Power Rankings Update: Re-Setting Tier 1
TIER 1: DEFINITE CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS
Historically, the NBA is not a league of parity. As a sport, basketball does not lend itself to flukiness - there are too many possessions and too many points scored for a weird bounce to decide a game like it can in hockey or soccer. Baseball can be decided by one swing of the bat or a dominant pitcher, the NFL has single elimination playoffs; but in the NBA, the best team almost always comes out victorious. In a lot of years, this tier could legitimately be 2 or even 1 team long. However, since the breakup of Kevin Durant and the Warriors following the 2019 season, the NBA has been in a period of relative wide-openness. In the last 4 seasons, we’ve seen 4 different champions and 7 different teams reach the finals. It’s possible that Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets’ dominant run through the 2023 playoffs has kicked off the beginning of a new dynasty in the NBA, but as we stand right now, it’s too early to say that definitively.
The three teams below represent the three teams I believe to be capable of winning the NBA championship. For each of these teams, anything short of a finals appearance would have to be considered a disappointment - the ceiling is high and so are the expectations.
*For a refresher on the the layout of this power rankings update, click here
**All stats courtesy of basketballreference.com or NBA.com unless stated otherwise
DENVER NUGGETS
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 55-27 (1st in West)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 3rd
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 14th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 5th
Current Metrics:
Record: 24-11 (3rd in West)
Offensive Rating: 8th
Defensive Rating: 8th
Net Rating: 5th
Team Overview: Status Quo
Although Denver has dealt with multiple extended injury absences from Jamal Murray, they have cruised through the regular season to this point. Nikola Jokic is once again on the short list of MVP candidates, and his trademark durability (34 out of 35 games played) has been crucial to the Nuggets success. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon are all putting forth solid seasons in supporting roles, and Reggie Jackson has bounced back this year to provide quality bench scoring. As Murray continues to work his way into the fold, I have no doubts that Denver will maintain their place among the top teams in the Western conference.
With Murray now healthy, Denver has their full complement of players available and producing, which should be their number one regular season priority. They remain completely dominant (14-3) at home, and they’ve had no major off-court storylines or adversity.
Where I Was Right: Bench Woes
Looking at Denver’s depth chart, it’s easy to see how top heavy this roster is. While some in Denver were optimistic about their developmental pieces stepping into the spotlight this year, I had my doubts, and to this point, I’ve largely been correct. Reggie Jackson has been better than expected, which has helped considerably, and second year wing Christian Braun has established himself as an every night contributor. However, the Nuggets are still entirely reliant on Jokic (-13.7 net rating when he sits), and backup center Zeke Nnaji has fallen out of the rotation. Lineups built around Jamal Murray that do not include Jokic have been unable to keep Denver afloat: Denver’s most used non-Jokic lineup has been 19.0 points per 100 possessions worse than their opponents (via Cleaning the Glass).
As I said before the season, Denver’s bench may prove largely irrelevant in the playoffs, as long as Jokic and the rest of the starters are healthy and playing close to 40 minutes per night. However, their bench struggles certainly matter for the regular season, and the Nuggets may not be able to coast to the top seed in the West. They're certainly capable of winning a playoff series on the road, but it will add another layer of difficulty that they did not face on their way to the championship last season.
Where I Was Wrong: Improved Defense
Like most, I assumed that Denver’s strong record and net rating would be built on the back of their offense. While their 8th-ranked scoring attack has been stellar, their 8th-ranked defense has been just as essential to winning games. Head coach Michael Malone deserves a lot of credit for how this group defends: While Nikola Jokic has improved by leaps and bounds since entering the league, he’s still only a slightly above-average defender at the game’s most important defensive position. Gordon and Caldwell-Pope are steady contributors on the wing, and Watson and Braun provide quality depth as well. Denver really focuses on limiting opponent three-point attempts (31.3 per game, 3rd fewest). They have also protected the rim very well, allowing just 62.6% shooting in the restricted area, which is 5th best in the NBA.
However, they don’t force many turnovers, and they’re just average in terms of limiting free throws and collecting defensive rebounds, so they are heavily reliant on forcing teams into a difficult shot profile. I am a little concerned that they will regress some if opponents start to convert their threes more often, but overall I think Denver’s defense has proven to be right around a top ten regular season unit.
Outlook Going Forward: Still the Favorites
While the Nuggets have not been the NBA’s best regular season team in 2023-24, they remain in the top spot of my power rankings because I trust them the most when the playoffs come around. Nothing I’ve seen from them in the regular season makes me think they are incapable of returning to the dominant level they showed in the 2023 postseason, and I believe that they still have the NBA’s best player in Nikola Jokic. It will be interesting to see how hard Denver pushes for regular season wins and postseason seeding the rest of the way. I don’t think it should be a priority at the expense of the health of their key rotation members. However, I also believe that home court is especially beneficial for the Nuggets given the advantage they have of being acclimated to playing at altitude.
