TIER 5: TEAMS EXPECTING TO MAKE THE PLAY-IN
Similarly to tier 4, tier 5 consists of teams that generally fall into 1 of 2 buckets. First, you have your young teams pulling themselves out of rebuilds - these teams have an exciting young player or two, an enthusiastic or at the very least intrigued fanbase, and a lot of optimism heading into the year. Second, you have your dreaded NBA purgatory teams - too good to get a high pick and a chance at drafting their next superstar, but not good enough to have even a glimmer of hope for playoff success. Teams in this situation are often a chore to watch, as the fanbase is depressed or disinterested, the players are frustrated, and management is more focused on job preservation in the near-term than building a sustainable winner for the long-term.
Tier 5 teams can reasonably set their sights on making the play-in tournament - any wins beyond that point are truly cause for celebration. A few of these franchises will need to take a hard look at themselves at some point around the trade deadline and make a decision about what’s best for their future - shutting it down for the year and scrambling for lottery position, or kicking it into overdrive for a chance at the play-in and a couple games worth of home playoff revenue. It’s a hard choice that often requires front office job security and organizational sanity, and as such, is often incorrectly made. One way or another, it will inevitably have a lasting impact on the years to come.
*For a refresher on the the layout of this season preview series, click here
**All stats courtesy of basketballreference.com or NBA.com unless stated otherwise
ORLANDO MAGIC
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
Team Overview: Exciting Times in Orlando
As a small market team in the NBA, it is difficult to build a championship core. More than likely, you are not going to be a free agent destination for the biggest stars nor the best support players. At the end of the day, in order to get high level talent, you will have to nail at least one draft pick (more likely two or three) to have a real contender. For a long stretch following their pick of Dwight Howard 1st overall in 2004, it was difficult to pinpoint Orlando’s subsequent home run selection. Sure they’ve drafted some good players (Victor Oladipo in 2013, Aaron Gordon in 2014) but none who’ve truly been franchise changers, and as a result they have toiled in NBA obscurity for the better part of the last 15 years. By virtue of their two most recent draft selections, forwards Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, there is reason to believe that the winds of change are swirling in central Florida. The #8 overall pick in 2021, Wagner is a 6’9” slasher whose length allows him to get to the rim in a flash, and he has enough skill to score from all three levels of the court. The #1 overall pick in 2022 and last season’s rookie of the year, Banchero is a highly skilled big with excellent strength for his age, too quick for most big men and too powerful for many forwards. Around those two, Orlando has quietly assembled a strong supporting cast with quality young players, and they added even more lottery talent in the 2023 draft in guards Anthony Black and Jett Howard. Orlando won 34 games in 2022-23, 12 more than their ‘21-22 total, and that might not even fully paint the picture of their improvement - after a 5-20 start which saw them play mostly without any of their top 3 guards (Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris, Cole Anthony) due to injury, the Magic got healthy and went 29-28 the rest of the way. This team is poised for another leap in ‘23-24.
Notable Offseason Move: Kicking the Can
Given the promise shown by Wagner and Banchero in addition to Orlando’s run of competitiveness to end the season, the Magic might have been justified had they gotten aggressive over the offseason. Orlando had the capability to open up as much as $58 million in cap space (although doing so would have meant waiving non-guaranteed contracts of potentially key pieces such as Gary Harris and Jonathan Isaac) and could have been a real player in the market. A veteran point guard like Fred VanVleet might have made a ton of sense, or on a smaller scale, some shooting help on the wing in the form of Max Strus. Rather than make a big move, Orlando essentially chose to retain much of their roster and roll over their cap space into future seasons. The Magic guaranteed the contracts of Harris and Isaac, re-signed backup center Moritz Wagner (brother of Franz) and made one notable outside addition, signing veteran wing Joe Ingles. This might feel like a frustrating course of action for Magic fans who have suffered for years without a contender to root for, but it's a logical tact. While a big fish would certainly have helped this team in the short term, it’s unlikely that any addition they would have made this year would have propelled this team into true championship contention. While Orlando is definitely on the upswing, this group is still extremely young, and there is much to learn about how to supplement the roster to best complement Banchero and Wagner. Rather than push too many chips in before they are ready and compromise future flexibility, the Magic can compete for the back end of the playoffs this year and make their big move in future summers - as we currently sit, no one on their books in 2024-25 will be making more than Banchero’s $12.1 million.
One Big Question: Can they Find the Shooting?
Other than acquiring truly elite talent, I believe the best way to find a competitive edge in professional sports often comes down to anticipation - how well can you identify the right time to zig while the rest of the league zags? With this theory in mind, I appreciate when teams go for unconventional roster builds or are willing to think outside of the box with lineup deployment, as long as they are able to quickly recognize when they err and capably course correct. As such, the Magic’s commitment to length, size and athleticism over all else in their team building over recent seasons deserves some praise for unconventionality. It has largely allowed them to maintain competence on the defensive end, even in their worst seasons with their least talented rosters. However, now that they have legitimate core pieces to build around in Banchero and Wagner, I believe the time to prioritize fit around those two has come. To their credit, Orlando’s offseason was productive on this front - veteran free agent signing Joe Ingles is a serious floor spacer and 2023 #11 overall pick Jett Howard has a solid reputation from beyond the arc. On the other hand, with a highly questionable shooter already installed at starting point guard in Markelle Fultz, Orlando used their other 2023 1st round selection (#6 overall) on Arkansas guard Anthony Black - another inconsistent marksman. Black is a fun prospect, as he’s got plus size for a guard, defends across multiple positions, and passes the ball well, especially in transition. However, he shot just 30.1% from three in his lone college season, and his awkward shot mechanics and low release do not project well for significant improvement in the pros. With two forwards in Banchero and Wagner who project to do much of the initiation on offense, I believe Orlando should be prioritizing guards who can capably feature off-ball, even if it means sacrificing a little playmaking for better shooting. For a long time, the Magic have been in pure talent accumulation mode, and it’s made sense given the state of their organization. Now, it’s time to focus a little more on optimizing what they’ve already acquired.
