Mid-Season Faller: Milwaukee Bucks
Should we still be classifying this preseason contender among the championship favorites?
I often think of the NBA regular season as a three-part play. Act I runs from the start of the season through the holidays, giving us our first look at new roster constructions and breakout players. The early stages are critically important, as teams seek to establish their identities and set the tenor of the season. As the old saying goes, you can’t win the Finals before Christmas, but you can certainly lose it.
Act II spans from New Year’s Day until the All-Star break, meaning we have just reached its conclusion. While this is technically the shortest segment of the schedule, it definitely has the most “dog days” feel of the three. Virtually everyone is shorthanded in some capacity, and most are doing their best to balance the health of their players against the unceasing nature of the 82-game schedule. I’ve found that this is the most common time for teams to let go of the rope a bit, especially those that are coming off consecutive seasons of deep playoff runs.
The middle of the season represents a window of opportunity, both to steal wins from contenders and steamroll the league’s bottom-feeders. The teams best able to capitalize on this period are setting themselves up for success, either by climbing into the playoff picture or solidifying their seeding. On the other hand, those who struggle through this period may feel the impact once the playoffs start and they find themselves behind the 8-ball from a seeding perspective. Below, I’ll highlight the Bucks, who have seen a significant drop-off in quality of play since the start of the new year, and analyze what’s changed. Is it time for a fan base with championship expectations to hit the panic button, or is this just a mid-season lull that can be overcome?
In case you missed it, check out my “Mid-Season Risers” article, linked here
MILWAUKEE BUCKS:
Key Metrics through 12/31/2023:
Record: 24-8 (2nd in East)
Net Rating: +5.7 (3rd in East, 4th Overall)
Offensive Rating: 121.0 (2nd in East, 2nd Overall)
Defensive Rating: 115.3 (8th in East, 17th Overall)
Key Metrics from 1/1/24 - 2/15/24:
Record: 11-13 (9th in East)
Net Rating: -0.5 (6th in East, 17th Overall)
Offensive Rating: 116.1 (5th in East, 15th Overall)
Defensive Rating: 116.6 (8th in East, 18th Overall)
The magnifying glass has been on Milwaukee all season long after their headline-grabbing acquisition of Damian Lillard, and the results have been a mixed bag. They were able to paper over some of their defensive struggles in the early portion of the season with an elite offense and unsustainably favorable results in close games, but they’ve been undeniably mediocre over the past 6 weeks. That all came to a head with the January 23rd firing of first-year head coach Adrian Griffin just 43 games into his first season at the helm. Milwaukee may be better off without Griffin in the long run, but the early returns are poor: The Bucks are just 5-8 since the firing, including 3-7 under permanent replacement Doc Rivers.
Replacing Jrue Holiday with Lillard (and then tabbing Malik Beasley as his primary backcourt partner) was a clear signal that Milwaukee planned to be a more of an offensive-minded team this season. Adding that juice made sense given their 2023 playoff failure against the Heat, where their scoring failed them, particularly in late-game situations. Additionally, Lillard theoretically made them less reliant on the health of Khris Middleton, which was one of their primary pitfalls going back to the 2022 playoffs.
One of the biggest wins from their personnel shift has been unlocking the most efficient version of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has been excellent on the offensive end for the entirety of the season. There hasn’t been nearly as much pressure on Giannis to be the sole shot creator: Over 50% of his field goals have been assisted for the first time since 2014-15, and 51% of his field goal attempts have come from within three feet of the basket, his highest rate since 2018-19. His overall true shooting is at 65.1%, which would be the best mark of his career.
Unfortunately, Milwaukee’s offense as a whole hasn’t been nearly as consistent as its best player. Some of that is due to health: Middleton hasn’t played in 7 out of the last 11 games, Brook Lopez had a three game absence for personal reasons, and Lillard has missed time as well. Every team deals with injury, but the Bucks complete lack of depth makes any absence from their studs loom that much larger. Another reason for their offensive decline has been three-point shooting. Prior to 12/31, they were connecting on 46.1% of their 9.9 corner three-point attempts per game, which was the second-best mark in the league. Since the start of 2024, their volume has gone up (10.7 attempts per game) but their efficiency has cratered (36.3%, t-26th). While 46.1% may be above their true talent level, I expect them to split the difference between those two marks and be closer to 40% from the corners the rest of the way, which will boost the offense as a whole.
