TIER 6: REBUILDING
In a typical year, I would be less kind and title this tier “tanking.” However, I don’t think that accurately describes the state of the majority of tier 6 teams this season. No question, each of these teams is playing for the future. However, each team in this tier either has legitimate building blocks already in place, established NBA players who can positively contribute to winning, or some combination of both. There will be real pathways for growth and development in tier 6 this season, and each of these teams has some reason for their fans to be excited to watch, even this year.
All that nicety out of the way, let’s be clear - come trade deadline season, tier 6 teams are in a race to the bottom of the league. Any veterans on expiring contracts who can fetch a decent return in trade should be moved, and players with any type of nagging injury should get a head start on the offseason. Nonetheless, through the meat of the year, there are plenty of reasons to watch tier 6. Rebuilds are hopeful, and young players in the NBA typically represent an entertaining roller coaster.
*For a refresher on the the layout of this season preview series, click here
**All stats courtesy of basketballreference.com or NBA.com unless stated otherwise
CHARLOTTE HORNETS
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is expected to miss start of season due to injury/suspension/other*
Team Overview: Organizational Stink
Because of a 2022-23 season which saw Charlotte fail to be competitive at any point (6-14 through the season's first 2 months on their way to a 27-55 record overall), it is easy to forget that the 2021-22 Hornets were a 43 win, competent NBA team. Unfortunately for the Hornets, one of the biggest reasons for their successful ‘21-22 campaign might have been the biggest reason for their ‘22-’23 demise - embattled forward Miles Bridges. Bridges broke out in ‘21-22, taking over as a full-time starter after coming off the bench the year prior, and averaging over 20 points per game. In the summer of 2022, Bridges was set to get paid handsomely in restricted free agency as the second piece of Charlotte’s core alongside LaMelo Ball. However, the day before free agency opened, Bridges was arrested and charged with felony domestic abuse in an abhorrent case where he was accused of beating his girlfriend and mother of his children (New York Times). Bridges would go on to plead no contest to the charges in November, and he was left unsigned and away from the team for the entirety of the 2022-23 season. Rightfully so, the Bridges situation drew a ton of attention and cast a negative shadow over the entire year for the Hornets. Heading into this past summer, Charlotte still held Bridges’ rights as a restricted free agent, and reportedly drew a hard line in contract negotiations. Bridges ended up accepting his 1 year qualifying offer worth just under $8 million, and was set to rejoin the team following the remainder of his suspension, which would have run the first 10 games of this year. However, on October 13, news broke that Bridges had turned himself in to the Charlotte police on a separate domestic violence warrant, once again containing extremely disturbing details (Sporting News). While the NBA, by the terms of the collectively bargained agreement with the Players Union, is not allowed to take action against Bridges until the legal process is played out in court, the Hornets will surely waive Bridges if there is any shred of truth to these new allegations. In my view, Bridges deserves no benefit of the doubt as an alleged repeat offender, and should have been on a zero-tolerance policy before the news of a separate warrant came to light. Now that it has, the fact that they have not at least placed Bridges on administrative leave (at the time of this writing) is frankly shocking, and unless there are some extenuating circumstances that the public is not currently privy to, an organizational failure.
Notable Offseason Move: Fit Over Talent?
Rewarded for their poor performance in 2022-23 with the #2 overall pick in the 2023 draft, Charlotte was faced with an interesting dilemma. The consensus (although not unanimous) second-ranked prospect heading into the draft was point guard Scoot Henderson - potentially a problem for the Hornets considering the one piece they have locked in on their team is point guard LaMelo Ball. Charlotte had a few choices, namely,
1) Prioritize talent over fit and draft Henderson
2) Select a different player at #2 (in this case, forward Brandon Miller)
3) Try and trade down from #2 in order to collect additional capital while still selecting Miller or another piece later in the draft
Ironically, it may have been a choice similar to this that led to the Hornets getting Ball on their team in the first place. In 2020, Charlotte had the #3 overall selection and had Ball fall to them after the Golden State Warriors selected center James Wiseman at #2, at least partially due to Ball’s perceived overlap with incumbent guards Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Just like the Warriors, the Hornets chose to prioritize fit next to their established star and selected Miller. Miller is a solid prospect in his own right who should be a good to very good NBA player, and it’s possible that Charlotte either could not find an adequate trade partner at #2 or just had Miller rated more highly than Henderson. However, I can’t help but feel like Charlotte left some value on the table and will regret their choice at some point down the line. For an organization sorely lacking in high-level talent and a long way off from having a contending roster, I believe the Hornets should be much more focused on asset accumulation than the exact build of their team. As such, if Henderson does prove to be a better player than Miller, it will feel like a missed opportunity for Charlotte, even if that opportunity missed is not having Henderson on their team, but rather the players or picks he would have brought back to them via draft night trade.
