Power Rankings Update: Tier 3 (Part 1)
TIER 3: COMPETITIVE PLAYOFF TEAMS LACKING CHAMPIONSHIP UPSIDE
Tier 3 is an interesting organizational dilemma. These teams are good - they have a proven baseline of regular season competence and a likely floor of a playoff berth. Typically, tier 3 teams have an all-star or two surrounded by high quality depth and solid coaching, the type of ingredients that make a team fun to watch on a nightly basis. However, for varying reasons, these teams have a limited playoff ceiling. It’s difficult to objectively evaluate these rosters (as currently constructed) and make a realistic case for them reaching the NBA finals, let alone winning it - for tier 3 teams making the playoffs is the standard, winning a round is the goal and winning two is a home run.
Tier 3 can be a fun place to be, especially for organizations like Cleveland, Sacramento and New York who have experienced so much pain and dysfunction. Winning 55-60% of your regular season games and battling the big boys come playoff time is a welcome change when you're used to chasing lottery balls every year. The problem? Tier 3 usually has a shelf life - ask DeMar DeRozan and Dwane Casey about being sent packing by the Raptors or Quin Snyder and Rudy Gobert about the disbanding of the Jazz. Eventually, the feeling of playoff hopelessness starts to hurt just as much as the regular seasons losses used to and fans start to push for a move towards being all in. For a few of the teams you will see below, now may not quite be that time, but have no doubt it’s coming. Being strategic about when and how to try and take that final leap to true contender status is the name of the game.
*For a refresher on the the layout of this power rankings update, click here
**All stats courtesy of basketballreference.com or NBA.com unless stated otherwise
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 43-39 (10th in West)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 17th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 13th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 16th
Current Metrics:
Record: 23-11 (3rd in West)
Offensive Rating: 4th
Defensive Rating: 9th
Net Rating: 3rd
Team Overview: Arrived
In 2022-23, the Thunder were a nice story. After entering the season with a projected win total in the 20s, OKC finished the year with 40 wins and got within one game of advancing to the playoffs.
There’s nothing cute about the 2023-24 Thunder: This is simply an excellent basketball team. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is backing up his breakout campaign from last year with another MVP-caliber season, and head coach Mark Daigneault has established himself among the NBA’s elite. Chet Holmgren is playing at a near All-Star level as a rookie, and the rest of OKC’s roster is chock full of ascendant talent.
OKC plays a modern style of basketball that is extremely difficult to contend with. They space the floor at all five positions without sacrificing rim protection on the defensive end, and they are extremely attuned to opponent strengths and weaknesses. They are very young, but they play beyond their years, and it’s leading to a lot of wins.
Where I Was Right: Giddey the Odd Man Out
In my season preview, I hinted that despite being an individually talented player, Josh Giddey was the high-profile piece of OKC’s core whom I deemed expendable. Off-court troubles aside, my feelings on Giddey have only been solidified by his play this year.
Giddey’s greatest strength is as a passer, and his biggest weakness lies in his inefficiency as a scorer. Because he’s limited as a three-point shooter, he needs to be on-ball to be most effective. The issue there is twofold. First, OKC has Gilgeous-Alexander, which means their on-ball reps whenever the two share the floor are largely spoken for. Additionally, even when Giddey plays without SGA, his inability to create efficient looks for himself at the rim or the free throw line limits the potential of the offense he can drive. I view Giddey as a floor-raiser for an offense, but he does not have a consistently positive impact for a team like OKC that has championship ambition.
If teams still value Giddey highly, I think OKC would be wise to make him the main piece in a deal for a better-fitting player. Who that is remains to be seen, but I have faith that Sam Presti and the OKC front office are actively on the hunt.
Where I Was Wrong: Overlooking Chet
In my season preview, I wrote how Jalen Williams would be OKC’s second-best player, and their most important core piece outside of SGA. In my mind, I was comparing Williams against Josh Giddey, and I firmly stand by that take: Williams has established himself as OKC’s secondary on-ball creator, and is a much more integral player for OKC’s roster build than Giddey. He’s having an excellent follow-up season to his standout 2022-23 rookie campaign, and I still think he has All-Star selections in his future.
