Power Rankings Update: Tier 4 (Part 2)
TIER 4: TEAMS EXPECTING TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS
In a typical year, tier 4 is a mixed bag of veteran-ish teams wandering aimlessly through the NBA’s middle ground and exciting young teams on the organizational upswing. This year largely follows that pattern, with the interesting wrinkle that a few of the teams in this tier can be reasonably grouped in both of the above categories. A successful, B grade season for a tier 4 team is making it through the play-in (or avoiding all together) and putting up a reasonable fight in a first round playoff series against a more talented team. Most NBA seasons see at least one tier 4 team put the pieces together (or hit the high end of variance) and make the leap up into tier 3 (i.e. 2022-23 Sacramento Kings). However, the more common tier shift is the downgrade from tier 4 to tier 5, resulting from a key injury, player regression, poor coaching, roster mismanagement, or some combination of the above (i.e 2022-23 Toronto Raptors, 2022-23 Chicago Bulls).
Tier 4 teams can be some of the more fascinating teams to follow throughout the regular season because each regular season win means so much and they are usually filled with players who have a point to prove. At the same time, these teams can be infuriating because there are often varying degrees of poor coaching, front office desperation and players who have a point to prove. The introduction of the play-in tournament has also really juiced tier 4 - these are the teams who have by far the most to play for in late March.
*For a refresher on the the layout of this power rankings update, click here
**All stats courtesy of basketballreference.com or NBA.com unless stated otherwise
INDIANA PACERS
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 40-42 (7th in East)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 13th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 23rd
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 21st
Current Metrics:
Record: 23-15 (4th in East)
Offensive Rating: 1st
Defensive Rating: 26th
Net Rating: 10th
Team Overview: Hold the Fort
When Tyrese Haliburton crumpled to the ground on January 8th with what looked like a serious leg injury, Pacers fans and really the entirety of the NBA world held their breath. The season for an ascendant team and an All-NBA level superstar seemingly hung in the balance.
Thankfully, Haliburton “only” suffered a hamstring strain, which will sideline him for a minimum of two weeks, more likely a month. He figures to miss somewhere between 10-15 games: Damaging for the Pacers’ playoff hopes but certainly not a death blow.
Indiana has managed to build their impressive record this season largely on the back of Haliburton’s preposterously efficient shooting and truly elite playmaking. He’s an MVP candidate whose impact on his team and the Pacers’ league-best offense cannot be overstated.
Indiana is off to a good start, as they’ve won the first two games that Haliburton has missed. This is the most critical stretch of their schedule: If they can manage to avoid a total meltdown, they should still be within striking distance of the playoffs once their star point guard returns.
Where I Was Right: Transition Terrors
The success Indiana had in 2022-23 when they played at a breakneck pace gave us a glance into how they wanted to structure their team. That was only fortified by their offseason moves, when they added quality transition players in Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin. In my preview, I predicted that one of their greatest competitive advantages was going to be their pace, as they could catch teams off guard and wear them out.
Indeed, the Pacers have leaned in to playing fast. They play at the second-quickest pace in the league, which is a major reason why they have the best offense in basketball. Rick Carlisle has gotten every player on his team to commit to sprinting the floor, and Haliburton’s passing rewards them with easy buckets at the rim and wide-open three point attempts.
They lead the league in assists per game, yet they still rank 11th in turnover rate. This is a major credit to Haliburton, who has a whopping 50.9% assist rate compared to just a 12.0% TOV.
Where I Was Wrong: Questioning Carlisle
I’ve never doubted Rick Carlisle’s competence as a coach, and during his time with the Pacers, he’s once again proved his ability to mold his tactics to the strengths of his team. However, I did wonder if he would prioritize development at the expense of winning with this year’s team, given where Indiana sits in the team-building cycle.
I should have known: Carlisle has had absolutely no problem putting his best players and lineups on the court. He moved 2022 #6 overall pick Bennedict Mathurin to a bench role very early on, understanding that Buddy Hield’s three-point shooting was a better fit with the starting group. He’s consistently shuffled through different frontcourt starters, but he’s yet to try out 2023 #7 overall pick Jarace Walker. Minutes will not be gifted under Carlisle, even to players in whom Indiana has invested significant draft capital.