One Big Question: Miller’s Upside
One way to quickly make my questioning of Charlotte’s draft day strategy in the above paragraph look foolish would be for Brandon Miller to become the All-Star the Hornets are banking on him being. It’s by no means ridiculous to think he might be - Miller has a rare combination of size (6’9”) and shooting ability (38.4% 3fg on 7.5 attempts per game in his freshman season at Alabama) that makes him a very intriguing prospect. Miller was extremely productive in his lone college season as the best player on one of the best teams in the country, and even if he never becomes a star, his game and physical profile provides a safe and still valuable floor as a 3&D role player. Miller’s biggest question marks come around the basket, as he really struggled finishing at the rim in college. He lacks explosion as a leaper, and he also needs to work on his footwork and finesse in order to improve his touch. Right now, Miller is most comfortable working to his jump shot even when he’s inside the arc, which is a very difficult way to consistently produce efficient offense. While his height allows him to get his shot off in almost every situation, his lack of athletic pop with his first step or as a driver once he gets in the paint may end up putting a ceiling on his effectiveness as a primary or even secondary option on the ball. Miller’s development is crucial for Charlotte - they desperately need another All-Star caliber player to emerge long term next to Ball in order to give them even a playoff-worthy core. How quickly Miller can establish himself in a fairly crowded Hornets frontcourt, and whether or not he is showing signs of a more diverse scoring repertoire are two key questions I will be monitoring when I watch Charlotte this year.
One Area I’m Sure: LaMelo’s Ball
In comparison to 2021-22, which saw LaMelo Ball earn his first All-Star nod and establish himself as the lead playmaking force of the Hornets, 2022-23 was far less successful. Ankle injuries limited Ball to just 36 games, and Charlotte sank to 27 wins, second worst in the Eastern conference. Despite his poor health, Charlotte reaffirmed their faith in Ball by signing him to a 5 year contract extension this past summer worth up to $260 million, signifying that Ball still features heavily in their plans. Perhaps even more telling than the extension agreement were Charlotte’s draft day actions a few weeks prior, when they passed on highly regarded point guard prospect Scoot Henderson at pick #2 overall in favor of forward Brandon Miller, who on paper represents a cleaner fit next to Ball. Although their actions make me sure that they believe Ball to be their franchise centerpiece, whether or not LaMelo is worthy of such organizational deference is still an open question. His passing, specifically in transition, is unquestionably elite - Ball’s ability to hit teammates in stride with either hand from anywhere on the court is incredible to watch. However, he has struggled as a finisher at the rim and he rarely gets to the free throw line (3.3 FTA per game for his career), both of which limit how much extra defensive attention he requires in the half-court. If he can’t present defenses with a scoring presence that commands their respect, his ability to set up open teammates as a result of his rim attacks is at least partially nullified. While his struggles from two point range have been persistent throughout his career, 2022-23 did see Ball lean into one possible countermove - upping his 3pt. volume to a whopping 10.6 3PA per game while maintaining a respectable 37.6% conversion rate. If Ball can continue to develop as a major weapon from outside, he can draw the type of defensive attention that might allow him to pilot an efficient offense despite his struggles in other areas. Charlotte is banking on his ceiling being higher than what he’s shown so far, and whether or not he still has another level or two to reach will be crucial in determining their organizational upside.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Mark Williams
The 15th pick in the 2022 NBA draft after a stellar 2 year career at Duke, Mark Williams had a quiet rookie season due to an ankle injury that limited his playing time early last year. By the time Williams returned to the lineup, Charlotte’s season was already cooked, which made it easy for his play to fly under the national radar. This is not to say that Williams somehow performed at an All-Star level while no one was watching - he had his struggles adapting to the NBA just as the vast majority of young big men do. However, I was high on Williams going into the 2022 draft, and he showed enough last season that I still believe he will develop into a solid starter in the NBA. The first thing that stands out about Williams is his size and length - at 7’1” with a 7’6” wingspan, Williams is a massive presence around the rim with the ability to affect and alter shots from a variety of angles. He needs to continue to get stronger, but he already has a pretty solid frame for a 22 year old and he runs the floor well, frequently beating other bigs down the