Offseason Primer: New York Knicks
Summer 2024 is shaping up to be a pivotal moment in 21st century Knicks' history
Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
New York’s Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $205M
Practical Cap Space: -$67M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $24M
Possible Financial Avenues:
The Knicks have been able to stay relatively inexpensive over the past few seasons, but with two key pieces hitting free agency and the team on the edge of contention, it’s time for owner James Dolan to break out the checkbook. It’s definitely possible for the Knicks to avoid the luxury tax if they simply waive Bojan Bogdanovic ahead of his June 28th guarantee date, as that would turn his $19M salary into a $2M dead cap hit. However, New York should keep him around, both as valuable wing depth and their most obvious matching salary to include in a trade. This isn’t the time for cost-cutting maneuvers: The Knicks need to be maximizing every available resource in their pursuit of maintaining and upgrading the roster.
Bottom Line:
Assuming the Knicks retain Bogdanovic’s salary slot, re-sign O.G. Anunoby using his Bird Rights, and do all they can to retain Isaiah Hartenstein, they are likely to be making luxury tax payments in ‘24-25. Their ability to stay below the second apron is somewhat dependent on how expensive Anunoby proves to be, but they should be able to stay under that $189M figure.
Organizational Direction:
After back-to-back 2nd-round playoff appearances, the Knicks have proof of concept that their current roster is good enough to pile up wins. However, it’s not clear yet that New York has enough top-end talent to be a true championship contender. A Julius Randle optimist might argue that his return from the shoulder injury that ended his ‘23-24 season gives the Knicks two superstars, but given the team’s stellar performance without him and Randle’s own history of postseason disappointment, he may not be a piece that drastically alters their place in the Eastern Conference hierarchy. With only a couple years left of Jalen Brunson under contract on a well-below market deal, the time is now for the Knicks to push their chips all in and take aim at a title.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Re-Sign O.G. Anunoby, Isaiah Hartenstein
Anunoby has a $19.9M player option for the ‘24-25 season that he is 100% certain to decline, at which point he will hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent. The Knicks hold his full Bird Rights, meaning they can offer him any salary up to his maximum, and they surely had a good idea of what it would take to retain him when they acquired him midway through this past season. At the same time, Anunoby has external leverage, as he would be a perfect fit for both Oklahoma City and Philadelphia, and each of those teams has plenty of cap space to use on him. The Knicks have no choice but to pay up for Anunoby, as they have no mechanism to replace him should he depart. I’m expecting a starting salary for Anunoby somewhere in the $35-$40M range, with the maximum allowable 8% raises each year after ‘24-25.
Hartenstein’s free agency is somewhat trickier for New York, as he won the starting center job and was one of the better players on the team in ‘23-24. Unlike Anunoby, the Knicks only hold Hartenstein’s Early Bird Rights, meaning their largest offer to him would be capped at 4 years and $78 million. It’s possible that’s enough to retain him, but then again, maybe not: OKC lurks as a nice fit, and they might be willing to go after a player that they are 100% positive they can make the largest offer to. If New York loses Hartenstein, they have a decently viable option behind him in Mitchell Robinson, but they would lose critical depth at the center position.
In the best case scenario for the Knicks where they retain both of their free agent starters, their active roster salary is probably going to be pushing $180M, putting them about $10M into the luxury tax. Again, they could cut that number significantly and duck the tax by waiving Bojan Bogdanovic (~$17M in savings), but with the team they have, cost savings shouldn’t be the priority.
2) Big fish hunting in the trade market
The Knicks have been accumulating draft assets for a few years now, and as a result, in addition to all their own picks, they have four extra first-round picks available to use in trades. However, this summer represents a last chance of sorts. First, the pick owed to them by the Mavericks (#24 overall) conveys in June. Secondly, New York is owed heavily protected picks in 2025 from both Detroit and Washington, and given the state of those two franchises, it’s possible that neither pick ever conveys as a first-rounder, despite them both going out beyond 2025. The longer the Knicks wait to include those picks in a deal, the less appetizing they become.
The other reason why New York is running out of time is their matching salary situation. We’ve already covered Bogdanovic’s $19M salary slot, which will be erased from their books following the ‘24-25 season, but Julius Randle’s tradeability may have a shelf life as well. Randle is on the books for ‘24-25 at $28.9M, but he has a $30.9M player option for the ‘25-26 season that he could easily choose to decline. Randle is the Knicks’ secondary shot creator in the regular season and a quality NBA player, but in my opinion, New York needs to upgrade in order to take their team to the next level of contention. The closer he gets to free agency (and the more evidence teams have that he’s not a true postseason difference maker), the harder he will be to trade.
The package of Bogdanovic/Randle/every available draft pick is one that should get teams to listen intently when the Knicks call. There’s no glaringly obvious fit, but New York should at least inquire about players like Jimmy Butler and Kevin Durant. If it’s not the name-brand superstar, acquiring a cleaner fit than Randle in the frontcourt or multiple complementary pieces could be an option as well. Either way, the Knicks shouldn’t sit on their hands and watch their maneuverability fade away.