Offseason Primer: Toronto Raptors
Let's take a look at how the Raptors might approach the summer
Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line (1st Apron): $178M
Luxury Tax Line (2nd Apron): $189M
Toronto’s Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $176M
Practical Cap Space: $-30.3M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $39.9M
Bottom Line: The Raptors are likely to operate over the cap but under the first luxury tax line, meaning their largest available spending power on external free agents will come via the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (starting salary of $12.86M).
Organizational Direction:
Toronto is coming off a lost season that saw them trade away two core pieces in forwards O.G. Anunoby and Pascal Siakam. However, by acquiring young talent in the form of R.J. Barrett and Immanuel Quickley in the Anunoby deal, the Raps signaled their intent to re-tool rather than completely blow things up. They have a young All-Star in Scottie Barnes to build around, and I believe their intent is to use this offseason to flesh out the roster, and make a push towards the bottom of the Eastern conference playoff picture in 2024-25.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Retain Immanuel Quickley in Restricted Free Agency
The Raptors probably had a decent idea of what it would take to re-sign Quickley when they acquired him in during the season, and it’s not like anything Quickley did on the court once he joined Toronto has given him significantly more bargaining power. We’ve seen players get squeezed by the restricted free agency market before, but there are some teams, such as Orlando, that project to have cap space and would be a good fit for Quickley, which will likely force Toronto’s hand. An average annual value of roughly $20-$25M, which would be in line (with inflation) with the 4 year, $71M pact Collin Sexton signed two offseasons ago, is probably fair for both sides.
2) Extension for Scottie Barnes
Barnes is entering the final year of his rookie contract in 2024-25, which means he becomes extension-eligible this summer. The organization is obviously high on Barnes, and by trading away Siakam, they opened the window for him to become the new face of the franchise. I’m expecting Toronto to offer the designated rookie maximum extension, which would pay him 25% of the salary cap on an annual basis for up to five seasons, with the possibility to rise to 30% of the cap should he get named to an All-NBA team. The only real haggling will likely be over the final year of the deal, as Barnes may seek a player option, but Toronto will surely want to lock him in for the full five years.
3) Sorting out the Shooting Guards
Other than Quickley, Toronto’s two most important retention decisions are Gary Trent Jr. and Bruce Brown. Trent Jr. has had an up-and-down past couple of seasons with the Raps, but as a career 38.6% three-point shooter on 8 attempts per 36 minutes, he offers a skill set that they desperately need. Toronto has full Bird Rights on Trent Jr., meaning they can retain him at any number up to his maximum salary, but something in the range of $15-$16M, which is what Max Strus signed for in free agency last offseason, should be all they need.
Brown is a more interesting decision, as he could certainly help Toronto with his defense and secondary ball handling. The Raps could exercise his 2024-25 team option for $23M with the intention of keeping him, opt him in and look to trade him as an expiring contract, or decline his option. If they decline his option, they might be able to re-sign him on a longer-term deal at a lower AAV, but they would also risk losing him for nothing in free agency.
4) Build out the Depth
Assuming Toronto is intent on being competitive next season, they need to add additional talent, particularly on the second unit. Backup point guard and backup forward appear particularly weak at the moment, although they could fill one or both of those spots in the draft, as they hold picks #19 and #31. Some speculative fits that could be available to them in free agency for Non-Tax Mid-Level Exception money or below: PG Monte Morris, PG Aaron Holiday, G De’Anthony Melton, F Caleb Martin, F Taurean Prince, F Kelly Oubre. It’s not an amazing group, and a few of the more appealing options (Melton, Oubre) may wind up out of their price range.