On-Ball Guard Ranks, Tier 4
Three highly-acclaimed college players make up the final tier of my on-ball guard ranks
The Basketball Notebook is back for the 2025 NBA draft. Over the course of the next month, I’ll be releasing tiered rankings by position, culminating in a final overall big board in mid to late June.
Click here for a few important reminders about how I structure my rankings and write-ups.
Click here for Tier 1 of the on-ball guard ranks, here for Tier 2, and here for Tier 3.
TIER 4:
Kam Jones / Marquette
Height/Wingspan: 6’4” / 6’6”
Rookie Season Age: 23
Player Type: Crafty Scorer / Pick-and-Roll Facilitator
Game Reminds Me Of: Jalen Pickett / Dillon Jones
One of the best players in college basketball last season, Jones earned consensus All-American honors while leading Marquette in both scoring and assists. He’s got a pro-ready game and flashed much-improved playmaking skills in his senior season.
After spending the early part of his Marquette career playing next to star point guard Tyler Kolek, Jones was forced into an increased on-ball workload this past year. His efficiency as a scorer suffered as a result: He dropped from 61.4% true shooting as a junior to 55.4% as a senior. 46.2% of Jones’ shooting possessions came as a pick-and-roll ball handler, putting him in the 99th percentile of P&R usage in Division I. Jones has a strong, physical frame and very good footwork in the paint, which allowed him to be very efficient around the rim in college. 44.2% of his field goal attempts came at the basket, and he averaged 1.30 points per shot attempt (79th percentile efficiency) on those looks. However, I have concerns that his limited athleticism (31.5” max vertical leap) will prevent him from being as effective as a driver in the NBA. He’s also surprisingly ineffective as a foul-drawer (7.7% free-throw attempt rate), which removes a secondary path to efficiency.
f Jones isn’t able to consistently get to the basket off the dribble, I’m not sure how he’ll be an efficient scorer. Jones’ three-point percentage fell from 39.9% as a junior to 31.4% as a senior, primarily because of his struggles as a shooter off the dribble. He made just 14 of his 72 (19.4%) of his off-dribble three-point attempts last season, and his low and slow release makes it difficult for him to generate clean looks. He is an aggressive shooter off the catch with deep range, but I don’t believe in his ability to hurt teams with self-created jump shots.
While Jones’ scoring efficiency went the wrong way last season, the same can’t be said of his passing. He upped his assist rate from 13.6% to 22.8% with only a marginal jump in his turnover rate (8.7% to 9.5%). Jones reads pick-and-roll defense very effectively, and he rarely gets sped up or plays out of control. His lack of explosion limits his playmaking ceiling, but his mistake-free style is one that could earn him the trust of NBA coaches early in his career.
Defensively, Jones is active and engaged on the ball. He uses his chest well to body up drivers, and he’s got above-average position strength. However, his lack of foot speed can hurt him, and he’s not amazing at avoiding screens. If an opposing ball handler is able to create some separation, Jones isn’t athletic enough to close gaps and erase his mistakes. Off-ball, he does a good job of being vocal and understanding help principles. Effort and IQ give him a stable defensive floor, but his upside is probably capped at slightly above average.
Given his physical limitations and age (he turns 24 in February), Jones is a low-ceiling prospect. The passing improvements he made as a senior give him a chance to be a capable backup point guard, especially if he is paired with a ball-dominant wing or big that allows him to regain his three-point efficiency. However, Jones’ overall skill profile is more good than great, and that makes it difficult to bet on an older player who doesn’t have athleticism on his side.
Projected NBA Role: G-League/Two-Way
NBA Upside: Quality Reserve
Mark Sears / Alabama
Height/Wingspan: 6’0” / 6’2”
Rookie Season Age: 23
Player Type: Versatile Shooter / Pick-and-Roll Operator
Game Reminds Me Of: Mike James / Chris Chiozza
Sears is one of the most decorated college basketball players of the last decade, earning consensus All-American honors in each of the past two seasons. He spent two years at Ohio before transferring to Alabama in 2022, where he helped spearhead the Crimson Tide’s emergence as a perennial contender in the SEC.
Sears was exceptionally efficient as a scorer in ‘23-24, posting 66.4% true shooting while converting on 43.6% of his threes. Those numbers took a dip in ‘24-25, as his overall field goal percentage dropped from 50.6% to 40.3% and his true shooting fell to 57.1%. Even if ‘23-24 turns out to be an outlier season, Sears remains a weapon as an outside shooter. He’s got very deep range, and he aggressively hunts shots off both the catch and the dribble. He also shows above-average footwork as a driver, and he’s proficient at reading ball screens and manipulating driving angles. He’s strong, which allows him to absorb and spin off contact, and he drew fouls at a solid clip (16.9% FTAr) at Alabama. However, he’s very undersized and a good-but-not-great athlete. He can get swallowed up by length and athleticism at the basket: His 0.98 points per shot attempt at the rim ranked in the 19th percentile in Division I. He’ll need to take a step up as a foul-drawer and from floater range to be effective inside the arc in the NBA.
