Offseason Primer: New Orleans Pelicans
Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
New Orleans’ Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $200M
Practical Cap Space: $-57M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $3M
Possible Financial Avenues:
With an active roster charge of ~$155M, the Pelicans are a virtual lock to be operating over the $141M salary cap line. New Orleans has a history of ducking the luxury tax by any means necessary, and I expect that to continue in ‘24-25. The Pelicans will have a huge hole in their rotation if Jonas Valanciunas leaves in free agency, and while they’d like an upgrade at starting center, they might be hard-pressed to find a suitable external replacement given their limited financial flexibility.
Bottom Line:
Barring a significant roster shakeup as a result of a trade, New Orleans is likely choosing between retaining Valanciunas, or utilizing the full Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception.
Organizational Direction:
For most of the ‘23-24 regular season, it looked like New Orleans’ long-awaited breakout was underway. Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram were finally healthy for the majority of games, and the Pelicans were firmly in the mix for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs as a result. However, a late season swoon knocked New Orleans into the play-in tournament, and Zion Williamson suffered a hamstring strain in their loss to the Lakers. Although the Pels managed to beat Sacramento in the next game and earn the 8th seed, they were summarily demolished (without their best player) by the Thunder in the first round of the playoffs. Executive Vice President David Griffin vowed change in his end-of-season press conference, and despite the relative regular season success of the team, there’s seemingly a sense in New Orleans that the team, as currently constituted, has a defined ceiling. The Pelicans have a ton of young talent, but the fit of their two stars is imperfect, and the resulting roster construction leads to the whole being less than the sum of the parts. New Orleans could probably double-down, and with some better health luck, be a consistent playoff team over the next few years. However, if they truly want to build a championship contender around Zion Williamson, this summer might be their final window for instituting radical changes.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Make a decision on the Williamson/Ingram pairing
The fit between Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson is clunky for a few reasons. First off, both players need the ball in their hands to be at their most effective on the offensive end. Williamson’s complete lack of outside shooting ability makes it difficult for him to function off the ball, and while Ingram is a capable shooter, he does his best work creating for himself from the mid-range, and he doesn’t take enough threes (4.1 3PA per 36 minutes) to be considered a true floor spacer. As a result New Orleans has to have a certain amount of shooting on the court alongside their two stars in order for their offense to function. Unfortunately for the Pels, neither Ingram nor Williamson is a positive on the defensive end of the court, and they play premium defensive positions on the wing and interior (respectively). That puts head coach Willie Green consistently between a rock and a hard place, trying to find the balance between getting the proper amount of shooting and the proper amount of defense on the court.
With Ingram entering the final year of his contract next season, he is eligible to sign an extension for as many as 4 additional years at as much as 30% of the salary cap (projected total of $208M). Given the Pelicans’ historically limited finances, and the less-than-stellar results they’ve gotten when Ingram and Williamson share the court, it seems unlikely that New Orleans is tripping over themselves to lock Ingram in at that figure. It’s possible they could get Ingram to agree to a deal for slightly less money, but given his All-Star pedigree, gaudy scoring numbers, and age (27), he probably views himself as a max-contract player should he hit the open market.
If New Orleans decides the best move is to deal Ingram rather than let him walk or extend him for more than he’s worth, they’ll have to determine whether they are searching for immediately impactful players in return, or would settle for draft capital/future assets. With Willliamson only 24 years old and under contract through ‘27-28, it might make sense for the Pels to take a small step back in the present, reset their roster and team building timeline, and take aim at true contention in ‘25-26.
2) Find a starting center
Jonas Valanciunas is a solid NBA player, but because he doesn’t space the floor and is merely average as a rim protector, he’s a questionable fit next to Zion Williamson. The perfect player for New Orleans would be a center like Myles Turner or Brook Lopez, but bigs like that are both hard to come by and out of the Pelicans price range when they do hit the open market. If the Pels let Valanciunas walk this summer, their only means of replacing him would be via the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, which isn’t enough spending power to find a true upgrade, or the trade block. As a result, it’s possible, if not even likely, that New Orleans simply re-signs Valanciunas and/or drafts a developmental big with the #21 pick, and hopes that the problem resolves itself.
I’m sure New Orleans would be eager to upgrade the position via trade, and they have plenty of draft capital at their disposal. However, it’s very difficult to find a player who would both fit into the Pelicans’ salary structure and realistically be available. Magic center Wendell Carter Jr. would be a nice fit, but it’s unclear what the Pelicans could offer that would entice Orlando to deal him. A Brandon Ingram/Lauri Markkanen swap with Utah seems likely to get shot down. Cleveland might be open to some sort of Ingram/Jarrett Allen deal, but while Allen would make them better, he doesn’t solve the spacing issues of playing Williamson next to a non-shooting center. It’s an unenviable position for the New Orleans front office to be in, and one that’s likely going to require the right mix of shrewd maneuvering and good fortune to be properly resolved.
3) Extension for Trey Murphy III
Another reason why moving Ingram might make sense for the Pels is that it would clear a pathway to the starting lineup for Trey Murphy III. As a career 39% three-point shooter (8.1 3PA per 36 minutes) who is also passable on the defensive end, Murphy is a logical fit next to Williamson and a player whom New Orleans surely wants to lock up as part of their long-term core. Particularly if they deal Ingram and open up some future salary flexibility, but even if they don’t, the Pelicans should be willing to pay Murphy this summer when he becomes extension eligible. Something in the neighborhood of 5 years at $25M per season is probably ideal for New Orleans, but it’s possible that they have to get closer to the 5/$150M range in order to keep Murphy from testing restricted free agency next summer.