Statistical Deep Dive: LA Clippers Offense
The Clippers traded for one of the best offensive players of all time, and their scoring immediately fell off a cliff - what’s going wrong for LA?
When the Clippers finally pulled the trigger to acquire James Harden from Philadelphia, it was natural to expect that there would be some growing pains while Harden and the Clippers stars grew accustomed to playing with one another. However, LA’s offense has not just been sluggish since making the move – it’s been downright horrific. With as much talent as the Clippers have, it’s difficult to believe that their play won’t improve, but will they be able to fully bridge the massive delta between where they currently stand and where they will need to reach to be a serious contender? For this week’s deep dive, let’s take a look into the numbers and see if we can determine what’s ailing LA since James Harden’s arrival – and whether it can be fixed.
In their 5 games prior to acquiring Harden, LA was off to a really strong start scoring the ball - their 117.4 ORTG ranked 4th in the NBA. In 6 games with Harden, that number has fallen to 107.9, which ranks 27th. With the eye test, the first thing that’s immediately apparent is how stagnant LA’s offense appears. With four players (Harden, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Russell Westbrook) who have typically dominated the ball in their careers now sharing the court together, this was probably to be expected. For the season, the Clippers rank #1 in the percentage of their possessions that result in isolations (11.4%), and their passes per game (237.0) is 30th in the NBA - over 12 passes per game lower than 29th ranked Houston. In a vacuum, an isolation heavy offense is not necessarily a death sentence, especially considering that Harden and Leonard in particular have long excelled in that style. However, iso ball becomes a lot easier for the opposition to guard when the floor is not adequately spaced and the defense can load up to help the primary defender. The fact that the Clippers are spending so much time with non-shooters like Westbrook and Ivica Zubac on the court next to their on-ball stars is making it extremely difficult for them to generate efficient shots.
When Harden has been most effective in his career, he has been able to collapse defenses by beating defenders one on one, which allows him to set up his teammates for open threes and layups. However, since the Harden trade, the Clippers are averaging 19.0 catch and shoot 3pt. attempts per game, which ranks 29th out of 30 teams. Even beyond Westbrook and his well-documented struggles as a floor spacer, LA does not have the adequate personnel to maximize Harden. Of the other support players in the Clippers’ current rotation, only Norman Powell is averaging over 6 three point attempts per 36 minutes. By contrast, when Harden was the league MVP in 2017-18, his Houston Rockets had five rotation members who achieved that stat. It’s possible that George and Leonard, who are both excellent shooters, could step in and pick up some of this slack, but in theory those are LA’s two best players - asking them to fill off-ball roles just to accommodate Harden may have diminishing returns. Other than free throw attempt rate, where the Clippers rank a respectable 11th, LA has really struggled to generate the easy buckets that typically lead to efficient offense. As is typical of Harden-led teams, they play at a glacial pace (25th out of 30). Additionally, they are attempting the fourth-fewest shots from within 5 feet of the basket (24.8 fga) per game and also converting at the 4th-worst rate from that range (57.7%). Unsurprisingly, this combination of not generating good looks from three, not getting to the rim, and never attacking unorganized defenses in transition is tanking their effective field goal percentage - they have plummeted from 59.0% (2nd) pre-trade to 50.9% (27th) post-trade.
By moving Westbrook to a bench role in their most recent game against the Rockets on Friday night, the Clippers have already made the first obvious adjustment available to them. Playing Powell and Terance Mann more minutes at least gives the Clippers a couple options on the wing who are used to moving off the ball and playing a complementary role. Once he gets a few more games under his belt and fully works his way into shape, I expect Harden to play better on an individual level as well. However, with Harden, the Clips were hoping to create an offense so explosive that they could turn playoff series with the likes of Denver and Phoenix into shootouts and win. In my view, the only way that vision becomes reality is if the addition of Harden enhances the productivity of Leonard and George, which to this point has not been the case. Since the trade, Leonard is averaging nearly 4 fewer points and nearly 3 fewer field goal attempts per game, while George has seen his per game scoring drop by nearly 9 points despite averaging more minutes. With the Clippers’ lack of ball movement and lack of shooting, I just don’t see the whole of this team being greater than the sum of its parts. If I’m proven correct, it may be a disappointing end to a disappointing era for LA, given that all three of Leonard, George and Harden could be free agents at season’s end.