court. Williams does not have much of a back to the basket game, and his hands and feet are a bit awkward on the offensive end, which can make him frustrating to watch as a finisher. However, as he gets more NBA repetitions, I expect the game will slow down considerably for him and he will start to look more and more natural on the court. As a lob partner out of pick and rolls and in transition for LaMelo Ball, Williams should be a nightly double-double threat, and if he continues to build his frame, he could become a real problem on the offensive glass as well. He already plays with consistent effort, so if his defensive awareness and instincts improve in year 2, his physical gifts should make him into an above-average rim protector with the potential to be much more. Williams may never be an All-Star, but with even modest progression in his game, he will be the type of innings-eating center that provides 25-30 minutes of quality play each game and really helps a team defensively.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 29-53 (FanDuel o/u 31.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 19th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 27th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 26th
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
Team Overview: The Wemby Era Begins
On the short list of the most successful organizations in sports through most of the first two decades this century, San Antonio finally took a step back from contention following Kawhi Leonard’s trade request in 2018. Over the past five years, the Spurs have slowly slid back to the pack and down the tier list, fading into the irrelevance of the NBA’s middle ground. Long averse to completely bottoming out, something spurred San Antonio to change course when they traded away their two best players, backcourt mates Derrick White and Dejounte Murray, in the span of about 4 months in 2022. It’s become clear that they were taking aim at the top of the 2023 draft, and whether its excellent strategy, excellent luck, or some combination of the two, the Spurs came away with the player largely considered to be the best draft prospect since LeBron James in 2003 - Victor Wembanyama. Wembanyama’s absurd combination of size (7’4”) and skill is legitimately mind-bending to watch. The fluidity of his movement at his height and his ability to contest shots and passes from such unusual angles leaves you constantly shaking your head in awe. An up-and-down summer league performance showed that Wemby may not come into the league and be an All-Star right away, as he will need to get stronger and seems likely to struggle with turnovers as a rookie. However, his talent on both ends of the court means the sky's the limit for his ceiling, and every effort the Spurs make from this point forward will be around maximizing his potential.
Notable Offseason Move: Preserving Future Spending Power
Armed with ample cap space and extra draft picks, there were some who thought San Antonio might be aggressive immediately in their roster building efforts around Wembanyama. The Spurs were loosely linked to a Damian Lillard deal, and reportedly considered making a run in restricted free agency at Lakers guard Austin Reaves. Ultimately, San Antonio was very quiet, instead using their monetary flexibility to absorb unwanted contracts from teams in exchange for future draft capital. While not the most exciting strategy, it's a prudent one and shows that the Spurs are realistic about the type of team they’ll field in 2023-24. The goal is for the rest of the roster to be hitting its apex at the same time Wembanyama is hitting his. Over and over, we’ve seen franchises with young stars make their moves for competitiveness too soon, blowing their chance at true title contention in exchange for an early playoff push. San Antonio’s organizational stability allows them the privilege of patience.
One Big Question: What’s the Ideal Roster Build Around Wembanyama?
One reason why holding off on any massive roster moves for the time being is beneficial is because nobody is entirely sure just how Wembanyama’s game will manifest in the NBA. Figuring out what style of talent to put around him in order to optimize his unique skill-set needs to be the focus of this season for the Spurs. Early on, it looks like they plan to play him at the 4, keeping him away from the physical toll of banging with an NBA center for the majority of his minutes. Is that the right move long term, or will his rim protection be good enough that it allows for a more perimeter oriented lineup next to him? What type of guards is he best served with - should San Antonio be looking for a pick and roll threat who can consistently find him going downhill as a roll man, or is Wemby good enough for the offense to run through him and the guards should be more catch and shoot oriented? These are just a couple examples, but they represent the type of questions San Antonio should be striving to answer this year as they experiment with different lineup constructions. Doing so will allow them to continue to seamlessly plug in pieces of the puzzle in years to come.
