Offseason Primer: Portland Trail Blazers
Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
Portland’s Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $194M
Practical Cap Space: $-53M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $-31M
Possible Financial Avenues:
With an active roster charge of $165M, the Trail Blazers are quietly at risk of bumping up against the luxury tax. Obviously, for a team that just won 21 games and projects to be bad again next season, paying anything more than they have to for this roster seems like a non-starter. Portland should be looking to move anybody not named Scoot Henderson or Shaedon Sharpe, and they’ll likely be aiming to save a bit of money in the process.
Bottom Line:
The Blazers are almost certain to operate above the $141M salary cap, but how much space they have below the tax will be dependent on what they do with their tradable veterans. Most likely, this will be a fairly passive offseason for Portland in terms of external additions, outside of what they do in the draft.
Organizational Direction:
The first year of the post-Damian Lillard era in Portland was pretty dreary, as injuries and a lack of talent doomed them from the start. The Blazers have two intriguing young guards in Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson, but neither has truly proven to be the future face of the franchise, at least not yet. Between Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams, Portland also has a number of solid veterans who could theoretically be helping teams that are trying to win. The Trail Blazers should be aggressively shopping at least a few of those guys this summer, both to build up their war chest of draft assets and clear the runway to give their youngsters more playing time. That’s probably going to lead to another painfully poor season in ‘24-25, but Portland needs to be selecting near the top of the board in 2025 in order to add more pieces to their young core.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Collect any and all assets available for most of the veterans
Although Anfernee Simons is just 25 years old and probably Portland’s best offensive player, it still makes a ton of sense for them to put him on the trade block. For one, Simons’ defensive limitations put a ceiling on how much he can truly help a team win, especially if Portland is planning to play him next to at least one of Sharpe or Henderson. Secondly, Simons is on a reasonable contract (~$55M owed over the next two seasons), and Portland should be able to get multiple first round picks for him if they trade him now. Jerami Grant and Malcolm Brogdon might have slightly less value given their age and contractual situations, but both should be in demand if made available. The Blazers don’t necessarily have to trade all of their vets, as it’s not crazy to keep somewhat of a functional ecosystem around their young guys in order to help them develop. However, a total lack of action would be completely inexcusable, given their realistic team building timeline.
2) Add complementary talent next to Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson in the draft
With four picks in the top 40, Portland has a real chance to add at least a couple long-term pieces to their core. Assuming they believe that they’ll have shot creation and playmaking mostly covered between Sharpe and Henderson, they can be very targeted in the type of players they are looking for in the draft. If still available at #7, Cody Williams is a versatile defensive wing prospect who would fit perfectly. At #14, Tidjane Salaun is another developmental forward who could make some sense. Even with their two early second-round picks (#34 & #40), I expect there to be players like big men Jonathan Mogbo and Oso Ighodaro who would be intriguing additions to their frontcourt. The Blazers also might be interested in packaging their two second-rounders in order to move up into latter stages of the first round, but they shouldn’t get overly aggressive to move up. Portland should give themselves as many chances as possible to find long-term contributors.