toronto is about positioning themselves for the future, and trying to dig out of the self-imposed hole of their past transactions. The Anunoby trade was a solid start, but that cannot be the end. Siakam must be next, and any other veteran with trade value should follow. If Toronto can play some competitive games down the stretch while featuring exclusively young, future-focused pieces in their rotation, that should be considered an organizational win.
CHICAGO BULLS
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 37-45 (11th in East)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 22nd
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 19th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 24th
Current Metrics:
Record: 19-23 (9th in East)
Offensive Rating: 22nd
Defensive Rating: 15th
Net Rating: 24th
Team Overview: Who Are These Guys?
What a weird season this has been in Chicago. It started off disastrously: On November 28th, the Bulls were 5-14, Zach LaVine had requested a trade, and it looked like Chicago was ready to initiate a complete tear down. Fast forward to today, and Chicago has gone 14-9 over their last 23 games to pull to a respectable 19-23, right in the mix for a play-in spot. To further complicate matters, most of their winning has come with both LaVine and Nikola Vucevic injured, two of their highest-paid players.
Chicago has gotten a breakout season from point guard Coby White, guard Ayo Dosunmu has taken another step forward, and veterans Alex Caruso and DeMar DeRozan are still very valuable players. On the other hand, LaVine’s contract and performance have dictated that he has almost zero value on the trade market and Vucevic has fallen off a cliff. Even with the positive vibes of the past few weeks, the Bulls are ultimately a mediocre team without a clear direction, the same team they’ve been for a number of years.
Where I Was Right: Vucevic Contract
When Chicago handed Nikola Vucevic a three year, $60 million contract in the offseason, it was immediately panned as one of the worst deals in the league. The Bulls seemingly bid against themselves for his services, and the complete lack of creativity they showed by structuring the deal without any team-friendliness in the form of options or non-guarantees was striking.
Somehow, after the way Vucevic has played this season, the contract may be even worse than I originally thought. The Bulls big man is in the midst of one of the least efficient seasons of his career, posting 51.8% true shooting. His three ball has abandoned him (27.2%) and he remains one of the worst foul-drawing centers in the league (1.7 FTA per 36 minutes).
Vucevic is not an awful defender, as he’s a good defensive rebounder and a big body who can alter shots at the rim. However, his lack of mobility can be exploited, and it limits Chicago’s versatility in his minutes. At age 33, that only figures to get worse over the life of his current deal.
Where I Was Wrong: Overlooking Coby White
One of my main criticisms of Chicago’s roster at the start of the year was what I viewed as a complete lack of intriguing young talent. While I still think they need an infusion of upside, I am willing to admit that my initial assessment undersold one player on the team: Coby White.
White earned the nod as the starting point guard to open the season, and he has had a breakout year. When Zach LaVine went out of the lineup due to injury, White was forced into a larger role, and he has thrived. He’s one of the better shooting point guards in the league, connecting on 40.2% of his 7.3 3PA per 36 minutes. He’s provided a huge boost to Chicago’s offense with his ability to score off the dribble, and he’s a solid (if unspectacular) passer as well (5.0 assists per 36 minutes).
By inking White to a three year deal at around $12 million per season, the Bulls look to have completed one of the best deals of last summer. White is a legitimate starting caliber player with enough size and shooting ability to play both guard spots.
Outlook Going Forward: Perpetually in Limbo
As long as Chicago keeps their team together (and even if they manage to move on from LaVine), I believe it’s fair to say that they are better than their brutal start would suggest. White has given them a much needed burst of shooting and competent point guard play, and their stellar perimeter defense gives them a solid floor on the point prevention end.
However, I’m also not buying that they are going to play at a .600 pace, as they have over the past month and half. I think a record of right around .500 from now until the trade deadline is more likely, which will keep them squarely in tier 5.
As always, the question for Chicago will be whether to sell or stand pat. I’m firmly in the camp that says trade DeRozan and Caruso, who would both undoubtedly net a nice return. That has not been the Bulls’ MO, so I’m guessing they simply try to unload LaVine, don’t find a deal to their liking, and end up doing nothing.
BROOKLYN NETS
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 39-43 (8th in East)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 25th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 7th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 17th
Current Metrics:
Record: 16-23 (10th in East)
Offensive Rating: 16th
Defensive Rating: 22nd
Net Rating: 22nd
Team Overview: Mediocrity is the Word
I’ll give Brooklyn credit for one thing: If the goal was to fly under the national radar after the chaos-filled “big three” years of old, they have certainly accomplished that task. Unfortunately, that stability they were searching for is starting to feel a whole lot like boredom: You can feel the lack of juice with this team whenever you watch them play.
The Nets have really tailed off of late, as they are 4-14 since December 8th after an encouraging 12-9 start. They’re getting slightly worse production out of players like Spencer Dinwiddie, Nicolas Claxton and Mikal Bridges than one might have hoped, but it’s not like there’s any massive underachievers to single out. There’s a lot of capable NBA players on this team and even some very good ones, but the lack of true lead-man talent on both sides of the ball seems to leave Brooklyn just a little bit short in the majority of their games.
Where I Was Right: Not Enough Juice
After being traded to Brooklyn at last season’s trade deadline, Mikal Bridges was one of the best players in basketball for the season’s final 27 games. He averaged 26.1 points per game on 60.7% true shooting, and it looked like Brooklyn might have stumbled into their franchise centerpiece.
Bridges has been a very good player this year, but he hasn’t been able to sustain superstat production. His true shooting is down to 56.5%, as is his overall scoring (21.7 points per game) and three point shooting (34.3%). He may be an excellent second or third option, but he’s clearly overstretched in a primary playmaker role.
