Offseason Primer: Memphis Grizzlies
Current Roster Outlook (*Excluding two-way contracts*)
Cap Outlook: (*All cap projections courtesy of Spotrac*)
2024-2025 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $141M
Luxury Tax Line: $171M
Luxury Tax 1st Apron Maximum: $178M
Luxury Tax 2nd Apron Maximum: $189M
Memphis’ Total Cap Allocations (Active Roster Salary Commitments + Cap Holds): $187M
Practical Cap Space: $-45M
Maximum Possible Cap Space (All options declined, cap holds renounced and exceptions waived): $-20M
Possible Financial Avenues:
With ~$115M committed to the quartet of Ja Morant/Desmond Bane/Jaren Jackson/Marcus Smart, Memphis is a lock to operate above the $141M salary cap line. The real intrigue revolves around the $171M tax line, as this is a small-market organization that has typically shied away from making luxury tax payments. The Grizz could chop their current active roster total of ~$173M down to ~$159M by declining Luke Kennard’s team option, but Memphis has incentive to keep him around, both due to his shooting off the bench and his ability to function as matching salary in a trade. Even if they remove Kennard from the books, Memphis still needs to find a starting center: I’m finding it hard to believe they’ll be able to duck the tax if they want to rejoin the ranks of the competitive in the West.
Bottom Line:
The Grizzlies are likely to be (barely) over the luxury tax line of $171M, meaning that any impact additions they want to make are going to have to come via the draft, the trade market, or the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception.
Organizational Direction:
The ‘23-24 season was a forgettable one in Memphis. Ja Morant barely played as a result of suspension and then a season-ending shoulder injury, and both Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart dealt with significant injury issues of their own. The Grizzlies’ offense was absolutely putrid, and they basically never played meaningful basketball after the first few weeks of the season as a result.
With the core of Morant/Bane/Jackson Jr. presumably back to full health, Memphis has the type of young, top-end talent under contract that should keep them competitive for a long time. However, it’s also worth noting that high-quality depth was a huge driver of the team’s back-to-back 50+ win seasons in ‘21-22 and ‘22-23. The Grizzlies have seen key veterans like Steven Adams, Tyus Jones, Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks and De’Anthony Melton all depart in recent seasons, and they haven’t done an adequate job of replacing them. I fully expect Memphis’ young trio of stars to propel them to the playoffs in ‘24-25, but they are separated from championship contention by more than just health and availability. The Grizzlies need to be aggressive and proactive about infusing their roster with more talent now, while their window remains open.
Offseason Checklist:
1) Acquire a starting center
The ideal closing lineup for Memphis against most teams probably features Jaren Jackson Jr. at center, as his ability to simultaneously space the floor on offense and protect the rim on defense makes him the ideal big man in the modern NBA. However, there are multiple reasons why adding a starting-caliber center to pair next to him should still be a priority for the Grizz.
First off is Jackson Jr.’s shaky health record: Memphis would do well to protect him from the physical pounding of playing the five full-time throughout the regular season. Secondly, Jackson Jr. is a capable roller and even better popper, but some of Ja Morant’s most successful offensive moments have come when he plays out of ball screen actions with a true bruiser like Steven Adams who can clear out the lane and dominate the offensive glass. Finally, and most importantly, while Memphis’ defense is good with Jackson Jr. at center, their true moments of brilliance often come when they have the dual rim protection that pairing him with another big provides. This might be especially true if they have their sights set on taking down Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, as Minnesota proved this season that dual-big lineups might be the best way to mitigate what the Joker brings to the table.
Unfortunately for the Grizzlies, the path to acquiring an impactful big is not particularly clear. Given their very limited spending power, their best hope on the free agent market might be a guy available for cheap like Andre Drummond, who would definitely help them in the regular season, but has some significant flaws come playoff time. It’s possible that they can find the long-term answer with the #9 pick in the upcoming draft, but again, that’s unlikely to be a true solution in the 2025 postseason. That leaves the trade market, where the Grizzlies have palatable matching salary in Luke Kennard ($14.7M) and Ziaire Williams ($6.1M), and all their future first-round picks to work with. Some speculative targets that might be available for varying levels of asset cost include: Mitchell Robinson, Jarrett Allen, Isaiah Stewart, Wendell Carter Jr., Clint Capela, Mark Williams and Robert Williams III.
2) Improve the overall depth
Maybe the trickiest part of the Grizzlies’ crusade for a center is that they also need to save some bullets to upgrade their bench, especially if they trade away Kennard. Brandon Clarke is probably the only reserve you feel great about being part of their playoff rotation, although both Vince Williams Jr. and G.G. Jackson showed some encouraging flashes while no one was watching this past season. The last time we saw Memphis in a playoff series, their complete lack of viable bench shooting doomed them against the Lakers. They also could really use some stability at backup point guard, given Morant’s lengthy injury history.
The Grizz might be able to do better than most on the minimum market, given that they have playing time to offer on a competitive team, but getting players to choose Memphis over more glamorous markets has traditionally been a challenge. Could they entice guys like Lonnie Walker IV and Aaron Holiday to join up for cheap? It’s possible, but either way, Memphis needs to do well with their low-cost additions, as they might end up being the difference in their ‘24-25 season.