One Area I’m Sure: Re-Energized Pop
A 5-time NBA champion and 3-time Coach of the Year, Gregg Popovich is a living legend and already a member of the Basketball Hall of Fame. However, at 74 years old, he’s the NBA’s oldest head coach by ten years and through some down Spurs seasons, speculation ran rampant that his retirement was near. Whether due to the Spurs lottery luck or otherwise, this summer we learned how wrong that chatter was. On July 8th, Popovich inked a 5 year contract extension that reportedly makes him the highest paid coach in the league, proving just how committed the two sides are to each other (Sports Illustrated). Now that kicking off the Wembanyama era is the next chapter of Popovich’s career, I expect to see a renewed vigor on the Spurs sideline this season. Relatively untested by expectation in the past few seasons, I’m fascinated to see what Popovich does with his team now that the microscope is back on. For years the master of working with high-IQ, veteran-laden teams, Popovich has been forced to work with younger rosters and that won’t change this year. His relationship with Wembanyama and his renewed commitment for the long-term is one of the more intriguing subplots of the 2023-24 season.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Jeremy Sochan
A lottery pick out of Baylor just one year ago, Sochan has understandably fallen off the national radar now that Wembanyama resides with the Spurs. An extremely athletic forward who vacillates between frontcourt spots, Sochan steadily improved over the course of his rookie year, but it’s no longer obvious exactly where he fits in the rotation. Sochan’s greatest skills are his energy, defense and rebounding (fitting given his Dennis Rodman-esque hair stylings), but he has a long way to go in order to be any sort of threat as a jump shooter (Sporting News). Even still, Sochan is the type of player who just does enough things well on the basketball court that I expect him to eventually find a role where he thrives. Lineups where Sochan and Wembanyama play together in the frontcourt have the potential to be nightmarish for teams trying to attack the paint. While neither might be strong enough right now, eventually their combination of length, leaping ability and timing will lead to deflected passes and altered shots galore. After starting 53 of his 56 games at power forward in his rookie year, I expect Sochan to be asked to move all over the court as a sophomore. I’m betting that he has the right mentality to accept his assignments and still flourish, providing the Spurs with another young piece who is part of the long-term solution.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 27-55 (FanDuel o/u 28.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 28th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 26th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 27th
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
Team Overview: Turning the Page
In the rare circumstances where a truly special relationship is developed between player and city, it can be painful when the time comes for that bond to be broken. While both Portland and Damian Lillard fought that day off for as long as they could, the 2022-23 season and the events that followed this past summer finally signaled the end of a truly memorable era. The Trail Blazers deserve massive credit for how they handled the situation on multiple fronts - first, they stuck to their guns and drafted a potential star point guard with the #3 overall pick in Scoot Henderson, even though that meant for certain a turning of the page on Lillard. Next, they stayed patient in their quest to find a suitable trade partner, refusing to place Lillard’s preferences in his destination above the good of the team while also ensuring that the best player in franchise history was sent to an organization where he has a legitimate chance to win. As a result, Trail Blazer fans should be more excited for this era of basketball in Portland than they have been in years, as while the franchise may have lost the floor that a true superstar brings, they have also eliminated the ceiling that has been firmly attached to this team for at least the last 4 seasons. Don’t get me wrong, this may never work - Portland might never sniff another player as good as Damian Lillard and the Blazers might spend the next decade wandering in the wilderness of failed rebuilds. However, given how they are now situated, I’ll bet on the glass half full approach - the Trail Blazers are taking a calculated step back now in order to take a real leap forward in the future.
Notable Offseason Move: Asset Collection
When Lillard and his agent Aaron Goodwin decided to make public their preference that Dame end up in Miami, it had the potential to tank Portland’s negotiating leverage. With other teams wary of a potential Lillard hold out should they pursue him, it looked for a while like Miami could hold firm on their offer and the Blazers would have no choice but to eventually pull the trigger. Instead, Portland was able to get creative, involving both Phoenix and Milwaukee in the deal and pulling in assets from each - disgruntled former #1 pick Deandre Ayton from the Suns, and three years of draft control plus star guard Jrue Holiday from the Bucks. In Ayton, Portland gives their young guards a legitimate pick and roll threat to pair with, while also getting a look at a still highly talented player who could take his game to the next level in a new environment. The real prize, however, is what the Blazers got from the Bucks. Although just one pick and two pick swaps may seem light for a player of Lillard’s caliber, there are a few critical pieces to consider. First is the obvious - Portland was immediately able to flip Holiday to the Celtics, earning themselves two extra 1st round picks from Boston as well as another intriguing young big man in Robert Williams III. Second is pick quality - in 2027, when the first of Milwaukee’s pick swaps will come due, Milwaukee’s core around Giannis Antetokounmpo is likely to have aged out of being contender-worthy. Antetokounmpo himself will be entering his age 33 season, and may not even still be a Buck, as his current contract expires after the ‘25-’26 season. Over the years that those picks will be conveying, Portland may be hitting the prime of their next top team, and it's possible that they can turn those picks into more young talent or the ammunition needed to make a big trade.
One Big Question: Is Shaedon Sharpe a Star in the Making?