One Area I’m Sure: Consolidation is Coming
While the fit of all their pieces may not be perfect, the good news is that the Magic have definitely assembled a roster full of talented players with intriguing skill sets. Of their 15 players with guaranteed contracts entering training camp, only Ingles and shooting guard Gary Harris will play this season at older than 26 years of age, and Orlando has 8 players who were drafted within the top ten of their respective draft years. Other than their established frontcourt of Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr., it is going to be a war amongst young guys for playing time and organizational investment, which is probably just how the Magic drew it up. At the same time, Orlando should be looking for opportunities to package some of their young players for known commodities, before a lack of playing time leads to a drop in value - an inevitability given just how deep with talent they are. This is not to say that the Magic should be overly aggressive or push their chips in before the team is truly at the competitive stage - the slow, patient build of the core is still very much the right move. However, quietly canvassing the league for whatever they deem to be fair value might behoove them in the long run. For example, moving one of their triumvirate of former first round guards (Fultz, Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs) might net the Magic a nice return, while also clearing the deck a bit for Anthony Black to step in and gain some experience. Orlando made the right moves to give themselves a lot of chances on draft picks and young players - how they now go about taking the next step in asset management and roster maneuvering will be fascinating to monitor this year.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Wendell Carter Jr.
As you (hopefully) read my work in this preview and throughout the course of the year, you will probably notice a trend - players who can both shoot and defend will earn my stamp of approval. Big men with this profile are so valuable not only individually, but also because they allow for unorthodox roster builds, making it easier to play limited shooters at other positions. In March of 2021, the Magic pulled off one of the most lopsided trades in recent NBA history. They not only got two first round picks from the Bulls for Nikola Vucevic (one of which turned into Franz Wagner), but they also acquired Wendell Carter Jr., who this past season surpassed Vucevic as a player on his own. At 6’10” 270 lbs., Carter Jr. is a huge body, difficult to get through when he is protecting the paint. However, he is also more than capable of moving his feet, comfortably switching out on the perimeter and using his long arms to harass ball handlers. Offensively, Carter Jr. averaged career bests in both 3pt. volume and accuracy in 2022-23, leading to career highs in both per game scoring and true shooting percentage. Carter Jr.’s defensive versatility and well-balanced offensive skill set are the linchpins in Orlando’s success - he is what allows their unconventionally structured team to function. I’m excited to see Carter Jr. start to get the mainstream love he deserves as Orlando takes the leap into the national spotlight over the next few seasons.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 38-44 (FanDuel o/u 37.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 23rd
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 12th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 20th
ATLANTA HAWKS
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
Team Overview: The Definition of Average
For the sake of pure comedy, indulge me and take a look at the below statistical anomalies from the 2022-23 season.
The Hawks had a 41-41 record with a net rating of +0.1
From January 21 through April 4 (33 game stretch) the Hawks were never more or less than 1 game above or below .500
For the season, the Hawks scored 9,570 total points and allowed 9,571
Randomness and flukiness of these stats aside, they do a good job of summarizing the vibes around this team and this organization. They have a star in point guard Trae Young who has proven to be capable of putting together All-Star caliber seasons, but has also struggled mightily in multiple playoff series and has major defensive weaknesses. They have multiple quality depth pieces, but none that are particularly young or on particularly valuable contracts. They have a couple of intriguing young pieces, but each profiles more as a solid role player than a breakout star. They lack any path to meaningful cap space and have already forfeited major future draft capital in an underwhelming trade for guard Dejounte Murray. With their current team, Atlanta has too much talent to bottom out - Young can keep the offense mostly afloat by himself, Quin Snyder is a good head coach, and the supporting cast is two or three deep with quality NBA players at every position. The real question is how the Hawks pivot from here - is somewhere between 35 and 45 wins really worth keeping this thing together, or is a Young trade inevitably in their future?
Notable Offseason Move: Money for Murray
Going into 2022-23 the Hawks seemingly identified two major areas of team need. The first was a reliable option to keep the offense afloat in the minutes where Trae Young was off the court. The second was a player who could take on tough perimeter defensive assignments, allowing Young to hide on an easier match-up. This internal audit led to an aggressive move, as Atlanta traded three first round draft picks and an additional first round pick swap for then-Spurs guard Dejounte Murray. In my opinion, Atlanta’s assessment of their issues was correct - where they erred was in both methodology and execution of their solution. In theory, Murray fills the two identified holes - he was an All-Star in 2022 for San Antonio, averaging over 9 assists per contest as the lead playmaker on the Spurs roster. He also carries a stellar defensive reputation, having led the NBA in steals in 2021-22 and having earned all-defensive team honors back in 2017-18. However, a deeper dive into Murray’s game reveals some troubling flaws. While his box score statistics for the Spurs are impressive, his true shooting was a meager 53.3% and San Antonio’s offense rated an unimpressive 17th in his breakout year of 2021-22. Defensively, Murray has slipped as his career has progressed and he’s garnered an increased offensive workload, as he is inattentive off-ball, gambles for steals far too often, and is too slight in build to defend stronger guards and scoring wings. While Murray himself was not bad for the Hawks in his first season with the team, improving his overall efficiency by boosting both his 3pt. volume and accuracy to career highs, he predictably did not have the major singular impact Atlanta’s brass was clearly expecting he would make when they traded so much to acquire him. This offseason, the Hawks doubled down on Murray in a sense by handing him a 4 year extension worth over $100 million. It’s a move that signifies where the Hawks stand overall - committed to a roster that’s only half working.
One Big Question: How Much Difference Does a Coach Make?
