Offseason Primer: Atlanta Hawks
Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
Atlanta’s Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $200M
Practical Cap Space: $-59M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $-32M
Possible Financial Avenues:
With an active roster charge of $163M, and a ~$12M cap hold for the #1 overall pick on their books, Atlanta currently projects to be slightly above the $171M luxury tax line. That’s obviously completely unacceptable for a team of this caliber, so the Hawks are unquestionably going to be looking to dump salary in some form or fashion.
Bottom Line:
The Hawks need to get cheaper, and no one on their current roster, other than maybe Jalen Johnson, should be considered completely off-limits in trade. Theoretically, Atlanta could shed a ton of salary if they found a buyer willing and able to take one of their larger salaries (Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela) without sending back any players in return. More likely, the Hawks will find a way to make marginal salary subtractions that get them under the luxury tax, but aren’t enough to allow them to access the full Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception.
Organizational Direction:
The Hawks are in a tricky spot. Two straight mediocre seasons have clearly shown them that their current roster isn’t anywhere close to contention, and after lottery luck netted them the #1 pick in this year’s draft, I’m sure they’d love to initiate a rebuild. However, Atlanta owes their own first round picks to San Antonio in each of the next three drafts, meaning that if they decide to tear things down, they won’t reap the benefits.
As a result, the Hawks seem likely to be stuck in a strange transition period, where they try to acquire assets for the numerous capable veterans they have on their team, but still attempt to maintain some semblance of competitiveness. Keeping a foot in both lanes is a path that rarely bears fruit in the NBA, and more than likely, the full-on tank is coming for Atlanta at some point down the line. However, unless they can convince the Spurs to return the picks they are owed in exchange for either Trae Young or Dejounte Murray, there isn’t an obvious alternative available for the Hawks.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Nail the #1 Pick
Because of the draft capital they owe in the coming seasons, the 2024 draft might be Atlanta’s one and only shot to add an impact prospect. While this is considered to be a relatively weak draft, thus making the #1 pick less valuable than it might be in other years, every draft has quality players lying within. I have French forward Zaccharie Risacher as the #1 player on my big board, and he would be my selection if I were in charge of Atlanta’s front office. However, there are a number of players that could reasonably choose from: There is no consensus slam dunk prospect at the top of this draft. Whatever they do, the one thing I would caution against is prioritizing fit with their current roster. The Hawks should select whomever they have ranked as the best player, as high-level talent is what the organization needs above all else.
2) Maximize the trade return for their veterans
Much of the trade-rumor focus in Atlanta has been centered around Dejounte Murray and Trae Young, which makes sense given the stature of those two players. However, between Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter, the Hawks have three additional guys who appear to be candidates to get moved, and might even have more wide-ranging markets.
Trading Capela is probably Atlanta’s easiest pathway to clearing the salary they need to, as he’s set to make $22.2M this year before hitting unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2025. While Capela is overpaid on that deal by at least a few million, he’s still a reasonably capable starter, and the Hawks might be able to get back a second rounder or two for him, depending on how much money they are able to take back.
Bogdanovic should have legitimately positive value, as he’s one of the better bench shooters and scorers in the league, and he’s under team control at a reasonable figure through the ‘26-27 season. Hunter is a bit trickier to gauge, as he makes more than Bogdanovic and is underwhelming as a starter on the wing, but given how most teams are starved for forward-sized players who can shoot reasonably well, he might have a suitor or two out there as well.
As far as their star guards go, it’s difficult to tell just how in demand either one is around the league. Young is the better player, but he also makes more and is under contract for less time. Murray also might be a cleaner fit in a lot of places, as he is not as much of a defensive liability and doesn’t necessarily need to have the ball in his hands to be effective. If Atlanta can get multiple quality first-round picks for either player, it probably makes sense to move at least one of them. However, they don’t necessarily have to act this summer: They can take things into the season and hope that an underperforming team gets desperate.