Power Rankings Update: Tier 4 (Part 1)
TIER 4: TEAMS EXPECTING TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS
In a typical year, tier 4 is a mixed bag of veteran-ish teams wandering aimlessly through the NBA’s middle ground and exciting young teams on the organizational upswing. This year largely follows that pattern, with the interesting wrinkle that a few of the teams in this tier can be reasonably grouped in both of the above categories. A successful, B grade season for a tier 4 team is making it through the play-in (or avoiding all together) and putting up a reasonable fight in a first round playoff series against a more talented team. Most NBA seasons see at least one tier 4 team put the pieces together (or hit the high end of variance) and make the leap up into tier 3 (i.e. 2022-23 Sacramento Kings). However, the more common tier shift is the downgrade from tier 4 to tier 5, resulting from a key injury, player regression, poor coaching, roster mismanagement, or some combination of the above (i.e 2022-23 Toronto Raptors, 2022-23 Chicago Bulls).
Tier 4 teams can be some of the more fascinating teams to follow throughout the regular season because each regular season win means so much and they are usually filled with players who have a point to prove. At the same time, these teams can be infuriating because there are often varying degrees of poor coaching, front office desperation and players who have a point to prove. The introduction of the play-in tournament has also really juiced tier 4 - these are the teams who have by far the most to play for in late March.
*For a refresher on the the layout of this power rankings update, click here
**All stats courtesy of basketballreference.com or NBA.com unless stated otherwise
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 51-31 (3rd in East)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 16th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 3rd
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 7th
Current Metrics:
Record: 22-15 (5th in East)
Offensive Rating: 18th
Defensive Rating: 8th
Net Rating: 12th
Team Overview: Stop and Start
It’s been a disjointed, injury-marred start to the season in Cleveland, but thanks to a recent hot streak, the Cavs have managed to stay afloat. The four-man core of Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen was a regular season wrecking crew in 2022-23, but that hasn’t been the case in 23-24. Some of that is due to injury - Garland and Mobley are both currently out and have each missed 15+ games already - but even when the Cavs full contingent has been together, they’ve struggled. In fact, it’s often been when at least one of Cleveland’s “core four” has been missing that the Cavs have been at their best.
It’s fair to question if there is too much overlap between Garland and Mitchell in the backcourt, and Mobley and Allen in the frontcourt, for all four to thrive. Take this most recent stretch as an example: Cleveland’s 9-3 run over the last three weeks has come with both Mobley and Garland sidelined, and Allen has seen a noticeable jump in production while playing as the lone big.
Where I Was Right: Mobley Questions
In my preview of the Cavs, I theorized that Evan Mobley’s personal development would be the key to unlocking a higher level of play for the entire team. I wrote that while Donovan Mitchell is currently Cleveland’s best player, Mobley would need to ascend beyond Mitchell in order to give the Cavs a realistic path to championship contention.
Thus far, I believe my theory of the case for Cleveland has been proven correct. Mobley remains an elite defensive player, but his offense hasn’t developed enough since his rookie year, and as a result, the Cavs still lack the bonafide top-10 type player that most contenders need. Mobley has improved his finishing around the rim and his free throw shooting this year, which is helping his overall efficiency. However, he remains a complete non-factor from beyond the arc, and very little of his offense is self-created. He’s a good passer for a big but not effective enough to have offense run through him, and he doesn’t dominate smaller defenders in the post or on the glass.
Even if Mobley’s offense never takes a leap, he’s an excellent player because of how valuable he is on defense. However, if he can’t become Cleveland’s featured star, then the Cavs are stuck. They gave up so much for Mitchell that they are very limited in their ability to add talent via either the draft or further trades. They are a good team, but their breakout to a great team remains reliant on Mobley.
Where I Was Wrong: Regular Season Powerhouse
Coming into the year, I viewed Cleveland as one of the safer bets to rack up regular season wins. While I was skeptical of their playoff ceiling, I thought their defense would remain elite, and they would be able to squeeze enough production out of the offense to clear the 50 win mark for the second consecutive season.
Thus far, that has not been the case. Again, injuries have been a major disruption, and it’s possible that the Cavs will really get rolling at some point over the season’s second half. However, I think it was premature to assume that the cohesion we saw from this group last season would carry over in perpetuity.
While their defense has once again been good (especially when Allen and Mobley share the court), it’s not the dominant force it was in ‘22-23. It’s been a purposeful give-and-take for head coach J.B. Bickerstaff: He’s had to minimize the roles of defensive players like Isaac Okoro in order to juice their floor spacing with offense-only pieces like Sam Merrill. Cleveland’s lack of capable two-way players means that they will always be playing this balancing act between the two sides of the ball.