Oftentimes, when an NBA team makes a change at head coach, it is the signal of a new direction for the franchise. Coaching changes can correlate with major roster overhaul or front office regime change, leading to a reset of sorts for the entire organization. Other times, a coaching move is made because the front office is so pot committed to an underperforming roster that the only thing left to change is the coach. In my view, the Hawks mid-season hire of Quin Snyder in 2023 falls firmly into the latter category. It’s not to say that the move was not justified, as Snyder has a long track record of success from his time in Utah, and his predecessor Nate McMillan had both an outdated scheme and reportedly, communication issues with his roster. However, it does beg the question of just how drastically Snyder can actually swing the fortunes of a roster that may be tapped out in terms of room for growth. In Utah, Snyder built his system around star center Rudy Gobert, utilizing Gobert’s skill and gravity and as a pick and roll screener to ignite the offense, and funneling opponents into Gobert’s elite rim protection on the defensive end. Ironically, the same systems make a lot of sense when designed around Trae Young. Young is an elite pick and roll ball handler and has shown the ability to orchestrate an above-average offense out of this action when surrounded by a spaced floor. Atlanta also has a pair of solid rim protectors in Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu who help to mitigate Young’s defensive weaknesses in a drop coverage scheme similar to what Utah ran around Gobert. Snyder will also improve Atlanta’s shot selection, as he puts an emphasis on trading mid-range shots for three pointers, an area where McMillan drew heavy criticism for not being as stingy. Ultimately though, there’s a limit on the impact a coach can make when there’s no significant change to personnel. One area I’ll be watching closely is how Snyder utilizes and develops some of the younger players on Atlanta’s roster - player development was not a strength of Snyder’s staff in Utah, but it must have renewed emphasis in Atlanta because it may be the Hawks only true chance at breaking through their current ceiling.
One Area I’m Sure: Give the Young Guns a Chance
As I just alluded to above, Atlanta needs to utilize this season to see what they have in some of their most recent draft picks. While I’m not particularly confident in any of the players in question, I know for a fact that the veterans in front of them are solid players but nothing more. If there is any path to upside for this team, it will come out of an unexpected breakout from a member or two of their young core. Looking at the roster, Atlanta’s first round picks from each of the last three drafts prior to 2023 (Onyeka Okongwu, Jalen Johnson, A.J. Griffin) project to start the season in the rotation, but coming off the bench. Okongwu has been productive in his career so far as a lob threat out of pick and roll and a rim protector on the defensive end. He’s currently playing behind Clint Capela, a player with a very similar profile who is 6 years Okongwu’s senior. Why not give Okongwu the starting nod and find out for sure if there is another level to his game? Johnson is an athletic forward who has flashed major defensive potential, something that neither of Atlanta’s current starting forward tandem of Saddiq Bey and De’Andre Hunter bring. A.J. Griffin is an intriguing shooter on the wing with some ability to create shots off the dribble, but he projects to play second fiddle to 31 year old Bogdan Bogdanovic in the pecking order. Particularly in the case of Capela and Bogdanovic, these are good quality players who help the team win games. However, we’ve also seen multiple playoff runs now where these guys have played significant roles, and the ceiling of that team is clear. With both veterans likely having positive trade value, it makes sense for Atlanta to look to move on from them to gather some future draft capital but also to clear the decks for their young players to play. There’s no guarantee the team won’t take a step back on the floor this year, but I believe it’s worth the gamble to find out where you stand in terms of the long-term future.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Mouhamed Gueye
As you may have noticed so far in reading this preview series, the unheralded players to watch usually aren’t completely unheralded, rather just guys that I feel are getting less attention than they deserve. Gueye is a departure from that trend - I don’t expect that anyone outside of Atlanta besides the most hardcore NBA fans is all that aware of him coming into the season, and unless the College Park Skyhawks somehow become national news this year, Gueye might be flying under the radar at season’s end as well. However, in keeping with the theme of Atlanta ideally becoming more future focused, Gueye felt like the right player to highlight as a long-term, upside-laden project. A second round pick this year out of Washington State, Gueye is an athletic combo big with excellent length, checking in with a wingspan of over 7 feet 3 inches. He was a pretty productive player in the Pac-12, starting 66 of his 68 career college games and averaging over 14 points and 8 rebounds per game as a sophomore. At Summer League this year, I really liked what I saw from Gueye - he had gotten notably stronger from his college tape, and his jump shot looked significantly more fluid, to the point where the coaching staff was comfortable with him letting it fly from 3. He wasn’t perfect defensively by any means, but he was extremely active, hustling up and down the court and flying around the paint, getting his hands on shots and in passing lanes. It was encouraging to see that type of effort from a player with Gueye’s physical tools - typically the combination of those two components is a good place to start when projecting prospects, especially on defense. Gueye is still a long way off from playing winning basketball at the NBA level, as he is very raw and lacking any one defining skill that can get him on the court right away. However, he has a very intriguing set of tools for the Hawks to work with, and is a player to monitor for signs of growth over the course of this season.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 38-44 (FanDuel o/u 42.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 15th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 25th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 22nd
CHICAGO BULLS
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is expected to miss start of season due to injury/suspension/other*
Team Overview: The Walking Dead
The poster child for the ugly side of tier 5 in 2022-23, I’m sorry to say that the Chicago Bulls are right back in the same place as we head into 2023-24. Chicago reads like a checklist for the wasteland that is the NBA’s middle ground - front office and head coach desperate to save their jobs, a roster with competent players and even some star talent, but plenty of imperfections and not much upside to speak of, and zero truly ascending young talent. It’s an organization stuck in neutral, doomed to repeat the same cycle of mistakes unless they can make the hard choice to tear it all down - and then hit the right combination of luck and shrewd decision making to build it back up the right way. On the court, this Bulls team certainly should not be terrible, as they have a couple of legitimate all-star candidates in scoring wings Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan and one of the NBA’s best role players in 1st team All-Defensive guard Alex Caruso. Head coach Billy Donovan isn’t a disaster by any means, as he’s made the playoffs with multiple organizations and has managed to consistently coax better defenses out of his teams than their talent might suggest. However, Chicago has a ton of flaws. Their lack of floor spacing and shooting is a major concern, and was a big reason for their 24th rated offense a season ago. They lack defensive difference makers in their frontcourt, and despite a couple of nice free agent additions to their bench, they’re still very thin overall. LaVine and DeRozan are very good players individually, but their skill sets don’t compliment each other particularly well and neither one is the type of talent to carry a team to any sort of playoff success. The Bulls are meh - a boring watch that will likely hang around a few games under .500 and make a late push towards the play-in - a sad state of affairs for one of the country’s best basketball cities.