While it’s definitely helping the Pacers win now, it is fair to wonder what the true priority for Indiana as an organization should be. While they have a good team, they need more top-end talent around Haliburton to compete for a championship.
Outlook Going Forward: On the Rise
If Haliburton had not gotten injured, Indiana would have been at the top of tier 4. This is an elite offense with an excellent coach, and the Pacers are also well equipped to make deadline moves to further bolster this roster.
Now that Haliburton is down, I fully expect Indiana to slide back in the standings. While Indy has other good players, their defensive struggles mandate that the offense must be at a top 5 level for them to win games. Halburton’s on/off splits are jarring: Indiana drops from a 126.1 ORTG to a 117.9 when he sits.
If his missed time is minimal and Indy manages to stay afloat, this is a dangerous playoff team. If they can play their way into either the four or five seed and avoid the top three teams in the East, a first round series win is a legitimate possibility for the Pacers. Carrying that momentum into what figures to be a critical offseason could set them up for a true run at contention as Haliburton enters his prime.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 54-28 (2nd in West)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 7th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 4th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 2nd
Current Metrics:
Record: 18-21 (12th in West)
Offensive Rating: 11th
Defensive Rating: 25th
Net Rating: 18th
Team Overview: Fall of an Empire
If 2022-23 felt like an underachievement for the Warriors, I can’t even imagine what the vibes in San Francisco must be in 2023-24. After an encouraging 6-2 start to the season, Golden State is 12-19 in their last two months of play, and they currently sit outside of the Western conference play-in picture, let alone the playoff picture.
The Warriors have battled declines in production from Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson and Kevon Looney, self-destruction from Draymond Green, and rotation-related internal strife. While Stephen Curry is still playing at an All-NBA level, his supporting cast has let him down in a major way. That includes head coach Steve Kerr, who has seemingly lost his trademark people-management magic this season: His endless shuffling of the rotation has yet to unearth a consistently successful group and has left players frustrated with the lack of stability.
Where I Was Right: Changing the Guard
About a month ago, I wrote that it was time for Kerr to finally entrust recent Warriors draft picks Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga with larger roles. In the games that have followed, Kerr has made moderate lineup changes but has yet to fully pull the plug on his vets. Golden State’s record has continued to spiral, and there is increasing evidence that Kerr is losing the trust of his team.
While we don’t have definitive evidence that turning to the youth will lead to wins, we do have substantial proof that failing to do so is a losing formula. Even if the on-court fortunes of the team do not change, making the switch will at least allow both Kerr and the front office to fully understand what they have in their development pipeline. This is critical intel: Without it, Golden State may continue to find themselves caught in between building for the present and the future, which is a precarious spot for an organization.
Where I Was Wrong: Literally Everywhere
None of my preseason previews have been less prescient than Golden State’s: I thought this team would be re-focused and re-settled after a chaotic season in 2022-23. I had the Warriors as a dominant regular season team (2nd in net rating), and when I combined that with their collective playoff pedigree, tier 1 contention was my projection.
My biggest miss was Golden State’s defense. Obviously, Draymond Green appearing in just 15 out of 39 games is a major issue, but his absence isn’t the only reason why the Warriors have the league's 25th-ranked unit. The decline of Wiggins and Thompson has sapped their once-potent wing defense, and Looney’s inability to contribute on the offensive end has limited his minutes, and thus his impact as a rim protector. The Warriors foul far too much (25th in FT/FGA), and they lack athleticism. They rank 26th in opponent TOV%, and their best defensive playmaker (Gary Payton II) is fighting through another injury-ravaged season.
Outlook Going Forward:
Green is set to return from his suspension, and he’s been publicly contrite for the harm he has caused his team. The Warriors desperately need his defensive presence, and it’s possible that a rejuvenated Draymond could be just the spark Golden State needs to turn around the season. If it isn’t, it’s hard to see the path back to playoff contention, as this is a deeply flawed roster without an easily available quick fix.
Given that the brightest lights in an otherwise dim season have been flashes from youngsters like Poziemski, Kuminga and Moody, it seems likely that the Warriors are about to enter a period of turnover. My best guess is that the current group plays out the string this year, and that the big changes come in the offseason. However, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Golden State gets moving at the trade deadline by trying to find takers for the outsized salaries of Wiggins or Chris Paul.
