Power Rankings Update: Tier 2
TIER 2 INTRO: HIGH CEILING TEAMS WITH EXTREME VARIANCE
Teams in tier 2 possess the elite level talent needed for a championship run, but also possess major question marks that could totally sink their season. These teams are much higher variance than their counterparts in either tier 1 or tier 3 - they have the top level outcome of taking out a tier 1 team or even multiple tier 1 teams in the playoffs, but they could just as easily crash and burn and finish the regular season well behind many of the teams in tier 3.
The regular season for each of these teams is about best positioning themselves for a playoff run. Regular season games are far from meaningless, as all of these teams have something to prove, be it team chemistry or rediscovering a formerly demonstrated caliber of play. However, these teams are also likely to choose preserving health or targeting a specific playoff matchup over chasing each and every regular season win. This is the dark horse tier, the teams where it’s not impossible to squint into the future and see them holding up the Larry O’Brien trophy at season's end.
*For a refresher on the the layout of this power rankings update, click here
**All stats courtesy of basketballreference.com or NBA.com unless stated otherwise
LA CLIPPERS
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 45-37 (9th in West)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 9th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 18th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 13th
Current Metrics:
Record: 22-12 (4th in West)
Offensive Rating: 7th
Defensive Rating: 12th
Net Rating: 6th
Team Overview: Quietly Excellent
The Clippers dominated national headlines in the first few weeks of the season by trading significant draft capital to Philadelphia in exchange for disgruntled star James Harden. Early returns on the trade were disastrous: The Clips lost their first 5 games with Harden in uniform, and their -10.2 net rating over that span ranked 29th in basketball. Even after years of underperforming their talent, the national narrative around the Clippers was at an all-time low.
However, Ty Lue adjusted the Clippers starting lineup by moving Russell Westbrook to the bench, and the front office brought in Daniel Theis to fortify the frontcourt. From November 17 on, the Clippers 19-5 record is the best in basketball, and their 6th ranked net rating (+6.2) backs up their status as one of the NBA’s elite teams. Harden, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have found a nice rhythm while sharing the court, and LA has managed to avoid both injury and off-court distraction.
Where I Was Right: Alpha Kawhi
Before the season, I predicted that despite all his injury woes, Kawhi Leonard would still be capable of being the best player on a championship team. While he (like the rest of the team) struggled in the immediate aftermath of the Harden trade, Leonard has turned it on over the last month or so and is performing like a top ten player in basketball. He remains preposterously efficient as a scorer, shooting 43.7% from three to fuel his career best 63.4% true shooting. While his playmaking duties have lessened now that he’s playing next to Harden, he remains as low turnover (7.3% TOV) as any high-usage star in the league. He’s also still an impact defender on the wing, even if he’s no longer a Defensive Player of the Year candidate like he was during his time in San Antonio.
Perhaps most importantly, Leonard has managed to play in 30 out of the Clippers 34 games. When he has missed time, it’s been for rest or minor injury: There have been no lingering issues from the major surgeries in his past. Leonard’s health is crucial because while LA has other excellent players, they remain able to go only as far as Kawhi can take them. With Leonard on court, LA plays at the pace of a 66 win team (+11.9 points per 100 possessions). When he sits, that number dips to -3.4, which is equivalent to a 32 win pace (Cleaning the Glass).
Where I Was Wrong: Doubting the Offense
Following their trade for Harden, I highlighted just how rough the offensive numbers were for LA in his first few games. In that piece, I expressed my skepticism that the Clippers’ offense would improve, citing Harden’s negative impact on Leonard and George, as well as my concerns over the lack of three-point prowess amongst LA’s support players.
Discounting LA’s offensive potential has proven to be premature. In their last 24 games, the Clippers’ 120.6 ORTG ranks 6th in the NBA, and the impact that Harden’s passing has made on this team is tangible. His ability to create open threes for his teammates has helped mitigate their shooting concerns: While the Clips rank just 19th in three point attempts per game, they are shooting 38.5% on those looks, which is 3rd-best in the league. George and Leonard are capable playmakers themselves, but they are particularly deadly when they can play off the ball and function as shooters or drivers against late closeouts. After removing Russell Westbook from the starting lineup, Lue has been able to strike the right balance of floor spacing and intelligence in order to get the most out of the considerable talent at his disposal.