Notable Offseason Move: The Bird Rights Trap & The Fallacy of Sunk Costs
On March 25 2021, the Bulls made a bad trade. At the time of the deal, the team was in 10th place in the Eastern conference with a record 19-24, not great by any means but significantly better than they had been in any of the three previous seasons, each of which had ended with less than 27 wins. Zach LaVine was in the midst of a long awaited breakout, earning an All-Star nod, and the Bulls saw a chance to give him an All-Star running mate in then-Orlando big man Nikola Vucevic. Chicago pulled the trigger, sending two 1st round picks and former lottery pick Wendell Carter Jr. to the Magic to get their guy. It was a questionable move at the time, as despite Vucevic’s productivity for a mediocre Magic team, he never profiled as the type of player to push a team to the next level, and it only looks worse now, as Carter Jr. has developed nicely in Orlando and those two draft picks ended up as the #8 and #11 overall selections in the 2021 and 2023 drafts. Other than a half season of success with Vucevic in ‘21-22 that had a lot more to do with the acquisitions of Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan than anything else, Chicago has floundered and Vucevic’s own play has been underwhelming relative to acquisition cost. As he entered free agency this past summer, it could have been the time for Chicago to cut their losses and look to a new direction, maybe taking a step back on the court in the short term but avoiding exacerbating an existing mistake. Instead, the Bulls doubled down on Vucevic to the tune of a new 3 year, $60 million contract, a classic example of a team falling into the “bird rights trap” - defined by former Grizzlies executive John Hollinger as when a team can retain their own player via his bird rights but has no viable way to replace that player with an outside free agent who would command a similar contract. Unwilling to even think about the prospect of not being able to keep a 40-42 team together, Chicago is now even more pot committed than before to a roster that we know does not work as currently constituted. This is the type of decision that defines a desperate front office that doesn’t have the job security to think long-term.
One Big Question: Deadline Choices
If all goes as anticipated, Chicago is going to be faced with some very familiar choices at this year’s trade deadline. Entering deadline day a season ago, the Bulls sat at 26-28, 9th place in the East and 3.5 games behind 6th place Miami. Trade rumors swirled around several of Chicago’s players, including impending free agent Nikola Vucevic, All-Star DeMar DeRozan, and key reserve guard Alex Caruso. All three, but especially DeRozan and Caruso, would have brought real value to Chicago had they chosen to trade them away, as each could have helped true contenders. However, to do so would have been admitting defeat on two fronts - the 2022-23 season, and also the Vucevic trade, as the Magic had control of the Bulls’ 2023 1st round selection unless it fell between picks 1-4. If they had sold at the deadline, Chicago would have had to tank quite aggressively and gotten some good lottery ball fortune in order to avoid gift wrapping Orlando a top pick in the 2023 draft. Whether because they believed the team had a real chance to get hot and contend, or because selling would have been a bad look for the front office, Chicago instead stood pat at the 2023 trade deadline, and the team ended up losing in the play-in tournament. Unless the team greatly outperforms expectations this year, I expect the 2024 deadline conversation in Chicago to be much of the same - will Executive VP of Basketball Operations Arturas Karnisovas and head coach Billy Donovan feel secure enough to look towards the future and start trading pieces away, or will they put their heads down and pray for better results? It’s choices like these that have major implications on the overall health of an organization, because decision makers that have playoff mandates or feel as though their jobs are in danger are unable to make choices that take the long term into account. This is the cycle of NBA mediocrity personified, and it’s imperative that the Bulls take the correct steps in order to break free.
One Area I’m Sure: The Definition of Insanity
As you can probably tell from reading the above paragraph, I’m strongly in favor of the Bulls hitting the reset button on this roster. Chicago is not bereft of desirable talent, both DeRozan - who enters this season on the last year of his deal - and Caruso, who is on a team-friendly contract through 2024-25, might be able to return multiple draft picks via trade. If Chicago signs the 34 year old DeRozan to an extension or lets him walk this summer, they are missing a hugely valuable opportunity to supercharge the rebuild that will inevitably be coming for them at some point down the line anyway. Even if the front office does not sink any more future draft capital into this team and just stands pat, it will not be enough to give the future Chicago Bulls enough a real chance at contention. Now look, I understand that it’s much easier to scream rebuild from behind a computer screen than it is to actually be the one pulling the trigger. For Karnisovas, he likely knows that waiving the white flag at this point means not only his job, but likely the jobs of so many that he employs both in the front office and amongst the team personnel. This is why the impetus must fall on Bulls owner Jerry Reinsdorf - either empower Karnisovas to initiate the rebuild and assure him and his staff that it will not cost them or their jobs, or make a clean break from Karnisovas now and allow a new regime to wipe the slate clean and start over before it is too late to capitalize on the tradable assets that they do currently have. The one thing that cannot be allowed to happen is nothing - Chicago cannot bang their head against the wall with the same strategy and expect different results.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Jevon Carter
For fans of Jevon Carter like myself, watching him fall out of former Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer’s playoff rotation in each of the past two seasons was perplexing to say the least. Carter is exactly the type of support piece built to boost a contender - he’s a tenacious on-ball defender, consistently makes his 3pt. shots and is comfortable handling the dirty work on an NBA floor. A second round pick in 2018, Carter built his reputation in college as the face of West Virginia’s infamous “Press Virginia” defense, picking up opposing ball handlers full-court and wreaking havoc with his harassment. After bouncing in and out of rotations for four different teams through his first four and a half years in the league, Carter finally found his footing as the Bucks’ primary backup point guard in 2022-23, appearing in 81 games and shooting a stellar 42.1% from three. The Bulls rewarded him with a three year contract (third year player option) over the summer, and he should pair with Alex Caruso to form one of the best backcourt defensive duos in the NBA. Carter is far from a perfect player - he brings little to no scoring outside of his 3pt. stroke, his passing is underwhelming for a nominal point guard, and his help defense is nowhere near as strong as his on-ball efforts. However, his ability to heat up the ball will do wonders for creating transition opportunities for the Bulls, and his ability to survive off-ball offensively will fit nicely playing next to Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 37-45 (FanDuel o/u 37.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 22nd
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 19th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 24th
UTAH JAZZ
Projected Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
Team Overview: Building Through the Bigs
After trading away their All-Star duo (Rudy Gobert & Donovan Mitchell) as well as a third key starter (Bojan Bogdanovic), and parting ways with their head coach (Quin Snyder) in the 2022 offseason, the 2022-23 Utah Jazz were expected to be firmly amongst the worst teams in the NBA. Instead, Utah rode a breakout season from Lauri Markkanen and a highly entertaining, well-coached offense to a respectable 37-45 record. That record may even bely how good Utah had the potential to be, as they sent out key pieces Mike Conley, Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley in a mid-season future-focused trade, and rested players down the stretch on their way to a tanktastic 2-9 close to the season. First-year head coach Will Hardy leaned into an unorthodox style of play, spending most of the year playing three big lineups that included Markkanen and rookie center Walker Kessler, and orchestrated an egalitarian offense that showed off Utah’s overall depth of scoring prowess. All of a sudden, not only was Utah entertaining to watch, but they had two organizational building blocks in their frontcourt and a war chest full of draft picks - the perfect beginning to a rebuild. This offseason, Utah leaned into their multi-big approach, utilizing their cap space to buy low on power forward John Collins and using the #9 overall pick on big man Taylor Hendricks. Utah has talent and potential at every spot in the rotation, and while the roster certainly has flaws, they should once again be extremely competitive while they continue to build for the future and bide their time on a big move.