As difficult as it may be to part with a star player, stripping down a team and collecting future draft capital and financial flexibility is in many ways the easy part - turning picks and dollars into a viable franchise core is far more difficult. In Scoot Henderson, Portland has a pretty safe bet at a player who will be at the very least an above average starting point guard. Henderson has all the athletic tools an NBA team could dream of, and is as pro-ready as a point guard prospect can be, having been productive in each of the last two seasons while playing professionally with G-League Ignite. Portland’s 2022 1st round selection - #7 overall pick Shaedon Sharpe - has just as much if not more upside than Henderson, but also a much lower floor, which makes him a pivotal x-factor in the Blazers rebuild. Sharpe entered the 2022 draft as a relative unknown, as he spent 2021-22 enrolled at Kentucky and involved with the team, but not competing on the court. Considering he was thought of by many as a long-term project when the Blazers selected him, his rookie year in 2022-23 was extremely promising. Sharpe earned playing time immediately as a 19 year old, and flashed his preposterous athleticism around the rim in addition to a comfortable and confident looking shot both off the catch and off the dribble. He was a consistent member of the rotation throughout the season, but he really took off down the stretch when Portland was out of contention and put the ball in his hands, as he averaged 23.7 points and 4.1 assists per game in the final 10 games he played last year. Predictably given his lack of basketball experience, the finer points of the game were where Sharpe struggled the most as a rookie - he was frequently lost off-ball on the defensive end, and he had issues on the offensive end with shot selection and understanding how to play off the ball effectively. Sharpe’s skill level and athletic pop are unmistakable, it’s his ability to develop his feel for the game that will likely determine whether or not he can turn into a star. This season, Portland should be making sure to feed him all the reps he can handle in order to help him settle into the NBA game, and so the team can best understand what role they should project Sharpe for going forward.
One Area I’m Sure: Stay Committed to the Tank
Looking at this Portland roster on paper, it’s not that difficult to convince yourself that this team might not actually be that bad. Holdovers Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant are proven, quality NBA starters who have each played high level basketball for stretches of their respective careers. The Blazers big man duo of Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III should ensure them 48 minutes of somewhere between above-average and very good center play. If either or both of Henderson and Sharpe breakout as a star, it’s not crazy to think that Portland as currently constituted could be competitive in most games. However, there are a few notable flaws in this line of thinking. First is the depth at the forward spots, where no one other than Grant and Matisse Thybulle has any history of being a competent NBA player. Second, Damian Lillard's impact on last year’s team cannot go overlooked - he carried so much of the offensive load by himself and the team often cratered when he was off the floor. Regardless, even if Portland manages to be competitive over the season’s first few months and is hanging around the play-in, they cannot afford to lose sight of the bigger picture. Veterans like Grant and guard Malcolm Brogdon should be shopped at the deadline, and the Trail Blazers should spend the final weeks or more of the season jockeying for lottery position. Chasing regular season wins this year cannot be the priority, even if a few more than originally expected come early on - the focus has to remain on development and future flexibility.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Anfernee Simons
With all the hype that is going to surround Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe this season, it’s going to be very easy to lose sight of Portland’s “other” guard, Anfernee Simons. Now entering his 6th season, Simons is an excellent shooter and volume scorer who has improved his game each and every year he has been in the NBA. Last season, he stepped into a starting role full time and saw his per game scoring average leap from 17.3 points per game in 2021-22 to 21.1 in ‘22-23, while his efficiency stayed roughly the same (58.3% true shooting -> 58.1%). Simons’ greatest weapon is undoubtedly his three point shot, as he can shoot off the dribble and on the move with great range, and he’s unafraid to let it fly. He’s also capable of working to the mid-range out of pick and roll and has a nice floater game. The rub on Simons is similar to many players with his profile - he’s not a skilled enough passer to play point guard full time, but he’s not big enough to adequately defend at the 2. Simons may profile best in the long term as a scoring guard off the bench, the type of player who is consistently part of the 6th man of the year conversation. If Sharpe really breaks out, it will likely only be a matter of time before Simons is relegated to that role in Portland. However, Simons is just 24 years old, and he should start the year as the Blazers primary option on offense and their starting guard next to Henderson. He will have a chance to showcase that his game has taken another leap and that he is capable of breaking through that scorer-only mold. If he does, Portland will either have an incredibly exciting young backcourt trio or an attractive trade chip on their hands. Either one of those scenarios is good for the Blazers, which is all the more reason that they should showcase Simons and be patient in how they implement their most likely long-term backcourt pairing of Henderson and Sharpe.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 24-58 (FanDuel o/u 27.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 27th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 28th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 28th
DETROIT PISTONS
Projected Rotation:
Team Overview: Sorting Through the Clutter
From start to finish, 2022-23 was a lost year for the Detroit Pistons. After just 12 games, 2021 #1 overall pick and franchise centerpiece Cade Cunningham was lost for the season to a stress fracture in his left leg. Already at a major talent deficit, Detroit without Cunningham was completely non-competitive, suffering through a 17-win season that contained two separate 11-game losing streaks. Finally, at the end of all that misery, Detroit drew the short end of lottery luck when they fell to the #5 pick in the 2023 draft despite having the NBA’s worst record in 2022-23. Cunningham’s injury had cemented that the Pistons rebuild would be stuck in neutral for another season, but to not even be fully rewarded for their losing ways was another gut punch for an organization that has now had four consecutive seasons of 23 or fewer wins. Entering the offseason, the Pistons had spending power under the salary cap and there was some thought they might pursue a big free agent name. Instead, Detroit utilized their cap space to be a contract dumping ground, absorbing 3pt. specialist Joe Harris from Brooklyn and veteran point guard Monte Morris from Washington. Those two, along with holdovers Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks, should combine to bring a lot more stability to Detroit’s rotation in 2023-24, allowing the Pistons to properly evaluate their young talent. Detroit has a number of recent first round picks on the roster, most of whom have shown some flashes of production but none of whom have established themselves as no-doubt pieces of the Pistons core. This season will be about taking baby steps towards competitiveness while putting young players in positions to get an accurate read on who can step up and be part of the future in Detroit.