Outlook Going Forward: Still Tier 2…For Now
With the top-tier talent this team possesses, and the level of play they have put forth for the majority of the season, there is a definite argument to be made that they belong in tier 1. If they are able to stay healthy and their chemistry remains in sync, I don’t doubt that they can compete at the highest level in the playoffs.
However, given the injury history for both Leonard and George, it’s impossible to ignore the extremely low floor for this group. Neither one of those players has proven they will make it through an entire playoff run healthy and until they do, it’s fair to have doubts. Additionally, the volatility of any roster that has James Harden on it, or a proud veteran like Russell Westbrook, means that off-court chaos could erupt in LA at any time.
PHOENIX SUNS
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 52-30 (3rd in West)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 2nd
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 15th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 6th
Current Metrics:
Record: 19-16 (9th in West)
Offensive Rating: 11th
Defensive Rating: 17th
Net Rating: 14th
Team Overview: Stuck in Neutral
In the last 12 months, the Suns have completely nuked the roster that got them to within two wins of the 2021 NBA title in order to add stars in Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. Coming into this season, there was understandable excitement about Phoenix’s new big three of Durant, Beal and Devin Booker. Despite questionable surrounding pieces, the top-level talent in Phoenix had many (including myself) naming them as a true contender.
With over two months of the season now in the books, we’ve still yet to see the Suns truly leave the runway. Injury concerns were always going to hover over this team, and they’ve certainly played a huge part in Phoenix’s mediocre start. Beal has appeared in just eleven games, Booker just 26, and Durant has dealt with nagging ailments as well. The rest of Phoenix’s roster has ranged from meh to bad, and head coach Frank Vogel has continuously rotated different players through the rotation in search of consistently positive combinations.
Where I Was Right: Declining Beal
In my pre-season team preview, I questioned whether or not Bradley Beal still had All-Star caliber play left in the tank. To this point in the season, it appears that the signs of decline he showed in his last few years in Washington were indeed terminal.
One could blame Beal’s struggles on poor health, but that has become the norm in the Beal experience, as he missed 42 games in 2021-22, and 32 games a season ago. It’s not as if it’s been one major issue for Beal either: He’s missed time due to an ailing back, a tweaked hamstring and a sprained ankle.
Even when he’s been on the court, Beal’s play has diminished. He’s shooting just 32.4% from three and no longer getting to the free throw line with ease, which has led to below league-average efficiency overall (56.2% true shooting). He’s also turning the ball over on a career-high 14.4% of his possessions, and he’s a definitively negative defender at this point in his career, especially when being asked to guard bigger wings in Phoenix’s frequently-used three guard lineups.
Unlike when he was in Washington, the Suns are not heavily reliant on Beal to be a lead creator of offense. However, every game that he misses is another missed chance to build chemistry with Durant and Booker, and acclimate to a complementary role. Given their lack of experience playing together, especially in comparison to a Western conference powerhouse like Denver, Phoenix needs every rep that it can get before the postseason begins.
Where I Was Wrong: Faith in the Offense
I was bullish on Phoenix’s offense coming into the season, projecting that they would finish with the second-highest offensive rating in the league. While the Suns have been respectable (11th), I no longer see truly top-level scoring in this team’s future.
Part of the Suns’ struggles have been a result of Booker and Beal missing time. When Booker plays, Phoenix scores at an elite level, as he’s been able to function as a lead guard and has fully established himself among the very best players in basketball. However, given Beal’s underwhelming play, Phoenix is entirely reliant on Booker and Durant.
It’s an impossible task for Frank Vogel to put a lineup on the floor that can both score and defend. If he goes with Eric Gordon and Grayson Allen, Phoenix can shoot but has no hope to stay in front of opposing guards. If he opts for defensive stalwarts like Josh Okogie and Jordan Goodwin, opponents can pack the paint against Booker and Durant without being punished. Jusuf Nurkic, acquired to give Phoenix reliable center minutes, has also really fallen off: He is well under 50% shooting from the field despite taking the majority of his shots from the paint.
Outlook Going Forward: High Variance
Booker and Durant are still playing at an elite level, and the Suns have plenty of time to make up ground in the standings. However, they are limited in the moves they can make to bring in help from the outside, and there’s not much reason to believe that they’ll ever experience a stretch of consistent health.