Notable Offseason Move: Rehabilitation Project Round 2?
When the Jazz dealt Donovan Mitchell to Cleveland last summer, it was the asset haul they received in return (3 1sts, 2 1st round pick swaps) that got the majority of the attention. Finnish forward Lauri Markkanen was thought to just be a throw-in, a quality player but mainly included in the trade for salary-matching purposes. Markkanen always had potential - he’s a 7-footer who can really shoot and has a nice overall scoring package, there’s a reason he was a lottery pick back in 2017 - but he never quite found his footing through his first five seasons, always in between positions defensively and not efficient enough as a scorer to justify having an offense run through him. Whether or not Utah truly believed there was another level to his game before they traded for him, Markkanen found it last season, averaging over 25 pts. per game on 64.1% true shooting on his way to being one of the best offensive players in the NBA in 2023-24. This offseason, Utah acquired another frontcourt rehabilitation project in former Atlanta big man John Collins. After an excellent sophomore season in 2019-20 which saw Collins average over 20 points and 10 rebounds per game while shooting over 40% from three, his production has steadily declined in each of the past three seasons, to the point where the Hawks were willing to accept just a future 2nd round pick back from Utah in trade just to get off of the remaining 3 years and $78.3 million remaining on his contract. Other than his early career success, there are reasons to believe that Collins will thrive after a change of scenery. His most productive seasons came when he was heavily involved in pick and roll actions with a spaced floor, something that dissipated once Atlanta traded for rim running center Clint Capela. Collins had less and less action designed for him as Trae Young took over the offense, and his chances were relegated to catch and shoot opportunities or crashing the glass for offensive rebounds. With a more inventive coach in Hardy and better spaced lineups when he plays alongside Markkanen or stretch big Kelly Olynyk, Collins could be in line for a breakout year. If it all comes together, Collins will provide a huge boost of athleticism to Utah’s versatile collection of bigs and could be an important piece on their next playoff team.
One Big Question: Can they Get Reliable Guard Play?
One of the more underrated reasons for Utah’s surprising start last year was the steady play they received from one of the lone holdovers of the Mitchell/Gobert trade, veteran point guard Mike Conley. Conley was far and away the best passer on the Jazz roster, and after he was traded to Minnesota at the trade deadline, his absence had a substantial impact - with Conley on the roster Utah ranked 4th in the NBA in offensive rating (116.6), after his departure they fell to 24th (112.4). While that dip cannot be entirely attributed to Conley, as there were other departures and key injuries as well, it underscores how his distribution at the point was a key feature of their team. This year, Utah figures to have a rotating cast of primary ball handlers that includes Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton, Talen Horton-Tucker and rookie Keyonte George. Clarkson and Sexton are solid, established NBA players but both are definitely shoot first (and maybe second and third) scoring guards, whose primary knocks on their offensive game have been shot selection and lack of playmaking ability for others. Horton-Tucker has basically been a less efficient version of Clarkson and Sexton so far in his young career, and George had a negative assist-to-turnover ratio in his lone season in college at Baylor. Utah will run a good amount through Markkanen, and Hardy has been good at squeezing the most out of his personnel so far in his coaching career, but Utah’s lack of proven distribution is a major concern for me heading into the season. Any path to the postseason for the Jazz will run through their offense, and if they struggle to score due to a lack of ball movement and cohesion, they may be less competitive than many think.