Notable Offseason Move: Resetting the Coaching Market
It’s not often that a team’s biggest offseason investment is outside of their roster, but that’s exactly what happened this past summer when the Pistons reached a 8 year (final two years team options) agreement worth over $13 million annually with Monty Williams to become their next head coach. Williams’ contract at the time of signing was easily the largest in the league, and while his time in Phoenix came to an unceremonious end, it’s not hard to see why Detroit was so dead-set on making Monty their lead man. When Williams first arrived on the scene in Phoenix in 2019, the franchise was floundering through a streak of 9 straight seasons without a playoff appearance, including 4 consecutive seasons of 24 or fewer wins. Phoenix had talent on the roster in the form of high-scoring wing Devin Booker and former #1 pick Deandre Ayton, but they lacked discipline and structure from top to bottom throughout the organization. In Williams’ first year as head coach, the Suns saw their win total improve from the previous season by 15 games, including a thrilling 8-0 run in the COVID bubble to close the year. Williams unlocked the best version of Booker and fellow first round selection Mikal Bridges, and Phoenix would go on to win over 50 games and reach the NBA finals in his second season at the helm. Williams’ strengths as a coach are his ability to bring structure and a defensive emphasis to young teams. In this way, he’s an ideal fit to lead the turnaround effort in Detroit. How Williams’ chooses to structure his rotation will be intriguing to monitor early in the year - will he play youngsters and prioritize development at all costs, or will he lean on his veterans to set the standard and make the Pistons’ prospects earn their time on the floor?
One Big Question: What Level of Star Can Cade Truly Be?
Cade Cunningham has seemingly been destined for stardom since his days at national prep powerhouse Montverde Academy, where he was the #1 ranked recruit in the country in the high school class of 2020. After a standout freshman season at Oklahoma State in which he was named a consensus All-American, Cunningham was the no-doubt #1 overall pick in the 2021 draft. Cunningham has arguably the most sought-after profile for modern NBA basketball - the on-ball scoring package and passing vision to project as a lead offensive engine combined with good size (6’6” 220 lbs.) and a pure shooting stroke that allows him to thrive off the ball as well. In his rookie season, Detroit piled as much on his plate as they could, allowing him to initiate a huge portion of their offensive actions. Cunningham predictably struggled with scoring efficiency and turnovers, but the flashes were tremendous - just the fact that he was passable in such an outsized role as a rookie was promising in and of itself. In his second year last year, the plan was for Cunningham to take a leap, but in his limited time on the court, he struggled to an underwhelming 49.2% true shooting mark. Granted, Cunningham was never healthy last year and his surrounding circumstances left a ton to be desired. This year, Monty Williams should design a more balanced offense and Cunningham’s teammates should provide him much more support. Ultimately though, the Pistons are banking on him not just being an All-Star, but the type of transcendent talent that can carry a franchise out of the depths of hell. Cunningham is off to a good start - he was reportedly one of the most impressive players at Team USA’s training camp while playing for the USA select team over the summer, and he’s fully healed from surgery on his leg. I’ll be locked in to how he looks in the early going for the Pistons to see if we are any closer to getting an answer to the big question hanging over Detroit - is Cunningham truly the franchise centerpiece or are they still on the hunt for that player?