Outlook Going Forward: Shaky Footing
Much of Cleveland’s offseason centered around fortifying the supporting cast around the aforementioned four players, and for the most part the Cavs’ role players have done their part. If and when Cleveland gets healthy for an extended stretch, their ceiling will be determined by whether or not they can rediscover the chemistry between their most talented players.
If they fail to separate themselves from the mid-tier of the East over the next few weeks, the Donovan Mitchell trade rumblings will only get louder. While I don’t think Cleveland will move Mitchell before the offseason, it’s a situation to monitor: The star guard can become a free agent following the ‘24-25 season, and to this point, he has shut down any extension talks with the team. Between the imperfect fit of their current backcourt and how much the Cavs forfeited via trade to acquire Mitchell, losing him for no return is not an option. If the Cavs can’t get an assurance from Mitchell that he’s committed to Cleveland for the long term, then a trade will come, be it now or later.
I dropped Cleveland from tier 3 to tier 4 mainly because I see a lower floor for this group than I did in the preseason. I still view them as likely to make the playoffs, and I think they have a decent chance of getting to the second round, depending on their first round matchup. However, with the struggles they have had in the regular season, they haven’t been the regular season juggernaut I thought they might be, which means one more injury or an extended run of poor play could have them in the play-in tournament.
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 41-41 (11th in West)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 12th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 21st
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 18th
Current Metrics:
Record: 23-15 (6th in West)
Offensive Rating: 11th
Defensive Rating: 6th
Net Rating: 7th
Team Overview: Heating Up
Don’t look now, but New Orleans is starting to play like one of the NBA’s elite teams. Since December 11, the Pelicans are 11-4, and their +14.3 net rating is the best in the league. They’ve largely flown under the radar, but after their 36-point pounding of the Warriors in San Francisco on Wednesday, the NBA world is starting to take notice of the young Pels.
Of course, part of the reason why most are slow to buy in on this team is because we’ve seen this narrative before. In the rare times New Orleans has managed to be completely healthy over the past season and a half, they have proven they are a very dangerous team. The same is the case this year: Their recent success coincides with returns to the lineup for Trey Murphy, Jose Alvarado and CJ McCollum, while the injury troubles that have plagued Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson throughout their careers have been kept at bay in 2023-24. The last month has shown that this team, when healthy, is highly talented, very deep, and capable of stacking up regular season wins.
Where I Was Right: Building Through Zion
Over the summer, there was some chatter that the Pelicans might be looking to trade Zion Williamson. Between his inability to stay healthy and his reportedly strained relationship with both the organization and his teammates, the thought was that a fresh start might be better for both sides. I argued that while Williamson’s career had certainly not lived up to his pre-draft hype, his on-court output was still quite tantalizing, and that any realistic path to championship contention for New Orleans still relied on Zion finally putting all the pieces together and realizing his immense potential.
It’s not like 2023-24 has been a definitive statement from Williamson. In fact, it’s probably been his professional season from a per-minute production standpoint. His per game scoring and his true shooting are both career lows, and the Pelicans have actually been 3.7 points per 100 possessions worse when he’s on-court as compared to when he sits.
Why then, am I taking a victory lap on my preseason take? It’s because the Pelicans have played at a high enough level that it’s not crazy to think a superstar can take this team on a deep playoff run. Williamson hasn’t been that player this season, but he has been in the past, and betting on him to rediscover that form is still a higher probability gamble for New Orleans than trying to find that true superstar elsewhere.
Where I Was Wrong: Defensive Regression
About a month ago, I wrote about the anomaly that is the Pelicans’ defense. Due to their propensity to allow a ton of three-pointers to opponents, I theorized that most of their stellar point prevention was based on opponent shooting luck, and that their defense was bound to regress.
So far, that has not been the case. New Orleans still allows the most three point attempts per game (39.1) of any team in the league. However, opponents remain ice cold, converting on just 33.7% of those looks, which is the second-lowest mark in the NBA. New Orleans is holding steady as the league’s 6th-ranked defense (112.4 DRTG), and they’ve been completely dominant on the defensive end during their current hot streak.
Considering they posted a nearly identical 112.5 DRTG over the entirety of 2022-23, and held opponents to an equally frosty 33.9% 3FG, we have nearly a season and a half of sample to work with. I can no longer write off the Pelicans defense as fluky: It’s time to give them their flowers. New Orleans has a ton of size and length among their perimeter defenders, and they are well-coached to provide aggressive gap help. They protect the rim at all costs, and it has been working.
Outlook Going Forward: Not Ready to Trust…Yet
I can’t fully trust that the Pelicans health luck will hold, which is the only reason why New Orleans remains in tier 4. If I believed that both Williamson and Ingram were going to keep their current pace and play 70+ games each, this team would comfortably sit in tier 3, but history tells me not to be fooled. We saw New Orleans fall apart after a good start as recently as last year, when they started 23-12 but finished the season in a 19-28 freefall and ended up missing the playoffs.