One Area I’m Sure: Utah Wants it All
It’s hard to understate how seamlessly the Jazz have flipped the script on their long-term outlook in just a few years. At the end of 2021-22, this organization was flooded with negative vibes. They were coming off a second consecutive highly disappointing playoff exit, the roster was aging and expensive, and their two best players (Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert) had a fairly open disdain for one another. The Jazz could have held on for dear life and rode out the last few years of that team, likely making the playoffs but lacking a true championship ceiling before inevitably hitting a rebuilding phase. Instead, they struck while the iron was hot, flipping Gobert to Minnesota for absolute peak value, and making the hard choice to cut ties with Mitchell before he got any closer to free agency. At the trade deadline last year, faced with the opportunity to either lean into a surprisingly successful season and push for the playoffs, or build for the future, they traded away key pieces and collected even more draft capital. In addition to all but one of their own future 1st round picks, the Jazz are now armed with 7 additional first round picks and 2 first round pick swaps between now and 2029, enough ammunition to be in the mix for basically any player who comes on the trade block. One thing is for sure though, Utah’s big move will not be with the goal of simply being competitive or making the playoffs - when the Jazz do strike, it will be with the intent of winning it all. The wealth of opportunity that exists in front of them has to have Utah fans extremely excited for the future.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Kelly Olynyk
The more you watch Kelly Olynyk play, the more you will come to appreciate all the ways in which he impacts winning. At first, his game strikes you as just kind of awkward - whether it's his scraggly long hair and goatee combo or his herky-jerky offensive style full of spin moves, flops and flying elbows, there’s nothing particularly graceful about him on a basketball court. However, there’s no denying that he’s effective, and in his first season in Utah he was a huge reason why they greatly overperformed expectations. Olynyk stretches the floor beyond the three point line (39.4% in 2022-23) and is a good enough passer and decision maker to have the offense run through him in the high post, especially against bench units. He’s not an excellent defender, lacking the athleticism to be a true presence at the rim, but he's strong, rarely out of position, and willing to sacrifice his body with extra effort plays. Olynyk’s floor spacing made a hugely positive impact on Markkanen, giving him more space to operate inside the arc, and Olynyk’s passing was huge as well, as Hardy frequently let the two of them work together in high low actions. While he projects for a bench role this year due to the emergence of Walker Kessler and the acquisition of John Collins, I still expect Olynyk to be a huge part of Utah’s plans this season. If Utah makes a leap towards the playoffs this year, expect Olynyk to be right in the middle of it as the leader of a strong reserve unit and if they don’t, expect him to bring Utah value at the trade deadline as a playoff-tested veteran on an expiring contract.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 33-49 (FanDuel o/u 35.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 21st
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 22nd
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 25th
HOUSTON ROCKETS
Projected Rotation:
*Note - at the time of article release, HOU has 16 players on under contract - they will need to waive one player prior to the beginning of the season*
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is expected to miss start of season due to injury/suspension/other*
Team Overview: Time to Rejoin the NBA
When James Harden forced his way out of town early in the 2020-21 season, it was fairly obvious to all involved that Houston would be entering a rebuilding phase. However, even by the standards of other notable tank jobs around the league, it has been particularly rough for the Rockets - they’ve finished with either the worst or second worst record in the league in each of the past three years. Not only has Houston been bad on the court, but they’ve also felt like a rudderless franchise - head coach Stephen Silas was considered one of the league’s least creative schemers in his three years at the helm, and it’s hard to point to any definitive player development wins for the team, despite a bevy of 1st round draft picks. 2023-24 was always going to have to be the point in which Houston rejoined the ranks of the competitive, as thanks to mistakes of old, they hold limited control on their own 2024 1st round pick (if it falls outside of picks 1-4, it conveys to Oklahoma City). This offseason, the Rockets first made a change at the helm, firing Silas and bringing in Ime Udoka, who (off-court controversy aside) brings a stellar defensive reputation and a good amount of past success with him. In free agency, Houston landed a couple of high-priced pieces in Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, but also supplemented their roster with steady veterans like Jeff Green and Reggie Bullock. Houston’s free agency additions bring a wealth of playoff experience and regular season competence to an otherwise inexperienced roster, and should expedite their rebuild significantly. Finally, Houston used their two 2023 1st round selections on a pair of well regarded talents in Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore, both of whom impressed at Summer League. Overall, the Rockets look like a much more functional NBA team than they have in a while, and expectations for this group are deservedly different than they have been at any time since Harden left.
Notable Offseason Move: Culture Shift
The summer of 2023 in Houston was clearly about adding players and pieces that would help the team get better on the court. However, I have to imagine that the second priority behind all moves made by General Manager Rafael Stone and his front office was to improve the overall atmosphere surrounding the team. The past three seasons of Rockets basketball have been characterized not only by losing, but also dysfunction - one of the key reasons for the negative vibes surrounding their rebuild in comparison with organizations like Oklahoma City or San Antonio. In theory, it’s sound logic to stock your roster with young players and let them battle it out for playing time. However, without a firm guiding hand to foster a winning culture, this can easily turn into chaos. From a roster perspective, Houston’s mix of young talent and established NBA veterans should do wonders for the locker room, as will removing talented but immature (or downright deplorable) presences such as guard Kevin Porter Jr. Houston has struggled mightily with selfish play over the past few seasons, and that issue should be greatly mitigated by a few factors - firstly, a clear message from the organization that winning is the main focus for the season, and secondly, a rotation that has established roles rather than a hodgepodge of youngsters seeking to prove their worth. With all that being said, there’s also a clear argument that can be made that Houston’s culture may still be an open question. In July, the Rockets made Dillon Brooks their second highest paid player - in April, the Grizzlies essentially exiled Brooks from their franchise due to his immaturity in the media and negative effect on the locker room. None would argue that Ime Udoka has had more success as a head coach in the NBA than his predecessor Stephen Silas, but Udoka’s history from his time in Boston of improper relations with a female staffer does not exactly scream professionalism. Houston is clearly banking on competition being the key to their internal turnaround, but it’s not as though the roster is so transformed from a talent perspective that wins are guaranteed. If losses start to pile up, disaster could be right around the corner once again.
One Big Question: Who is Jalen Green?