One Area I’m Sure: The Big Man Battle Should be Clear
For a team stuck in a rebuild, acquiring once highly-touted prospects at their lowest value and giving them a second chance is a commendable strategy. The Pistons have done that twice in the past two seasons, trading for Marvin Bagley III (#2 overall pick in 2018) and James Wiseman (#2 overall pick in 2020) while giving up nothing more than 2nd round picks. Bagley packs a scoring punch around the rim, as he’s averaged double-digit points per game in each of his 5 NBA seasons, and Wiseman has such a preposterous physical profile (7’0”, 7’6”wingspan) that he is intriguing despite his lack of production to this point. There’s nothing wrong with rostering players such as these two and hoping to unlock some untapped potential, especially on a team that has no real designs of competing for the playoffs. However, the Pistons must not err on their internal assessments - Detroit has a pair of much more promising bigs in Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren, whose development should be the clear priority over Bagley and Wiseman. Whereas Bagley has struggled to find a positional fit due to his lack of shooting for a forward and lack of rim protection for a center, Stewart’s defensive versatility and improving 3pt. efficiency has allowed him to toggle between both positions effectively. While Wiseman’s physical potential has yet to translate on the court, Duren’s own impressive physical profile led to flashes of him excelling around the rim at both ends of the court last year in his rookie season. Detroit cannot afford to hold back Stewart and Duren by gifting minutes to their backups - any playing time that Bagley and Wiseman get this year must be definitively earned.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Isaiah Stewart
Affectionately nicknamed “beef stew” due to his chiseled frame and willingness to toss his body around in the paint, Isaiah Stewart is the type of player who is critical for transforming a broken organizational culture. Undersized for a traditional center at 6’8”, Stewart more than makes up for his lack of height with his remarkable strength and commendable nightly effort. Stewart is a terror on the glass, as he understands shot angles and is always willing to scrape and claw for positioning. In 2022-23, the Pistons asked Stewart to play more at power forward, and while it wasn’t a perfect fit, Stewart handled the task admirably. He’s athletic enough to move his feet on the perimeter, and his long arms allow him to recover even when his relative lack of foot speed gets him beat. On the offensive end, Stewart upped his 3pt. volume from 0.6 attempts to over 4 attempts per game, and while his efficiency wasn’t fantastic (32.7%), his shooting form is far from broken and the fact that he was even passable from outside in his first year being encouraged to expand his range is promising. As he enters his fourth season this year, Stewart should benefit greatly from Detroit's change in coaching and more coherent roster. Detroit smartly committed to him this summer on a very reasonable 4 year, $60 million extension that will keep him under team control through 2027-28, and I expect Monty Williams to rely heavily on Stewart to serve as the emotional tone-setter for the franchise.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 24-58 (FanDuel o/u 27.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 30th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 29th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 29th
WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Projected Rotation:
*Note - at the time of article release, WAS has 17 players under contract - they will need to waive two players prior to the beginning of the season*
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is expected to miss start of season due to injury/suspension/other*
Team Overview: Finally, a Rebuild
No organization is a better embodiment of the horrors of the NBA’s middle ground than the Washington Wizards. In the past five seasons, Washington has won 42% of their games and reached the playoffs one time, a 5-game gentleman’s sweep at the hands of the 76ers in 2021. In the past 5 drafts, Washington has drafted between 7th-15th each year, and their best selection from those drafts (Rui Hachimura) now plays for the Lakers. Rather than trading their veteran pieces and stocking up on draft assets for the future or, Washington has consistently stood pat, unable to maneuver their roster towards true contention and unwilling to forfeit the hope of the 8th seed. Finally, mercifully, this summer represented a change. Owner Ted Leonsis came to his senses and allowed newly hired team President Michael Winger to initiate the tear down, trading away franchise icon Bradley Beal, and orchestrating a sign & trade of big man Kristaps Porzingis. There is still a very long way to go, as Beal’s outsized contract and no-trade clause (more mistakes of the past) limited his value on the open market and thus his return. The Wizards will likely need multiple seasons at or near the bottom of the league in order to emerge with the core of their next contending team. Nonetheless, for a franchise that has lived without hope for so long, initiation of this tank job should represent a breath of fresh air. It’s a new day in the nation’s capital.
Notable Offseason Move: Empty Buckets?
