2025 Draft Ranks: On-Ball Guards, Tier 3
The Basketball Notebook is back for the 2025 NBA draft. Over the course of the next month, I’ll be releasing tiered rankings by position, culminating in a final overall big board in mid to late June.
Click here for a few important reminders about how I structure my rankings and write-ups.
Click here for Tier 1 of the on-ball guard ranks, click here for Tier 2.
TIER 3:
1. Walter Clayton Jr. / Florida
Height/Wingspan: 6’3” / 6’4”
Rookie Season Age: 22
Player Type: Movement Shooter
Game Reminds Me Of: Coby White / Seth Curry
March Madness viewers will be familiar with Clayton Jr., as he led Florida to the national title and was awarded as the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player. Clayton Jr. was excellent in regular season play as well, earning consensus First Team All-American honors and being named a Wooden Award Finalist. He might be the best shooter in the draft, and he brings both a polished game and a pro-ready body.
As soon as he crosses half court, Clayton Jr. is a threat to score. He hunts threes off both the catch and the dribble, and he has a quick release that allows him to get his shot off without much time or space. At 200 lbs., Clayton Jr. is hard to knock off balance and he does a good job of keeping himself square to the basket. Overall, he shot 38.6% from three on 8.6 attempts per 36 minutes. More impressively, Clayton shot 36.9% on 195 three-point attempts off the dribble: His 1.07 points per shot on off-dribble jumpers ranked in the 89th percentile among all players in Division I. I have zero doubts about his shooting ability translating to the NBA, and I expect it to continue to be his carrying tool at the next level.
Clayton Jr. is not an explosive lateral mover with the ball in his hands, which limits his ability to beat defenders off the dribble. Just 26.2% of his field goal attempts came at the rim, and he doesn’t get fouled much either (10.9% free-throw attempt rate). When Clayton Jr. is able to create separation, it’s usually due to defenders overreacting to the threat of his jumper. However, when he’s going up against NBA rim protection, I worry about his ability to consistently score in the paint. Clayton Jr. has flashed the ability to weaponize off-ball screens and handoffs to create separation, and I think his usage will need to shift even further in that direction in the NBA.
Clayton Jr. is not a traditional point guard in the sense that he’s not going to dice up a defense out of pick-and-roll as a passer. He is capable of bringing the ball up against pressure and making basic reads, but I don’t expect him to regularly create great looks for his teammates. One area where he is pretty proficient is as a lob-thrower out of down screens, which allows him to punish teams for putting two on the ball to defend his shot.
Defensively, Clayton Jr. has short arms and he plays far too upright. He’s not a good screen navigator, and his effort waxes and wanes both on and off the ball. His strength keeps him from being physically overpowered, but his lack of length probably limits his ability to guard bigger players. I think a lightened offensive load will allow him to dedicate more effort to defense, but his ceiling is limited.
Players who can make threes off the dribble are a valuable commodity in the NBA, and Clayton Jr. can definitely do that. For teams that utilize more passing and off-ball movement and/or have a lead offensive engine somewhere other than point guard, he should have a lot of appeal.
Projected NBA Role: Quality Reserve
NBA Upside: High-End Reserve
2. Javon Small / West Virginia
Height/Wingspan: 6’2” / 6’5”
Rookie Season Age: 23
Player Type: Floor General / Point of Attack Defender
Game Reminds Me Of: Delon Wright / Ayo Dosunmu
Small had an itinerant college career, spending two years at East Carolina and one at Oklahoma State before his most recent season with West Virginia. He was named First Team All-Big 12 in ‘24-25 after leading the Mountaineers in both scoring and assists.
With a 40.5” max vertical leap, Small is an above-average athlete who is capable of playing above the rim off of two feet. He was able to be fairly efficient (57.6% true shooting) on high usage (28.2%), impressive given that he had middling talent around him at West Virginia. Small’s athleticism works both for and against him as a driver: He can finish over bigger defenders and draws fouls at a decent clip (13.3% FTAr), but he only really knows how to attack at one speed. Although he has a quick first step, he’s not the most dynamic player off the dribble because he doesn’t have amazing touch or feel with floaters and runners. His handle is also a little bit loose when he goes to make his moves, as his body often seems to be moving faster than the ball.
Small’s numbers as a shooter are rock solid. He made 35.3% of his threes at high volume (7.3 attempts per 36 minutes), and that’s with over 60% of his three-point attempts coming off the dribble. He shot 38.9% on 90 catch-and-shoot attempts, and he even showed flashes of being able to make shots coming off down screens and flare screens away from the ball. Off the dribble, Small’s release is low and a bit mechanical, which makes me question how effectively he’ll be able to create good looks for himself. However, I expect him to command respect when he’s off the ball.
