Power Rankings Update: Tier 6 (Part 1)
TIER 6: REBUILDING
In a typical year, I would be less kind and title this tier “tanking.” However, I don’t think that accurately describes the state of the majority of tier 6 teams this season. No question, each of these teams is playing for the future. However, each team in this tier either has legitimate building blocks already in place, established NBA players who can positively contribute to winning, or some combination of both. There will be real pathways for growth and development in tier 6 this season, and each of these teams has some reason for their fans to be excited to watch, even this year.
All that nicety out of the way, let’s be clear - come trade deadline season, tier 6 teams are in a race to the bottom of the league. Any veterans on expiring contracts who can fetch a decent return in trade should be moved, and players with any type of nagging injury should get a head start on the offseason. Nonetheless, through the meat of the year, there are plenty of reasons to watch tier 6. Rebuilds are hopeful, and young players in the NBA typically represent an entertaining roller coaster.
*For a refresher on the the layout of this power rankings update, click here
**All stats courtesy of basketballreference.com or NBA.com unless stated otherwise
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 50-32 (4th in West)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 20th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 1st
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 9th
Current Metrics:
Record: 15-26 (13th in West)
Offensive Rating: 29th
Defensive Rating: 8th
Net Rating: 25th
Team Overview: Better Luck Next Year
After back to back seasons of 50+ wins, 2023-24 has been a completely lost year for the Grizzlies. The main culprits, of course, are suspension (Ja Morant) and injury (everyone else AND Ja Morant).
Memphis knew they would be without Morant for their first 25 games coming into the year, but they were dealt another blow when starting center Steven Adams went down for the season in training camp. Once play began, Luke Kennard and Marcus Smart also went down, and the Grizzlies floundered their way to a 6-19 start.
There was a brief moment of hope when Morant returned and the Grizz immediately reeled off 4 straight wins, but the star point guard only made it 5 more games before learning that he would need season-ending surgery to repair a torn labrum. That news was almost immediately followed by two more gut punches: Smart sustained a finger injury that will keep him sidelined through February, and Desmond Bane will also be out of action into March with an ankle injury.
Where I Was Right: Faith in the Defense
Even with all the instability and ineptitude in their rotation, Memphis has managed to maintain their strong defensive identity. The main reason for that is reigning Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr., who has played in all but two Grizzlies’ games and is turning in another strong campaign as a rim protector. His presence in the paint allows Memphis to be extra aggressive on the perimeter (3rd best opponent turnover rate (13.6%)), as Grizzlies guards and wings know they have help behind them even if they get beat. All in all, opponents shoot just 63.1% in the restricted area against Memphis, which is the third-lowest mark in the NBA.
Defense is what led the Grizz to the Western conference 2 seed in each of the two seasons prior to 2023-24. It reflects well on head coach Taylor Jenkins that he has managed to cobble together another good unit this year, because it shows that he has not lost any buy-in from his players through all of the losing. If and when Memphis is able to return to full strength and playoff contention, it will still be because of the work they do on the point prevention end.
Where I Was Wrong: Staying Afloat
I drastically overestimated Memphis’ ability to maintain competence on the offensive end without Morant. In prior years, when Morant missed time due to injury, the Grizzlies still managed to win games: The Grizz were 21-5 without Morant in ‘21-’22, and 11-10 in ‘22-23. I believed it reasonable that the supporting cast would keep Memphis near the middle of the pack on the offensive end, and that the defense would be good enough for them to be hovering around .500 when Morant returned.
Obviously, the additional absences on top of Morant’s are part of the reason why the Grizz could not remain competitive. However, Jackson Jr. has been healthy all year, and Desmond Bane was playing the best basketball of his career before his most recent injury. Their high-usage offensive players have been good enough for at least mediocrity: It’s the rest of the roster that is not pulling their weight.
Other than Santi Adama, who has developed into a nice bench option as a stretch big, none of Memphis’ recent first round draft picks (Ziaire Williams, David Roddy, Jake LaRavia) have proven capable of providing rotation minutes. This has completely sapped their bench unit, which used to be a massive strength when they had players like Kyle Anderson and De’Anthony Melton.
Outlook Going Forward: How Good of a Pick Can They Get?
Memphis is still on the periphery of the play-in race at 15-26, but with the number of injuries they have sustained to key players, I don’t see any way they can remain in the race. Their offense without Morant and Bane figures to be particularly rough: Their starting point guard (Jacob Gilyard) is on a two-way contract, and the rest of the roster is light on ball handling, shooting, and shot creation. For as long as Bane is out, this will likely be the worst offense in the NBA.