At the trade deadline, I think Denver could benefit from adding depth in their frontcourt. We’ve seen them overpay for JaVale McGee and Thomas Bryant at each of the past two deadlines, only for those players to be stapled to the bench in the playoffs, so I’d like to see them take a different tact this year. Targeting a hybrid big in the mold of what Jeff Green gave them last year may be the better way to go. I’d also like to see Jamal Murray play a bit better: Murray has proven that he can up the level of his game come playoff time, but it would be nice for him to reach a consistent All-Star level of play in the regular season in order to take some of the load off of Jokic’s shoulders.
BOSTON CELTICS
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 58-24 (1st in East)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 1st
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 2nd
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 1st
Current Metrics:
Record: 26-7 (1st in East)
Offensive Rating: 2nd
Defensive Rating: 5th
Net Rating: 2nd
Team Overview: NBA’s Best
The Celtics have been the regular season’s best team so far. Boston’s aggressive offseason has paid off in a major way, as the top 6 members of their rotation make up the best top 6 of any roster in the league. They have three legitimate All-Star candidates and two legitimate All-NBA candidates, and the chemistry that their top players have developed with one another is noticeably better than it's been in prior seasons. Boston’s ability to spread teams out and knock down threes from every spot on the floor makes them extremely difficult to defend, while on the opposite end their defense has very few weaknesses for opponents to exploit. The Celtics have been able to rotate rest days for key members of their rotation without skipping a beat, and they look poised to hold home court advantage throughout the entirety of the playoffs.
Where I Was Right: Defensive Versatility
I was bullish on Boston’s defense coming into the season, with the main justification being their ability to counter a multitude of offensive styles. Whether a team’s scoring comes from the perimeter or the interior, the Celtics can match up. They can switch 1 through 5 and stay in front of on-ball attackers. They can play traditional drop coverage and protect the rim. They can stay attached to shooters and defend the three point line. They play with extreme intelligence as well, avoiding fouls and understanding opponent weaknesses. Although Marcus Smart and Robert Williams each had stellar defensive reputations and are both no longer in Boston, the Celtics have not missed a beat on the point prevention end, with many of their defensive metrics looking the same or better than the past.
Where I Was Wrong: Concerns about Culture Shake-Up
While I believed that swapping out Smart, Robert Williams and Malcolm Brogdon for Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday was undoubtedly a talent upgrade, I was a bit nervous that such a major roster overhaul could hurt the team’s chemistry. To this point, there’s been absolutely no ill-effects: Boston has been in cruise control from day 1 of the season, even with players such as Holiday and Al Horford accepting diminished roles. Boston’s egalitarian system has eaten into the per-game production of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but neither player has shown any ill will for their new situation. If anything, players have spoken glowingly about the prospects of the team. Team President Brad Stevens is my frontrunner for Executive of the Year, and he deserves credit for not only assembling talent, but identifying the right fits for the team.
Outlook Going Forward: Preparing for Postseason Play
Boston has proven that they are a dominant regular season team, and although there are other excellent squads in the East, I don’t think the Celtics will be truly challenged for the number 1 seed. As such, the focus for this team should be on ensuring that they are fully healthy and playing their best basketball come playoff time.
Although Boston has the deepest collection of top-level talent, they may not have the best player in key matchups against Milwaukee, Philadelphia or Miami. In the rare instances when they have struggled this season, it’s been in late game scenarios where their offense stagnates. None of Boston’s key rotation pieces is a truly standout passer or playmaker for others, which might be my biggest area of concern for them.
Ultimately, this is the best roster in the NBA and a definite championship contender. Whether or not they can finally get over the hump and win it all remains to be seen, but what they have put on paper so far is nothing other than extremely encouraging.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Current Rotation:
Players in blue are signed to 2-Way contracts
*Denotes player is currently missing extended time due to injury/suspension/other*
Preseason Projections:
Projected 2023-24 Record: 55-27 (2nd in East)
Projected 2023-24 Offensive Rating: 4th
Projected 2023-24 Defensive Rating: 9th
Projected 2023-24 Net Rating: 3rd
Current Metrics:
Record: 24-9 (2nd in East)
Offensive Rating: 3rd
Defensive Rating: 19th
Net Rating: 6th
Team Overview: Rounding Into Form
Early on this season, it looked like there might be real reason for concern in Milwaukee. Through the first ten games of the season, the Bucks 25th ranked defense saddled them with a -2.2 net rating. All-Star wing Khris Middleton was struggling to get on the court due to lingering issues following offseason knee surgery, and new head coach Adrian Griffin looked in over his head. Even with one of the league’s top duos in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard both healthy and producing, the Bucks looked like a middling team.
