Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
Oklahoma City’s Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $168M
Practical Cap Space: $37M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $45M
Possible Financial Avenues:
Even after factoring in the new contracts for their three 2024 draft picks, OKC still projects to have an active roster charge of less than $115M, giving them significant space below the $141M salary cap line. OKC has easy pathways to clear additional money as well, as Ousmane Dieng ($5M) and Kenrich Williams ($6.6M) are both players that project to be outside the Thunder’s rotation but would likely have trade appeal on the open market.
Bottom Line:
The Thunder are going to have some degree of cap space to spend this summer, with the exact level of room being dependent on how aggressive they are to clear money off their books, and the path they decide to take with the team options of Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins.
Organizational Direction:
In 2023-24, the Oklahoma City Thunder re-emerged among the ranks of the NBA’s elite teams. OKC earned the #1 seed in the Western conference, and star guard Shai-Gilgeous Alexander solidified his standing as one of the best players in the world by finishing second in the MVP voting. Between Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, the Thunder have the NBA’s best young core by a wide margin, and given their wealth of incoming draft picks and lack of a single bad contract on their books, OKC looks set up to build the league’s next great dynasty.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Add impact talent with their available spending power
While their second round loss to Dallas in the ‘24 playoffs proved that OKC’s young supporting cast around Gilgeous-Alexander wasn’t quite ready for the absolute highest levels of competition, it’s entirely possible that internal development is all the Thunder need to get over the hump. By trading Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso earlier this offseason, OKC has already significantly improved their team, as well as clarified their financial future by avoiding an extension for an ill-fitting piece like Giddey.
However, with Holmgren and Williams still on rookie-scale contracts for the next two seasons, the Thunder have a unique opportunity to spend that they will never have again with their current core. In my opinion, they absolutely have to be aggressive this summer to add another major difference maker, and they should be willing to get (slightly) irresponsible to do it. Yes, Oklahoma City is a small market, and they have to be cautious about their potential luxury tax payments in future seasons, once Holmgren and Williams are on huge-money extensions. However, that’s a problem that can be solved at some point down the line, especially given how many future draft picks OKC has to utilize in salary-dumping maneuvers (should that prove necessary). The last time Sam Presti and the Thunder front office tried to get too cute and proactively avoid future financial complications, they traded James Harden away from a team with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, just a few months after making the NBA Finals, and they never got back there again.
It’s entirely possible that OKC has had the same thought as me, reached out to old friend Paul George, and been told that he’s not interested in moving back to Oklahoma. If that’s the case, it’s probably true that there’s nobody available in free agency that fits the bill of what I’m advocating for, although there are scenarios where adding a combination of top-notch role players like Isaiah Hartenstein and Derrick Jones Jr. could provide a somewhat similar jolt.
My contention is that if OKC strikes out in free agency, they should be willing to get ultra-aggressive on the trade market. The Thunder have 9 incoming first round picks (in addition to their own) over the next five drafts: Even if they wanted to utilize all those selections, they won’t have the requisite number of open roster spots. If I was Sam Presti, I’d be beating down the door of Danny Ainge for Lauri Markkanen, who would not only be a perfect fit with his combination of size and shooting, but fits the Thunder’s timeline far better than he does the Utah’s. OKC could also offer Miami a chance to reset their books by giving them draft capital for Jimmy Butler, who is not necessarily a perfect fit for this roster, but would give them some much needed postseason experience, and the team would be so overwhelmingly talented that it might not matter anyhow.
If the Thunder don’t end up making any significant moves beyond the Caruso trade, I won’t kill them because it’s possible that they tried opening every door, and nothing was made available to them. However, I will be extremely disappointed if OKC willingly settles for being very good instead of trying to be undeniably great.