Even if Memphis can somehow stay within striking distance of the tenth seed in the West, I still don’t see a great reason to rush Bane and Smart back into the lineup. Heading into 2024-25, the Grizzlies will have a playoff-caliber core of Morant, Bane and Jackson Jr. all under contract and in the prime of their careers. By punting the rest of this season, Memphis has a chance to add a premium draft pick, which they can either use on additional young talent or look to package for a veteran.
That’s not to say the Grizzlies can just sit on their hands and pretend like this year never happened. Their complete lack of depth has been exposed, and they need to figure out some way to re-fortify the bench unit. Most of that work will need to be done over the summer, but they can get a head start by giving as many minutes as possible to the young players they currently have and trying to develop them for the years to come.
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 24-58 (15th in West)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 27th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 28th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 28th
Current Metrics:
Record: 11-29 (14th in West)
Offensive Rating: 30th
Defensive Rating: 22nd
Net Rating: 28th
Team Overview: Just Your Average Tank Job
In comparison to many of their companions in tier 6, the Blazers have looked downright competent this season. That’s especially true when taking into account the turmoil they have seen in their rotation, where basically every key piece other than Jerami Grant has missed extended time.
Portland was never meant to be competitive this season: They announced that fact to the world when they traded Damian Lillard over the summer. That being said, this roster is not completely bereft of talent, as players like Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, DeAndre Ayton and Malcolm Brogdon have all contributed to winning at a high level at some point in their respective careers. Those veteran pieces are enough to form a core of stability around Portland’s building blocks for the future, guards Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson. The real underbelly of the Blazers’ roster lies with their reserves, as head coach Chauncey Billups has frequently turned to players on two-way contracts to play significant minutes.
Where I Was Right: Anfernee Simons
In my team preview, I highlighted Anfernee Simons as a player who might fly under the national radar in 2023-24. That prediction proved especially salient when Simons was injured in Portland’s first game of the season, missing the next 18 games and returning once the Trail Blazers’ season was already down the drain.
Quietly, Simons is posting another very effective season as a scorer. He remains one of the league’s best high-volume three-point shooters, making 38.3% of his 9.3 attempts per 36 minutes. He’s also improved his ability to get to the free throw line, averaging a career high 5.1 FTA per 36 minutes. Playmaking, long focal point for critics of his game, has been better as well: He’s upped his assist rate from 18.6% to 26.0% while maintaining his turnover rate (10.2% -> 10.1%).
Simons inability to consistently score at the rim limits his efficiency, and he remains one of the worst defensive guards in the league. As a result, he’s overstretched in his current role as the lead dog in Portland. However, I believe he could be a sneaky addition as a scoring sixth-man type on a contender, and he’s locked up under contract for two seasons beyond 2023-24. It might not be until the offseason, but Portland should be able to get real value for Simons via trade.
Where I Was Wrong: Anointing the Backcourt
Despite having more proven players in Simons and Brogdon on the roster, I advocated for Billups to turn over starting backcourt duties to Portland’s two most recent lottery picks, Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson. I still believe in the upside of these two, but neither has had the type of emergent season that cements a player as a no-doubt franchise building block.
Unfortunately for the Blazers, it’s been a major struggle in year one for Henderson, who has been in and out of the lineup with injuries but also one of the worst players in basketball when he is on the court. Henderson’s combination of high usage (25.8%) and extreme inefficiency (45.2% true shooting) has absolutely slaughtered Portland’s offense. The Trail Blazers score 106.7 points per 100 possessions when Henderson is on the court, which ranks in the 7th percentile among all players in the NBA.
In comparison, Sharpe has been significantly better, posting 52.4% true shooting on 22.2% usage, respectable considering his age and the lack of talent around him. Sharpe has also taken on much more playmaking responsibility, nearly doubling his assist rate (7.9% -> 13.9%) from his rookie year. Even still, in the context of the league as a whole, he’s a long way from being providing positive value as either a scorer or a passer.
Ultimately, Simons remains well ahead of Sharpe and Henderson in Portland’s pecking order, and he should be. However, if Portland is going to break through with their new core, they will need at least one of Sharpe or Henderson to prove capable of filling the role of lead offensive engine, as Simons’ ceiling is limited in that role.
Outlook Going Forward: Move the Vets
I expect Portland to continue to rotate their key players in and out of the lineup to ensure that the losses keep piling up, as this is an organization that has proven in recent seasons that it understands the value of draft lottery positioning. The alarming number of awful teams in the NBA in 2023-24 makes it unlikely that the Blazers will sink down to the league’s worst record, but they should remain comfortably in the bottom five or six.