However, since the calendar flipped to December, Milwaukee has quietly begun to dominate. They are 11-3 over their last 14 games, and their +9.0 net rating is third in the league over that span. Middleton no longer has a minutes limit, and their superstar duo is powering the offense to new heights: Milwaukee is scoring 124.9 points per 100 possessions over their last 14 games. While their defense isn’t elite, it’s no longer embarrassing: They’re a respectable 14th in DRTG over the last month.
The Bucks still have their issues, as Griffin hasn’t proven to be a positive change on the bench and Milwaukee’s depth on the wing leaves a lot to be desired. However, the flashes of brilliance have started to come more frequently, and the top-level talent is undeniable. Even in their worst times, this team was finding a way to win games, and as a result they are still in a great spot in the standings.
Where I Was Right: Lillard’s Offensive Impact
Relative to his own lofty career standards, one could actually argue that Damian Lillard is having somewhat of a down season. His per game scoring and assists are lower than they were last season, as are his field goal percentage and three point percentage. However, Lillard’s impact on Milwaukee’s offense has been palpable. Milwaukee is scoring nearly 6 more points per 100 possessions than they were a season ago. They have gone from 28th in the league in FT/FGA to 5th, and their eFG% is up from 55.5% (10th) to 58.0% (2nd). Even in the midst of a (slightly) less efficient shooting season, Lillard boosts the offense of the team overall with his ability to get to the free throw line, as well as generate three pointers for himself and his teammates.
Most importantly, Lillard has given the Bucks an answer for where to turn for late-game offense. As great of a player as Giannis Antetokounmpo is, his struggles from the free throw line and as a jump shooter can lead to ineffectiveness in crunch time when the game is primarily played in the halfcourt. Lillard’s ability to create quality looks out of pick and roll and isolation means Milwaukee has a much more consistent offensive engine at the end of games, which will be crucial come playoff time.
Where I Was Wrong: Overlooking Defensive Concerns
Coming into the season, I definitely overlooked the negative impact of subtracting Jrue Holiday and Mike Budenholzer from the organization. I believed that the standout frontcourt pairing of Antetokounmpo and Lopez would be able to erase Milwaukee’s obvious perimeter deficiencies, and I assumed that Griffin would keep enough of Budenholzer’s tactics to maintain a quality defensive baseline. While Milwaukee has certainly leveled out and played better following a brutal beginning, they still have major point prevention concerns. The Bucks are atrocious in transition defense, and they lack any sort of playmaking from their guards or wings. While their twin towers still do a solid job of protecting the paint, Milwaukee never forces turnovers (29th in opponent turnover rate) and they also struggle on the defensive glass (23rd in DRB%).
The Bucks have also benefited from shooting luck: Opponents are converting just 32.9% of their threes, which is the third lowest mark in the league. Should that number regress, Milwaukee’s defense could sink back towards the bottom of the league.
Overall, I have major concerns about a prospective championship contender that does not defend at a league-average level. Their inability to get stops means that any team they face will have a fighting chance, which might lead to wasted effort against inferior opponents in the early rounds of the playoffs. As potent offensively as their backcourt pairing of Lillard and Malik Beasley is, they are really going to struggle to provide adequate resistance against top perimeter scorers. Winning every game in a shootout may be their best path, but I’m not sure how sustainable that strategy will be.
Outlook Going Forward: Can They Fortify the Rotation?
Without major changes, it’s possible that the Bucks still have enough to make a run to the Finals and win it all. Giannis is playing at an MVP level, Lillard isn’t far behind, and Lopez and Middleton are still high-level complementary players capable of swinging playoff games by themselves. However, I have major questions about the postseason viability of basically every other player on Milwaukee’s roster. Offense-only pieces like Beasley and Bobby Ports have proven track records of being far more effective in the regular season. Rotation wings Jae Crowder and Pat Connaughton have both had moments of high level role playing throughout their careers, but neither is much of an offensive threat, nor perfectly suited to play a defensive stopper role. Milwaukee has basically nothing at either backup point guard or backup center. They have so much riding on Middleton’s shaky health record: If he goes down, the Bucks get really thin, really quick.
After making the move to get Lillard, Milwaukee is limited in what they can do on the trade market in terms of both assets and finances. Nevertheless, the front office will need to get creative because I believe this team is at least one piece away from getting past Boston in a seven-game series, especially if they don’t have home court advantage. Maybe they can find a contributor from within, but it’s hard to pinpoint a candidate for meaningful development this season that is currently on the roster. What they are able to scrounge up at the trade deadline and on the buyout market may determine their playoff ceiling.