Offseason Primer: Minnesota Timberwolves
Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
Minnesota’s Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $280M
Practical Cap Space: $-123M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $-54M
Possible Financial Avenues:
The Wolves have one of the most expensive rosters in the NBA, and they don’t have an obvious pathway to clearing salary that wouldn’t result in a significantly worse on-court product. Minnesota is a lock to spend this season above the $189M second apron of the luxury tax.
Bottom Line:
The full list of restrictions and limitations on teams above the second apron of the luxury tax can be found here. Minnesota’s ability to add external free agents this summer will be limited to minimum-contract signings.
Organizational Direction:
After a disastrous 2022-23 season, the Wolves’ resurgence in ‘23-24 salvaged their all-in trade for Rudy Gobert. Gobert was the anchor of Minnesota’s #1-ranked defense, and of course, Anthony Edwards’ leap into full-on superstardom was a major contributing factor in the Wolves’ success as well. Minnesota was the talk of the NBA after knocking off Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets in the second round of the playoffs, but their subsequent 5-game defeat in the Conference Finals against Dallas showed that the Wolves still have a ways to go on the offensive end.
By trading away the rights to their first round picks in 2030 and 2031 on draft night to select Rob Dillingham with the 8th overall pick, Minnesota is doubling down on their win-now approach. If it all hits, Dillingham will bring a level of shot creation and off-the-dribble dynamism that the Wolves were lacking outside of Anthony Edwards this past season. Going and getting him is a risky move, but it’s also a necessarily creative one, as Minnesota has limited ability to add talent given their financial restraints and lack of draft capital. They will have to show similar creativity, if not necessarily the same risk tolerance, as they look to make the final tweaks and upgrades to their roster over the coming weeks.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Scour the minimum market for shooting
As I’ve already mentioned, the Wolves are likely to be pretty quiet on the free agent market given their financial restrictions. They could theoretically explore retaining one or both of Kyle Anderson and Monte Morris, but both figure to get reasonable offers elsewhere, and Minnesota ownership may not have the appetite to see their luxury tax bill soar any higher. Hopefully, the two first round picks they spent on Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. will help bolster their second unit right away, but that’s hardly a guarantee with young players. Minnesota has a very strong top-7 in their rotation, but they could probably stand to add some additional shooting to their bench, at least for the regular season. Three potential fits I’d have circled who might be available for the minimum: Malik Beasley, Taurean Prince and Robert Covington.
2) Extension for Rudy Gobert?
This one is more speculative, as Minnesota certainly doesn’t have to come to any sort of agreement with Gobert this summer. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year is set to earn $43.8M this season, and then has a player option for $46.6M in ‘25-26. If they really wanted to, the Wolves could have Gobert opt out in ‘25-26, and tack four new years onto his current deal with a starting salary as large 35% of the salary cap, locking him in through the ‘28-29 season. However, given that that theoretical deal would cover Gobert’s age-33 through age-36 seasons, and the fact that Minnesota already owes monstrous extension figures to both Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, it’s unlikely the Wolves would be willing to go that high for Gobert.
A more realistic scenario might be one where Minnesota seeks to extend Gobert at a lower number than the $46.6M he is owed in ‘25-26, but for more years. Would the Frenchman be willing to take an extension somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 years and $120M? Even if it’s a marginal amount, lowering Gobert’s ‘25-26 salary would really help Minnesota’s books, and Gobert could be looking to get the security of a longer-term deal as he reaches his mid-30s.