The issue for Brooklyn is that none of their current pieces profile as that true lead engine. Cam Thomas has provided them with some huge scoring outbursts, but his inefficiency and lack of passing make him more of a bench option. Cameron Johnson is a very valuable wing given his shooting and defensive versatility, but he’s not a creator with the ball in his hands. The Nets need to find an offensive engine, or they are likely to have a firm ceiling on how good their scoring attack can be.
Where I Was Wrong: Defense First
Similarly to Toronto, I expected Brooklyn to be carried by the strength of their defense in 2023-24. Other than Cam Thomas, there’s not a clear weak spot in the Nets’ rotation from a defensive perspective, and the return of a healthy Nic Claxton gave me confidence that their combination of stellar perimeter defenders and quality rim protection would boost this unit to top tier production.
Unfortunately, head coach Jacque Vaughn has been unable to coax the most out of his talent on the defensive end. Claxton has taken a step back without the supplementary rim protection of Kevin Durant next to him, and the Nets as a team struggle with quickness on the perimeter and size on the interior. It’s a damaging combination, and one that points once again to a lack of true impact talent on this roster.
If the defense cannot have a resurgent second half of the season, it’s hard to envision an identity for Brooklyn that can carry them to wins. It’s also fair to question Vaughn if the defense does not improve: He’s a supposedly defense-first coach who has not found a way to maximize the solid talent he has been given.
Outlook Going Forward: Back to Average?
It’s likely the Nets always knew that this was going to be a year of transition. No team trades away players like Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving and expects to jump into immediate contention. I believe the plan in Brooklyn was to re-set for a year or two around good young players like Bridges, Johnson and Claxton while plotting their next big move in the summer of 2025, when Ben Simmons’ contract comes off their books.
However, I also think Brooklyn probably expected that they could at least field a playoff team in this interim stretch. I expected the same, projecting Brooklyn as a tier 4 team in the preseason. It now seems clear that their defense is not going to perform the way it appears it should on paper, and the offense is lacking star power. I don’t think their record in 2023-24 is a mirage: This looks more like a team that’s going to be fighting just to reach the 10th seed than one that can make it all the way to the final 8.
If that proves correct, I worry that Brooklyn may be tempted to do something rash in order to keep the fanbase engaged. In my opinion, that would be a mistake. Even if the team is slightly worse than expected, the Nets need to stay the course and take their lumps while developing the talent they do have and planning for the future.
ATLANTA HAWKS
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 38-44 (10th in East)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 15th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 25th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 22nd
Current Metrics:
Record: 16-23 (11th in East)
Offensive Rating: 8th
Defensive Rating: 27th
Net Rating: 23rd
Team Overview: Time for a Change
After a surprise run to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021, Atlanta has been floating around the fringes of the playoff picture for the last two seasons. The team has been aggressive in trying to build a winner around Trae Young, retaining key free agents, trading multiple draft picks to acquire Dejounte Murray, and spending big at head coach to bring in Quin Snyder. However, the Hawks are once again a team where the whole is worse than the sum of its parts, and it finally seems as if we have reached the end of the road for this current roster.
Atlanta remains committed to Young, but they are reportedly actively shopping Murray and it’s fair to surmise that they are open to dealing anyone other than Young and emergent forward Jalen Johnson. The Hawks have a roster full of slightly above average players who are simultaneously slightly overpaid, which makes for an interesting dynamic on the trade market.
On the court, Snyder has encouraged an uptempo style and a renewed emphasis on launching threes, which has helped boost the offense. However, the defense is abysmal, and Atlanta has also dealt with injuries among their key rotation pieces.
Where I Was Right: Turning to the Youth
One of the themes of my Hawks’ preview was the need for Atlanta to redistribute their rotation minutes away from some of their veterans and toward a few of their young pieces. While recent draft picks A.J. Griffin and Onyeka Okongwu are still playing less than I would like, Atlanta has found a new piece of their core in 2021 1st rounder Jalen Johnson.
Snyder inserted Johnson into the starting lineup early on this year, and he has clearly taken his game to a new level, averaging 15 points per game while maintaining very efficient 65.7% true shooting. Johnson is making over 40% of his threes, and his elite straight-line athleticism is a huge boost for the Hawks’ transition offense.
Johnson has given Atlanta starter-level production on his rookie contract, which makes him one of the few Hawks who is outperforming the level at which he is being paid. Pieces like that will be essential for Atlanta completing re-tooling successfully over the next few seasons.
Where I Was Wrong: Overlooking the Offense
If there is a definitive silver lining of this frustrating season for the Hawks, it’s that the Snyder/Young combination is proving to be capable of elite offense. Young himself is having one of his most efficient scoring seasons, and he has re-established himself as a capable engine when surrounded by the right pieces. He’s playing faster than he ever has, and he still has a penchant for setting up open shooters as well as finding his frontcourt teammates for easy dunks and layups.
While Atlanta has a long way to go to build a contending team, their baseline of offensive success should mean that re-establishing themselves as a solid playoff club should not be too far away. It’s also the main reason why I don’t believe they should be looking to move off of Young: While he’s far from the perfect player, it is very difficult to find primary options who generate consistently top-tier offense.
Outlook Going Forward: Who Gets Dealt?
It seems clear that Atlanta’s front office understands the need for a revamp. Not only is the team not good enough, but it’s also unsustainably expensive, especially for a non-contender. The first order of business will be to find the best possible value for Murray (and his nearly $110M contract), which will hopefully help recoup some of the draft capital the Hawks forfeited in order to acquire him.
Veterans Clint Capela and Bogdan Bogdanovic are still helpful players to contenders and could be moved, but both have money owed to them beyond this season at rates a bit above their value. The same is true for De’Andre Hunter, whom Atlanta is also reportedly looking to move on from. There is an obvious path forward for Hawks’ decision makers, but it won’t necessarily be easy to maneuver correctly.