Offseason Primer: Orlando Magic
Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
Orlando’s Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $180M
Practical Cap Space: $52M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $69M
Possible Financial Avenues:
The Magic are one of this summer’s major players, as they can theoretically open up nearly $70M in space below the $141M cap. In reality, they are likely to pick up Mo Wagner’s $8M team option and guarantee Jonathan Isaac’s $17M salary, which will slash their spending power to about $45M. Even still, Orlando will wield enough space to sign just about any player who is interested in joining up with their young core.
Bottom Line:
The Magic are one of only a few teams that has both a playoff-caliber roster and significant cap space. They have been linked to most of the major free agents already, and should come away from the offseason with at least one splash addition.
Organizational Direction:
The breakout success of the young Magic was one of the best storylines of the 2023-24 regular season. Orlando rode their elite defense to an Eastern conference playoff berth, and very nearly came away with a playoff series win, pushing the Cavaliers to 7 games in the first round.
Between Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs, the Magic have one of the most exciting young cores in the league. Even if they do nothing but rely on internal development, Orlando figures to be in the playoff mix for years to come. However, given the unique circumstance of their three best players all being on rookie contracts, the Magic have a finite window to strike with a big addition before they have to start handing out extensions and their team gets significantly more expensive. Particularly because Wagner and Suggs profile as very good-but-not-quite-All-Star level of players, Orlando needs to get this transaction period right if the goal is to boost themselves to true championship contention.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Significantly upgrade the team in free agency
In my eyes, Orlando has as compelling a pitch to make to Paul George as any other theoretical suitor. George can fit into the Magic’s defense-first ethos while giving them a desperately needed infusion of shooting, veteran experience, and efficient perimeter shot creation. Playing next to Banchero and Wagner would allow him to age gracefully, as his role in the offense could naturally decline over time, and he’d have a legitimate chance at deep playoff runs for the foreseeable future.
However, it’s possible that Orlando is not a big enough market to land a star like George, who seems to prefer to stay on the west coast. If that’s the case, there are still plenty of options to fill the Magic’s biggest needs. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a highly logical fit, as he’d immediately be the best shooter on the roster while forming one of the league’s best defensive backcourts alongside Suggs. Klay Thompson isn’t quite as clean of a fit due to his age and recent defensive drop-off, but he’d certainly provide the elite three-point shooting that Orlando lacks. If they’d rather opt for a player who provides a little more on-ball creation and playmaking, D’Angelo Russell could be a nice get, and he likely wouldn’t be so expensive that they couldn’t add additional pieces along with him. On a smaller scale, the Magic have the supporting defensive ecosystem to where they could maximize the effectiveness of a pure volume-shooting specialist like Buddy Hield or Gary Trent Jr. However, it would certainly be a disappointment to see Orlando settle. They need to come away from this summer with a demonstrably more talented team.
2) Extensions for Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs
After they make their big free agent moves, the next piece of business for Orlando will be hammering out extensions for Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs. With Paolo Banchero a lock to receive a maximum extension when he becomes eligible in the summer of 2025, the Magic are set to become significantly more expensive in the middle part of the decade. As a franchise that typically shies away from the luxury tax, winning the negotiations with Wagner and Suggs could end up being critical to their team building opportunities in the future.
With Wagner, it seems almost certain that his representation will be seeking a max extension similar to what Scottie Barnes plans to sign with the Raptors (5 years, projected total of $225M). While Wagner is an exciting young player with room to develop, signing him to that deal is far from a no-brainer, particularly due to his regression from beyond the three-point line last season. Orlando certainly wants to avoid angering a member of their core, and they’ll have to pay up to some degree to keep Wagner from reaching restricted free agency next summer. If they could sign Wagner to a deal closer to $200M in total value over five seasons, it could really help their books.
Suggs isn’t the same level of shot creator as Wagner, but he is one of the premier defensive guards in the NBA, and the progress he showed as a shooter this past season allows him to profile as a priority starter long-term. Although he doesn’t have the scoring potential of Immanuel Quickley, one could easily argue that he’s a better all-around player, and Quickley just inked a 5-year, $175M deal. Signing Suggs for that type of money might be hard to swallow for Orlando, but it certainly might require a commitment on that scale to get him locked in. If the Magic can get a deal done for closer to $30M in average annual value, they should consider that a major victory.