Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
Miami’s Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $207M
Practical Cap Space: $-58M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $-30M
Possible Financial Avenues:
Even if Caleb Martin declines his $7M player option (as expected), Miami’s active roster charge would still be right at the $171M tax line with just 10 players under contract. Barring a pure-salary dumping maneuver, the Heat are going to be a taxpaying team in ‘24-25, and they could even get close to the second apron if they get aggressive to bring back key free agents like Martin and Haywood Highsmith.
Bottom Line:
Given Miami’s spending history as a team that’s comfortable paying the tax, but not willing to throw all caution to the wind, they seem like to stay below the second apron line of $189M. As a result, they will likely have the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception as their only avenue (other than minimum contracts) to spend on external free agents.
Organizational Direction:
The Heat have been stuck in a strange limbo for a couple seasons now, as despite being a pretty obviously mediocre regular season team, the presence of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Erik Spoelstra has given them an elevated postseason ceiling. However, with the recent news that Miami and Jimmy Butler have agreed to table extension talks as he enters his age-35 season, it does seem like changes could be afoot within the organization.
With bloated contracts for Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson on the books, and last season’s ill-fated trade deadline acquisition of Terry Rozier, Miami doesn’t appear to be a championship contender, but they’re also too financially constrained to make significant upgrades. The Heat are as good at developing above-average role players as any team in the league, but after losing Max Strus and Gabe Vincent last summer, they now appear likely to lose at least one of Caleb Martin or Haywood Highsmith this offseason. It’s possible that Pat Riley and the Miami front office have a trick up their sleeve and a master plan to acquire the type of additional star power that would be necessary to elevate this roster, but given their limited tradeable draft capital, that seems unlikely. It’s a move that could easily come during the season, but it does seem like trading Butler and re-centering the team on a younger timeline around Adebayo is the most likely end result for this iteration of the Heat.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Explore the trade market for Jimmy Butler
The most recent reporting on the Jimmy Butler front indicates that Butler will not seek an extension with the team (which they weren’t offering anyway), but wants to remain in Miami and is content playing out the season without a new deal. However, just because Butler has decided not to agitate his way out the door doesn’t mean that the Heat shouldn’t be quietly shopping their star. While Butler has a player option for the ‘25-26 season, it seems like his plan is to show he’s still an All-NBA caliber player next season, and then opt out in search of a longer term deal. If the Heat don’t plan on extending Butler into his late-30s, they should be looking to collect what they can for him now, as it’s not realistic to think this team, as currently constructed, can make a real push for a championship next season.
If the Sixers strike out on Paul George in free agency, pivoting their efforts to Butler seems like a logical move. Philly’s ability to simply take Butler into their cap space without sending any money back in return could be a huge boon for the Heat, as they would immediately clear up their books, while also receiving draft capital from the Sixers in return. If it’s not Philadelphia, it’s not quite as clear who might be out there as a Butler suitor. If the Clippers lose George, would they be open to a deal? What about the Warriors, who have been rumored as a suitor for George, would they be seeking a different move for a win-now wing? I’m not saying that Miami should just dump Butler for any old return, but they should at least be doing the due diligence, given where they are in the team building cycle.