If the Pelicans can keep it together, they are going to win a lot of games and they may even push for a top 4 seed in the very competitive West. It will be fascinating to see how Ingram, Williamson and the rest of the team performs in a playoff setting, as while I don’t think they’re a serious threat to make a deep run, I also have very little information to base that assumption off.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 49-33 (5th in West)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 14th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 5th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 8th
Current Metrics:
Record: 19-20 (10th in West)
Offensive Rating: 24th
Defensive Rating: 12th
Net Rating: 21st
Team Overview: Underperforming
After their strong close to the 2022-23 regular season and their subsequent run to the Western Conference Finals, there was renewed optimism in LA. The Lakers doubled down on the team they remade at the 2023 trade deadline, re-signing playoff stars Rui Hachimura and Austin Reaves, and bringing back deadline acquisition D’Angelo Russell. There was no obvious third star for LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but this looked like the most cohesive and deep roster the Lakers had assembled since before the disastrous Russell Westbrook trade.
Instead, it’s been as rocky as ever, even with James and Davis having healthy and productive seasons. The Lakers’ supporting cast has been some combination of injured and ineffective all year long, and head coach Darvin Ham has frantically shuffled through lineup combinations in search of consistent production. The Lakers flashed their ceiling during their In-Season Tournament run, but since taking home the title in Vegas they have sputtered, playing to a 5-11 record in their last 16 games.
Where I Was Right: Built Through the D
In the fleeting moments where the Lakers have looked like a formidable team, it’s been a familiar formula: Anthony Davis walling off the rim, and the rest of the team using size and strength to dominate in the paint. Even while missing expected defensive contributors like Jarred Vanderbilt and Gabe Vincent for large stretches of the season, the Lakers have managed to post the league’s 12th-best DRTG, and it was through their defense that they were dominant at times in the In-Season Tournament.
James is still an intelligent defender, and Cam Reddish has been surprisingly competent at the point of attack. However, it’s Davis’ brilliance that carries them. He’s still one of the best defenders in the NBA, capable of completely taking over games and shifting entire opponents' game plans when he’s really locked in.
Just like many Laker teams of old, Ham is caught between a rock and a hard place with many of his lineup decisions because the Lakers have so few players who can both shoot and defend. He’s tried his best to mix and match, but the makeup of this roster is a real challenge. I still think he needs to lean towards defense, because even the Lakers’ best offensive lineups are going to be outgunned in shootouts by the top competition. The Lakers path to contention remains through pushing their defense to a top-5 caliber unit.
Where I Was Wrong: Betting on Continuity
I was fooled by the late-season success of the Lakers last year: I thought they had finally found a formula that would allow them to churn out wins. My main concern was the health of LeBron and AD, as I believed that the Lakers rotation was fairly deep, and talented enough to perform in limited roles.
It simply has not been the case. Russell has been a disaster, getting demoted to a bench role. Hachimura has been injured and inconsistent, as has Vanderbilt. The loss of Dennis Schröder has been massive, as Gabe Vincent has barely seen the floor due to injury and Max Christie isn’t ready for NBA minutes. Even Austin Reaves, who looked like a breakout star over the summer for Team USA, has been more good than great, and his defense has regressed enough to where he’s a true liability at the point of attack.
Maybe a combination of slightly better health, slightly better production, and a minor deadline addition or two makes everything fall into place, but I’m having a hard time seeing it. There are serious structural flaws with this roster that cannot be papered over, even by the Lakers’ considerable starpower.
Outlook Going Forward: No Choice But Forward
Because James and Davis have both been playing at an All-NBA level, I was tempted to leave the Lakers in tier 2. Those two remain one of the league’s most potent duos, and they have plenty of playoff experience and playoff wins under their collective belt.
However, it’s extremely alarming to me that the Lakers are hovering around .500 in a season where their two stars haven’t missed extended time. In my eyes, it’s much more likely that one or both of them goes down at some point over the season’s second half. If that happens and the Lakers have no cushion of wins in the bank, I don’t see any way they keep themselves afloat and in the playoff mix.
For that reason, I actually think it’s more likely than not that the Lakers miss the playoffs altogether. I’m sure they’ll be linked to all the major trade candidates, and they may even make a move, but I don’t see an available path that leads them to a consistent stretch of solid play. The presence of James and Davis make them more dangerous than your average play-in team, but in order to have a true contender-level ceiling, you first have to get into the dance.
*Editor’s Note: This is part 1 of the two-part Tier 4 Update, part 2 will be published in the coming days*