I’m keeping Golden State in tier 4 until I see definitive evidence that Curry and Green are unable to transcend the turmoil around them. As long as the Warriors can stay within striking distance of the 8 seed, they have to be considered a threat to make it through to the playoffs. However, an injury to Curry or another transgression from Green could lead to a total tank job, like we saw from Golden State in 2019-20. Without question, it’s a season and an era on the brink.
HOUSTON ROCKETS
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 35-47 (12th in West)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 24th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 17th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 23rd
Current Metrics:
Record: 19-19 (10th in West)
Offensive Rating: 21st
Defensive Rating: 6th
Net Rating: 14th
Team Overview: Competing Every Night
For the past three seasons, Houston could barely be considered an NBA team. Not only were they non-competitive, but their organizational culture was so inconsistent that they failed to develop players and establish a style of play, both critical elements of a successful rebuild.
By hiring Ime Udoka and signing veterans like Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, the Rockets ushered in a new era this offseason. The personnel changes have played immediate dividends, as Houston has established a tough, defensive identity. A young core is emerging as well, as Alperen Sengun has broken out as a star and Jabari Smith Jr. has taken a significant step up in his second season.
Having a chance to win every night is nice, but the true success in Houston thus far is that they’ve laid the groundwork for their future. Houston still needs talent, especially on the offensive end, but they have established a consistent baseline of effort and discipline.
Where I Was Right: Hope for Jabari
Long expected to be the #1 overall pick in the 2022 draft, Jabari Smith Jr.’s NBA career got off to a rocky start when the Magic made a late pivot to Paolo Banchero and Smith Jr. slipped down to Houston at #3. Between Banchero’s Rookie of the Year campaign and an underwhelming season for Smith Jr. for an awful Rockets team, there was understandable negativity surrounding Smith Jr. heading into 2023-24.
It hasn’t been a superstar breakout, but there have been undeniable improvements for the second-year forward. He’s upped his true shooting from 51.4% to 59.2%, thanks in large part to greatly improved three-point accuracy (30.7% - > 38.7% 3FG). He’s also an excellent rebounder at power forward (10.1 rebounds per 36 minutes), and his length and athleticism makes him a quality secondary rim protector. Udoka has experimented with Smith Jr. playing center, and he’s largely held his own, which is impressive for a 20-year old who still needs to add weight to his frame.
Smith Jr. is rarely tasked to create his own shot, and he hasn’t shown much reason to believe that playmaking for himself or others will ever be a huge part of his game. As a result, his ceiling is probably somewhat limited. However, Smith Jr. is proving that he is a defensively versatile forward who shoots it well enough to adequately space the floor in any lineup. In other words, he is becoming a player that all 30 NBA teams could use.
Where I Was Wrong: Jalen Green Breakout
In his first two seasons, 2021 #2 overall pick Jalen Green put up big counting stats, but was ultimately one of the most negatively impactful players in the NBA due to his combination of high usage and low efficiency. In the preseason, I theorized that a more stable ecosystem around him would allow Green to thrive, and that he could be on the verge of a major year three leap.
Thus far, it hasn’t happened for him. Houston is indeed more stable, and the presence of Fred VanVleet in the backcourt next to him has taken much of the ball handling and playmaking responsibilities off of Green’s plate. However, he remains as inefficient as ever: Green’s 52.9% true shooting is actually the lowest mark of his career, and he is far too reliant on difficult two-point shots. He’s not an asset as a passer (16.2% assist rate, 11.5% TOV), and he’s not strong or intelligent enough to capably defend on the wing.
All in all, Green’s profile is probably more useful coming off the bench, where his volume scoring can carry the Rockets’ second unit. It’s a disappointing outcome given where he was drafted, but as Houston continues their upward ascent, entrusting Green with 25% usage is going to drag them down.
Outlook Going Forward: Fight for the Postseason
As a result of the ill-fated Russell Westbrook/Chris Paul trade, Houston owes their 2024 1st round pick to Oklahoma City unless it falls within the top 4. There’s no incentive for Houston to lose this season, and I expect them to remain competitive on the fringes of the Western conference playoff race for the remainder of the season.
There may even be reason to believe that their ceiling is higher: The Rockets’ 14th-best (+1.2) net rating suggests that Houston’s 19-19 record is not representative of their true team quality. With some better luck in close games, the Rockets could separate themselves from .500 in the second half of the season.
