Post All-Star Break Tier Update: Part 2
Now that the All-Star break has come and gone, the NBA’s stretch run is officially underway. Rosters are almost completely set, and every team needs to ready themselves for their final push, be that towards optimal playoff seeding, a play-in berth, or the best possible lottery odds.
Below, you’ll find part 2 of my final tier re-set of the regular season. For a reminder on how I structure my power rankings, see the link to the series explanation here. As always, the most important detail to keep in mind: My rankings are structured by who I believe has the best odds to win the finals, not who I believe will finish with the best regular season record.
Tier 4: Teams Expecting to Make the Playoffs
Philadelphia 76ers
Current Net Rating: +3.7 (4th in East, 9th Overall)
Key Metric: Philadelphia’s net rating with Joel Embiid off court (-0.5) is 9.2 points per 100 possessions worse than when he plays (+8.7)
If Joel Embiid’s health were a certainty, Philadelphia would be an easy inclusion in tier 3. However, with Embiid unlikely to return before the final few weeks of the season, the Sixers are no longer a lock to finish in the top 6 in the East. Even if the reigning MVP returns to the court, there’s no guarantee he’ll produce at the level the Sixers would need in order to make a real run in the playoffs. Philly has shown a higher ceiling this season than any other team in tier four, but it’s hard to see them consistently reaching that level given their current injury question marks.
Golden State Warriors
Current Net Rating: +1.6 (7th in West, 13th Overall)
Key Metric: Golden State’s “new” starting lineup (Curry/Podziemski/Wiggins/Kuminga/Green) is outscoring opponents by 21.2 points per 100 possessions
Golden State has been far more formidable since Steve Kerr finally embraced the youth movement, and they have one of the sport’s ten best players in Stephen Curry. As long as Draymond Green can keep himself on the court, this is still a team that the top seeds in the West should be hoping gets bounced in the play-in.
Los Angeles Lakers
Current Net Rating: -0.6 (11th in West, 19th Overall)
Key Metric: The Lakers join the Bulls as the only two teams to rank in the bottom 7 of the league in both three-point attempt rate and opponent three-point attempt rate
Similarly to Golden State, the Lakers don’t have the night-to-night consistency necessary to guarantee they’ll even get a chance to affect the postseason. However, there’s no doubt that LeBron James and Anthony Davis make them scarier than your average play-in team.
Indiana Pacers
Current Net Rating: +1.9 (6th in East, 12th Overall)
Key Metric: Indiana is the only team currently in the top 6 of the standings in either conference to rank in the bottom ten in league-wide defensive rating
Tyrese Haliburton is finally starting to look fully recovered from his hamstring injury, and I expect Indy to lock down a top 6 seed in the East as a result. Once the playoffs come, it’s hard to envision the Pacers advancing past the first round unless their defense takes major strides over the season’s final 25 games. 45 wins and a competitive first-round loss is a nice building block season for Indiana, but that feels like their top-level outcome to me.
Sacramento Kings
Current Net Rating: +0.8 (9th in West, 16th Overall)
Key Metric: The Kings have outperformed their expected win/loss record by 4 games, most in the NBA
The underlying metrics say that Sacramento is a regression candidate, but they’ve managed to stave that off to this point. Unlike last year when they had the league’s #1 offense, the Kings don’t have any facet of their team that really stands out, and the supporting cast around De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis (outside of Malik Monk) is struggling. I’m not sure I would pick this team to make it through the play-in tournament if they don’t earn a spot in the West’s top 6.
Orlando Magic
Current Net Rating: +0.8 (7th in East, 20th Overall)
Key Metric: In 1,164 possessions this season with Jonathan Isaac on-court, Orlando’s defensive rating is 105.4 (98th percentile among qualified players)
After a mid-season slide, Orlando got healthy heading into the break and their defense roared back to life. The Magic under Jamahl Mosley are very well coached, and their bench unit gives them a real edge in the regular season. They should make it through to the final 8 in the East, but they’re a year of development or an offensive addition away from being a threat to advance to the second round.
Tier 5: Teams Expecting to Make the Play-In:
Chicago Bulls
Current Net Rating: -1.6 (9th in East, 20th Overall)
Key Metric: In the 38 games since their 5-14 start to the season, Chicago has the Eastern conference’s 6th-best record (22-16) and 7th-best net rating (+1.1)
Should Chicago have used the trade deadline to move their veterans and build for the future? Absolutely. Does keeping DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso in the Windy City mean that they have a puncher’s chance to win a couple play-in games and get the 8th seed in the East? Also yes.
Houston Rockets
Current Net Rating: -0.1 (10th in West, 18th Overall)
Key Metric: Shooting Guard Jalen Green’s usage rate (26.8%) is 6.9% higher than league average (19.9%), but his true shooting (53.2%) is 4.3% lower than the league-wide positional average (57.5%)
An injury to Fred VanVleet had the Rockets limping into the All-Star break, and they desperately need him back at full strength for their offense to have any chance at competency. On the bright side, rookies Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore have both flashed encouraging signs in bench roles, and Houston’s overall defensive turnaround this season portends well for their future.