Selected #2 overall in the 2021 draft, explosive scoring guard Jalen Green has put forth a mixed bag of results in his first two NBA seasons. On one hand, Green has had major flashes of productivity - he finished his rookie season by scoring at least 30 points in 6 out of his final 7 games, and in his sophomore season he had 4 games where he put up at least 40. On the other, Green’s efficiency is subpar - his 53.8% true shooting last season clocked in at 3.2% below the league average for shooting guards - and his scoring outbursts have come on a team that’s a combined 42-122 over the course of his career. Year 3 represents a pivotal stage in Green’s development, as Houston will need a definitive answer around whether he is a true building block for their future, or simply an explosive scorer who brings little else to the table. The overall growth of both Houston’s roster and organizational culture that I’m expecting this season should benefit Green tremendously, as he will be able to operate in a system that should be far more cohesive than anything he has seen in the NBA so far. Alternatively, there’s a chance that rather than being lifted up by Houston’s rising tide, he sinks to the bottom as a result of the flaws in his game. If Green is inefficient on the ball, the Rockets can turn to Fred VanVleet for initiation and playmaking instead. If Green’s inconsistent defensive effort and awareness persist, head coach Ime Udoka will surely dedicate more minutes to veterans like Reggie Bullock and Aaron Holiday or up and comers like Amen Thompson. With all the chaos and instability that has surrounded him in Houston thus far, it was unrealistic to expect Jalen Green to be a perfectly polished NBA player. Now, those excuses should be eliminated, and we will find out just how good Green can truly be. The answer to that question is one I personally find fascinating, as it will have major implications for the Rockets team building in the coming seasons.
One Area I’m Sure: Amen is Part of the Answer
Generally, as far as prospects go, it takes a lot for me to get on board with using significant draft capital on a non-center who has shooting as the #1 weakness in their game. As gifted as an athlete or as talented in other areas as the player may be, it just becomes so difficult to fit them in when opponents can leave them unguarded off the ball. All that said, Amen Thompson is the exception to that rule. At 6’7” and nearly 210 lbs., Thompson has the size of an NBA wing but the floor presence of a point guard. His handle is excellent, and he is an absolute force in transition, where he excels as a passer but is also more than capable of grabbing a rebound and taking it the length of the court by himself. Athletically, Thompson is as gifted as they come - his straight line speed is blinding for a player as tall as he is, he has good timing and anticipation to get steals and create deflections, and he plays well above the rim. Perhaps most critically, Thompson has drawn rave reviews for his work ethic and professional demeanor - traits that should help him reach whatever the ceiling for his jump shot is, and also help turn around the culture in Houston. I expect Thompson’s defense to earn him minutes right away in Ime Udoka’s rotation, and once he gets on the court, I think his playmaking and passing will shine. Don’t get me wrong, the shot is absolutely an issue. I don’t expect Thompson to get guarded at all beyond the three point line, and in the halfcourt he’ll have trouble scoring, with defenses going under on all screens and loading up the paint against him. His rookie year will be a learning curve, but everything I’ve seen out of Thompson to this point tells me that he’ll figure out a way to help Houston win.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Jabari Smith Jr.
It seems almost impossible for a player drafted #3 overall just one season ago to be flying under the radar, but somehow, I feel as though that is the situation we are in with Jabari Smith Jr. Maybe it’s due to Smith Jr.’s unremarkable rookie season, or maybe it’s because of the attention garnered by Houston’s splashy 2023 offseason moves, but either way Smith Jr.’s development this year is a huge storyline and commands attention. As far as Smith Jr.’s first season goes, the results were undeniably pretty rough. His 51.4% true shooting clocked in at 7.6% below the positional average for power forwards, and although touted for his defense in college, Smith Jr. had long stretches where he looked completely lost on that end as a rookie. However, some context is needed when analyzing Smith Jr. as well. He stepped into arguably the most dysfunctional setting possible, asked to play 31 minutes per game for a team with a lame duck head coach and no significant veteran presence in the starting lineup to take the pressure off him. Houston deployed two shoot-first guards who also had a penchant for turnovers, and they were done playing meaningful games (in terms of the standings) within the season’s first month. This year, Smith Jr. will have veteran stability and structure around him both on the court and on the bench, which should put him in a much better position to thrive. He looked notably stronger and more confident in his run at the Summer League over the offseason, and he still brings an intriguing theoretical skill set of plus size (6’10”), a pure shooting stroke, and on-ball defensive potential. I don’t think that Smith Jr. is destined to be the star that his draft billing might suggest, but there is still undoubtedly a path where he is a capable 3pt. shooter with defensive versatility across multiple positions - the type of player profile that every single team in the NBA can use. Seeing how Smith Jr. is deployed this year and monitoring his comfort level on both sides of the floor are a couple of my key early season items to monitor when I watch the Rockets.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 33-49 (FanDuel o/u 31.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 24th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 17th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 23rd
TORONTO RAPTORS
Projected Rotation:
*Note - at the time of article release, TOR has 16 guaranteed players on guaranteed contracts - they will need to waive one player prior to the beginning of the season*
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is expected to miss start of season due to injury/suspension/other*
Team Overview: What’s the Plan?
As recently as a few seasons ago, Raptors team President Masai Ujiri and his contingent of front-office decision makers were universally thought of as amongst the NBA’s elite. In the latter part of the 2010s, the Raptors player development machine was humming with wins such as Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby, and Ujiri’s ballsy all-in move of shipping franchise icon DeMar DeRozan to San Antonio as part of a package for Kawhi Leonard led to the Raptors taking home the 2019 title. A few years later, with the Raptors coming off a season that ended without a playoff appearance and an offseason that saw an All-Star point guard depart the team for the second time in the last three summers, there are far more questions swirling around the job that Ujiri is doing. At last year’s trade deadline, VanVleet in the last year of his deal was one of the most sought-after commodities on the market. However, the Raptors instead chose to hang onto him and were later caught with their pants down when he departed for Houston in free agency, and Toronto received no compensation in return. Entering this year, Toronto has a similar situation with star forwards Siakam and Anunoby both entering walk years, and seemingly having no plans to commit to long term extensions. While the Raptors have until this year’s trade deadline to deal both should they so choose, an ill-timed trade for Jakob Poeltl at last year’s trade deadline means they are without a first round pick in the 2024 draft unless it falls between picks 1-6, limiting their ability to shift into rebuilding mode even if they want to. Toronto is very much stuck in the middle as currently constituted, unable to field a roster worthy of contention but apparently unwilling to pivot their focus to the future.