However, I was wrong in stating that Williams would be the second-best player on the Thunder: That honor already goes to Chet Holmgren. What Holmgren has done in the first 34 games of his NBA career is just ridiculous, and the way that his unique skill set allows OKC to play has unlocked so much of what has made them dominant this season. Holmgren has been extremely efficient on offense: He is shooting 39.6% on 5.1 3PA per 36 minutes, and his overall true shooting is 65.0%. He’s also already one of the best rim protectors in the NBA, blocking 8.1% of opponent two-point attempts in his minutes on the floor, which ranks second-best in the league.
At this point in his career Holmgren’s offense largely comes via play-finishing, but with SGA and Williams in tow, OKC does not need him to be a lead playmaker. His ability to capably defend the both perimeter and the interior while maintaining OKC’s elite floor-spacing on offense makes Holmgren one of the more valuable players in the league.
Outlook Going Forward: Ready to Contend?
There’s zero question in my mind that OKC is a playoff team. They’ve proven that they are an elite offense as long as Gilgeous-Alexander is healthy, and while they have a few defensive flaws (namely defensive rebounding), they’re at the very least above average. I expect the Thunder to be hosting a first round playoff series come April.
The only question left for OKC is whether or not they are a legitimate championship contender this season, without making any additional moves. I was very tempted to move them into tier 1, but ultimately I can’t quite get there yet with a team that has zero playoff track record and very little playoff experience among their key rotation members. I think this is an eventual championship-level core even without any changes, but I’m hard pressed to believe that we see that in their first playoff run together.
PHILADELPHIA 76ers
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 48-34 (4th in East)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 8th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 6th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 4th
Current Metrics:
Record: 23-12 (3rd in East)
Offensive Rating: 5th
Defensive Rating: 5th
Net Rating: 2nd
Team Overview: Back on Track
I have to hand it to Daryl Morey: There might not be a league executive more adept at navigating uncomfortable situations and coming out on top. The Sixers looked DOA in the preseason this year, saddled with an unhappy star in James Harden and a roster that looked to be stuck behind the top teams in the East. Just a few months later, the Sixers are among the more financially flexible teams in the NBA, and there is new life among both the organization and the fan base.
On the court, Philly has reigning MVP Joel Embiid staking his claim to the award for the second straight season, and Tyrese Maxey has emerged from exciting young player to legitimate All-NBA candidate. Head coach Nick Nurse is pressing all the right buttons from both a schematic and team chemistry standpoint, and Philly is one of just two teams to rank top 5 in both offense and defense. The Sixers may end up with a similar regular season win total to seasons past, but they certainly feel different: It’s no longer crazy to think that they may actually have a chance at the title.
Where I Was Right: Moving on from Harden
Whether it was Harden or Morey who paved the way for Philly’s roster transformation is debatable, but either way it was a move that had to be made. Even with a happy Harden in town, the Sixers had proven that they were not a championship roster.
While not entirely his fault, Harden’s overlap with Tyrese Maxey was one of the constraining factors on Philly in 2022-23. This may have been the variable that Morey and the organization understood better than outside observers: Simply moving on from Harden would allow Maxey to thrive in a way he couldn’t before. The most important part of refusing to give Harden the new deal he was looking for in the offseason is that the Sixers are now free to search for a third star who fits between Maxey and Embiid. Any star wing that comes available should be in play for Philadelphia, and the thought of adding additional talent to a team that is already as good as the Sixers is a scary one for the rest of the league.
Where I Was Wrong: It Remains to be Seen
Much of my preseason analysis centered around the Harden drama, so many of my on-court predictions have proven neither wrong nor right, just irrelevant. For now, I’ll blend my potential mea culpa into the prediction I’m making about this team going forward: See more below.
Outlook Going Forward: Not Quite a Contender…But Close
Leaving the Sixers out of the true contender tier was my toughest omission so far. They have a championship level head coach, a top 5 player in basketball, and a true All-Star second option. They are among the NBA’s elite in terms of both record and net rating: By all rights, this team deserves to be in tier 1.
Maybe I’m putting too much stock into Sixers teams of old, but I don’t quite see this team as capable of winning it all. Part of that is Joel Embiid: Unlike other megastars, Embiid has not yet proven the ability to maintain his regular season production in the playoffs, and he also has major durability concerns that have consistently reared their head in the postseason. The other part is Philly’s supporting cast outside of their two stars: I don’t know if I believe in players like Tobias Harris, Kelly Oubre and Patrick Beverley to play the type of high-leverage roles the Sixers need them to play.