Despite not being a huge threat getting all the way to the basket, Small is an effective pick-and-roll operator. He limits his turnovers (14.1%) and does a good job of timing feeds to his bigs. He also consistently surprises defenses with his interior bounce passing, which allows him to exploit unusual angles. I don’t think Small is a dynamic enough scorer off the dribble to be the primary driver of NBA offense, but he can be a capable second-unit steward who also makes good decisions attacking closeouts.
Defense is probably going to be Small’s calling card if he makes it in the NBA. He allowed 0.52 points per possession as a pick-and-roll defender this past season, which ranked in the 92nd percentile amongst all Division I players. He also scored very well in the agility portions of NBA combine testing and he’s too strong to be easily knocked off his spot. He has an above-average feel for getting over the top of screens, which is a non-negotiable part of on-ball defense in the NBA. He can lose engagement away from the play and he doesn’t have amazing help instincts, but at his size his primary role is going to be at the point of attack.
Three-and-D wings have been in vogue for quite some time now, but I think players like Cason Wallace and Andrew Nembhard have really shown the value of three-and-D guards in recent seasons. If Small can make enough shots to play off the ball on offense while tackling primary on-ball defensive assignments, he’ll carve out a role in the league.
Projected NBA Role: Rotational Reserve
NBA Upside: High-End Reserve
3. Ben Saraf / Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)
Height/Wingspan: 6’5” / 6’7” (Unofficial)
Rookie Season Age: 19
Player Type: Pass-First Playmaker
Game Reminds Me Of: Ty Jerome / Vasilije Micić / Josh Giddey
Although his home country is Israel, Saraf has spent the ‘24-25 season with Ulm, one of the best teams in Germany’s Basketball Bundesliga. Ulm has a history with NBA guards, as Killian Hayes (Pistons) and Juan Nunez (Spurs) are both recent draftees who have played for the club. Saraf has above-average positional size and shows flashes of playmaking brilliance, but he also has some rough edges to his game that make me question his long-term NBA viability.
Saraf doesn’t have a true standout skill as a scorer, which has led to a relatively inefficient (53.3% true shooting) output. He’s comfortable with the ball in his hands, but he’s not particularly explosive off the dribble, nor is he a graceful athlete. His size is definitely an asset, and he uses it to overpower smaller defenders when he can back his way to the basket. However, he struggles to finish over length, and he’s not quick enough to blow by his man and get to the rim before the defense can rotate to him.
Saraf shoots a set shot with a slow, mechanical release. He’s effective with it off the catch (39.3% 3FG), but he needs to overhaul his form to be a threat off the dribble. He’s shot just 19.3% on off-dribble threes this season, and he’s only slightly more effective from inside the arc (39.5%). Without the athletic burst to create significant separation off the bounce, it’s difficult to envision Saraf’s jumper producing much scoring utility outside of the occasional catch-and-shoot opportunity.
If Saraf succeeds in the NBA, it will be because of his playmaking ability: He’s averaging 6.6 assists per 36 minutes with Ulm. He’s a creative passer who can find his teammates from a variety of different angles, and he has enough size to see over the top of the defense in both the half court and transition. He’s still adjusting to the speed of professional basketball which can lead to turnovers (4.1 per 36 minutes), but there’s no doubt that his vision and passing instincts are real. My main concern is that Saraf won’t be enough of a scoring threat to consistently draw attention from multiple defenders, muting his ability to create shots for his teammates.
Despite below-average athleticism, Saraf competes on the defensive end. He also anticipates the game well when he’s off the ball, which is the main reason why he’s averaging 1.8 steals per 36 minutes. On the ball, he’s willing to engage and play hard, but his lack of foot speed often leads to silly fouls. I expect Saraf to struggle with the speed and quickness of NBA point guards, but his size might allow him to survive on the wing and avoid being a true liability.
I could envision a world where Saraf is a capable second-unit steward who really helps an offense in need of supplementary playmaking, particularly if he has the right mix of shooting and defense around him. However, it’s hard to see how he becomes a dynamic scorer and I don’t expect him to be an asset off the ball in a complementary role. Saraf has potential because he’s still young enough for significant development in the areas of his game that need improvement, but his floor is definitely lower than the other two players in this tier.
Projected NBA Role: Rotational Reserve
NBA Upside: Quality Reserve