Ultimately, I don’t trust Houston’s offense enough to buy in on them as a no-doubt playoff team. While Sengun and VanVleet can keep them afloat, they need additional firepower on the perimeter to reach the next level.
Regardless of whether or not they advance to the West’s final 8, this season has unquestionably been a positive step for the Rockets. As long as Udoka can continue to implement his vision, the future is bright in Houston.
ORLANDO MAGIC
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Team Overview: Continued Ascent
It’s been an unquestionably positive start to the season for Orlando, as their combination of elite defense and emerging young talent has propelled them to being a playoff-caliber team. Third year head coach Jamahl Mosely looks like a keeper, and the frontcourt duo of Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero is as good of a starting point for building a team as any.
Orlando’s success is all the more impressive considering the adversity they have faced. Key rotation pieces like Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz and Gary Harris have all missed significant time with injury, but Mosely has unlocked the best versions of breakout players like Jalen Suggs and Goga Bitadze.
Unfortunately, much of the Magic’s stellar record was built over the season’s first month and half: On December 1st, they were 14-5. Since that point, Orlando is 7-13, and their -3.4 net rating over that span ranks 22nd. Their strength of schedule has increased in difficulty, and their defense has slipped from elite to solidly above-average, no longer able to transcend their bottom ten offense.
Where I Was Right: Reason to Believe
Even if Orlando’s hot start proves to be less indicative of their true level than their recent struggles, I still believe I was correct in my optimistic outlook on their long-term future. Banchero and (Franz) Wagner are the building blocks for the Magic, and while neither has ascended to an All-Star level yet, it remains realistic to believe that each will be there before long. Banchero in particular projects as a lead offensive engine: He has greatly improved his three-point shooting this season, and he excels at earning free throws, even while working with imperfect spacing due to Orlando’s collective shooting struggles.
In addition to their two forwards, Orlando has found a third member of their core in third-year guard Jalen Suggs. The former #5 overall pick underwhelmed in his first two seasons, and I was skeptical when Moseley inserted him in the starting lineup to begin 2023-24. Suggs has proven me wrong and his head coach right. Suggs has improved both his three-point volume (5.8 3PA -> 7.1 3PA per 36 minutes) and accuracy (32.7% 3FG -> 39.4%), which has allowed him to shift to an off-ball role. It’s here that he thrives, because Suggs has been one of the best defensive guards in the league. He’s got the perfect blend of strength and quickness that allows him to guard across multiple positions, and his tireless effort chasing over screens and harassing ball handlers is a huge part of Orlando’s defensive identity.
Where I Was Wrong: Wendell Carter Jr.
In the preseason, I highlighted Carter Jr. as an essential piece in Orlando’s overall plans. With his ability to space the floor from the center position, and his versatility on defense, I believed that any success Orlando had would be heavily correlated with his presence in their lineup.
I’m still a believer in Carter Jr. overall, but he has not been able to play the role I expected this season. Injuries have limited him to just 13 games played, and the Magic have struggled in those limited minutes. Orlando has been 8 points per 100 possessions worse on offense when Carter Jr. plays than when he sits, and upon his most recent return to the lineup, he was demoted to a bench role. He’s shooting just 42.5% from the field overall, which is nearly 10% worse than his career average.
There’s no doubt that his inability to stay healthy and establish a rhythm with his teammates is affecting his production, and I think it’s fair to say that his numbers would be closer to his career norms if he had played a larger sample size of games. However, injuries are a part of the story for Carter Jr.: He’s missed at least 20 games in every season of his career. If he cannot prove the ability to stay on the court, the Magic may need to question his place as the team’s starting center.
Outlook Going Forward: Future Focused
I expect the Magic to continue to defend, which will keep them competitive on most nights. Unfortunately, I think the offensive issues that have plagued them over the last month or so are very real, and their ceiling is limited as a result. With Franz Wagner out indefinitely due to an ankle injury, I’m expecting Orlando to continue their slide down the standings.
It’s possible that Orlando makes an addition or two at the trade deadline that improves their short-term prospects. If they can find reliable shooting or upgrade at point guard, their offense could rapidly improve. However, any move should not compromise their future flexibility. This is still a rebuild, and the Magic need to keep the long-term top of mind. A playoff berth in 2023-24 would be a huge accomplishment, but the ultimate goal is a much bigger prize.