As a result, they have to be moved down from tier 1 to tier 2 in my rankings. A finals run is still possible for this group, but they’re likely to enter the playoffs at both a seeding and matchup disadvantage given their bleak regular season outlook. Even if they can get their big three on the court together and clicking, I have serious doubts that any of their role players are ready for big time minutes in the playoffs. A sustained run of consistently excellent play at some point over the remainder of the regular season might swing my opinion, but for now I can only give them a puncher’s chance at contention, with a completely lost season remaining in the realm of possibility as well.
MIAMI HEAT
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 44-38 (6th in East)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 18th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 10th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 15th
Current Metrics:
Record: 20-15 (4th in East)
Offensive Rating: 16th
Defensive Rating: 13th
Net Rating: 13th
Team Overview: Sticking to the Script
Another year, another Heat team that is overcoming injury, overperforming their talent level, and getting key contributions from unlikely sources. Miami’s formula of Erik Spoelstra, player development, and excellence in close games has them right where I expected they’d be in the Eastern conference: Below the top tier of teams in terms of both record and net rating, but the number one club that contenders will be aiming to avoid come playoff time.
Even with their three highest-usage players (Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo) all having missed at least ten games, the Heat are five games above .500. Rookie Jaime Jaquez has been a revelation, and veterans Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson are in the midst of resurgent seasons. Nothing in Miami’s underlying metrics blows me away, but to the eye test they are well-coached and play with a high level of intelligence.
Where I Was Right: Jaime Love
Jaime Jaquez was one of my favorite college players to watch over his time at UCLA, and I loved his fit in Miami as soon as the Heat took him with the 18th pick in the 2023 draft. I thought his rugged style and high basketball IQ made him a perfect match with Erik Spoelstra, and I expected him to provide solid rotation minutes for the Heat in his first season.
However, Jaquez has surpassed even the most optimistic outlooks for his play. Outside of Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama, he has been the best rookie in the NBA, consistently contributing to winning basketball. His 59.3% true shooting is above average, and he scores at all three levels of the court. He’s a plus passer and rebounder for a wing, and he’s versatile enough to guard multiple positions. With Caleb Martin missing extended time this year due to injury, Spoelstra has called on Jaquez to play heavy minutes, and he’s answered the bell.
No team can have enough quality wings, so for Miami to unearth one with the 18th pick in the draft is massive. His ceiling may not be as high as some of the players picked before him, but Jaquez is already a borderline starting caliber forward, and he still has room in his game to improve.
Where I Was Wrong: Overall Roster Quality
In truth, my preseason outlook for the Heat has proven pretty salient. They are slightly above average on offense, slightly better on defense, and they have a penchant for winning close games, which boosts their record above what their net rating suggests it should be. Nothing about how I view this team in the big picture sense has really been altered.
However, I do think that the roster quality outside of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo is a bit better than I originally gave them credit for. This team is more cohesive than it was last year, as not only have they gotten breakout contributions from Jaquez, but their established veterans all look more comfortable this season as well. While their stars have struggled with injury, Miami’s key role players have managed to stay largely healthy, which has allowed Spoelstra to better understand the strengths and weaknesses of his team. That only makes them more dangerous as a playoff opponent, where their greatest advantage (besides Butler’s brilliance) is Spoelstra’s ability to maximize what his team does well and exploit the flaws of his opponent.
Outlook Going Forward: Still a Threat
I’ll be interested to see how aggressively Miami pushes for the 4 seed and home court advantage in round 1 of the playoffs: I think it’s unlikely that they can catch any of Boston, Milwaukee or Philadelphia in the standings, but they are well-positioned to be the class of the Eastern conference’s second tier.
Regardless, Miami is still a dark horse contender to make a playoff run, and they are absolutely capable of beating any team in the NBA in a seven game series. However, I still find it hard to believe that they’ll be able to string 4 consecutive series wins together, even if they have come awfully close in three out of the past four seasons.
It’s still possible that the Heat strike on the next big name to come available in order to push themselves over that talent hump, but there is no obvious target out there for them at the moment. I expect them to continue to prioritize health and load management, and I really hope that we get to see another year of full-strength Jimmy Butler come playoff time.