Post All-Star Break Tier Update: Part 1
Now that the All-Star break has come and gone, the NBA’s stretch run is officially underway. Rosters are almost completely set, and every team needs to ready themselves for their final push, be that towards optimal playoff seeding, a play-in berth, or the best possible lottery odds.
Below, you’ll find part 1 of my final tier re-set of the regular season. For a reminder on how I structure my power rankings, see the link to the series explanation here. As always, the most important detail to keep in mind: My rankings are structured by who I believe has the best odds to win the finals, not who I believe will finish with the best regular season record.
Tier 1: Definite Championship Contenders
Denver Nuggets
Current Net Rating: +3.6 (5th in West, 9th Overall)
Key Metric: +10.1 Net Rating with Nikola Jokic on court
The Nuggets hit a bit of a lull through the middle of the season, but I still believe that the best version of Denver is the title favorite. I’m keeping my eye on Aaron Gordon down the stretch, who is having one of the worst shooting seasons of his career and has battled nagging injuries throughout. Denver needs the version of Gordon they got in the 2023 playoffs in order to fight their way through matchups against the likes of Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant.
Boston Celtics
Current Net Rating: +10.4 (1st in East, 1st Overall)
Key Metric: 7 out of Boston’s 8 lineup combinations with at least 115 possessions played have a net rating of +12.1 or better
The Celtics have unquestionably been the 2023-24 regular season’s top team. They should cruise to the #1 seed in the East and home court advantage throughout the entire playoffs, and the top 6 in their rotation is the best in basketball. My biggest questions: Can Boston get over the hump of offensive stagnation that has plagued them over the past few playoffs? Can Jayson Tatum be the best player in playoff matchups against Giannis Antetoukounmpo, Jimmy Butler and/or Joel Embiid, and if he can’t, are the Celtics talented enough to win anyway?
Los Angeles Clippers
Current Net Rating: +4.9 (3rd in West, 6th Overall)
Key Metric: Kawhi Leonard is on track to play 70 regular season games for the first time since 2016-17
The Clips were the laughingstock of mainstream NBA media after their 3-7 start that included 5 straight losses post James Harden acquisition. However, since that point, they’ve quietly logged the best record in the Western conference (33-11), and the underlying metrics back them up as one of the league’s elite teams. I have no doubts about the top-end talent, but as it always does, ultimate success will be reliant on this team’s health. If Leonard and George make it to the playoffs intact, I’ll give serious consideration to picking LAC to win it all.
Milwaukee Bucks
Current Net Rating: +3.1 (5th in East, 11th Overall)
Key Metric: Milwaukee’s preferred starting lineup (Lillard/Beasley/Middleton/Antetokounmpo/B. Lopez) has a +16.0 net rating in 1137 possessions this season
Maybe the Bucks don’t deserve this much benefit of the doubt, but it’s very difficult for me to drop them out of the contender tier given how well Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing this season. I covered Milwaukee’s midseason struggles in depth earlier this week, and I do believe there’s some legitimate reason for concern. However, I’m still giving them a puncher’s chance to put it all together, assuming Khris Middleton makes a return to full health.
Tier 2: High Ceiling Teams w/ Extreme Variance
Phoenix Suns
Current Net Rating: +3.1 (6th in West, 10th Overall)
Key Metric: In 908 possessions with Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant on the court, Phoenix has a 127.2 offensive rating (99th percentile among qualifying three-man lineup combinations
Phoenix staked their claim to legitimate title contention by going 18-7 with a +6.8 net rating in their final 25 games before the All-Star break. Uncoincidentally, that was also their healthiest stretch of the season by far, as they had their “big three” available for most of that sample. The Suns have the NBA’s most talented duo in Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, but the rest of their roster is really testing the boundaries of quality playoff contribution. I have to keep them in tier two until Bradley Beal proves he can stay on the court for an extended run: This team doesn’t have anywhere near the depth to win the finals at anything less than full strength.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Current Net Rating: +7.6 (1st in West, 2nd Overall)
Key Metric: OKC and Boston are the only two teams in the NBA that currently rank in the top 5 in both offensive rating and defensive rating
It’s pretty rare for me to give a team a title ceiling in their first season as a true playoff threat, but the Thunder are the exception to the rule. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a top-three MVP candidate and one of the ten best players in the league, Mark Daigneault is one of the NBA’s premier coaches, and OKC has talent oozing out of every pore of the roster. On the other hand, they are ridiculously young and remarkably light on playoff experience at just about every spot in their rotation. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a veteran-laden team outclass them early in this year’s playoffs, but at this point it also wouldn’t shock me to see the Thunder dominate the postseason in the same fashion they’ve handled the regular season.
