Offseason Primer: Phoenix Suns
Is there anything the Suns can do to dig themselves out of their current financial hole?
Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
Phoenix’s Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $245M
Practical Cap Space: -$100M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): -$61M
Possible Financial Avenues:
Barring Phoenix making trades that function purely as salary-dumping maneuvers, they have basically zero financial optionality. Phoenix’s active roster commitment currently sits at $210M, and the four players that currently have player options for ‘24-25 are all deciding on minimum salaries. Even if all four players opt out, Phoenix would have to replace them with minimum-salaried players in order to fill out the roster. The Suns could theoretically get marginally cheaper by trading Jusuf Nurkic for a less-expensive player (or players), but it’s unclear what his trade value is, and even though he’s a flawed player, Phoenix desperately needs the production he provides at center. Grayson Allen falls under a similar category on the wing, and he’s not even trade eligible until October 16th due to the extension he signed last year.
Bottom Line:
The Suns are a lock to be well over the 2nd apron of the luxury tax ($189M). Full details on the consequences of that infraction are linked here, but essentially, their ability to acquire external free agents will be limited to minimum-salary contracts.
Organizational Direction:
By acquiring Kevin Durant in February 2023, and then doubling-down with the Bradley Beal trade in June 2023, the Suns definitively accelerated their timeline into win-now mode. Results from year 1 of their new era were disastrous, as they were swept out of the first round by Minnesota. However, given their financial situation and utter lack of tradeable draft capital, the only way to backtrack now would be to admit total defeat, and deal one or both of Durant and Devin Booker, plunging the team into a rebuild. While that may be where this ship is inevitably headed, I don’t think Suns’ brass is willing to waive the white flag yet. Phoenix has already made a change at head coach, firing Frank Vogel after just one season at the helm, and bringing in Mike Budenholzer. Hiring another well-compensated, veteran head coach signals to me that the plan is to change what they reasonably can, and regroup for another run at contention in ‘24-25.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Improve the depth however possible
While one could make a compelling argument that the play of Booker and Durant wasn’t championship-worthy to begin with, there’s no question that the supporting cast around them weren’t up to snuff either. The Suns are going to be hard-pressed to make impactful changes due to their financial and asset-related constraints, but that doesn’t mean it’s completely impossible. The first order of business is probably retaining Royce O’Neal, as Phoenix holds his full Bird Rights. O’Neale isn’t a postseason difference-maker, but he’s a worthy rotational wing, and if the Suns can get him for a reasonable price (~$10M), he could be valuable salary-matching fodder once he becomes trade eligible mid-season. Phoenix could also stand to upgrade on the minimum market, as other than Eric Gordon, they struck out on many of their attempts to bring in quality pieces via minimum salarieslast offseason. While there’s obviously a cap on the level of talent that can be acquired via the minimum, the Suns are in the unique position of being able to offer significant playing time to players looking to rehabilitate their value, and get back out on the open market. Some speculative fits who could at least help Phoenix get through the regular season: Jordan McLaughlin, Monte Morris, Lonnie Walker IV, Marcus Morris, Dario Saric, Andre Drummond.
2) Extend Kevin Durant? Trade Kevin Durant?
In case you thought Phoenix hadn’t already mortgaged enough of their future, they will have another decision to make on July 8th when Kevin Durant becomes extension eligible. Even though only one additional season can be added onto Durant’s existing deal, which runs through ‘25-26, KD is surely going to be looking to lock in the security of ~$60 million for his age-38 season ahead of time. If Phoenix is unwilling to make that commitment, it’s possible that Durant will look to force his way out of town, as he’s been want to do in the past. Even if they don’t receive any pressure from KD, the Suns may want to explore moving Durant now if they’re not committed long term, as his value is sure to decline as he ages and gets closer to free agency.
While it may seem crazy to double-down on a team that so clearly didn’t work as intended this past season, Phoenix is already so far past the all-in line that adding one more season onto Durant’s deal probably isn’t a deal-breaker, especially given owner Mat Ishbia’s apparent willingness to spend on a preposterous level. Making sure Durant stays mollified, and extending the window of when he is team-controlled and tradeable, is probably the best play for the Suns at this point in time.