With his size limitations, Sears can’t afford to shoot 29.3% on off-dribble threes like he did this past season. He has to be at the level he was in ‘23-24 (35.6%) to force defenses into overextending to take away his shot, thus opening up the rest of the floor. I have no doubts that Sears will make shots off the catch, but his ability to create threes for himself and convert them efficiently will determine his NBA viability.
Sears’ numbers as a passer (20.8% assist rate, 5.7 assists per 36 minutes) are solid but unspectacular. He mostly makes the right reads out of pick-and-roll and attacking closeouts, but he’s not a dynamic playmaker who can dissect a defense with his vision. He also struggles to throw passes with his right hand, and his size limits his ability to see the entirety of the floor when he’s driving to the rim. Sears takes care of the ball and generally hits the open man, but his playmaking isn’t a standout trait in comparison to NBA point guards.
Sears has a solid basketball IQ and he’s willing to work on the defensive end, but he’s again limited by his lack of height and length. He can be overpowered around the rim, and shot over the top of on the perimeter. He’s not going to get blown by at the point of attack, especially in isolation, but he’s not a true difference maker on the ball either. Because he’s a one-position defender who will struggle when switched onto bigger ball handlers, it’s hard to see Sears being a plus on the defensive end.
If you really squint, it’s possible to see some Jalen Brunson/Kyle Lowry/Fred VanVleet in Sears’ game. However, the areas where those undersized guards truly separate themselves (footwork, passing, point of attack defense) are areas where Sears is good, but not elite. I believe the most likely outcome for Sears is that he stars in Europe for a solid ten-year stretch. At the same time, it wouldn’t shock me if he carves out a role as a steady backup with shooting as a carrying tool.
Projected NBA Role: G-League/Two-Way
NBA Upside: Quality Reserve
Ryan Nembhard / Gonzaga
Height/Wingspan: 6’0” / 6’2”
Rookie Season Age: 22
Player Type: Floor General
Game Reminds Me Of: Tre Jones / Cory Joseph
The younger brother of Pacers’ guard Andrew Nembhard, Ryan led Division I in assists this past season and was named First Team All-WCC. He’s an old-school, pass-first point guard with an excellent understanding of how to play the game, but size and athleticism are going to be working against him in the NBA.
Nembhard’s scoring usage (17.0%) is the lowest of any on-ball guard prospect I profiled by a sizable margin, and there are times watching him play where it seems like he’s purposely avoiding the basket. He’s got a tight handle that allows him to get where he needs to be on the court, but he’s not particularly dynamic or shifty. As a result, he doesn’t put much pressure on defenses as a driver: Just 29.1% of his field goal attempts came at the rim, and his free throw attempt rate (11.2%) is also uninspiring. Similarly to his brother, he wants to methodically work to his spots in the mid-range. 74.4% of Nembhard’s total jump shots came off the dribble, 97th percentile frequency among all Division I players.
Although Nembhard made 40.4% of his threes this past season, I’m not a huge believer in his shot. His release is low, and it takes him a while to get it off, which is part of why he’s such a low-volume shooter (2.8 three-point attempts per 36 minutes). Because of how much time he spends with the ball in his hands, his form actually looks more natural to me off the dribble, and he did convert on an impressive 36.7% of his off-dribble threes at Gonzaga. Ultimately, though, I don’t think he’s dynamic enough to command consistent on-ball reps in the NBA, and I worry that he’ll be a guy whom defenses can sag off of when he’s spotting up.
Passing is obviously Nembhard’s standout skill. When factoring in assists, his 1.54 points per possession ranked in the 99th percentile in Division I. His 4.06 assist to turnover ratio is spectacular, and his 54.4% assist rate in transition shows the boost he could provide to a team’s tempo and pace. Nembhard is an excellent post entry passer, which is somewhat of a lost art in today’s NBA, and he’s got a great feel for stringing out the opposing big in pick-and-roll, forcing him to commit to the ball to open up passing angles.
Nembhard is a high-IQ defender, and he has quick hands (1.8 steals per 36 minutes). However, his effectiveness is limited by his lack of size and athleticism. He’s easily overpowered near the rim, and he’s not quite quick enough to be a lockdown guy at the point of attack.
With his basketball intelligence, Nembhard is the type of player who is a good bet to overcome his physical limitations. However, he’s going to have to prove the ability to score at some level, or he’s not going to get enough respect from NBA defenses to unlock his playmaking. If he was big enough to defend both guard spots, I’d be more optimistic about his NBA chances. However, given my concerns with his size, shooting and shot creation, I think he profiles as a very late second-rounder at best, and more likely a priority two-way target.
ON-BALL GUARD RANKINGS SUMMARY:
