Is This the End of the Golden State Warriors?
Following a relatively tumultuous 2022-23, I was optimistic about the Warriors’ chances of returning to contender status in 2023-24. Early on, that prediction looked sound: Golden State got off to a 6-2 start thanks in large part to a revamped bench unit led by their biggest offseason addition, Chris Paul.
Since that point, everything has gone downhill for the Dubs. They are 4-12 over their last 16 games, and their -2.9 net rating over that span ranks 21st in the NBA. The poor play came to an ugly head on Tuesday night in Phoenix: Draymond Green inexplicably slapped Suns’ center Jusuf Nurkic in the face, leading to an ejection and a subsequent indefinite suspension, and Steve Kerr benched starting wings Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins in the closing minutes. When asked about his lineup decisions following the game, Kerr referenced running out of patience with his veterans; a clear sign of the palpable urgency for wins.
The Warriors now sit at an organizational crossroads: Stephen Curry is still playing at an elite level, but between Green’s increasingly erratic behavior, Thompson’s general decline, and a lack of consistent play from the supporting cast, this team does not have the look of a top 6 seed in the West, let alone a championship contender. It’s clear that changes need to be made, but in what direction? Do General Manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. and the rest of the Warriors’ front office owe it to Curry to shop what assets they have left in pursuit of a major addition, or is this finally the time to rebuild? Golden State’s run over the last ten seasons has been nothing short of iconic, but a fairy tale ending may not be in store for this group.
The Warriors 2022 championship run has been characterized by many as the exclamation point of the Curry/Thompson/Green era, and for good reason: Those three have been the heart and soul of the Bay Area ever since the 2014 playoffs. However, it cannot be overlooked how important Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney were to the 2022 team’s success. When Golden State’s core three were joined on court by Wiggins and Looney throughout the 2022 playoffs, the Warriors completely demolished teams to the tune of a +17.1 net rating (Cleaning the Glass). Of course, Curry’s brilliance was a key driver of that unit’s success, but defense was the true calling card of that group (101.2 DRTG). Between Wiggins’ point of attack prowess and Looney’s rebounding and versatility, Golden State’s “other two” starters deserve their fair share of the credit for the dominance of that lineup.
Fast forward to 2023-24, and the numbers for the Warriors’ preferred starting five tell a completely different story. When the above players share the court, Golden State has a -8.0 net rating, and the defense has disappeared: The Warriors’ 119.1 DRTG during that group’s shared minutes ranks in the 22nd percentile among five man units that have played at least 100 possessions (Cleaning the Glass). What was once a strength is now a major liability, and it’s leading to losses.
The individual numbers for Wiggins in particular are extraordinarily rough. Despite his usage (22.5%) being in line with his previous three seasons in the Bay (22.6%), his scoring has dropped by over 5 points per game. As you might have guessed, this means his efficiency has completely tanked: His true shooting is down from 56.4% to 47.7%, and he’s making just 26.4% of his threes while attempting only 5.9 per 36 minutes (down from 8.9 in 2022-23). Golden State has been 16.9 points per 100 possessions worse when Wiggins is on the court, which puts him in the 4th percentile among all NBA players this season (Cleaning the Glass). Wiggins has been the first domino to fall: Following his benching in the closing minutes on Tuesday, Kerr removed him from the starting lineup on Thursday night against the Clippers.
For his part, Looney has not been much better. The Warriors are 8.8 points per 100 possessions worse on offense when he is on the court (Cleaning the Glass) and the eye test makes it pretty obvious to see why. He’s so limited at this point athletically that teams don’t respect his ability to be an effective finisher out of the pick and roll, clogging up many of Golden State’s actions. Looney is frequently caught in no man’s land: His 16.5% turnover rate is a career high. While Green is suspended, Looney’s spot in the starting lineup appears to be safe, but when Draymond returns I expect that to change. The Warriors offense is just too limited to survive playing Green and Looney simultaneously.
Among the Curry/Thompson/Green triumvirate, it’s Draymond who is currently garnering the most negative attention. Deservedly so: Green is serving his second suspension of the season, and while he’s made a career out of testing the boundaries, none would argue that his antics this season have not been detrimental to the team. However, when Green has played, he’s been mostly pretty good, and he’s still by far the best defensive player on the team. Maybe Draymond has completely lost control of his emotions for good this time, but we’ve seen him pull himself out of self-created chaos before.
The bigger issue for the Warriors? They have a Klay Thompson problem. There have been subtle signs of decline in Thompson’s game ever since he tore his achilles prior to the ‘20-21 season, but this season is a whole new territory. Forget about All-Star or All-NBA, his play so far brings legitimate questions about his viability as a starter.
Obviously, jump shooting has always been the hallmark of Thompson’s game. Even in his best years, he never made his living attacking the rim or getting to the free throw line. However, just 2.9% of Thompson’s field goal attempts this season have come from within three feet of the basket; from 2014-15 through 2018-19 that number never dipped below 12.1%. It’s led to inefficiency from inside the arc, where Thompson’s 40.1% FG on two-pointers is the lowest mark of his career.
In peak three-point shooting years for Klay, his inability to generate easy buckets at the rim might not have been so impactful. No longer: Thompson’s 36.4% 3FG on 9.6 3PA per 36 minutes is nothing to sneeze at, but those are no longer the world-beating marks he posted even as recently as last season (41.2% 3FG on 11.5 3PA per 36). This version of Klay is incapable of providing the secondary scoring the Warriors so desperately need: His usage is down to 22.5%, his true shooting sits at a below-average 55.5%, and he’s turning the ball over at his highest rate since his rookie season (11.5% of his possessions).
The underlying tension of Thompson’s struggles is his contractual status, as he will be an unrestricted free agent at year’s end. Currently making $43.2 million, probably not even Klay would argue that he deserves another max contract as he reaches his mid-30s. However, he’s a prideful player, and he must on some level feel that the Warriors should do right by him, the same way they did for Green by handing him a brand new 4 year, $100 million deal over the summer. Recent reports indicate that Thompson rejected a 2 year, $48 million extension offer, and one has to wonder if the uncertainty of his future is weighing heavily on him. It has the makings of a pressure cooker on the verge of exploding, especially if Kerr continues to turn in a different direction to close games.
Unfortunately for Thompson (and Wiggins and Looney), but fortunately for the Warriors, they are not devoid of alternative options. There is a trio of players on rookie contracts currently coming off the bench who have all flashed signs of promise: Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski and Moses Moody.
Kuminga provides a burst of athleticism as a frontcourt partner with Green that Looney simply does not. He’s finishing 70.9% of his looks at the rim, and despite being 7th on the team in minutes played, he’s got more than double the amount of dunks of any other Warrior. Golden State has a +3.7 net rating with Kuminga on court, which is 6.4 points per 100 possessions better than when he sits (Cleaning the Glass).
With his strength, intelligence and competitiveness, Moody has been a far better defensive option on the wing than Wiggins in 2023-24. Golden State allows 3.1 points per 100 possessions less on defense with Moody on court than off, and he also provides more consistent floor spacing on the offensive end (35.5% 3FG on 6.0 3PA per 36 minutes).
Podziemski has been one of the few true bright spots in this otherwise dismal Warriors’ season. He’s making 41.3% of his threes, and he’s averaging 8.7 rebounds and 4.2 assists per 36 minutes. The Warriors have been 12.3 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor this season, which ranks in the 91st percentile among all players (Cleaning the Glass).
Kerr is faced with an impossible question, one that will undoubtedly pull on his philosophical heartstrings. How much does he “owe” to the old guard, especially Thompson? What about the duty of the front office to Curry? Should they allow his dwindling prime to go to waste in order to build around their younger pieces? Is it possible that the young pieces are the answer even in the short-term, and it’s the veterans who need to be jettisoned for whatever is available?
From where I sit, it’s hard to see a future where the Warriors are holding up the Larry O’Brien trophy in June. There are some quality players who might hit the trade block over the next couple months (Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Pascal Siakam, O.G. Anunoby), but none whose addition would obviously launch the Warriors into championship contention. In truth, between Thompson’s struggles and Green’s lunacy, there’s not much of an argument for why this veteran core deserves to be doubled down on.
It seems that lineup shifts are finally occurring, so we’ll see if that can provide the jolt Golden State needs to get back into the playoff picture. Curry is still playing at a level where he can carry a team for weeks at a time, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Golden State get hot at some point in the next month or so. But on a broader scale, this feels like the end of the dynasty. If that does prove to be the case, this is a watershed moment in NBA history.
Sources:
Yahoo Sports (Ryan Young): Draymond Green Suspended
Yahoo Sports (Dalton Johnson): Kerr Losing Patience
https://sports.yahoo.com/why-kerr-losing-patience-starters-212512023.html
NBC Sports (Kurt Helin): Thompson Extension Offer