Offseason Primer: Washington Wizards
Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
Washington’s Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $214M
Practical Cap Space: $-64M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $20M
Possible Financial Avenues:
The Wizards could technically open up about $25M in cap space if they were to waive the fully non-guaranteed contracts of Landry Shamet (~$11M), Jared Butler (~$2M) and Eugene Omoruyi (~$2M). However, ~$14M of that space would immediately be wiped away by the #2 and #26 picks in this year’s draft, which the rebuilding Wizards appear certain to use. The remaining ~$11M could be useful to absorb unwanted salary from another team in exchange for draft capital, but it’s probably not enough to be truly worth Washington’s while.
More likely, Washington will stay over the cap and use their full Bird Rights to bring back Tyus Jones on a reasonable deal, allowing them to have solid point guard play in the immediate and a tradable veteran on their books at some point down the line.
Bottom Line:
The Wizards are likely to operate over the $141M salary cap line but under the $171M luxury tax, meaning that they will have the full Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception at their disposal.
Organizational Direction:
When the Wizards traded Bradley Beal last summer, it became obvious that the plan for ‘23-24 was to bottom out. Washington accomplished that mission and then some, posting a 15-67 record and earning the #2 overall pick in the 2024 draft. The Wizards appear poised to finish near the bottom of the standings once again in 2024-25, and they need to in order to give themselves another chance at finding some star talent in the draft. While Washington has a few incoming draft picks from other organizations and an intriguing young player in 2023 draftee Bilial Coulibaly, they are still firmly in asset collection mode as they look to build a long-term winner.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Take the best player available with both of their first round picks
One of the few benefits of not having an existing young core in place is that Washington can view the 2024 draft through a wide lens. They don’t have to worry about fit or play style at all, and as such, should be purely focused on drafting the best player available.
That should be easy to do with the second overall pick, as the Wizards will be selecting either the first or second-ranked player on their board. Recent reports have Washington zeroing in on French big man Alexandre Sarr, which is a logical choice. Sarr’s combination of size and skill gives him a high upside, but he needs time and repetitions to be able to develop. The Wizards can give him as much of that as he needs, allowing him to grow in a low-pressure environment in his rookie season.
With the 26th pick, Washington doesn’t necessarily have to take a swing on another developmental piece, but Wizards’ President Michael Winger has shown through his time as an NBA executive that he values projectable traits over pure statistical production. A few players I have ranked in that range who might fit the bill for Washington include French wing Pacome Dadiet, Baylor center Yves Missi and Miami sniper Kyshawn George.
2) Explore the trade market for Kyle Kuzma
Kyle Kuzma isn’t a perfect player by any means, but he does at least offer some degree of shot creation, defensive versatility, and three-point shooting. Now entering his age-29 season, Kuzma clearly doesn’t align with Washington’s team building timeline, and I’m sure that both player and team would be amenable to moving him elsewhere.
One of the most appealing things Kuzma brings to the table for a potential suitor is that he’s on a very affordable contract, especially in the exploding cap environment the league is about to enter. Kuzma is set to earn $23.5M this upcoming season, and then his salary will decrease in both ‘25-26 ($21.4M) and ‘26-27 ($19.4M). By the final year of that deal, Kuzma’s $19.4M will represent just 11.4% of the salary cap, meaning that even if a team wants to shift him into a bench role, he’d still likely be relatively accurately paid.
It’s not entirely clear what Kuzma’s value is on the open market, but it seems like there should be at least one decent first-round pick available for his services. The Kings have long been rumored as fans of Kuzma, and could easily center a package around Harrison Barnes, Sasha Vezenkov, and draft capital. The Mavericks are another speculative fit, especially if they lose Derrick Jones Jr. to free agency, as they could offer a pick and Tim Hardaway Jr.’s expiring salary, opening up the Wizards books in the summer of 2025.