The parallels between the careers of Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole are striking. Both were late 1st round picks, Kuzma 27th overall by the Lakers in 201, and Poole 28th overall by the Warriors in 2019. In each player's third season in the NBA, he played a key but imperfectly fitting support role on a championship team alongside legends of the game. Each player’s fourth season in the NBA was capped by brutal individual playoff runs, coupled with a good deal of scapegoating for their team’s early exits, and finalized with trades to the Wizards for aging former All-Star point guards. In Kuzma’s two seasons in Washington, he has rehabilitated his image some, getting back to his high-volume scoring ways but also proving to be a capable defender on the wing, and providing a steady locker room presence. Now that Poole’s Wizards tenure is about to get underway, he will be given the same ample opportunity to stuff the stat sheet and at the least, earn back his reputation as a bonafide bucket-getter. Both players are now playing on contracts worth over $100 million and are coming off of seasons in which they each averaged over 20 points per game. However, due to Kuzma’s inefficiency as a scorer (54.4% true shooting) and Poole’s horrific defense, each is faced with questions about how much they actually impact winning basketball. It’s possible that Washington, in the midst of a rebuild, is the perfect home for each player - all the shots they can ask for and no expectation of playoff or even regular season success in the win column. However, it’s also possible that Kuzma and Poole have been written off too easily, and that being out of the playoff pressure cooker will give them the necessary time to mature as players and establish true value. For Washington, giving both a long runway is smart - either they entertain fans with their scoring while keeping the team in the tank, or they play well enough to bring back something useful from a contender via trade.
One Big Question: How Much Bilal Ball in Year 1?
The Wizards organizational reset in the front office and their subsequent moves this past summer have set the focus of the franchise squarely on the future. As such, taking a home run swing with the 7th pick in the 2023 draft on French forward Bilal Coulibaly was a logical move. Coulibaly may not be as ready to contribute in year 1 as some of the other players taken in his range of the draft, but he’s dripping with potential - he’s a good athlete with excellent length and clear defensive upside. Coulibaly plays with a high motor, active both on the ball and as a help defender, and he excels when he can get out in transition and play at the rim. In the halfcourt, he’s shown some flashes offensively as a slasher, with good vision as an interior passer and enough finesse to finish around bigger defenders. All that said, Coulibaly has a long way to go before he’s ready to make consistently positive contributions in NBA games. His jump shot needs serious work, and while he is at least aggressive with it, he projects as a major negative as a floor spacer, at least early on. He has little to no individual scoring package, as defenses will not respect his shot off the dribble, and he did not show much of a penchant for getting to the free throw line (1.4 FTA per game) while playing for Metropolitans 92 in the French LNB Pro A last year. The balance between making sure Coulibaly is not overstretched, while also giving him ample game reps to develop, will be a crucial one for head coach Wes Unseld Jr. this season.
One Area I’m Sure: Points, Points, Points
If you like offense, or more accurately, if you hate defense, make sure to tune in to some Wizards games this season. Washington finished 21st in defensive rating in 2022-23 when they were theoretically trying to win games and had a legitimate rim protector in Kristaps Porzingis. As such, it’s hard to see a path to them making it out of the bottom 5 in the league on the defensive end this year. Deni Avdija and Kyle Kuzma form a solid defensive duo on the wing, but it’s an open question how much Avdija will play and Kuzma’s effort has waxed and waned on the defensive end in his career, especially when he’s shouldered a large offensive load, which he projects to for this team. Outside of those two and veteran reserve guard Delon Wright, Washington’s defensive personnel is rough - Tyus Jones and Jordan Poole are a tiny backcourt tandem known more for their offense, Daniel Gafford is a good athlete but lacks the defensive awareness to be an effective rim protector, and none of Washington’s bench unit other than Wright has shown much of anything defensively at the NBA level. On the other hand, Washington does have a fair amount of shooting top to bottom on their roster, and they figure to play in transition a ton. While they may not always be the most efficient offense, I expect them to fire early in the shot clock and look to run at every opportunity, which should create some inflated scoreboards on a night-to-night basis. It may not be the prettiest basketball to watch, but if you enjoy chaos and frustrated head coaches, the Wizards may end up being underrated viewing.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Corey Kispert
One of the main criticisms of recent Wizards drafts is their preference for “win-now” prospects - they have tended to eskew upside in favor of rookies capable of stepping into the rotation right away. Corey Kispert is a good example of this draft strategy. A 4-year college player at Gonzaga, Kispert’s assets as a prospect were his shooting ability and intelligence, with his age and lack of elite physical tools being the negatives in his profile. I’m not here to tell you that there’s some magic in Kispert’s game that emerged in his first two years as a pro - he’s pretty much exactly the style of player the consensus predicted he would be. However, while the Wizards toiled away in anonymity last year, Kispert quietly put up a really nice year. He should consistently find himself over the 40% mark from 3pt. range, he has solid size and strength for a wing player, and he plays with above average effort and IQ. Kispert is likely never going to be an All-Star, and he might not even be a starter on a playoff caliber team. Nonetheless, he is the type of player who really helps a team through a rebuild - think of the presence Joe Harris brought to the Nets as they emerged from their tanking abyss in the latter half of the 2010s.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 22-60 (FanDuel o/u 24.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 29th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 30th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 30th