Notable Offseason Move: Caught in Between
In a vacuum, adding a player like Jakob Poeltl to the Raptors in 2022-23 made sense - Toronto was a roster full of capable perimeter defenders, but they lacked a rim protector to clean up mistakes in the paint, which is the exact skill set that Poeltl brings to the table. However, when Toronto sent out their 2024 1st round pick as part of the deal, they not only mistakenly doubled down on the ‘22-23 season, but also greatly hindered their flexibility for ‘23-24. Locked into the bird rights trap with Poeltl this summer, they handed him a 4 year (4th year player option) $80 million contract, but at the same time watched Fred VanVleet hit the exits for Houston. They may have solved the defensive issue that was ailing last year’s team by adding Poeltl, but now they have major offensive questions without VanVleet. It’s a frustrating game of one step forward, one step back for Raptors fans that leaves the team in no better condition to win games. Unable to seriously help their team via roster moves over the summer, and unable to easily pivot to a new direction because they do not control their own draft pick, Toronto is now left to hope that internal improvement or unforeseen positive developments on some other front bring good results. It’s possible, but it’s never an ideal situation for a team to be in heading into a season.
One Big Question: Is Scottie a Star?
While Scottie Barnes was well thought of by many heading into the 2021 draft, he was projected as a toolsy, developmental project of a prospect, a big wing with guard skills and defensive promise but far from a finished product. As such, it was a surprise when he burst onto the scene in his first year, starting all 74 of his games for a 48 win Raptors team and averaging over 15 points per game on his way to being named Rookie of the Year. Barnes showed enough promise as a rookie that Toronto was reportedly unwilling to even consider moving him as part of a package for Kevin Durant when the superstar forward requested a trade in the summer of 2022 (Sports Illustrated). Fast forward to the end of year 2 for Barnes, and his outlook does not look quite as rosy. In his second season, Barnes stagnated rather than taking a leap, as his scoring volume stayed the same (15.3 points per game) while his efficiency fell off (55.2% true shooting -> 52.4%). Barnes’ shooting is a major question mark, as he’s neither a reliable 3pt. shooter (29.0% career) nor is he efficient in the mid-range. His lack of potency as a scorer limits his ability to utilize his passing, which is above average for a player his size (6’9”), because defenses do not have to devote extra attention to him when he attacks to score. Perhaps most concerningly, Barnes’ defense, which was the one area of his game as a prospect that appeared to be a give-in, has been underwhelming so far. Barnes is not a player that opposing teams seek out as a weak point, but he also has not been a true difference maker on that end, and he’s shown that smaller players can exploit him from a lateral quickness standpoint. Despite all of that, Barnes is just 22 years old and has already flashed on-ball ability through his passing and well-rounded floor game that most players with his physical description never reach. Given where the rest of Toronto’s roster is from an age and talent perspective, Barnes breaking out as a star is still far and away the Raptors’ best chance at reaching the next level as a team. If he can show this season that ‘22-’23 was a temporary misstep and that he still has multiple levels to unlock in his game, Toronto’s future outlook might not look quite as gloomy as it currently appears.
One Area I’m Sure: Don’t Make the Same Mistake Twice
Barring the current roster miraculously emerging as a championship contender over the first few months of the season, the absolute number one priority for the Toronto Raptors in 2023-24 has to be ensuring that they do not allow Pascal Siakam or OG Anunoby to walk out the door while receiving nothing in return. Allowing such an occurrence with VanVleet was a crucial error, and a repeat would be unforgivable - Toronto must determine whether or not each player is a part of their future plans and then act decisively in whatever direction they choose. Even if the acquiring team only has Siakam for half of a season with no guarantee of re-signing, his status as a 2-time all-NBA forward who could legitimately swing a playoff series or championship push should still be enough to net the Raptors a serious return in trade. The same rings true for Anunoby - his value as a 3&D wing who can fit in any system in the league is exceptionally valuable, enough so that multiple teams were reportedly willing to offer 3 1st round picks for him at last year’s deadline (Sports Illustrated). Unlike their fellow tier 5 dwellers Chicago, Toronto has the benefit of a front office that has a ton of organizational equity and trust built up due to prior success, and should feel secure in their long term positioning. They need to act with the big picture in mind and put the team in the best position to shoot for future championship contention, even if it comes with some short-term heartbreak.
Unheralded Player to Watch: Gary Trent Jr.
I’ve already spent a ton of time talking about two Raptors playing in the final year of their contract in Siakam and Anunoby, but there is a third Raptor who deserves mention as well - Gary Trent Jr. Heading into the summer, all signs pointed to Trent Jr. declining his $18.5 million player option for 2023-24 and testing the open market, as he lost his starting spot down the stretch of 2022-23 and was seemingly at odds with Toronto management. However, whether because of the Raptors change at head coach or more likely, because a better deal did not exist on the open market for him, Trent Jr. opted in and will return to the team this season. Trent Jr. fills an important role for this Toronto team as by far and away their best shooter, but he’s also polarizing in that he is a bit of a gunner on a team whose team president publicly called out for being too selfish (EPSN.com). Trent Jr.’s shot selection is definitely a flaw in his game - while he has the capability to get scorching hot and win a game single-handedly, he has far too many nights where he settles for contested jumpers in the midrange and shoots his team out of games. He brings little as a scorer around the rim, and nothing as a passer or rebounder. What intrigues me about Trent Jr. is that unlike some other guards with a similar profile, he has not always played this way. Early on in his career when he was a Portland Trail Blazer, Trent Jr. seemed to revel in taking on tough defensive assignments, using his stocky frame and quick hands to battle with the likes of LeBron James in the 2020 playoffs. Trent Jr. has the physical makeup to be an effective switch defender across the wing positions because he is strong, and if he fine-tunes his offense to be more of a three point specialist, he could be a really valuable piece - think of the role J.R. Smith played once he got to Cleveland in 2015. If Trent Jr. really did opt in because there was not much out there for him on the open market, I believe he will enter ‘23-24 with a different mindset and renewed focus. If he does, he will either really help the Raptors this season or be an under the radar deadline addition for a contending team.
Projected 2023-24 Record: 36-46 (FanDuel o/u 36.5)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 26th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 8th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 19th