Miami Heat
Current Net Rating: +0.3 (8th in East, 17th Overall)
Key Metric: The Heat are the only defense in the league to rank top ten in opponent free throw rate, opponent turnover percentage and defensive rebound rate
Absolutely nothing about Miami’s regular season profile to this point suggests that their top-level outcome is a championship. However, that was also the case last regular season, and come playoff time they steamrolled through Milwaukee and Boston on their way to a finals berth. I’ve said it all year long, and I’ll say it again: As long as Jimmy Butler is healthy and Erik Spoelstra is patrolling the sidelines, the Heat have a chance to win any series they play, which is why they reside in tier 2.
Tier 3: Competitive Playoff Teams Lacking Championship Upside
Minnesota Timberwolves
Current Net Rating: +7.0 (2nd in West, 3rd Overall)
Key Metric: The gap between Minnesota’s #1 ranked defense and Boston’s #2 ranked defense (2.4 points per 100 possessions) is the same as the gap between Boston and #9 ranked Miami
Wolves fans are likely screaming at their computers seeing their team ranked outside the title contenders, but Minnesota’s regular season prowess doesn’t quite have me convinced of their postseason viability. Their defense is indeed elite, but it’s heavily reliant on Rudy Gobert’s rim protection, which is a model that broke down in the playoffs when Gobert was in Utah. The Wolves’ success is also highly attributable to their excellent depth, which in my opinion, becomes less valuable in the postseason. Ultimately, Minnesota’s 17th-ranked offense and their lack of reliable shot creation outside of Anthony Edwards is what does them in for me more than anything else. Even if they grab the #1 seed in the West, I don’t see this team as a legitimate threat to win it all.
New York Knicks
Current Net Rating: +5.0 (3rd in East, 5th Overall)
Key Metric: In O.G. Anunoby’s 495 minutes with the team, New York has a 99.5 defensive rating, and is outscoring opponents by 25.3 points per 100 possessions overall
The Knicks are currently treading water while they await the returns of Julius Randle, O.G. Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson, but when fully healthy this is the deepest 10-man rotation in the league. New York has shown real flashes of dominance on both ends of the court this season, and they are firmly in the mix for the #2 seed in the East. I don’t believe they have enough star power to threaten for a championship this season, but this team is as solid a bet to reach the second round of the playoffs as anyone.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Current Net Rating: +5.6 (2nd in East, 4th Overall)
Key Metric: Since January 1st, Cleveland has the NBA’s best record (18-4), net rating (+13.5), and defensive rating (107.2)
Much like the Knicks, the Cavs have hit their regular season groove and seem likely to push for somewhere between 50-55 wins. Cleveland’s defense gives them a truly elite unit, but I have enough questions about their ability to score against quality playoff opponents that I can’t boost them out of tier 3 just yet. I’m fascinated to see a potential Cavs/Knicks rematch this season, as I’m sure Cleveland will want to prove they’re a much different team than the one that got thoroughly dominated by New York last year.
Dallas Mavericks
Current Net Rating: +1.5 (8th in West, 14th Overall)
Key Metric: In the 1,452 possessions where Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have shared the court, Dallas’ 123.2 offensive rating ranks in the 95th percentile among all qualified two-man lineup combinations
Dallas was the NBA’s most aggressive team at the trade deadline, trading multiple future first-round selections in order to fortify their depth with P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford. While I question the long-term sanity of their moves, there’s no question that this a more fully-formed roster than the one that flamed out and missed the play-in in 2023. Luka Doncic gives Dallas an ace in the hole come playoff time, but I don’t see the Mavs defense or general health holding up enough to give them a chance to make a deep run.
New Orleans Pelicans
Current Net Rating: +4.8 (4th in East, 7th Overall)
Key Metric: Since getting blown out by the Lakers in the in-season tournament semi-finals on December 7th, the Pelicans are 22-11 and have posted the league’s 3rd-best net rating (+8.5) over that span
The Pels have managed to keep Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram relatively healthy this season, and as a result they’ve banked enough wins to where they appear to be a playoff lock. New Orleans is deep and they have a proven regular season formula, but I still view this unit as one that beats up on bad teams and is outclassed by top-tier opponents.