More worrying for me is their shot data at the rim. Because of Antetokounmpo’s remarkable finishing ability, Milwaukee always ranks among the league leaders in restricted area field goal percentage. Prior to 12/31, they coupled the second-highest conversion rate (70.3%) with the 10th-highest number of attempts per game (27.8) to be one of the league’s most effective teams at the rim. However, since 1/1, they have plummeted to 26th in restricted area attempts per game (24.8). Outside of Giannis, they have been struggling to put consistent pressure on opposing rim protectors, and there’s not a clear solution that I can see. As good of an offensive player as Lillard is, he’s 33 years old with waning athleticism, and consistently getting to the basket is no longer one of his strengths. 20.3% of his field goal attempts this season are coming from within three feet of the basket, which is a career-low by nearly three full percentage points.
While these may seem like marginal differences, they are critical because it’s quite clear that Milwaukee’s defense can no longer be counted on to carry them like it has in previous years. Even if positive three-point shooting regression bumps Milwaukee up from 15th in offensive ratingto the top ten, it may not be enough to overcome their decidedly below-average point prevention. In order to be an elite team, the Bucks need to be one of the very best offenses in the league. It’s possible, but it requires full health from their stars and an uptick in play from their complementary players, neither of which is anything close to a guarantee.
In addition to his reportedly tenuous grip on the locker room, Griffin lost his job in large part due to the team’s defensive decline. Some of that criticism was justified: The Bucks don’t have the personnel to play the aggressive, turnover-forcing style that he wanted, and it led to them surrendering way too many uncontested drives to the rim and easy buckets in transition. Doc Rivers is savvy enough to understand that Milwaukee’s defensive strength is the dual rim protection of Antetokounmpo and Lopez, and the reversion to playing through those two has already begun. They’re allowing two fewer restricted area field goal attempts per game since January 1st, and they’ve seen a slight reduction in opponent 3PA from the corners as well.
Nevertheless, the Bucks remain slightly below the league median in defensive rating, and I believe their personnel dictates a limited ceiling. Even when he’s fully healthy, Middleton is no longer an above-average defender on the wing, and both Lillard and Beasley are clear negatives at the point of attack. Key depth pieces Pat Connaughton and Jae Crowder are solid but have each dealt with injuries for most of the season, and Bobby Portis represents a steep downgrade when either Antetokounmpo or Lopez needs a rest. Deadline acquisition Patrick Beverley could help in a limited role, but he’s so bad on the offensive end that he might be giving back whatever he adds.
Milwaukee never forces turnovers (2nd-worst 10.5% opponent turnover rate), which puts a ton of pressure on their defense to dictate opponent shot profile and force inefficient attempts. That over-reliance on systemic defensive success as opposed to a more versatile, personnel-focused scheme is what got Mike Budenholzer fired after last season, and now the defenders operating within the system are even worse. Rivers is a successful NBA coach, but he’s never been known for his creativity or ability to adapt in the playoffs, and I don’t foresee that changing now that he’s leading the way for a fourth organization.
I believe superstar talent is what wins championships in the NBA, and the Bucks have it, which is why I can’t count them out. Antetokounmpo is probably the second or third best overall player in the NBA, and he could easily put the team on his back for multiple playoff series. Lillard gives them a fourth-quarter closer that they’ve never had in this current era of the team, and I think his shot creation will prevent them from the late-game collapses that destroyed them in last year’s loss to Miami. The presence of those two still leads me to believe that this is the second-most likely team to come out of the East, behind only Boston.
However, I also think it’s probable that they finish behind both Cleveland and New York in the standings, which means they’re likely looking at just one round of home court advantage. If Middleton or any of their other “core four” pieces go down, the Bucks are in serious trouble. I’m not sure they have anyone else outside of those four that I feel great about being in a playoff closing lineup. The longer they go without looking like a top-tier team, the harder it is to believe they’ll be able to flip the switch and get there when it matters. I’m not saying it can’t happen, just that it seems less likely to me than it did before the season that it will.