Toronto Raptors
Current Net Rating: -3.1 (12th in East, 24th Overall)
Key Metric: In 241 total possessions, Toronto’s “new” starting lineup (Quickley/Trent Jr./Barrett/Barnes/Poeltl) is outscoring opponents by 13.6 points per 100 possessions
Toronto might have more talent and depth than any other team in tier 5, and the All-Star break may have been just what they needed to catch their breath given all the roster changes. The Raptors owe their 2024 1st round pick to San Antonio unless it falls in the top 6 selections, so I fully expect them to push extremely hard for a play-in berth.
Utah Jazz
Current Net Rating: -2.7 (12th in West, 22nd Overall)
Key Metric: In their 6 games following the trade deadline, Utah is 1-5 with a -7.5 net rating
The Jazz chose to sell at the deadline, moving Kelly Olynyk, Simone Fontecchio and Ochai Agbaji and replacing their vacated minutes via rookies Taylor Hendricks and Brice Sensabaugh. It might be the right choice in the long run, but in the immediate future those moves look to be enough to keep the Jazz in the lottery, especially given the depth of good teams in the West.
Atlanta Hawks
Current Net Rating: -2.1 (10th in East, 21st Overall)
Key Metric: Of Atlanta’s twelve 5-man lineup combinations with at least 100 possessions played, only two have posted a defensive rating better than the league median
Injuries to Trae Young and Onyeka Okongwu that will cause them both to miss extended time might be the final death knell for this underwhelming Atlanta team. It’s past time for the Hawks to take the torch to this roster, a process which I fully expect to begin this summer.
Tier 6: Rebuilding
Memphis Grizzlies
Current Net Rating: -5.8 (13th in West, 25th Overall)
Key Metric: Memphis’ current offensive rating (107.5) is the worst in the NBA
Taylor Jenkins deserves serious props for getting this team full of G-Leaguers and injury replacements to defend at a top-10 level. However, it might behoove Memphis to fully embrace the tank and add a high lottery pick to what they hope will be a contender in 2024-25.
Brooklyn Nets
Current Net Rating: -3.0 (11th in East, 23rd Overall)
Key Metric: After getting out to a respectable 13-10 start, Brooklyn is 8-25 since December 13th, posting the league’s 5th-worst net rating (-7.2) over that span
The Nets have quietly been one of the NBA’s bigger disappointments this season. Nobody expected them to be world-beaters, but most predicted them to finish somewhere between 6th and 10th in the East. They’ve flat-out sucked for a while now, and Jacque Vaughn lost his job because of it. Brooklyn needs an infusion of offensive talent in the worst way.
San Antonio Spurs
Current Net Rating: -8.5 (14th in East, 26th Overall)
Key Metric: In 26 games since the start of 2024, San Antonio “only” has a -4.5 net rating. Progress!
Victor Wembanyama still has a ways to go before he can carry an offense, but he’s one of the truly elite defensive forces in the NBA right now. San Antonio has been bad but competitive for a few months now, which is perfectly fine for where they sit in the team-building process.
Charlotte Hornets
Current Net Rating: -10.2 (15th in East, 30th Overall)
Key Metric: Since the start of the 2022-23 season, LaMelo Ball has played in 58 out of a possible 139 games for the Hornets (42%)
Charlotte might have had my favorite trade deadline of any team in the NBA, and adding competent NBA players like Grant Williams and Tre Mann to their rotation has them playing much better basketball. The Hornets should use the rest of this season to put the ball in Brandon Miller’s hands as much as possible, while attempting to rebuild their off-court culture.
Portland Trail Blazers
Current Net Rating: -9.0 (15th in East, 28th Overall)
Key Metric: The Blazers have a -11.8 net rating with Scoot Henderson on-court this season, ranking him in the 9th percentile of all qualified players
It hasn’t gotten a ton of attention, but Shaedon Sharpe’s season-ending core muscle injury is a brutal blow to the Blazers, who desperately needed this window to evaluate Sharpe’s fit next to Scoot Henderson. Portland feels a bit directionless overall, and it may be time to consider moving on from Chauncey Billups.
Detroit Pistons
Current Net Rating: -8.9 (13th in East, 27th Overall)
Key Metric: The Pistons are 6 games below their expected win/loss total of 14-48. Head coach Monty Williams is in the first year of a contract that guarantees him $78 million over 6 seasons.
The Pistons acquired a couple of interesting pieces at the trade deadline in Quentin Grimes and Simone Fontecchio, and that should help them to reasonably assess what they have in the backcourt pairing of Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey. Detroit is still awful, but they’re no longer a candidate to break the all-time NBA record for single-season losses.
Washington Wizards
Current Net Rating: -9.2 (14th in East, 29th Overall)
Key Metric: Washington’s 119.8 defensive rating would be the second-worst in NBA history over a full season (behind only the 2023-24 Pistons (119.9))
By trading Daniel Gafford to Dallas, the Wizards took one of the worst defenses of all time and removed its only rim protector. #1 pick, here comes Washington!