The biggest difference in my mind with Philly this year is that I consider them a legit threat to win a series against either Boston or Milwaukee, where in the past I did not. I just don’t see them taking down both of those teams and then one of the Western conference powers, like they would have to in order to hoist the Larry O’Brien. Adding an impact piece at the trade deadline could sway my opinion, but I have a feeling I’ll need to see playoff dominance before I believe.
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is expected to miss start of season due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 45-37 (8th in West)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 11th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 11th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 10th
Current Metrics:
Record: 25-10 (1st in West)
Offensive Rating: 19th
Defensive Rating: 1st
Net Rating: 5th
Team Overview: Defense and Depth
When trading a decade’s worth of draft picks for Rudy Gobert resulted in a chaotic season and a singular playoff win, Minnesota felt like an organization in dire straits. Fortunately, the 2023-24 Wolves are much closer to the team that President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly and the rest of the Wolves’ brass were expecting when they acquired Gobert.
Minnesota has been a dominant defensive team since game 1 this season, and unlike last year, they have also managed to stay healthy. The Wolves have one of the deepest rotations in the NBA, and they have ridden that proven regular season formula of defense and depth to the best record in the Western conference. They are cruising their way towards a playoff berth, and they have a real shot at securing home court advantage for the first round and beyond.
Where I Was Right: Steady Hands
In my season preview, I wrote about how different the vibes in Minnesota were following the mid-season acquisition of Mike Conley. As well-respected of a veteran as there is in the league, Conley’s steady passing and three-point shooting proved to be a much better fit at point guard than the volatile play of D’Angelo Russell.
With a core of Russell, Edwards and Towns, the Wolves were one of the least mature groups in the league. Adding Gobert only fueled that fire, but swapping out Russell for Conley was a step in the right direction. This year, everything feels much smoother and calmer in Minnesota. The weight of expectation from the Gobert trade has died down, and the Wolves have managed to thrive while staying under the national radar.
As we inch closer and closer to playoff basketball, I wonder if (and how) the psyche of this Wolves team will be affected. They have a ton of talent, and most of their players have been paid and are playing roles they seem happy with. However, the playoffs are a different type of pressure cooker, and Minnesota needs to continue to prove their ability to keep their cool.
Where I Was Wrong: Going Against My Gut
When I studied Minnesota before writing my season preview, I really wanted to bump up my projected win total to 50 games and place them in tier 3. By projecting them for the league’s 10th best net rating, they were well above 45 wins in my model, but I ultimately dropped them down a few games because of both the competitiveness of the Western conference, and my lack of faith in the organizational stability.
Ultimately, I was too low on their defense: I thought they would be good, but I didn’t think that Rudy Gobert still had DPOY-level play left in him. Gobert is back to absolutely walling off the rim, and it shows in the numbers: Minnesota has a 107.2 DRTG in his minutes, and they allow the lowest opponent eFG%(51.0%) of any team in the league. Having the league’s best defense is highly correlated with regular season wins, and if I had been able to put my full belief into the potential of this defense, I could have pulled the trigger on having Minnesota higher in my preseason power rankings.
Outlook Going Forward: Still a Murky Future
While I don’t quite believe that this is the best team in the Western conference, Minnesota has done more than enough to justify a jump from tier 4 to tier 3. In fact, when I watch them play, they feel like the definition of a tier 3 group: They are going to bludgeon bad teams, but I’m not sure their highest level of play is good enough to keep up with the true contenders in a seven game series.
While the Wolves’ success and stability this year has done wonders to justify the all-in moves they made in the summer of 2022, the looming financial difficulties that face this team mean that there is still a ton of pressure on this group to not just make the playoffs, but do serious damage. I don’t see that being in the cards: Their offense is heavily dependent on the moderately efficient shot creation of Anthony Edwards, and their depth advantage is less beneficial in the playoffs than it is in the regular season. I think a second-round appearance would be a win for this organization, but unlike many teams in tier 3, the window for Minnesota is narrow, and it’s fair to wonder if a single season of 50-55 wins and moderate playoff success justifies the cost for Gobert, and the opportunity cost of utilizing all their trade assets when they did.
*Editor’s Note: This is only part 1 of tier 3, stay tuned for the second half of tier 3, coming soon*