Offseason Primer: Milwaukee Bucks
Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
Milwaukee’s Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $207M
Practical Cap Space: $-63M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $-46M
Possible Financial Avenues:
With roughly $150M committed in ‘24-25 salary to their four best players, Milwaukee has one of the most expensive rosters in the NBA. The Bucks currently have an active roster charge of just under $183M with only ten players under contract, which makes them a virtual lock to exceed the $189M 2nd Apron, barring some straight salary-dumping maneuvers.
Bottom Line:
The full list of restrictions faced by a team operating above the second apron of the luxury tax can be found here. Milwaukee’s only means of adding players in free agency is likely to be via minimum-salary contracts.
Organizational Direction:
The Bucks are as all-in as it gets, as all four of their core pieces are in their 30s, with Giannis Antetokounmpo the only one younger than 33. Milwaukee also has very little in the way of financial flexibility or draft capital available to trade, so their team build is almost entirely maxed out.
2023-24 was a disaster for the Bucks, as the team struggled with defense and depth, Adrian Griffin was fired halfway through his first season at the helm, and Giannis Antetokounmpo’s calf injury prevented their postseason hopes from ever getting off the ground. Milwaukee’s high-end talent deserves a legitimate chance to gel together and make a run, and it’s possible that the top-level outcome for this team remains a championship season. However, it’s also clear that they desperately need more talent and better-fitting pieces around their stars, both to help them survive the regular season, and to properly match up with other contenders once they reach the playoffs.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Find a viable fifth member of the closing lineup on the trade market
While Malik Beasley was a valuable regular season contributor for the ‘23-24 Bucks as their starting shooting guard, it’s also telling that he almost completely fell out of Doc Rivers’ rotation in favor of 35-year-old Patrick Beverley come playoff time. Milwaukee signed Beasley in the 2023 offseason to a minimum-salary contract, and given their current financial situation, their only way to replace him in free agency would be with another player making the minimum. That’s not going to produce a viable starter/closer for a team that hopes to win the championship, which is why Milwaukee’s better bet is to head to the trade market for a wing.
Between Bobby Portis ($12.5M) and Pat Connaughton ($9.4M), Milwaukee has about $22M in reasonable matching salary to utilize in a trade. However, it is worth noting that neither player is on an expiring deal, as both have player options for the ‘25-26 season. Additionally, because the Bucks project to be over the second apron, they cannot take back a dollar more than the combined sum of Portis’ and Connaughton’s contracts, should they aggregate the two players together in a deal.
Milwaukee is also strapped for draft capital, but at the time of the 2024 draft, they will be able to trade two first-rounders: The #23 overall selection this year, and their 2031 pick. Would an unprotected pick in 2031, as well as Portis, be enough for Chicago to move Alex Caruso to their Central division rivals? Caruso’s versatile perimeter defense would be a perfect fit for Milwaukee’s backcourt, but if he were actually made available, another contender could surely beat Milwaukee’s best offer, which is a problem they are likely to run into on just about every player who would truly make an impact on their team next season.
2) Scour the available avenues for players who can provide some level of both defense and shooting
Even if the Bucks are able to swing a deal for a Caruso-level player, they still need to replenish their bench with viable depth, particularly if they lose Portis in said deal. Milwaukee should be able to do better with the minimum than most teams, given their theoretical contender status and the playing time they have to offer, but they’d still be shopping amongst players who are available for cheap for a reason. Resigning Beasley would at least help them get through the regular season, and the same is probably true for Beverley. Lonnie Walker IV and Eric Gordon are a couple external options who might be small upgrades, but Walker IV has a history of knee issues, and Gordon might be difficult to pry from Phoenix. The front court pickings are even slimmer. Thomas Bryant’s shooting fits next to Giannis, but he’s an awful defender. Marcus Morris is probably washed but might be worth a look, and the same is probably true for Reggie Bullock. It’s not an inspiring list of names, but a top-heavy roster is the cost of consistently drafting poorly and then also trading away picks for stars.