Although Portland is reportedly uninterested in moving Jerami Grant, I would advise that the front office solicit offers for every player on the roster outside of Henderson and Sharpe. I do recognize the value of making sure there’s a functional team around their recent and future draft picks, but there’s also an opportunity cost to holding onto veteran players for too long. With Grant in particular, he’s 29 years old and stands to make over $30 million for each of the four seasons following this one. He’s only going to decrease in value as he ages, so the Blazers would be well-served to move quickly, despite having him under team control for the foreseeable future.
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 27-55 (14th in West)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 28th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 27th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 26th
Current Metrics:
Record: 7-33 (15th in West)
Offensive Rating: 28th
Defensive Rating: 24th
Net Rating: 26th
Team Overview: Thank God for the Pistons
If it weren’t for Detroit, there would likely be a much greater national focus on the Spurs, who have legitimately been one of the worst teams in recent NBA history. It probably shouldn’t be surprising that San Antonio is vying for their second consecutive #1 overall pick: This is one of the youngest teams in the league, and they have major holes in their roster that they made no effort to fix last summer.
However, when a team possesses a talent as highly regarded as Victor Wembanyama, it would be nice for them to at least show some modicum of a pulse. This is especially true for the Spurs, who have a hall of fame coach at the helm in Gregg Popovich and are still widely regarded as one of the premier organizations in the league, even after a few down years.
San Antonio has been a little more respectable in the last month, as Popovich has shifted to playing Wembanyama at center, allowing the Spurs defense to be competent in his minutes. However, the overall picture is still bad, and this is a team that is multiple impact additions away from even sniffing the playoffs.
Where I Was Right: Searching for Support Pieces
I wrote in my team preview that the most important part of this Spurs’ season would be determining their identity around Wembanyama. His combination of size and skill is unique, which means the ceiling is sky-high. On the other hand, there is no established blueprint for how to build a team around him.
By starting the season with 6’9” Jeremy Sochan transitioning from power forward to point guard, it seems Popovich’s first attempt was to overwhelm teams with sheer size and length at every position on the court. He also played Wembanyama primarily at power forward, allowing him to roam as a help defender and protecting him from the physicality of the paint. Neither of those things worked: San Antonio’s offense was cluttered and turnover-prone due to the lack of shooting and ball-handling, and teams were able to pull Wemby away from the rim on the defensive end far too easily.
The Spurs’ lack of capable passers is particularly striking when watching them play. There have been countless times when a simple lob near the rim or an accurate outlet pass would have resulted in an easy dunk for Wembanyama, but his teammates failed to execute. I believe that finding a capable point guard and improving the floor spacing around Wemby is the best way to maximize him on the offensive end. Once he gets used to playing out of pick and roll with a spaced floor, his ability to both roll and pop with equal effectiveness will be a nightmare for teams to defend.
Where I Was Wrong: Faith in Popovich
Prior to this season, there were signs that Gregg Popovich was starting to lose his fastball. Many thought he was coasting towards retirement, but instead, he signed a record-setting extension over the summer. Once I saw that type of commitment for the future from both Popovich and the Spurs, I believed we would see a revitalized version of the Hall of Famer, and I was willing to write off the last few seasons as a blip on the radar.
Unfortunately, it’s starting to appear as though the modern game has started to pass Popovich by. Admittedly, he is working with an extremely young roster that is light on overall talent and depth. However, he’s made puzzling lineup decisions all year long, and he’s been very slow to adjust even when it’s clear that his initial inclinations are wrong.
There’s still a ton of time for the Spurs to get things pointed in the right direction with Wembanyama, and Popovich has more than enough good will in the bank to be given the benefit of the doubt. However, if the team adds talent this summer and either continues to lose or Wembanyama begins to stagnate, there may need to be some very uncomfortable conversations in San Antonio.
Outlook Going Forward: Signs of Life
The rest of this season will be measured by Wembanyama’s continued development, as well as San Antonio’s ability to develop an identity around him. Victor himself needs to be better, but it’s hard to be too critical of him when the ecosystem around him is as dysfunctional as it has been.
I wouldn’t be totally shocked to see San Antonio make a minor addition or two at the deadline, and they’ve even been linked to some bigger moves like a reunion with Dejounte Murray. In order for this to be a productive summer, the Spurs desperately need to understand exactly what type of players they should be looking to find in order to squeeze the most out of Wembanyama.